A Deep Dive Into Bam Adebayo
A deep dive into Bam's career year on defense & some question marks on offense when it comes to efficiency
In the upcoming days, we’ll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. We’ll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like.
Bam Adebayo as always had one of the better seasons in general and a lot of that has to do with him simply being consistently a top 3 defender in the league. This was probably the year that he should’ve won DPOY because of how elite he usually has been but more so with how he was being used differently.
This season saw Adebayo in a different role on both ends of the floor(one was more successful than the other, though). Because of that, the amount of responsibilities that he had and still manages to be impactful was impressive, especially given the context of the team.
But at the same time, the direction with how he was being used on the offensive end and how that looked in that role was one of the main reasons why the Heat’s offense looked the way it did. We already saw this transition started last year with him being used more in on-ball roles, but this year, they dived into that even more.
This is another instance of a player developing and getting better individually, but they’re not getting better at the things that matter the most if they’re going to be used in that particular way. The things that Adebayo has added or has improved in, don’t necessarily result in efficient basketball that you could depend on having high usage.
As always, this year even move, there were more conversations with him moving to the “4”. Though, this year, there were potential signs towards the end that there may be something to look out for with the possibility of a 3-point shot. This conversation might get even louder for this season.
So, let’s go through the kind of season Adebayo had!
Let’s start with the defense. This whole thread from Couper Moorhead perfectly goes through every piece of stat that tells you so much about Adebayo’s impact on defense:
This is the summary of the main stats:
One of the main things that stood out this season for Adebayo and the team is how different of a scheme they were running compared to previous years. He was primarily a drop defender this year — he spent 53% of his time in drop and yet despite that, he still defended nearly 8 switches, shows, or blitzes. That would’ve been the highest by far compared to either Rudy Gobert or Victor Wembanyama.
That’s the kind of defender Adebayo is. That’s the king of versatility and what really makes him that good.
Every time it was said that he’s an elite switch defender, but he doesn’t do the big stuff on defense as well as others. Per Coup, at the end of February, he tweeted that Adebayo only allowed 0.92 pts per poss when not up to touch — just as good as any other 7fter.
What’s also funny is this:
Adebayo was having the same kind of defensive impact in two completely different schemes. He is going to provide immense impact as a switch defender where he’s able to prevent anyone from getting by. Or he could be asked to be a drop defender(with subpar guard play) and still be just as impactful.
That’s another point that’s important here. Who are Adebayo’s perimeter defenders? Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. Only Highsmith is a clear positive here in that role.
This honestly was arguably his best defensive season because of the versatility. There’s not a single role or matchup that you don’t at least feel comfortable with him taking.
Look at some of these games on defense from him:
This is him doing the usual big stuff on defense defending screens, being the help side defender and executing any extra help needed perfectly or casually defending Paolo Banchero for full possessions.
Or there’s this game against the Hornets.
How about the versatility he showed against the Rockets? They only allowed 11 shots at the rim.
This was probably one of the more impressive games because it was against Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. We know that the duo can hurt the Heat as they did in the finals. Adebayo did a damn good job defending Jokic as well as he could and still do everything else on the court to limit how good that 2-man action was. This is where his defense in drop was showing.
In the Cavaliers game, he made life hell for them because of the pick-and-roll versatility. It is a luxury to have a big that can play effective drop, then play higher up against certain players at different points… and then if they’re still comfortable have him blitz… and then if that’s still not good enough, let’s simply switch. The defense won’t know what is going to hit them at any point they run a pick-and-roll.
But this was my favorite. This was a do-or-die game and Adebayo came to play on that end. This is where his defensive skillset is seen perfectly. Whenever there are other defensive bigs that can switch, I wonder how many of them can outright start and end possessions on star level wing players on and off the ball. Adebayo was literally chasing DeRozan around off-ball screens, navigating pick-and-rolls, defending his drives, and that’s on top of doing everything else in the pick-and-rolls.
This was just the best defender in the league doing the best defender in the league type of stuff. That’s why the Heat’s defense was 111.7 with him on and 114.3 without him. That’s the difference between being second and 12th.
If there was anything to take away from this season from Adebayo is that he is a generational talent on defense. As long as he’s on the team, the Heat’s defense will never be a question. And to me, his impact through how elite he is at certain aspects, how he’s at least “good” in everything else, and how all of that translates to the playoffs, will always have him as one of the best players in the league. There are a small handful of players that can raise both the team’s floor and ceiling on defense and make roster construction easier as a result.
Now, getting to the offense, that’s where the questions are. Depending on what you took away from it or rather how you envision that development going forward determines how to feel about Adebayo on offense.
What this(and last year) has shown is that Adebayo isn’t a number one or number two on offense. He shouldn’t be the guy averaging near 15 shots per game or that amount of touches if those are the shots that he’s going to get in that way.
There is a reason why his offensive impact has been dropping in each season. According to his O-EPM in the last four years:
+1.7 → +1.0 → +0.9 → -0.5
He was a negative on offense and that isn’t surprising. That’s also not to say that he’s worse on offense. He definitely has improved and become a more all-around player on offense, but with the way he gets his offense with the kind of shot diet that he has, it’s not going to be as impactful.
The first thing is him being used a lot more in the post and in isolation:
Here are the percentage of his possessions as a post up over the years:
11.3% → 7.2% → 6.9% → 11.9% → 16.7% → 12.1% → 21.7%
And in isolation:
2.5% → 1.8% → 7.6% → 10.5% → 7.4% → 11.9% → 10.5%
In total he had 430pts on 162/336 out of either post-up or isolation this year. That’s 31% of his points or 33% of his FGA. The issue is the efficiency. He’s shooting 48.2% on those shots. If we do per possession, he scored 430 points on 436 possessions — that’s sub 1pt per possession. A team’s defense is going to be thrilled with that kind of offense in 2024.
In a vacuum, that is respectable. A near 50% shooter on those shots is a good thing. It’s a good thing that he has a shot that he’s comfortable with at a decent clip. But that’s only if the player is already getting efficient shots elsewhere. One of those has to be either rim pressure or elite 3pt shooting off the dribble — Adebayo has neither.
Here’s Adebayo’s rim rate since 2020:
54.7% → 41.7% → 44.6% → 35.7% → 30.5%
That has significantly been declining each season because he’s been going away from being used as a roll man, as a cutter, and whenever he is rolling, he’s rolling to stop and go for mid-range jumpers.
That tracks with his short mid-range and long mid-range frequency:
34.3% → 40.1% → 40.6% → 52.8% → 51.0%
9.2% → 17.1% → 14.0% → 10.4% → 14.3%
He’s shooting 43.6% on 543 attempts beyond 5ft with that being 53% of his shots. He’s also shooting 38.1% on 307 attempts beyond 10ft. That’s nearly 30% of his offense. That’s going to be an issue with efficiency and the team’s success on offense. A player cannot take nearly 15 shots per game with half of his offense being sub 45%. That’s a really good way of having an inefficient offense.
Are those shots needed or is it a counter to have? 100% yes. This is a good thing that Adebayo has developed. It’s effective that he’s not simply a roll man who can’t create for himself.
Per BBall-Index, amongst centers, some of the isolation stats:
But at the same time, his post-up stats aren’t as elite:
On the other hand, there’s also a reason he’s classed as a shot creator rather than a roll/cut big or anyone who is highly dependent on others. Adebayo is clearly above that role. The issue is that just because he can and is better compared to those players, it also shouldn’t mean that he should warrant those touches.
A lot of that has to do with his lack of rim pressure. Again compared to the role of normal bigs, he’s clearly above that. But compared to on-ball wings and bigs:
He doesn’t have that same impact. That 30% of his rim rate is because he routinely settles for worse shots because those are the shots that he can get.
These kinds of shots don’t happen as often as you’d want and this has been a pattern from last year where it doesn’t matter who’s guarding him.
He doesn’t have elite post work that he can punish anyone and get easy shots at the rim — in fact, that is probably one of his main weaknesses. He also doesn’t have a good enough handle to get by slower defenders with ease. There’s a reason why the only shots that he can easily get are those paint shots, floaters, push shots, or fadeaways — all of which, he’s “good” at but those shots aren’t good at volume through self-creation.
As fun as it looks on a highlight, or as much as people will say “nerds” ruined basketball because of it, math is going to math where relying on tough shots(or even open good shots) at 45% just won’t do much.
That’s exactly what we’ve seen with the Celtics. Adebayo was cooking both Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford with those shots, but it didn’t matter because the efficiency wasn’t as elite to punish them significantly. Even when it comes to other players and other teams, we’ve seen that same strategy against Kevin Durant — teams aren’t going to change their defense because of mid-range shots if that’s their shot diet.
The issue with Adebayo goes further because this shot diet didn’t just affect his self-creation, but also how he goes about his rolling. He doesn’t roll the same anymore. He’d rather go for those pull-up shots or spot up near the elbow.
That’s why his catch-and-shoot frequency from 2pt has been the highest at 14.6%. Adebayo is one of three players to take at least 2 C&S 2s — he’s also shooting 41.1% on them.
He’s hunting those shots out of the pick-and-roll too now. That’s why a lot of the times, those actions will end up being similar to if he simply got the ball himself and went up for a middy.
Out of 35 players with at least 2 possessions as a roll man, he’s shooting 51.5% eFG. That would rank 32nd. That was similar last year too. Compare that to 2021, where he was 4th in eFG as a roll man with 67.7%. That’s where he was rolling hard.
Spacing and context also matter here, but at the same time, did they have a better-supporting cast in 2021? I don’t think so.
This is why Adebayo has been less efficient and why that led him to be less impactful, not only for himself but for the team. Him as a roller was one of the main ways of generating rim pressure because that’s what he does.
Obviously, a lot of that can’t happen if the defense is packing the paint because the goal is then to stop Adebayo from getting those efficient looks. But at the same time, that’s also not a reason to settle for worse shots just because.
This then leads me to his passing ability. Adebayo is a great passer, but only for his role at a certain volume. I don’t think he’s at that level where you can comfortably run through him, especially if he’s doing the work as a self-creator.
Making reads on the move whether it’s rolling hard or on the short roll is a lot different than making reads in the post or in isolation.
One thing that has always stood out with Adebayo is that he hasn’t mastered the ability to be a scorer(that can create advantages consistently) and simultaneously be a passer. It feels like there is still a switch that needs to be hit to be most effective in one of those roles. If you want to maximize him as a passer, then he needs to be in that role specifically — take the playoffs against the Bucks where he was bringing up the ball. But if you ask him to be a scorer but also learn to make decisions on the go, then that’s when it becomes an issue.
The way I would put it is that he is a good passer, but not a great playmaker(at least outside of his typical role). That’s why the offense isn’t as flowing with him being used more in the self creation because a lot of the times, the possessions will end with him taking the shot.
This is also made worse if he’s not pressuring the rim because then those windows become harder to spot if the defense isn’t fully rotated.
There have definitely been flashes where he notices help coming from the top of the key and he whips a pass cross court. That’s definitely been improving. It’s all work in progress. But because it is a work in progress, he’s not there yet to make it a viable option — of course, team context put him in that position, though I still don’t think it should still happen but at the same time it is part of the needed development.
That’s why for the most part, he’s usually missing windows or making the passes late and that ends up stalling the offense because he makes a decision when the advantage is gone. Or he does look to be a scorer first where he does at times look to settle for a quick shot.
Here are his passing stats, per BBall-Index:
Not bad. But that’s compared to everyone where he is one of the better passers in the league. He’s definitely in the upper tier of the league.
Compared to bigs, it’s the same case:
But being used as a big to make plays is a lot different. This isn’t just making short roll reads. It’s making it off the dribble, vs doubles, on the short roll, in the post, and everything else. That will be the standard.
Because compared to on-ball wings and bigs:
That’s where the difference is seen. At the top and in these roles, margins matter even more. All of the split decisions that he can’t make is emphasized even more.
This is also how he looks compared to some other players:
That is a significant difference.
I would want to point out one noticeable difference and it’s how he handles doubles. He has been getting doubled the most in his career. Defense are starting to respect him… but that can also be because of a few reasons. It has felt that the defense double him or show extra help because he isn’t making the read.
That’s the Joel Embiid strategy from previous years. There was never a significant downside to send extra help or a double on Embiid because he wasn’t making those passes or will turn it over — that’s how it felt with Adebayo.
He will make the pass… but the pass will be a simple one made too quickly that is the easiest option for the defense to recover. That’s why the offense is how it is.
They look to go to him as the scoring option for him to create in the post or in isolation, he’ll either look to go for the inefficient look because the defense is also helping at the rim, he’s not making the skips consistently, so the possession ends with him. If the help comes, it’s a simple pass or kick that does nothing to the defense and now you’re against the clock.
That’s what needs to improve.
He needs to take significant steps in surveying the floor at a much quicker speed. I’m not sure if even he sees those windows often either, so that’s also the first step. Without that, it’s going to be a struggle running the offense through him in that way.
Finally, he also gave us a nice treat at the end with the 3s. That was very encouraging. It’s not something that I’m planning for already, but the simple fact that he is a great thing. That feels like the initial barrier that stopped him is now non-existent. He took the biggest step already.
But overall, that’s where all of his offense needs to improve in. His defense this year was 11 out of 10. His offense, though, had a lot of concerns and questions, even considering the team context and how he was being used.
He has shown flashes of being able to take guys off dribble, especially ones that are slower. That hasn’t been as consistent and instead the decision to prematurely go for those mid-range jumpers either in self creation or PNR was hurting. For the most part, that shouldn’t be in flashes if he’s matched with guys that he should beat.
So, where does that leave Adebayo for this season?
One thing I haven’t mentioned yet is the idea of having as the four with Kel’el Ware being drafted. This is something I’ve touched on already in much more depth here:
https://www.simplyballin.com/p/the-heat-report-summer-league-breakdowns
Because of how I don’t believe it’s going to be viable right away barring some massive changes, I don’t think it’s a reasonable thing to expect.
As of this moment, I think the expectation should be with Adebayo in a similar role. There may be spot minutes to see how that duo will work, but it won’t be for anything significant until proven otherwise.
The same goes for his 3pt shooting. That’s an “until proven otherwise”. That kind of change whether for the player or how the defense will treat them to the point it makes a difference, it’s one of those things that you will only know until you do. It’s tough to predict one way or the other and you simply need more evidence to make any other conclusion.
When it comes to how it stands right now, though. Defensively, I don’t see much difference. The only thing that may vary is the overall scheme based on what Erik Spoelstra will think. This year, he showed that he wants to play in a drop more — the better choice to save Adebayo and others. I’d expect that to be similar.
With the offense, I honestly don’t see that change either. The only way that changes is with Butler being more engaged and the whole offensive system is different.
There has been an emphasis in their offense going towards more post ups and isolation over handoffs. Unless that changes, without Butler eating up the touches, I don’t see a reason why there’d be any change with Adebayo. It does look like that’s the goal. It’s to keep giving him those reps and the freedom to look to expand his game.
But that can only happen if there are significant improvements in making his overall game more efficient. If it’s again going to be a third of his offense being self-created but he’s shooting 48%, then it’s going to be those games in the mud. And I’ll be getting called a hater and a nerd for saying those mid-range jumpers are hurting the team.
It all depends on that leap. If he’s able to make his handle better or get some better post moves, then it might be more viable. If he’s able to pressure the rim more and force the defense to react in a different way than just a double or pre-rotations, then that could make a bigger difference.
But one thing that I do want to see is regardless of what Butler does or what the team does. He should limit those rolls that lead to standstill mid-range shots. That PNR is otherwise the same thing. The only thing that will change is you’re running more offense that’s inefficient. That is more doable to change. We’ve seen him be more effective as a roller and maybe with Rozier that will help.
If there’s anything that I’d love to see is that growth as a passer. He’s already seen the most doubles in his career. He now needs to take those steps to capitalize on them better.
To wrap up, there are clear pathways for him to develop that aren’t out of the realm of possibilities. Those improvements aren’t bound by things that he simply won’t be able to do. I don’t see many obstacles that are there because of physical limitations. If that doesn’t change, then the way he’s used will have to.