A Deep Dive Into Terry Rozier
A deep dive into his start with the Heat & what will he add to the team fully integrated
In the upcoming days, we’ll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. We’ll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like.
So, this was the Miami Heat’s whale of the season. All of the talk about Kyle Lowry’s expiring ended up getting Terry Rozier.
I will immediately start off by saying that this trade definitely made them better in the short term. They were in a better position than they were with Lowry at the start of the year. Although, looking back at it now, I wouldn’t have made this particular move(and even near that time, I’d rather have explored other players) at that cost for this type of player. I don’t believe Rozier was or is a needle-moving move or someone that will change the team drastically. It was a good move because of where they were with Lowry.
When it comes to Rozier’s season in general with the Heat, that was a mixed bag. One that I’m not going to look into that much because of all the context surrounding it. Getting integrated to a team that was already dealing with issues, underperforming, having fit issues, being a bad offense, and trying to do that as that team also deals with no continuity, it’s going to be difficult.
That’s why I don’t think there should be many strong conclusions being formed about Rozier, his play, his fit, and anything else based solely on 20 odd healthy games. Because that’s also how it is about the rest of the team too. Too many big picture aspects can’t be formed because of those same reasons. Everything has to in a way be evaluated on it’s own and then thought about how that could in theory work.
With that said, there are still some trends and signs that could be looked at. There are things that you can take away from based on what we also know about Rozier as a whole. That’s why a lot of this will also look at his time in Charlotte to try to paint a better picture of what could happen next season.
Rozier didn’t have a great start with the Heat. In his first three games, he scored 26 points on 33 shots. When you expand that to 10 total games, it was averaging 12.6 points on 12.8 shots. It was a rough stretch.
A lot of that had to do with simply missing good, open looks that he’d normally make. Even not considering a change of team, shooting 28.6% on catch-and-shoot 3s, that includes 2/22(9%)!!! on open 3s, is a cold stretch like nothing else. You don’t have to be a great shooter to think that’s just bad shot variance. Had he made a handful of more open looks, the overall percentages wouldn’t be that bad.
This is where you can’t make any strong conclusions. Small sample size percentages, particularly on 3s aren’t a sign of anything. Those should stabilize with more games, especially when Rozier isn’t that bad of a shooter. That’s why in the following games, he shot 43.9% on C&S 3s, including 24/55 on open 3s. SHOT VARIANCE.
That’s why his time looks worse than it is. But at the same time, his struggles also go beyond shooting luck. I had my thoughts on Rozier that were lower on his season even considering everything else and even when he was playing better post-all-star break and none of it had to do with the shooting.
He was still extremely streaky and inconsistent and a lot of it had to do with his hot 3-point shooting that also made it seem better than it was.
That’s the story of Rozier being Stephen Curry one week and then Killian Hayes the other.
I went through this in a lot more detail, where I talked about his stretch that he looked so much better here!
Here were some of the stats differences in his first 10 games vs the first seven post ASB:
Points: 12.6 → 18.0
eFG: 40.2% → 54.9%
TS%: 45.3% → 57.8%
2pt: 43% → 53%
3pt: 23% → 38%
But it was also how he was getting those shots:
2pt AST%: 28% → 17%
3pt AST%: 91% → 64%
Touches: 62 → 68
Time of possession: 3.9 → 4.9
Average second: 3.83 → 4.27
Average dribble: 3.39 → 3.89
With him being more acclimated to the team and with Herro’s absence, he was being used more in a role that he was in Charlotte — more on-ball, more self-creation, and with some streaky tough shooting. In those seven games he was leading the team in PNRs with 180, ahead of Butler’s 105 and Robinson’s 50, per Couper Moorhead.
This was Rozier reverting back to his Charlotte days. This is the role that he’s most likely will play and why he was brought here in the first place. That’s why going forward, that is the standard. Whether it’s going to be more effective here and there with more chemistry is less important than what the actual process is or the role.
So, it’s now looking at his season through that lens and how he was over the years in Charlotte and how that can fit with this team going forward.
Rozier isn’t some young player that we don’t have a history of. We know what Rozier is or isn’t. There are enough years in different settings, different contexts, different teammates, and different situations to assess what he is, what he can bring, what his strengths & weaknesses are, and what is that going to do for this team.
As mentioned at the start, this does make them better. Him being in the role he was in Charlotte whether alongside LaMelo Ball or as the sole creator. That will help because it will be an upgrade over the players that they had at the guard spot over the two years.
Rozier, even for all his limitations, gives you more impactful offense than post-2022 Lowry, Gabe Vincent, and Max Strus. He’s still a player that will give you better shot creation than those three. He’s still the better ball handler as a scorer, even if streaky. His downhill threat is significantly ahead of those guards.
Per BBall-Index, here are some stats for Vincent 2023, Lowry 2023, Lowry 2024, Rozier 2024, Herro 2024:
Let’s ignore the passing for a minute, when it comes to scoring, downhill threat, mid-range, and shot creation, he is much better than what they had.
Starting with the downhill threat. Here are some stats over the years for him compared to on-ball players:
Now, it’s still great in relation to what the Heat had — since 2020, out of only on-ball players, there have four seasons where someone had a better rim shot creation than Rozier(Butler 21-23, Oladipo 21). He’s already creating shots at the rim better than pretty much everyone in that role.
There are definitely plenty of possessions so far already with him being able to turn the corner more frequently than any other guard that we had. He is more explosive in that area. There’s that shiftiness that allows him to get by too. The only issue with that is that it might not be as frequent as you’d need from a typical on-ball player with higher usage.
There are also plenty of times when his drives out of a PNR didn’t get anything going either. He looked to drive, but the action is still defended 2v2, the big doesn’t allow a deep drive, no forced rotation, and it ends up resetting or Adebayo gets the ball for a contested mid-range.
Also making the shots is a different story. That will have to change, otherwise his impact isn’t going to be that good, even compared to what we had. Here are his rim FG% over the years(starting in 2020):
51.4% → 58.6% → 60.1% → 57.5% → 53.2%
That is quite abysmal. There is certainly value in getting downhill and to the rim in the first place, especially when no other guard is able to do so.
The issue with Rozier is that this also is a case in the paint. His finishing around the rim or the paint isn’t to a good enough standard.
38.0% → 47.3% → 43.4% → 40.6% → 47.1%
The paint scoring is a bit more worrying too because that’s the shot he will likely get than fully at the rim. Whenever he even turns the corner, he has a habit of killing his dribble too early and stopping for shots in the paint. If he’s not good enough for those shots, then there’s no other option.
In the last 5 years, out of 244 players with at least 5 rim FGA per 100 poss, he’s 230th in %. Out of 178 players with at least 4 short mid-range, 92nd.
That is what stops him from an efficient player. His ability to create shots at the rim isn’t that great and that’s also taken a dip because of the horrible finishing. So, yes, it might be better than what they had, but without that qualifier, the Heat still lacks guard play that can finish efficiently at a high volume. With such poor efficiency at the rim or the paint, there’s not much difference compared to someone like Herro.
Even his foul drawing isn’t anything eye popping — .198 for the season this year and .182 in the last five years. These are the exact same issues as we’ve discussed with Herro. That’s also because this is basically the Spider-Man-pointing meme.
Let’s go to his shot creation because apparently, for a lot of people that is the needle mover.
He’s definitely solid. But if you’re looking at what he did this year, it’s his best season that looks very out of norm compared to his previous years.
Even if it is out of the norm, the previous two seasons is still something we haven’t had on the Heat. Average self creation with flashes of getting efficient looks or even beating someone off the dribble is beneficial on the team. What he has been quite good at is against switches. That is something I am feeling comfortable where if the defense switches someone bigger or slower, he will be able to beat them off the dribble to force help.
I also want to include this. His % on shots with 7+ dribbles or 6 seconds touch time on 2s specifically — that’s the tough shot making.
2020: 40.9% / 43.2%
2021: 51.1% / 45.9%
2022: 50.0% / 45.7%
2023: 44.1% / 39.2%
2024: 49.7% / 51.7%
So, he’s not bad but he’s also not elite or great either and that’s even if we consider that this year is here to stay. This isn’t changing the Heat’s offense, nor is it that needed. Relying on those shots isn’t a good thing if that’s the main diet.
The highlights of him having a tough stepback or even creating separation for a good look is cool in bursts, as a counter, and on top of an already efficient offense. Generating tough middys has never been the Heat’s issue. At times, it does feel like he is settling for those shots, and post ASB, there were stretches of some questionable shot selection.
His long mid-range frequency also has went up over the years, and that’s another bad sign, especially considering his %s. Players that are elite at creating their shots don’t have to rely on tough shot-making. They don’t have to have a low percentage shot in the mid-range at that volume if they can consistently create better shots. That’s where the settling comes in, too.
Here’s his frequency and % from the long mid-range:
2020: 10.2% / 34.4%
2021: 9.4% / 41.2%
2022: 9.1% / 47.2%
2023: 10.5% / 42.4%
2024: 12.8% / 49.2%
Quite streaky, and I’ll take a bet that he’s not that kind of shooter from that range. On that note, I’d also would like to see more 3s instead.
Now, related to that, is his 3pt shooting.
There has been a significant shift in how he gets his 3s. It went from mainly being a catch-and-shoot guy to more being off the dribble. The issue is that he’s never been a good off-the-dribble shooter. It’s streaky from horrible to bad — we were lucky that we saw an outlier that was great. But when it comes to his off-ball ability, he is effective as a catch-and-shoot guy — we were unlucky in that department. This is something that should stabilize, as we also saw later in the season.
He has also taken quite a lot of shots from the corner in his career. 25% of his 3s are in the corner where he shoots 38% for his career — that has jumped 28% frequency and 39% FG.
I would also point out that the shift did come in the years that he spent his least amount of minutes when Ball got injured, so it is likely that he can be used differently with better players.
One of the biggest weaknesses is going to be his passing. He’s not that kind of player to rely on making plays consistently for others. Per BBall-Index, amongst on-ball players:
Not a good sign to see a bunch of reds. That’s simply not his role and it’s likely that he’s going to be forced into that here. That became noticeable immediately with the Heat. There were many instances where he attacked and the pass was right there.
That has been apparent in the PNR too and I’m not sure if that’s vision or simply being too small. Whenever there is defense helping off, he looks so small that I wouldn’t be surprised if he just can’t see over the two defenders shading him.
One thing that has stood out though is the lob passes. That was already showing up early in his time with the Heat. He’s definitely willing and good when it comes to that. That’s another thing, there wasn’t a feeling of not passing enough. He averaged 53.5 passes per game.
But that’s about it when it comes to his passing ability. Out of everything that we talked about, it’s this that has been the most underwhelming, disappointing, and rather least encouraging. Everything else is something that can be worked around or improved with better chemistry, actions, etc. But having gone through some Hornets games from the past, looking at other writers that cover the Hornets, and it’s not looking good — it’s never been good enough to show that kind of potential.
Now, leading into that, let’s talk about his role with what it was and what it should be. Here are the % of his possessions for each playtype:
Along with that are his FG% and eFG:
A few things stand out. He’s definitely been used more as a ball handler in the last two years because of Ball’s injuries but hasn’t been that effective. He’s been good but nothing anything special.
That kind of usage continued with the Heat(though his spot-up increased too). That’s where I’m not sure how I’d feel about Rozier running so much of the offense. This will feel like a slightly better version of what we’re seeing with Herro. Rozier, too, was placed in that role because of the team circumstances. That’s not his role where he’d be the most efficient.
But at the same time, I do think him in an off-ball role will be much better than what he does on-ball. In his time with the Heat, he has been a frequent, active screener looking to move constantly. There hasn’t been an issue with him standing still.
Even when he’s capitalizing off advantages with beating closeouts, he has been able to get those drives better and provide more rim pressure — though he does have a big habit of settling for those floaters or making the shot tougher too. There needs to be a better balance in attacking deeper.
And I like the fact there are more options with him off-ball, using him in handoffs, spot-ups, or even off-screen. That’s the versatility that will help.
So, because he doesn’t get to the rim at an elite level, nor finishes at an even average rate, nor is he a great passer either. Is it better than what the Heat had? Sure. Is he at least average at that and provides the shot creation that they haven’t had since Dragic, even if it’s still considerably worse? Sure. But sure just brings them up slightly. This doesn’t mean much for them to contend. This is definitely an improvement to where a deep run is more likely, but that’s exactly where they were in 2023 — still relying a lot on other factors that aren’t that reasonable. Post All-Star break with Rozier, Butler, and Adebayo on, the Heat had a 115.8 ORTG. That’s with Rozier playing well.
So, where does that leave Rozier heading into the season?
One thing I do at least hope is that they will start Rozier and have him handle the ball. As much as I don’t think that to be the most effective way of using Rozier(in a same way you don’t do that to Herro), he is their best worst option. That boost will still be a boost.
I do think whatever role he’s going to be in will make the team better because of where they started. He’ll immediately come in and be the best downhill threat since Dragic. That is a huge positive.
But with all of his limitations, I still see a clear ceiling to his impact and I don’t see that impact be high either. With what he was doing in the last two years, it’s more high volume, inefficient on-ball guard doing some floor raising. The skills he has fit more to floor raise and to help better teams so much needs to change.
I’m not going to believe he will turn himself into a respectable rim finisher just based on faith. Similar to his streaky shooting.
There are ways to improve on that. It’s all similar to Herro. It’s embracing that off-ball role(which I believe there’s a more likely chance for that to happen and also be more effective). It can be fixing the shot diet to be more 3pt pull-ups instead. The passing. Sigh. I don’t know how that can improve at this point.
I’m still looking forward to Rozier's play, especially considering the way the season ended. There is some potential that it could lead to better things as long as everything else falls into place that are out of his control.
If we do get a locked-in Butler who is engaged, has more touches, and does his thing and now we have a Rozier-type guard in a slightly lesser role? That is something I can buy into. Rozier’s impact will depend a lot on what Butler we get.
One encouraging point is from 2021 to 2023, here is his impact on offense, per BBall-Index: +1.14, +1.55, +1.13. In that same span, out of on-ball players for the Heat, those numbers would rank 6th, 7th, 8th. The only player who had more impactful offensive numbers was Butler. That is a good sign. For all of the flaws and limitations, it’s still something new that the Heat haven’t had since the bubble.
So, is Rozier a perfect needle mover in a vacuum? Nope. I wouldn’t prefer to have him if there was a choice or to go back and make a different trade. But at the same time, this is the best that the Heat had that position in a long while. It can work. It can fit better in ideal situations.