A Deep Dive Into the Starters' Offense
How do the Heat starters have a 125 ORTG?
So, the Miami Heat’s starters are rolling. Since November 18th, the lineup of Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Haywood Highsmith, and Bam Adebayo has a +19.1 net rating in 116 minutes with a 126.1 ORTG and 107.0 DRTG.
What?!
For comparison, out of 27 lineups with at least 100 minutes, the Boston Celtics lead the league with +19.9 in 184 minutes with a 126.9 ORTG. Almost identical.
Today, we’ll be focusing on that 126 number. How have the Heat turned been so elite offensively? Are they even elite? Is this sustainable? Or is it just a small sample size with some shooting luck? That’s what we’ll be looking to answer.
Firstly, we’ll be looking at all of the key stats to try and a picture of what has happened. What is their shot profile? Where and how are they scoring the ball? Is it playing the possession game? Are they fast? Everything.
The stats tell us the what and the where. After that, we’ll be going through the playtypes that ended the possession(with film) that I manually tracked to see how they’ve been generating that offense. What actions led to each shot? Who’s involved the most and how are they involved?
Let’s dig into all of it.
The Stats
The basic stats(all stats here per PBP Stats):
290 points on 230 possessions
61/104 2pt%(58.6%) — 62.3% AST
46/108 3pt(42.6%) — 95.6% AST
50.9% 3pt rate
61.3% eFG
63.6% TS
30 FT points
82 assists — 26 rim, 11 short mid, 1 long mid, 11 corner, 33 ATB
40/57 rim(70.2%) with 26.9% freq
19/44 short mid(43.2%) with 20.7%
2/3 long mid(66%) with 1.4%
11/29 corner(37.9%) with 13.7%
35/79 ATB 3pt(44.3%) with 37.2%
13.5% TOV — 6.5 live TOVs
28.1% ORB
9.1 second chance pts per 100 — shooting 28% 2pt and 27% 3pt with 39% TS
94.6 pace & 14.99 offensive pace
16.4 PTS off TOV
18.5 FBPS
49.1 PITP
0.184 FTr
A bunch of things stand out here. They are shooting the ball pretty well from deep and having it be on high volume. That 51% would rank second only behind the Celtics at 56%. They are putting up a lot of 3s — accounting for the higher %, the Heat’s starters are actually making more 3s than the Celtics per 100 possession.
But they’re also making plenty of shots inside and it’s mostly due to elite scoring at the rim. 58% inside the arc is one of the best and in the Heat’s context, it’s an outlier amongst outliers. That number would also lead the league.
That 70% at the rim is beautiful, this would be sixth in the league and over 8% higher than their average. Being able to finish at the rim is one of the more important checkmarks for a good offensive team to do. Here’s a scatter plot for since 2021 for rim FG% vs ORTG.
You can see the teams that won or made the finals all clumped together(and the Wizards surprisingly, what are they teaching in Washington?)
But outside of that, they haven’t been shooting the ball particularly well in the paint, with only 43% within 4-14ft. They also only have taken three shots in the long mid-range, which is lovely to see.
It’s the frequency that stands out, though. 78% of their shots are either at the rim or from 3pt, which is 6% higher than their season average. Their rim rate is higher than their short mid-range, which hasn’t been the case for them recently and that has hurt their efficiency a lot. Their most used spot is that above the break at 37% frequency.
When looking at the rest of the stats, a couple more areas standout relative to the league and to what the Heat usually have been like.
What worries me a little bit is the free throw rate. Right now, they are 14th with 0.255, but that starting lineup with 0.184 would rank last easily. I worry that if you’re not shooting 40%+ from 3pt and aren’t getting fast break points, can you get to the line when nothing else works?
They’re also not gaining any more possessions at a high level. With 28.4% ORB, that ranks almost identical to their overall number, and they’re 16th. But they’re still one of the top teams in taking care of the ball. That hasn’t changed much, and their possession(ORB/TOV) hasn’t changed with the starters.
What has increased is their fastbreak points per 100. For the season, they’re sixth at 16.6 and that jumped to almost tied 1st with 18.5. They have been getting plenty of good looks at the rim in transition, too.
Player Stats
Looking deeper at the individual stats, you also get a lot of questions. Here are the player’s scoring, efficiency, and usage with all starters together:
Tyler Herro: 83 points on 71.4% eFG & 72.8% TS with 23.5% USG. Shooting 13/22(59%) 2pt, 18/34(53%) 3pt
Duncan Robinson: 62 points on 53.7% eFG & 55.5% TS with 24.3% USG. Shooting 8/16(50%) 2pt, 14/38(37%) 3pt
Jimmy Butler: 59 points on 79.0% eFG & 81.9% TS with 15.4% USG. Shooting 20/26(77%) 2pt, 3/5(60%) 3pt
Bam Adebayo: 55 points on 46.8% eFG & 50.9% TS with 25.9% USG. Shooting 16/34(47%) 2pt, 4/13(31%) 3pt
Haywood Highsmith: 31 points on 60.4% eFG & 62.0% TS with 10.4% USG. Shooting 4/6(66%) 2pt, 7/18(39%) 3pt
So, Herro is leading them in scoring, but it’s Adebayo and Duncan being the two leaders in USG%? Is Butler having “squints eyes” 15% USG? That’s lower than Caleb Martin!
When looking at just the shots and shooting FTA
Herro: 56 FGA + 4 FTA = 60
Duncan: 54 + 5 = 59
Adebayo: 47 + 14 = 61
Butler: 31 + 14 = 45
Haywood: 24 + 2 = 26
So, it’s essentially the top three being the offense.
Herro's 53% shooting from 3pt certainly pops out. He has a 61% 3pt rate and is shooting that high, it’s absurd. But equally as crazy, it’s him shooting 10/14 at the rim and only taking 6 shots within 4-14ft. If he’s attacking, he’s attacking straight to the rim.
Haywood is doing his thing as the role player. He’ll finish inside when he gets there but his role is to take 3s and make them. Going 7/18 is good enough for what he needs to do.
But the most disappointing has been Adebayo. Basically being tied for most scoring possessions and he has a 51% TS. That’s inexcusable. I’m surprised that the Heat are still this efficient despite that.
Playtypes & Actions
With all of the stats out of the way, let’s go through some film and see the actions that generated their offense. This will be only looking at the action that ended the possession. That won’t fully capture the entire offense, as it doesn’t tell you every action before the shot that occurred, which was unsuccessful for whatever reason in generating a shot. For the purposes of this breakdown, mainly because of time, it’s focusing on the points itself.
Here’s a quick rundown of the play types. These are hand tracked, so there may be some discrepancies due to just judgment on what each play type mostly looks like:
Pick and roll/handoff ball handler: 27 FGM & 3 shooting fouls drawn
Transition: 16
ISO/Post: 14 + 5 SF
PNR leading to a spot up: 13
Cut: 9
Pick and roll roll man: 6 + 2
ISO/Post leading to a spot up: 8
Putbacks/ORB: 4 + 1
Off-screen: 4 + 1
Their PNR is the most common way of getting points, whether it’s the ball handler scoring or using that action to create shots elsewhere. That’s how they’ve been able to blitz opponents, too.
Starting off with their ball handling, it’s mostly led by both Herro and Duncan. It’s these two that get the biggest share of the possessions. This is where the 3pt shooting helps a lot.
The most common action period is a Herro-led PNR with him taking the shot:
It’s a lot of handoffs and going for those pull ups, attacking the drop coverage. And when he’s cooking for 53%, there’s not much else that you can do at that point. Whenever the Heat needed to get a bucket, that pull up from way downtown is open and it has been cash basically every single time.
This is similar to Duncan:
It’s almost the same result, except how they get there is a bit different, and that’s mainly to do with the difference in skillset. Herro is a much better ball handler and an off-the-dribble threat, whereas Duncan needs to have those handoffs to get going instead.
Both result in plenty of good, open 3s.
That’s how the set up for the most part is with their offense. It’s Adebayo in Delay actions. It’s him being the hub at the top of the key or the elbows and making a read out of that. From there, it’s moving the ball, read and react, and most often ending in a handoff or a PNR for the open pull-up. On this note, this is also how they’ve been getting their assists up. Those handoffs add up quickly.
They also have sprinkled in the drives to the paint and the rim, which keeps the defense more guessing and diversifying the attack, but the big chunk of it are 3s.
This accounted for 24 of the field goals made. Over a fifth of their whole offense ends in a PNR/handoff for either of the sharpshooters.
Staying on those 2, often you also get actions that seamlessly flow with them with another to go into off-screen actions. There might be some handoffs and exchanges going on, before Adebayo goes to set a screen for the other guard to come off, essentially flowing into another PNR:
This just makes the offense flow so smoothly. It’s incorporating two elite shooters with a high-level decision-maker to work with one another.
Moving onto the next most used action and it’s a simple ISO/post, which is dominated by both Butler and Adebayo with eight FGM each:
This has given them a secondary attack to that PNR-heavy offense when needed, particularly from Butler. In small bursts, he has been able to give that other burst of scoring when the 3s aren’t open.
Both these options also have led to a whole bunch of spot-up opportunities, whether that’s a simple drive and kick or putting the defense in rotation:
This has generated good looks, particularly from 3pt. The offense has been flowing out of these actions.
That hasn’t been the same when it comes to flowing out of isolation/post-ups. Still have been getting quality looks at a lower volume, though. But a lot of the time, the offense stalls, and any potential advantage is gone.
Surprisingly, there hasn’t been much as the roll man:
That should be where Adebayo is eating, but that hasn’t been the case. One reason for that could be him being used more as a hub and his rolling tendencies. He’s a handoff hub, even when he hands it off, he floats around that area just in case he needs to flow into another one. When it’s a typical PNR, most often, the shot that is coming is a pull-up 3pt. You’re not getting many chances on a roll if you’re finishing on a pull-up.
Finally, there is the rest of the offense in transition, putbacks, and cuts. That’s also been where they got their most rim pressure. Over half of their rim makes come in these areas.
This has been Butler’s favorite way of scoring and it’s been his most efficient. Almost half of his 2s came in transition. The Heat have been surprisingly really good in transition and being elite in transition definitely raises your floor significantly. That’s easy points, especially at the rim that can give you a boost.
The cuts have also helped in that department, which is thanks to Haywood and Butler:
They have done a great job at exploiting help and making those constant back cuts. On top of that, the Heat have sprinkled in good sets that have set up lobs, again resulting in easy shots.
So, this has been the offense with the starters. They do have great numbers across the board, but I am wary of it. It’s tough for me to think highly of the offense being sustainable or resilient for any defensive adjustments. A lot of that has to do with the lack of rim pressure in the half-court.
Depending on cuts and transition as the main source of rim attempts is risky. Then you also have Butler as the ISO guy who has been working well when it comes to scoring for himself and pressuring the defense that way.
And your main source of offense is pull-up 3s against drop. That’s the biggest part I have a question about. What happens if there isn’t a drop? What happens if the opponent looks to run everyone off the line? What happens if they simply switch? Or just as simple, what happens if instead of shooting 43%, you shoot 38%?
When you also add the low free throw rate, not gaining many extra possessions or finishing on second-chance points, and not scoring off of turnovers, their source can be taken away.
It’s always said that your first option is gone in the playoffs. I don’t see many counters with this current starter’s offense. That can change once(if) Butler is the one taking 60 shots instead of having it be by committee.
If there can be a way where Butler is used more and the rest of the offense is built around that as the secondary attack instead of vice versa, that’s what can make more sense.
But for now, it has been working. The results are good and in a given game, that’s all that matters in that moment.