The Culture Report: Trade Thoughts, Statistical Trends & is Bam Back?
Quick thoughts on Fox/Ingram rumours, a look at a few team stats & comparing Bam's shooting % now to the start of the season
Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. Following that is a Heat Check to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, where I discuss the current state of the team and any trends & worthy topics to briefly go through. Before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.
This is a bit of a big one. We had three games this week against the Brooklyn Nets, Orlando Magic, and Cleveland Cavaliers, where we saw Tyler Herro again carrying the offensive load in the first two games. But we also saw the Heat struggle offensively against the double bigs against the Cavaliers.
Moving on from the games, we touch on the latest trade rumors and why the Heat shouldn’t look to make any kind of big splash for the top players available. There have also been a few noteworthy changes in a few key stats for the Heat — a significant drop off in ORB% and opponent TOV%. Finally, we look at some encouraging stats for Adebayo, at least on the surface.
What’s Been Heating Up
We’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the game. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.
Stats for the week:
Offensive Rating: 110.2
Defensive Rating: 112.2
eFG%: 56.6 vs 54.4
TOV%: 17.8 vs 12.2
ORB%: 23.1 vs 23.7
Free throw rate: 19.9 vs 15.6
Players stats:
106-97 WIN vs Brooklyn Nets
A muddy game. It’s one of those games where the Heat had a higher 3pt% than their FG%. They shot 13/28(46.4%) from 3pt, but 22/51(43.1%) from 2pt. Whenever that happens, it’s your usual game in the mud where teams struggle to score. That was almost the case for the Nets, too, where they shot 16/40(40.0%) from 2pt and 14/40(35.0%) from 3pt.
The shooting alone for both teams inside the arc was bad, but then you also had a combined 36 turnovers being committed. That adds to the mud.
That’s why, throughout the game, it was a relatively close game, with the Heat a times making a push for a double-digit lead, but it was never out of reach until the end of the third.
Fortunately for the Heat, they had more firepower to make the push with Tyler Herro leading the way with 25 points on 5/8 2pt, 3/6 3pt, and 6/6 ft with 8 assists. He had a handful of solid drives in isolation and even when he didn’t score, he had four assists coming out of those drives. He led the team in shots made and attempts.
There was also a good bounce-back game from Nikola Jovic who stuffed the stat sheet with 17 points on 2/3 2pt, 3/4 3pt, 4/4 ft with 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 stocks. This was a solid game from him on both ends of the floor. In addition to that, there was much more production from the bench with Jaime Jaquez Jr and Terry Rozier combining for 25 points and 5 assists.
All of those little outbursts combined gave them just enough points to get out of the mud because, for the most part, the efficiency from 3pt and drawing a whole bunch of fouls meant they were efficient. They had 59.2% TS for the game, but it was dragged down because of a 22.4% TOV. If you only looked at the points per shot attempt, the points were scored.
But mostly, this game can be summarised as a poor offensive team going up against a decent defensive team. The Nets couldn’t score from anywhere — they shot 10/17 at the rim, 5/20 in the paint, and 1/3 in the mid-range. They did also make up some of that with the foul drawing and fast break points. They had a 29.1 free throw rate, which was the same as the Heats, but also had 20 FBPS(8 more than the Heat). That was enough to make this a game.
125-119 WIN vs Orlando Magic
This was a great win. The Heat were finally not the team experiencing a late double-digit lead being blown. The Heat found themselves down at one point in the fourth and they ended up coming all the way back and force two overtimes to win in the end. The games against the Magic are rarely easy.
This was an all-around effort, getting contributions from literally everyone on both ends of the floor. They got hit a couple of times by the Magic in transition, which was a big reason why the Magic were in the lead in the first place, but they responded each time.
We start with Herro, again being able to get his and still contribute despite a poor shooting game from deep. He finished with 30 points on 8/13 2pt, 4/15 3pt, 2/3 ft with 12 assists and 8 rebounds — a near triple double for him. Eight of those assists came in the second half and overtime.
In the first half, he was doing his thing as the scorer inside the arc and looked comfortable doing so. Unfortunately, he did look like he tweaked something on a drive and it changed his game later. That’s where he did take more 3s then, but he also made up for it by still constantly making the right pass, especially down the stretch.
Adebayo had himself a bounce-back game and this was needed. He finished with, also a near triple-double, 26 points on 10/15 shooting, 6/8 ft with 9 assists, and 10 rebounds.
His finishing at the rim was a big reason why they generated points in over time. Four of his six makes at the rim came in overtime. And he still gave you nine assists being the hub up top, in the post, or on the short roll — he was facilitating in different ways.
There was also the other big that had just as good of a game, in terms of finishing plays he needed to finish. Ware had another highly efficient outing with 19 points on 3/4 2pt, 4/4 3pt, and 1/2 ft.
Did his job. Finish lobs and make 3s. What a nice combination.
But it was from the fourth that this team showed up on both ends. They outscored the Magic 46-31 from the start of the fourth. That is a 117.9 ORTG and 77.5 DRTG. That was sparked by another lineup change and closing out the game with Herro, Robinson, Jovic, Ware, and Bam. It was that five did it on both ends.
On offense, it was Robinson with a couple of 3s, Adebayo’s play finishing, and plenty of good reads from Herro and Jovic. Look at these double PNRs with Herro-Adebayo-Ware, which resulted in two open rolls to the rim. Or how about this Jovic-Ware connection that got a lob!
Equally as important was the defense. The Magic couldn’t score, period. They shot 9/18 2pt and 1/12 from 3pt. Didn’t get to the line outside of one and-one. Add six turnovers and only two offensive rebounds. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero combined for 8 points on 18 shots. Watch how tough and stagnant everything was:
I loved the ending of the game. This five did it all and managed it to crawl back after being down 12 points with over six minutes left.
106-126 LOSS vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Not a great game on either end of the floor. It was a poor showing offensively, and a lot of that was on the Cavaliers taking everything away. And defensively, there was absolutely no effort to make anything more difficult for them. The Heat ended up having a 131.6 DRTG
The Cavaliers didn’t even shoot the ball well. They only went 13/42(31%), but still somehow ended up shooting 54% from the floor. They had 68 points in the paint. 68.
They shot 34/46 in the paint. That’s 74%. That’s hilariously bad and it was bad all around. It was giving up a bunch of cuts, putbacks, and easy opportunistic shots. But it was also the guards and wings that were doing whatever they wanted. Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, and Tristian Thompson excluded, the Cavaliers shot 18/25 in the paint, also going perfect 9/9 at the rim.
They were also led by Donovan Mitchell, who was doing his thing as well as he could’ve done. He looked like he was on a mission, scoring 34 points on 9/12 2pt, 5/11 3pt, and 1/1 ft with 6 assists. This was also without Darius Garland:
On the other end, the Heat couldn’t get much going and that’s also credit to the Cavaliers. Just look at this starting possession for the Heat where they tried multiple actions on either side of the floor and couldn’t get anything going.
Their defense took the paint away completely. Only 38 points there. They did convert almost everything, going 9/10 at the rim and 10/16 outside of the restricted area, but 26 attempts in the paint total were almost the same as the Cavaliers at the rim.
A lot of that had to do with the Cavaliers ignoring and helping off both Ware and Adebayo. The paint was packed. There was little room to get into the paint. The defensive activity was all over the place, making the kickouts less effective than usual. It was a very good defensive performance.
Then you also had Herro struggling to get his too, only finishing with 22 points on 5/10 2pt and 4/10 3pt with 6 assists. There wasn’t anywhere else to get the offense.
But that was still somehow the second worst issue. The defense is how they lost the game. They are lucky that the Cavaliers had a bad shooting night.
Things that caught my eye
Additional thoughts, stats & takeaways from these games only. All links are clips on Twitter
Herro had a decent game attacking in isolation against the Nets. He had 4 solid drives that, at times, left the ender not realizing he was gone. He had another solid one against the Magic, too. Related to that, he had a nice isolation against Banchero on the switch, where he hit him with a few moves and got to his spot in the paint
I do have some general questions about Jaquez’s shot selection & at times being too aggressive, but then you also see plays like these where he’s able to get to the rim at will. This is still pretty damn good
Duncan’s growth can never get old. Some said that the defense would figure him out this year and a lot of the extra moves he was doing was because it was new. But he still does so much more than just shoot. He will come off a handoff and get to the rim like here. He can attack and put the ball down in many ways either off a PNR, off a curl or off the catch. He will even add some passing where he can reject the screen, make a kick, and relocate for a 3pt. I know he missed this dunk, but this move is so nice
Against the Magic, the Heat made 4 3s and took 12 3s out of 42 shots in the first half, but in the second half, they made 10 and took 24 out of 36 shots. That’s a 28% 3pt rate versus 66%
The Cavaliers had 11 more true shooting attempts. That was part of the issue defensively. Giving up second chance points and not taking their possessions elsewhere
The Heat were -13 in 19 minutes with both Adebayo-Ware on. They scored 41 points on 36 possessions and gave up 54 on 37
The Cavaliers also only had a 7.4% TOV. That ties for the third lowest for the Heat’s opponent this season
This is what we need more from Adebayo. It’s attacking a lot more in transition.
I like this simple double drag screen with Herro-Jovic-Adebayo.
My very real but unofficial stat is that Adebayo has never missed a shot when he attacks baseline. His isolations 99/100 times go to the paint and it’s for the fade. But that 1/100 going baseline, it’s the most effective weapon in the league
You can see the impact Ware has in these PNRs with Herro. When Herro goes to attack, he either has the clean drive because Goga doesn’t want to come off his roll, opening up the lob. Or there’s a lane to attack because Carter Jr has to respect the pop
Just keeping a note of this habit because it has been showing up plenty, but Ware has got a bit of a tendency that looks like hunting for blocks. That showed up more against the Cavaliers because it cost them on the boards. Ware got out of position for no reason to jump to get the block when a contest would do just fine
This was the issue with the Heat’s offense. Look at Allen ignoring Ware here. That makes the drive more difficult for Herro. You also have that with Mobley helping off Adebayo. All of that leads to the paint being packed like this. And it makes spacing concerns show up a lot more because what are you meant to do with either Ware or Adebayo getting in the way, too
We got more inverted PNRs with Adebayo-Robinson!
Check these two plays. They both have to do with either Herro/Robinson running a PNR with Ware and Adebayo off-ball. Here’s the first one, where Ware mistimed the lob. It’s still a process to learn to make those reads. But he learns quickly because this happened again against the Cavaliers here! All it took was one game to fix that read
Something has to change with Adebayo’s shot selection and making better reads. There’s this early jumper against the Nets for no reason. It’s also his reads on the rolls. Take this one where he gets the ball deep in the paint, the defense has rotated and his immediate thought is for the jumper, but he has Ware cutting for the lob. He needs to make that pass. There was also this one against the Cavaliers(also note Allen helping off), where he gets the pocket pass and has a wide open kick to Haywood. This needs to be cleaned up
Heat Check
Here is where I give a “heat” check on the team through a weekly ramble that’s me simply ranting about the Heat and a handful of other newsworthy topics that occurred throughout the week or trends to talk about. This can also be a quick, brief discussion on multiple smaller topics that should be noted for a deeper look at in the future.
Another busy week filled with rumors, reports, and even some federal investigations. I swear at this point, there’s more off-court news than anything happening on the court.
That’s also where we’re going to start. There is still way too much smoke everywhere. Too many reports. Too many tweets. Too many trade packages. And it seems like everything is still so fluid that anything can happen.
The biggest development was everything surrounding De’Aaron Fox. Who would’ve thought that he was going to be available by this deadline? That, of course, meant there are going to be talks about him getting to Miami.
I don’t think that is a realistic scenario and it’s more to do with the Heat’s lack of assets to make a competitive offer compared to the field. I also wouldn’t want that trade to happen if it was possible.
I had some initial thoughts on that and the Heat shouldn’t be looking to trade for Fox:
Yesterday, it also came out with something to do with Brandon Ingram. And again, I will somewhat strongly be opposed to that trade too(though with Ingram, I’m more open to that because of his expiring contract).
The main reason for such reluctance to trade for either player is why is there a need to accelerate anything. Neither Ingram nor Fox are players that you can build around, nor are the Heat in a position where those players can put them over a hump. They are missing the clear number one guy, so what’s the point in using any of their assets for such deals?
There have been many teams that looked to cash in some of their chips a couple of years too soon for no reason and it left them in a worse spot than before they cashed in those chips. Take the Hawks and Pelicans with Murray.
With the Heat, they have two very good players but neither is a clear top 15 player in the league that can be the best on a contending team. There are contract issues and potential extensions kicking in. There’s a poor roster construction issue, where there aren’t many two-way players on the team. Some of the team is still too young.
I don’t see that as a position to make those moves for a win-now player who’s also looking to get paid. If the goal is to extend either one, you’re putting yourself in a situation where Ingram/Fox, Adebayo, and Herro are your three most expensive players on locked-up deals. That’s not good roster construction at all.
THIS year alone should just be left without any moves like that. The only move is trading away Butler. I don’t care for what the package is as long as it’s not players on long deals(that aren’t at least young and could grow with the core). The goal for the Butler return shouldn’t to be somehow flip things and get expensive players.
I don’t mind the staying competitive route as long as there is no tying themselves up into anything. I have had criticisms about their constant fixation on flexibility, but that was when the circumstances of the team were different. Then they should’ve been competing. Flexibility shouldn’t have been a priority. It should be now.
It should be looking at what you even have as the core and continue to add players to it. It’s adding more talent with a way higher upside that doesn’t have to constantly overachieve. It’s looking to add talent that can have a higher ceiling than just an all-star. It’s adding more two-way athletes. It’s literally just about getting more talent. That’s the stage that they’re in.
I really hope that by next week’s Culture Report, we’ll be done with everything surrounding trades and can just get on with basketball.
As far as basketball talk, the Heat did go 2-1 this week. It was going up against two of the worst offensive teams, which made both instances a clear game. Then they faced the Cavaliers, which was when they just got outcompeted.
Things are looking up, though, if the goal is looking at the individual players. I’ve been loving Ware’s growth. He is looking better each game and there are little plays he improves in or makes better decisions each time he’s in the same situation.
Adebayo and Herro are doing their thing. Their game has relatively been the same. Consistency. That in itself is a positive. There aren’t as many high highs or low lows.
There are some alarms coming up on Jaquez, but it’s still nothing to overreact, his sophomore season hasn’t gone the way I expected it to — something to keep an eye on.
Rozier. He’s one of the players that I also don’t really want to see past the deadline.
They do have a relatively easy stretch, though it’s four straight games on the road. They are right there fighting for the top six seed and can easily be in that range.
Herro is an All-Star
So, it was announced on Thursday that Herro has made his first All-Star game. It is now official. This was a well-deserved accomplishment. He now joins 526 other players in NBA history to be selected for at least one All-Star. Out of his own draft class, he joins Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, and Darius Garland.
If you don’t think he had much of a case or he got in over someone else, I did go through his season to see if he has played like an All-Star this year:
Whether you prefer x player over him, it doesn’t change the fact that his play has been at that level. Considering the circumstances of this season and how the last couple of years have played out in his career, this was a pretty good turnaround.
Before, there were a lot more questions about his play, such as his lack of efficiency, how he went about his shot diet, and some of the playmaking concerns. All of that has been addressed to the point where if this is the Herro you’re going to get from now on, it’s a much better player to have on your team.
In the past few seasons, in my player tier rankings, he was always in that third-ish tier grouped with other high-volume scorers who were mostly inefficient and at best above-average passers. Based on this season alone, I would’ve bumped him.
Going forward, this jump and growth does make you rethink some of the decisions about the core when(if) they pivot into that rebuild. This makes things a bit easier to think about. Hopefully, this growth will continue and these improvements are here to stay.
Some statistical trends on both ends of the floor
The Heat have made or have seen some drastic changes in different aspects of the game. There has been a significant difference in how much they rebound, get to the line, or force turnovers. Some of the stats have completely flipped, not only compared to this season but also what the Heat have been known for in the last few seasons.
Let’s go through it one by one.
The biggest difference is the offensive rebounding. That has never been a thing they relied on or looked to prioritize, but it’s never been at the bottom of the league by a good margin bad.
Per CTG, they are 27th in ORB% with 24.9%(the last few seasons were at 24.5%, 26.2%, 26.3%, 22.4%, and 24.0%). But that has also only gotten worse by time:
October(4 games): 23.8%(would rank 29th for the season)
November(13): 27.4%(16th)
December(13): 25.3%(24th)
January(16): 22.5%(29th)
Just in January alone, they had seven games of under 20%. Compare that to two seasons ago, it was 18 for the whole season(22% of games) but now 43% of their games in January, they didn’t care to rebound offensively.
That also coincides with their drop-off in second-chance points. They averaged 12.0 and 12.6 per 100 poss in November and December, but that dropped to 10.7 this month.
Staying on the offense, they also saw a drop off in free throw rate(makes sense with no Butler). Up until December 31st, they were seventh in FTr with 21.3. Since January 1st, they’re 24th with 17.1. A big drop-off.
This is where not having Butler will make a significant difference. With Butler on, they averaged 24.2 FTA per 100, which drops to 20.9 without him. Even if you include Herro on the court but in games Butler didn’t play, it’s at 20.8. That’s literally the difference between the first and the 26th. That’s the free-throw merchant effect.
On the defensive end, we’ve seen a big drop-off in forcing turnovers. This is similar to the ORB% where it’s unusual for the Heat. They had 16.3%, 15.4%, and 15.6% opp TOV% in 2021-2023, but 14.1% and 14.2% in these two seasons. They were top four in those three seasons and that dropped to 20th this year.
Similar to the ORB%, this has been trending down to worse and worse levels. Up until December 31st, they were 10th with 15.5%. Doing exactly what they had always done. But since January 1st, it’s all the way down to 29th at 11.6%.
That is not a normal drop-off. That’s not something that isn’t a deliberate decision to do so. Numbers will fluctuate but this kind of decline feels like it was a choice made by the coaching staff. In January, they already had six games with less than 10% TOV and only three with higher than 15%. Before the new year, they had one game below 10% and 12 above 15%.
This also means that their points off TOV also have declined going from 17.6 → 19.1 → 19.2 → 12.9 per 100 by month.
And those few stats combined are likely the reason why the offense has dropped off a lot. They lose out on roughly 5-7pts per 100 because they get to the line less, get fewer seconds chance points, and fewer points off turnovers. The possession battle is kicking their ass. They have also never been a high eFG% team butare boosted by the free throws upping their efficiency.
The fact that these are at such extremes compared to what they usually do is something to keep an eye on.
Bam Back?
I was looking at some stats for Adebayo in the recent stretch and some encouraging(depending on how you look at it) stats came out. Here are Adebayo’s shooting stats in the first 22 games and the last 23 games:
Not only are things trending up to his usual standards, but some areas are even better.
He went back from shooting around 47% to 53% from inside the arc. That’s what he shot last year and just ~1% lower than 2023. His finishing at the rim jumped as he does when he goes for lobs. I tweeted about his poor finishing to start the season and he answered it by shooting 77%, which is an absurd level of finishing.
More importantly, his shooting around the paint is back. He’s now shooting 47% within 4-14ft, which is basically what he was doing the last two years where it was a career high. He got his touch back. He’s shooting 46% in the paint, 48% within 8-16ft, and 51% within 10-14ft. His floating shots are back to around 57%. That’s the Adebayo that was killing it in that area last year.
Another encouraging point is that the mid-range bounced back too. He’s shooting 47% on pull-ups beyond 10ft! He’s 46% on 2-point jump shots and 43% in the mid-range. That’s as elite for him as it’s ever been.
He’s finally making shots and yet, he still only has 50.2% eFG and 54.5% TS on 23.1% usage. He’s still wildly inefficient not even considering his role. This “improvement” would still easily rank the lowest in his career. That’s not a sign of encouragement. He addressed the main issue from this season and it hasn’t changed much.
That’s because of the frequency of his shots in areas. He is shooting 77% at the rim but only 22% of his shots come within 4ft. 63% come beyond 4ft inside the arc. That’s higher than what it was last year. He is still trending downward in terms of his rim pressure. He has taken 66 shots in the restricted area, 129 in the paint, and 49 in the mid-range. He has taken 127 2-point jump shots compared to 41 layups, 36 dunks, and 23 alley-oops. That’s still a concerning part of his game.
That’s why his impact metrics continue to look like this:
It’s great that he’s back to shooting in his normal range. As stated previously, players don’t forget how to shoot. This can easily have been a slump in a short sample size. But that shooting was always also a band-aid to the real issue with his game over the years. We are now just back to square one.
The Heatle Things
To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stats, lineups, plays, actions, or anything that I found fun, as well as compiling some other content that I found interesting.
Surprisingly and concerningly, Adebayo is one of the worst players in transition. He’s in the 4th percentile, scoring 0.79 points per 1.9 possession(11.1% of his offense) and is shooting 41.8%. That’s atrocious, especially for a player like him. He’s never been elite either, but he has consistently hovered around 1.1 points and shot over 60% in each of the last few seasons
Speaking of transition, the Heat have been horrid in defending in transition. They allow 1.16 points per poss, which is the 27th. On the other hand, they do rank third in frequency, thus actually allowing sixth-fewest points per game. They will not defend once in transition, but they do a good job of limiting it
Staying on that point, they have allowed 17.1 fastbreak points in January compared to ~14 in Oct-Nov. That’s the difference between 27th and 6-10 range. Transitions and fastbreaks have hurt the team a lot
I was playing about on PBP Stats and saw you can have a summary of team stats by leverage. Here’s a link to the definition of leverage. Essentially, it’s another way of looking at “clutch” stats using different qualifiers and variables. In high and very high leverage minutes, the Heat have had 177 offensive and defensive possessions. They have a 105.4 ORTG and 116.4 DRTG. They are 24th on offense, 23rd on defense and 26th in net
Here’s a thread by Brady Hawk on the Jovic-Adebayo-Ware lineups!
I was checking some handoff stats for Herro and amongst 18 players with at least 2 possessions, he’s third with 1.19 in PPP. That’s elite. But also made me curious about the handoff god, also known as, Duncan Robinson. In 2020, he scored 1.38! That is the highest efficiency out of anyone using at least 2 possessions since the data has been tracked. He has the highest efficiency to date
Adebayo-Ware lineups have reached over 100 minutes. They have a +13.6 net with a 109.9 ORTG(46% 2pt, 41% 3pt) and a 96.3 DRTG(51% 2pt, 26% 3pt). Still plenty of noise, particularly with the shooting for the opponent. It’s still also concerning that they have such poor offense shooting inside the arc and shooting so well from 3pt
Since January 1st, teams have been shooting 70.0% at the rim, but with 23.3% freq. For the season, that would rank 28th worst and 2nd best