A Deep Dive into Tyler Herro
A Deep Dive into Tyler Herro
A deep dive into Herro's season & how he added counters to make himself more effective + refining some aspects of his game
In the upcoming days, we’ll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. We’ll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like.
One of the most polarising players on the Heat for the last three years and it doesn’t look like that won’t be the case any time soon. The biggest reason for that is that we simply didn’t see enough of Tyler Herro to begin with having only played 42 games. That’s what hurts him and the conversation around him the most.
Being so in and out of the lineups, having to recover from injuries before getting back to 100%, and never establishing a rhythm is going to make everything worse when going through his play.
With that considered, I still would say this was an overall disappointing season for Herro. There were improvements made. He did a few things to his game that have helped a lot. Plenty of minor details getting refined too. But overall, this was rather the same Herro we saw last and the year before. The main things that have been an issue remain an issue, except he has more touches and usage, which makes those issues even more significant — but in terms of usage, that’s also more on the team and the coaching.
So, let’s go through the season that he had!
Before doing so, here’s a collection of all breakdowns, articles, and threads on Herro throughout the season:
Let’s start with the stretch he had to start the season where he averaged 25.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists in 7 games. This was the stretch before he got hurt that had people say he made a leap or was on the trajectory to be at least an all-star calibre player.
Here are some of those games:
28pts & 6asts on 5/8 2pt, 5/12 3pt, 3/3 ft vs Celtics
35pts on 9/16 2pt, 2/5 3pt, 9/10ft vs Bucks
30pts & 5asts on 4/13 2pt, 6/10 3pt vs Nets
24pts, 10rebs & 9asts vs Wizards
On the surface that all looks great, but digging deeper, it wasn’t particularly signs of a breakout — it was improvements nevertheless, but not signs of potential leap.
That stretch had me go through a whole discussion on Herro that took 2 parts. The first was the general discussion about his usage and touches, that you can read here!
A lot of that had to do with the general discussion of a high-usage guard archetypes that are inefficient. Being a guard that is needed and is maximized with the ball in his hands means you need to provide certain things to make that feasible. It means having an efficient diet, providing rim pressure, and being a good enough playmaker. Unfortunately, that isn’t Herro.
He doesn’t have the skill set to warrant needing the ball or to take 15+ shots. But because he does, he will put up stats, ones that don’t necessarily translate to efficient offense. In that 7 game stretch, the Heat had a 109.6 offensive rating(the worst in the league by a good margin). That was with Herro having a 28.5% usage but only with 55.4% TS.
I also took a deeper dive into all of the film in that stretch here! Or you can check out the thread with all of the clips:
This is going through everything in that stretch. How he got those points, a breakdown of his PNRs, how he approached it, the habits he had, and everything else. There were clear improvements in many areas, particularly the PNR that have made him more effective. It was being more patient, and methodical, getting to his spots better, or simply being better at the shots that he took.
But none of that was addressing the real weaknesses in his game either. Nor was it addressing the things that he’d need to warrant such usage or on-ball role.
That’s where the issue all comes back to him. This is kind of what makes the conversation a bit worse than it is. This wouldn’t be that big of an issue if he was the kind of player closer to Duncan Robinson than a star guard. None of this would be a topic if he was taking 8-10 shots, because that’s really what his skillset and ability warrants.
This conversation will never be what it’s meant to be as long as he’s the guy that leads the team in shots because for whatever reason that’s believed to be needed. If that is the situation he’s in, that’s the standard that he’s compared to.
If he had been in a lesser role with fewer shots, fewer touches, and less time on-ball, everything would have been different. The points of emphasis with him would be looked at differently. The things that he does also wouldn’t be an issue to even talk about. For example, the problem with his mid-range shots isn’t that he takes mid-range shots, it’s that he takes too many in proportion to everything else. That skill in itself isn’t a bad thing.
Herro’s issues aren’t things that can or will be solved with more reps. To start the year, he was already one of the top guys in touches and time of possession. He was given the keys to the offense to run it and it didn’t work out. Even throughout his career, he’s constantly been put in the place more than a third of his offense comes as a pick-and-roll guy.
That continued throughout the year. The start that he had earlier in the year, was almost the same as it was towards the end — some numbers simply regressed to the mean. That’s part of why the stretch was that good.
That’s why as a whole this whole year has felt disappointing. Now how much of that to blame is the coaching and the whole view of him the front office has is a different discussion. But looking at as it is, for whatever reasons, it can’t be spun any other way. There is no way to justify that a player can lead the team in shots, be one of the highest guys on-ball, and be so inefficient without not making it a big deal.
The only way to change all of this is the first step of changing his game completely, to the point where it’s being used like Jaime Jaquez Jr or Duncan Robinson. Until that happens, I can’t see my view change on him.
No matter how much Spoelstra and the Heat push this, it won’t change anything unless he improves significantly at all of his weaknesses that will make him a reliable option in that role — this is also not saying I know better than Spoelstra.
With that said, let’s go through some basketball!
Ironically, the things that are one of the main issues with his game, are also the things that he’s even become really good at them or is getting better each year.
He has really developed that floater to the point where it’s an effective weapon for him. Continuing with last year, he has made sure that it’s an option for him at a high clip. Per BBall-Index, he’s 15th overall in floater talent.
Whether it’s finishing with that shot or any other way around the paint, he has made it a good enough shot for him to take.
Per PBP stats, he’s shooting 50.0% on shots within 4-14ft with 30.2% of his shots coming there. That’s up from 46.8% last year with 26.6% frequency. Out of 55 players with at least 500 minutes and 6 attempts per 100 in that area, he ranks 15th in %.
Related to all of that is his jump in the pull ups being more effective as a result. He’s shooting 47.7% on 4.3 pull ups.
These were his percentages and volume since 2020:
2020: 41.6% on 3.1(27% of his shots)
2021: 42.0% on 3.3(25%)
2022: 39.0% on 4.8(28%)
2023: 41.6% on 4.2(25%)
2024: 47.7% on 4.3(24%)
I have my thoughts on the actual volume, but if you are going to take those shots regardless, you might as well be good at them.
More related to this is how he even gets to those shots in the first place. He has been more methodical and patient in finding ways to get inside the paint to get a cleaner look. He shot 48.1% on open shots beyond 10ft and even 45.1% on tight shots. Both numbers would be the highest he had in the last three years.
This was from the first stretch to start the season, but it still shows the technique he was more comfortable with:
The way he approaches the pick-and-roll as a scorer has stood out in those ways(though I mentioned scorer for a reason and more on that later). That approach plus the way he’s been able to put defenders in jail more frequently has paid off.
All of that combined with the better floater, better pull up in the paint, and better methods meant that he scored 0.96 points per possession on 6.3 PNRs. He had a 45% FG and 50% eFG.
Over the years:
2020: 0.71 / 34.4% / 39.2%
2021: 0.91 / 44.2% / 50.5%
2022: 0.88 / 41.5% / 46.2%
2023: 0.93 / 43.7% / 50.8%
2024: 0.96 / 45.0% / 50.4%
He’s having his best season as a pick and roll ball handler.
There are two things that do hold him back here, especially when it comes to being a scorer. The first is how much of the shots are pull up 2s, and not ones that are in the paint(though that itself is an issue because despite the floater range being 50% for him, that’s still an inefficient shot in general).
Over 17% of his offense comes in the mid-range and that’s where he’s shooting 39.2%. So, when you combine that with his “efficient” paint shots, it 43% of his offense comes in that area, but that averages out at 46%. Nearly half of his shots period comes at 0.92 points per shot. That’s a big reason why he’s that inefficient(even if the number itself isn’t bad).
I had some words on all of that and what he could do to change here:
Where I talked about what each player should add to the game. Or here:
Where I talked about his role and how he could adapt his shot diet.
Because that’s all that it comes down to. It’s his shot selection and shot diet. That’s the issue. That remains on of the bigger reasons why his season has been so disappointing. It’s still prioritising going for those mid-range shots, long 2s, and primarily getting those shots off the dribble.
A lot of it has to do with him never embracing that off ball role. Even when he was a rookie, that never was a thing. He never had more than 30% of his shots as catch and shoot 3s, which makes no sense given how good he is a shooter.
I don’t buy it that it’s because of the roster construction or what the team needs to be good because he never been a high usage guy off the catch. Even players in a similar archetype like CJ McCollum, who just had his most efficient season, made that shift.
That to me, is all about buying in initially. He does have the skillset. I don’t know how effective he’d be doing so, but he can certainly be better.
But that does mean becoming a better off-ball shooter. A lot of his 3s have either been off handoffs looking to get him the ball that way, or standstill C&S. I just posted a lot about Robinson’s 3pt shooting and his “off ball” even if it’s C&S too, it involves a lot more movement. That’s not the case for Herro. He is very still, lacks that constant motion or it comes sporadically, and it’s not in the way an off-ball shooter moves.
Instead, he gets more shots like this:
That’s still good. I’d still prefer those shots over the pull ups. He shouldn’t have more % of his shots as pull up 2s than 3s. It doesn’t make sense for him to do so. But look at his 3pt % on different touch times(<2 sec / 2-6s / 6+)
2020: 42.8%(31% of shots) / 33.8%(13%) / 25%(4%)
2021: 38.9%(26%) / 25.7%(10%) / 42%(6)
2022: 42.9%(22%) / 37.0%(11%) / 34.3%(6%)
2023: 38.4%(27.7%) / 40.7%(13%) / 30.0%(7.2%)
2024: 42.5%(29%) / 36.5%(12%) / 35.3%(5%)
He’s a much better and more consistent shooter when he doesn’t start or hold the ball for too long. That’s where the shift needs to be back to off-ball.
This is where all of this hurts him as a scorer and being more efficient because that does matter to a greater extent if you’re putting up over 15 shot per game.
But what hurts him the most is not being able to pressure the rim at all or get to the line to make up the difference.
There are flashes at times where he’s able to get by defenders and turn the corner. There are stretches throughout the year where it does look like he’s being more aggressive or physical. For the most part, that remains a significant issue that I can’t see magically change.
Here are the % of his shots at the rim, his FG%, and FTr:
2020: 15.8% / 57.0% / .158
2021: 20.2% / 64.5% / .167
2022: 17.3% / 61.3% / .195
2023: 13.2% / 64.6% / .164
2024: 11.1% / 52.4% / .151
This is exactly not what you want to see. His rim frequency is going down, his finishing falling off completely, and getting to the line at such a low rate. I tried to find the positives in all of this for this deep dive, as I have for everyone else, but when there are so many trends that show decline this, where is the positives that you could spin?
On that note, I have rewatched some of the shots he had in that 2021 season where it was his best finishing season, and a lot of it does feel mental. There were many shots at the rim that I just know that they would’ve been a pull up or a floater.
Whether it’s injuries or simply being cautious of them made him shift that mindset of attacking for those paints, it is an issue. This just anecdotally, but that is something that I experienced. After coming back from injuries, I have consciously or subconsciously went away from attacking for jump shots, and that has become a habit.
But even if we take those two best seasons in 2021 and 2022, he ranked 264th in rim FGA per 100 and 350th in rim freq.
That would also be less of an issue if he was miles ahead as a passer. Per BBall-Index, here are his grades amongst on-ball players in the last three years:
That’s not looking good for someone that is often leading the team in touches. That’s again one of the areas where the improvement is there, but it’s not significant enough to push him above that makes a considerable difference in how it impacts the team.
There are still plenty of the same habits too when it comes to his passing where he’s choosing a contested shot over making the right kick. That was even more apparent earlier in the season. There is a switch that’s is on be a scorer first. Though I should note, he’s still a clear better passer above most off-ball players in lesser roles. That’s where he would have an advantage in that role.
All of the signs clearly point out that he doesn’t have the skill set to play the way he is at this volume. So, let’s also look at his skillset through a lens of in a lesser role and usage.
This is where I still can’t seem to buy the idea that if you bring in a point guard to put him in the “right” role and situation, then everything will be perfect.
We already mentioned that he’s never been mainly a catch-and-shoot guy even when he was a rookie with an established good point guard. He was already having the PNR be his most used play type in each season. He was already needing the ball to be maximised.
A quick side note. Let’s quickly see what’s needed for a role player on offense using both Robinson and Jaquez as examples. Role players need to be efficient and can make it work without the ball. If you’re only using a few possessions to score, you need to make them count by having them be high percentage shots. You also need to be able to provide rim pressure off ball whether through cuts or beating closeouts. Then, you also need to be a good finisher period. On top of that, you do need to be a respectable passer that can make plays.
Herro has 1 and a half of those things. He does have the skillset to be an efficient shooter with adjustments to being more off the catch instead of on ball. He also does have the passing in a lesser role.
He doesn’t have the willingness to be active off ball to get 3s or be constantly moving to get easy cuts. And even then, he doesn’t have the skill to finish efficiently at the rim.
Related to that, him drawing defenses where he can beat the closeout more often than not end in him only getting a pull up jumper, a floater, or gets to the paint without the defense needing to shift entirely. Let’s also ignore that there are only a handful of videos of him finishing off cuts. That in itself is an issue — though that hasn’t always been a thing. He was much better in the past.
Amongst guards with at least 1 2pt with touch time of less than 2s, he’s 103rd out of 104 players in FG%. He’s not converting anything. Those shots are ones that are created for him or he’s doing the cutting etc. For comparison, Robinson shoots 68.7%, Jaquez shoots 65.9%, and Herro shoots 45.8%. Even in prior seasons, he shot 53.7%, 59.3%, 59.0%, and 48.3%. It’s tough to be an efficient role player if you can’t finish off assisted shots.
So, where are we left with Herro heading into this season?
It’s tough. For this to all work out, one of two things must happen and one is just as likely as the other.
We either go down the route where we see a completely improved Herro with a different mentality as both as a scorer and a passer. We see a shot diet that’s more efficient. He suddenly is able to get by defenders with ease, turn the corner consistently, provide rim pressure, and is more physical to draw fouls. And improves significantly as a passer who can lead an offense on-ball.
Or we go down the other route where it’s Herro changing his game drastically, more drastically than what we’ve seen Robinson do.
These are the playtypes for Herro and some other players that he should at least be closer to in how they’re being used. He shouldn’t have near third of his possessions be used as a PNR guy. He shouldn’t have one of the lowest spot ups. Ideally, that all should simply flip. That simple change could make everything so different and better.
That’s the only realistic way I could see change. If it’s another marginal improvement around the margins that doesn’t address the biggest weaknesses and he remains in the same role with the same usage and how he gets the offense, it will be another long season.
I do wonder what the reluctance is to see Herro as a player who should be closer to those players in terms of how they’re used. Because everything when it comes to basketball, it all points to that direction. The only thing that would point the other way is simply using the 20ppg argument, that he’s young, and not wanting to accept that he’s not that guy.