A Deep Dive into Nikola Jovic & What Can We Expect For the 2025 Season

A deep dive into Jovic's season, what he did well, what needs to improve & looking ahead

In the upcoming days, we’ll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. We’ll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like.

It feels like a lot of people have already forgotten about Nikola Jovic. I remember not long ago that people were calling Spoelstra out for not even playing Jovic. Now, it feels like the hype is gone to the next shiny toy.

Why else would there be conversations about who should be starting the next to Bam Adebayo? We already found as good of a player as you can realistically get, especially one that should continue to get better.

Last year, we didn’t see much of Jovic having only played 15 games and that was to start the year where guys were missing a lot of time — he didn’t see the floor once the calendar flipped in the regular season. This year was a similar story too. He barely played to start the year. He had a whole bunch of DNPS and that lasted until December 28th for a bit but once he came back from his injury, he was fully a starter heading forwards.

He did good as a starter too! In the 38 games he started, he scored 14.4 points per 75 possessions on 57.2% eFG and 58.5% TS, including shooting 40% from 3pt on over 9 3s per 100. The team was also good in his minutes, they were +7.9 in 896 minutes with a 117.8 offensive rating. Include both Jimmy Butler and Adebayo, that number jumps to +10.8 in 396 minutes with a 118.7 ORTG.

Throughout the season, he’s been looking so much better and better. There was significant improvement in real time that was noticeable, particularly on the defensive end.

That’s why there was this whole breakdown of his defense here:

Or another breakdown here:

And, there was another breakdown of his career night against the Houston Rockets:

He definitely had his moments throughout the year that made him a starter — he had three games scoring 20+, 14 in double digits, three games with 5+ assists, 11 with 4+ assists, and four games with 4+ 3s. There’s a reason why he was made a starter in the end.

So, let’s have a look at his season, the improvements he’s made on both ends of the floor, and what can his next season can look like!

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The first and most important thing about Jovic’s season is his huge defensive improvement. That alone was the reason why he even saw any court time to begin with.

Last year, he was used in a completely different role defensively as a big and that did hurt him a lot. He’s not cut out for that role, which isn’t anything unreasonable. This year, however, he played alongside Adebayo more and that put him in a better position to succeed — he went from playing 12.6 minutes to 17.4 together.

His defensive impact can be seen immediately in estimated plus-minus. He went from -0.8 to +0.2. He’s not that of a positive defender, according to the metrics, but there’s a difference in at least being a neutral one vs one that is a negative.

The first improvement was being in the right spot at the right time more consistently. This showed up a lot in the playoffs too:

He was usually responsible for being the help side defender and he did a good job recognising when he needs to rotate and help at the rim. In a lot of these possessions, that improvement in how he fast he recognised that he needed to help was the difference between an open layup and a missed shot.

When it comes to his rim protection as the help side defender, for the year, he defended 3.7 shots within 6ft and opponents shot 64.0%(1.0% better than expected, though). That actually increased since becoming a full-time starter where opponents shot 65.7%. But that is still an improvement from last year when it was 70%!

There were flashes of him providing solid help at the rim. With those lanky arms, he was able to either deter a shot in the first place or really bother the opponent with the length. You can see in a few of those clips how he’s been able to swallow guys up, stayed disciplined, and contested the shot properly without fouling.

But the most impressive part of the growth were all of the little things. It was knowing when and how to provide the right help. It was doing a bunch of different things in single possessions that made him work in different areas. The reaction times to instantly recognise what he needs to do, whether it was to help, to switch, to rotate, help at the rim, closeout, or deflect a pass, he was doing it all so seamlessly. It did feel like the game did slow down for him on that end.

As mentioned at the start where last year he wasn’t in the position to succeed because he was asked to be a big on defense. Well, that has also improved significantly where he doesn’t look like out of place or is very jumpy.

There were also plenty of encouraging flashes of his defense against drives and on switches. That’s where the potential for him to work out well defensively shows.

Or check this compilation of him holding his own against Dejounte Murray!

If he can be more versatile defensively where there isn’t an area that is going to hurt him significantly, it’s going to be a huge plus for the team. Right now, I still wonder what is his best role defensively and where he’s not going to get hunted. What kind of matchups or archetypes of a player is he most suited to guard? What matchups will cause issue for him and how significant will those issues be?

Overall, his defensive growth from October to now was eye-popping. He looked like a completely different player on that end. I don’t remember the last time a player made that significant of a jump throughout the season. And credit it to him because that was the biggest reason why he wasn’t able to touch the court most of the time. If that continues to be thing he improves in all around areas, and solidifies himself in some role defensively, then I don’t see why he wouldn’t be a consistent 25mpg starter.

Now, let’s go to his offense because that will also play a big part in him getting consistent starter minutes. The Heat have been looking for someone with size that can play next to Adebayo that can also shoot and be a reliable spacer. They needed that guy that can chuck up a decent volume of shots and be good at it — we’ve seen Jae Crowder do that against the Bucks and Caleb Martin against the Celtics. That “four” position being a spacer has been the biggest need.

Jovic has the potential to be that. He certainly showed flashes of that already. He’s been upping his volume throughout the year and has been knocking them down. He hasn’t been there yet, where the defense was helping a lot off of him, but I doubt that is going to be an issue going forward. The thing about becoming a reliable spacer is that it won’t happen until it does. Until said player puts up high amount of shots willingly with confidence that he is a shooter and knocks it down at a respectable rate, then it’s only a matter of time until the defense is forced to adjust. And I think that will come soon based on what he’s shown towards the end.

For the year, he’s shot 39.8% on 9.1 3s per 100. Since becoming a full on starter since February 13th, he’s shooting 39.0 on 10.3. Even when you include just the minutes with both Butler and Adebayo, it’s the same thing, 39.7% on 10.3.

This is exactly what you’d like to see. Much higher volume of 3s. And if he’s also a high 30s or low 40s shooter, then that’s going to make him a dangerous off-ball player.

Because I like how he gets his 3s and also how there’s no hesitation in taking them. It’s not just spotting in the corner. Since becoming a starter, he’s shooting 46.3% on 3.6 corner 3s(21% of his shots) and 35.0% on 6.7 ATB 3s(41%). There’s versatility in how and where he gets those looks. It can be a standstill spotting up in the corner. It can be lifting to the wing. It can also be as a popper, a trailer, or him relocating to the other side of the court. The point is that he’s not simply a stationary shooter.

Per BBall-Index, here are some of his 3pt shooting stats amongst off-ball players:

• C in 3pt versatility

• C in 3pt openness rating(the worse grade, the less open shots)

• B in 3pt functional versatility

• C in C&S 3pt openness rating

• A- in 3pt shot making efficiency

• B+ in C&S 3pt shot making efficiency

• B in 3pt shot creation*

• D in 3pt shot quality*

• B+ in C&S 3pt FGA per 75*

• B+ in 3pt FGA per 75*

Only 21 players have similar grades in the stats marked by a star. He’s still not there when it comes to elite of the elite in terms of volume or efficiency, but he’s also way beyond someone that is just a “okay” shooter or spacer.

Now, all it comes down to is him simply taking more. Taking around 9 3s per 100 puts him around 80th to 100th range sorted by volume. I’d want him to be in the upper tier. I want him to rank around 30-50th in volume. That’s the around the same as Lauri Markkanen, Quentin Grimes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Michael Porter Jr, and Doug McDermott.

Equally as important, is he’s not just a 3pt specialist. He’s shown flashes and so much improvement in other areas that makes him a more well rounded offensive role player. Possessions don’t have to end with him simply taking a catch and shoot 3 and that’s what most important.

He’s capable of doing so much more with the ball. The best and the most fun thing is the transition stuff. He’s fun to watch when he gets going in transition

Even when he’s not finishing himself, the way he’s able to push the ball and make decisions has been a great thing for the Heat, especially for a team that has lacked someone capable of being a good decision-maker in transition.

When it comes to his finishing, that has trended upwards but it hasn’t been as consistent enough. For the year, he’s shooting 55.5% at the rim, though that has improved to 71.4% since becoming a starter. The flashes have been there with him. It’s now just continuing to build on it because the tools are there. He is almost 7ft. He looks stronger after finishing around in traffic. He just needs to do more of that because being a 70% shooter at the rim is highly valuable.

Similar to his 3pt shooting, it’s how he does it

He’s a smart cutter. He knows when and how to move into those spaces. Plus being near 7ft also helps him with that. I also particularly liked the flashes he’s shown as an on-ball player. That does need more work and I don’t think that can be a reliable option at a higher volume yet, but it’s again showing a lot of promise, especially compared to what it was.

But this is something that could be the difference maker and it doesn’t have to do with him creating shots for himself either. If he can make himself a reliable option where he can comfortably attack a closeout to beat guys off the catch, then that alone will make his impact so much greater. His ability to pressure the rim in those ways will be the ceiling for him.

Depending on who’s going to get matched with him, whether it’s a smaller guy that he could bully(he’s done that a few times) or a slower guy that could comfortably beat off the dribble, that will push that ceiling a lot higher. Because then you have the perfect off-ball role player.

Finally, one of the main things about him is his passing. That is something that I think should be used more often. He’s such a capable passer in so many different ways.

He makes tough windows look wide open. He’s able to hit cutters, especially when he’s being used as a hub or in delay actions. His processing speed and ability to make those snappy decisions on those passes is also up there. He’s a willing passer. He will make that extra pass to swing the ball with no hesitation. He flashed many different types of passes out of different situations, whether it was stationary, drive & kicks, out of a pick and roll, or in the post.

One thing, though, I think some of the decision-making could be better, it has felt like he makes some of the reads too fast without seeing that the defender is likely to steal it.

But overall, his passing is definitely one of his main strengths. Per BBall-Index, amongst off-ball players:

• C+ in passing efficiency(that’s that one main weakness)

• A- in passing versatility

• A+ in passing creation volume

• A- in passing creation quality

• B+ in potential assists per 100 passes

• A in high value assists(rim, 3s, free throws) per 75 poss

• B- in drive assist pts per 75

That’s elite and it’s likely only going to get better with more reps. This is where there should be an emphasis in using him as a passer more.

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So, after looking at all of that, where does that leave Jovic heading into the season?

He shouldn’t be penciled in as a starter, he should be a lock. With the way he’s improved in pretty much every area, it shouldn’t be a question.

But without getting ahead of ourselves, this is also all in terms of him being a role player on both ends of the floor. This isn’t a projection that he’s a star. This isn’t putting any of those expectations either. At the same time, though, all of those improvements at this current stage where slight improvements are significant(it’s a big difference going from bad to even average) and they’re significant enough to make him an impactful role player.

His leap doesn’t have to be more usage or being used more on-ball. It doesn’t have to be taking him out of what he was doing well. It will simply be playing the role much more effectively because now he has shown to be a better, more willing 3pt shooter, better rim finisher, and has cleaned up a lot of his defensive mistakes. On that note, I still think the defensive questions will be the thing that stops from going any further until that is addressed.

Overall, he’s had one of the best seasons, considering where he was and what was expected of him. It will be fun to see how he looks after following another off-season with the international team and another year of getting older.