A Deep Dive into Duncan Robinson for the 2025 Season
A deep dive into Robinson's season & how he transformed his game
In the upcoming days, we’ll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. We’ll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like.
What a year it’s been for Duncan Robinson. It all started in the 2023 playoffs where he was given more opportunities after a rough and disappointing regular season. That felt like that was where the corner was turned. This felt like watching prime Duncan getting his confidence back — he shot 44.2% on over 13 3s per 100 possession. But the shooting bouncing back was only one thing, the most important aspect was him showing more than that.
In November, I talked about all of that in “The Evolution of Duncan Robinson, From Specialist to a Hooper” and I went through all of the changes and improvements that he made. Everything that he worked on made him a completely different player and as a result, has made him a much more important to the team.
The way he did it is by expanding his game. I wouldn’t call Robinson fully a specialist anymore. He has added counters to his game. The possessions doesn’t have to end with just him taking a 3pt shot. He improved in everything that he was doing well in previous seasons and added to it.
So, let’s go through the much improved season that he just had and how that is going to be key going forward!
The first thing that stands out is the tracking stats for his usage.
Here are his touches per 36 minutes(since 2020)
41.0 → 44.3 → 47.6 → 50.5 → 49.8
Here’s his average seconds per touch:
1.4 → 1.64 → 1.57 → 1.73 → 2.1
Here’s his average dribble per touch:
0.42 → 0.63 → 0.59 → 0.82 → 1.27
He’s been given more freedom to do something with the ball. He has the ball longer in his hands and he’s been dribbling a lot more. Compared to his best previous season in 2020, he’s almost tripled the amount of times he’s been handling the ball.
Let’s see how the extra touches and different usage translated because it wasn’t just more 3s.
He actually had the lowest 3pt rate of his career:
88.2% → 85.5% → 85.9% → 81.0% → 70.1%
That’s a significant difference. Over the last three years, these were some of the leaders in 3pt rate(80% or higher):
Sam Merrill: 89.9%
Garrison Mathews: 85.5%
Davis Bertans: 85.3%
Caleb Houstan: 84.8%
Sam Hauser: 84.3%
Reggie Bullock: 81.3%
And these are the players that had around 70%:
Malik Beasley: 73.2%
Quentin Grimes: 71.7%
Max Strus: 71.3%
Luke Kennard: 69.6%
Donte DiVincenzo: 69.2%
He’s now attempting 5.3 2s per 100 and is shooting nearly 58% on them. That difference moves him away from being simply a 3pt specialist. He replaced those with looks that were just as good!
Here’s his rim FGA per 100, rim freq and rim FG%:
2020: 1.2 / 7.7% / 83.0%
2021: 1.38 / 8.6% / 79.0%
2022: 1.5 / 8.4% / 63.9%
2023: 1.08 / 6.3% / 80.0%
2024: 2.69 / 15.2% / 69.9%
Adding this kind of rim pressure is what puts role players in the higher tier. Being able to finish efficiently at the rim is one of the most important things for a player to be able to do. Those are one of the highest percentage shots that you can get.
Even if Robinson isn’t taking guys off the dribble and creating those shots himself, being an elite offensive role player still means being able to get those looks and finish well in the first place.
There are 21 players that take at least 1 2pt shot and 5 3pt shots within the touch time of 2s or less. Robinson is third in 2FG% and eighth in 3FG%. Efficient at both off-ball shots.
The way he does it is by constantly moving. He’s always active and looking to cut. If the defense isn’t paying attention, it’s a cut. It’s being in motion, looking to attack those spaces. Being an active screener also helps because that puts him in the perfect spot to slip and backcut.
He’s already one of the deadliest off ball 3pt shooters with him running around like a mad man. And now you combine that with the constant running around to the rim.
Related to the off-ball movement, it’s what he does when he doesn’t shoots a 3. That’s where we saw the decrease in that 3pt rate. He’s more confident in doing something different. This is where the putting the ball down on the floor comes in.
He’s been beating closeouts with confidence and ease. That’s been one of the main reasons why he’s getting more shots at the rim. Yes, he needs that initial advantage where he can draw the defender because of the needed closeout, but once that happens, he can create.
There’s no indecisiveness. He attacks the defender straight on. He finds ways to get to the rim. He has those long strides that make it easier to go around defenders.
What’s even better is that it doesn’t have to end with him taking the shot either. He has been more comfortable with those kick outs or finding guys in the paint.
Here are his drives per 36 and the % of it being passed
2020: 1.1 / 53.6%
2021: 2.1 / 62.2%
2022: 2.5 / 59.3%
2023: 4.6 / 60.2%
2024: 6.7 / 51.7%
This hasn’t been a new thing for him and it is the lowest in his career, but the overall usage has gone up and he has been able to score better than he did before. With the better finishing and how he was always able to make those reads, it makes the offense so much better. All of that means that he can continue the possession to keep the flow. The worst thing that could happen is a player only being able to take the shot or makes the defense reset once they don’t know what they should do.
These two additions have made his impact even higher. To be an effective role player on offense, you need to be efficient and be able to do various things on the court. That’s exactly what he’s doing by being a better and more frequent finisher at the rim and being able to capitalise off advantages efficiently too for himself or for others.
This wasn’t the only thing he improved in. The part where his game expanded even further was the on-ball stuff. Part of the increase in his ball handling was with him being tasked in the pick and roll.
These are his PNR possessions and frequency over the years:
2020: 0.2 / 2.2%
2021: 0.8 / 6.7%
2022: 0.8 / 7.5%
2023: 0.5 / 6.9%
2024: 2.0 / 17.2%
Almost 10% more of his offense comes as a ball handler in the PNR. For comparison, here are some players with the frequency of 8% or fewer:
Malik Beasley: 0.8 / 8.0%
Buddy Hield: 0.8 / 6.5%
Grayson Allen: 0.7 / 6.6%
Trey Murphy: 0.7 / 5.7%
Keegan Murray: 0.6 / 4.4%
Quentin Grimes: 0.6 / 7.8%
Kevin Huerter: 0.6 / 5.9%
Here are the players with around 15-18% frequency:
Scottie Barnes: 3.3 / 16.2%
Keldon Johnson: 2.7 / 17.5%
Jalen Suggs: 1.9 / 15.6%
Alex Caruso: 1.8 / 18.4%
Josh Richardson: 1.8 / 18.4%
That’s a whole different group of players — ones that are tasked with more secondary ball handling. Even though you still wouldn’t want to run an offense through him because there were clear signs of errors when he was being over tasked, it’s still a good option to have than not. A player being capable to even give you that option will always be a good thing.
That’s what the Heat needed at times. With guys out of the lineup or guys declining with age, this increase in responsibility from Robinson was a necessity and he did a good job too!
The overall PNR game has been fun to watch. He’s been able to take guys off the dribble. He’s re using screens, forcing defenders to go over, he hesitates and surveys the floor. In those limited touches, he has been doing it as well as you’d expect. Even with non-PNR possessions, he flashed a lot just simply putting the ball down and attacking without a screen.
Now, there were some struggles once the defense thought “okay, you’re not beating us”. When either they put more pressure or someone better was defending him, mistakes were made.
There was a game where they spammed a Duncan action after it worked a couple of times. What followed was over dribbling into a turnover and bad passes being made. The pressure does still get to him easily. That’s where I don’t think you can rely on it in that way. I don’t see him being at a level where he’s able to improvise at a good enough level and adapt to the defense.
That’s why for him to be effective, he does need a better context with better players to be maximised. That’s where he can do all those other things he worked on with his off ball movement, his finishing at the rim, and one of his best strengths, his passing:
His passing might be the most fun thing about his game. For the last three years, I’ve been saying that I think he’s a top 3 passer on this team. I don’t know what order it is, but he’s definitely there. There are so many high level reads that he somehow makes it with ease.
He definitely has improved his PNR passes too. There were some next level reads that I don’t remember him making. He was always very smart with his passes, but some of the skip passes or him manipulating the defense was different.
One of the best things about his passes his reaction time, processing speed and the accuracy of his passes, particularly to rollers. You can see how quickly he makes those decisions the second he makes the defense panic.
Per BBall-Index, here are some passing stats compared to on-ball players and off-ball players:
Box creation: F vs A
High value assists per 75: F vs B
Potential assists per 100 passes: D+ vs A+
Off ball gravity: A+ vs A+
On ball gravity: D- vs A+
Passing creation quality: C vs B
Passing creation volume: F vs A
Passing efficiency: B vs A-
Passing versatility: B+ vs A
Playmaking talent: D vs B+
The stats compared to on-ball players will obviously be graded low, especially when it comes to volume, but it’s still encouraging to see a few positive grades even amongst that group. When it comes to off ball players, he’s one of the best passers.
Finally, we did see the bounce back from his shooting. His shooting will always remain the number one thing about him because he’s that special of a shooter.
He can get those 3s in so many different ways and is effective at each of them. I feel like he’s been even better at that, especially with how he moves to get those looks. It’s off ball movement like this:
He never stops moving and makes the defense have to pay attention. Or it’s doing what he’s always done with the handoffs and now even adding more off dribble pull ups:
I would like to see more of the actual off dribble 3s because that could be another aspect of his game that can make a difference.
Per BBall-Index, his 3pt shooting ranks:
3pt pull up talent: 22nd
3pt pull up shot making: 12th
3pt pull up shot making efficiency: 3rd
3pt pull up shot quality: 504th
C&S 3pt shooting talent: 19th
C&S 3pt shot making: 24th
C&S 3pt shot making efficiency: 25th
C&S 3pt shot quality: 547th
It’s that versatility in how he gets those shots that makes him so dangerous. There’s also this and it’s this why it’s hard to replace him.
The thing about specialists is that most often they will decline in the playoffs when the defense gets tighter and they takeaway your main thing. Robinson is immune to that. He’s just as effective and important in the playoffs offensively as he in the regular season. There aren’t many shooters that are flat out more impactful than him.
So, overall, he had his best season yet. Don’t just fall for looking at his box score stats because they don’t say in what ways he’s been entirely different that brings so much more impact.
Where does that leave him going into this season?
Now, this is assuming his back stuff isn’t an issue. That is a weird thing that can easily change everything here. All of the ways he’s effective in now can easily decline just like that. Those back issues for an off-ball shooter can ruin that. I hope this isn’t anything serious and that we’ll see a healthy Robinson. Otherwise, that changes a lot for him and the team where they would have to move on sooner rather than later.
But if it’s back to normal, he should start. With all the improvements he’s made, there’s no reason that he shouldn’t. He fits with the starters better. He has the skillset that is suited for that and is more effective at it.
And now with those additions to the game, that should make the weaknesses that were apparent before less detrimental. Before, if he struggled shooting, there wasn’t much that he offered. He wasn’t going to put the ball down and make plays out of it. He wasn’t getting to the rim — almost 90% of his shots were 3s.
This also hindered what the team could do with him. It had to be those dribble handoffs as the starting point because that was the best way to maximise him. That’s different now. There are more options to use him because he’s more versatile offensively.
The only reason that he shouldn’t start is politics.
But based on the big enough sample in the past of what works, what both Butler and Adebayo need, and now all of the changes and additions to his game, this is what makes most sense for him.
Now, looking at the most likely outcome with him being off the bench, then everything should remain the same for him. The only thing about that is still finding ways to have him play more minutes with both Adebayo and Butler.
Here are the minutes per game with those over the years(starting in 2020)
19.2 → 18.2 → 17.9 → 3.0 → 12.6
It’s a choice to drop the minutes of the players that need each other and are most effective together.
I’m definitely excited to see Robinson play again fully healthy and see if everything that he’s done this year can continue to grow — who knows, maybe he adds even more to his game.