Around the Arc: The Nuggets' Offensive Issues, Early Finals Predictions, Suns Are Weird

Denver's 3pt rate causing issues, trying to predict who can make the finals very early, some conversation about the Suns

Hi, & welcome to Around the Arc. A semi-regular thoughts and discussion about anything that is going around the league whether it's trades or free agency right now or anything I found interesting enough to just talk about. Here, I'll be looking further into what's happened and provide that extra context, analysis, and stats, and simply dig a bit deeper into what's happened.

Denver’s Offensive Issues

So, I just read this piece from Zach Lowe, and it talked about the Denver Nuggets in general. It talked about their off-season, them losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, how to address that, and the thing that stood out the most was the points about their offense.

Now, why would we have a discussion about the Nuggets’ offense? They’re the Nuggets lead by arguably the best offensive player in the world!

To see how absurd the Nuggets’ offense is when Nikola Jokic is on the floor, simply look at this. Per Cleaning the Glass:

• 2024: 124.5 offensive rating(+8.9 better than average)

• 2023: 125.4(+10.3)

• 2022: 118.5(+6.2)

• 2021: 121.5(+8.7)

In the last four seasons, the lowest one is 118.5 in 2022, which back then would’ve been clear number one(ahead of the number one Utah Jazz at 117.6). So, why should there be a conversation?

Here are the stats in the playoffs:

• 2024: 113.9

• 2023: 121.6

• 2022: 111.6

• 2021: 117.4

Of course, it would be an insane standard to hold the Nuggets to what they did in the regular season to easily translate in the playoffs. If they were to constantly have a 120+ ORTG in the playoffs, even with Jokic on, then I think that would easily push him near GOAT conversations.

But in these playoffs, there was a considerable drop, compared to what they did in the championship year. A lot of that has to do with Jamal Murray not playing like the “playoff” Murray that he was and that limits them a lot.

The bigger point of discussion was this:

It all has to do with their 3pt rate and foul drawing. As elite as they are in other areas, they have a math problem — similar to what we’ve seen from the Suns.

So, let’s dig deeper into this issue. A side note, all of the stats are with Jokic on because matters a lot.

I did look into this before in January:

It was looking at all of top teams’ ORTG profile with their best player on. The trend was already showing hard there. Low 3pt rate and low free throw rate. Almost at the bottom, yet, they were near the top still.

In general, I do think that is a good sign. To be able to have an elite offense without the variance or one of the highest efficient shots is great stuff. But I don’t know if it can be the thing to have. There needs to be a balance.

Firstly, let’s look at the Nuggets’ profile over the years:

Here’s also how other the top four teams with their best player look like in the last 2 playoffs:

Also, for a comparison, here are the league averages for those stats in 2024 & 2023:

• ORTG: 115.7 & 115.3

• 2pt%: 54.5% & 54.8%

• 3pt%: 36.5% & 36.0%

• 3PAr: 39.5% & 38.7%

• eFG%: 54.6% & 54.5%

• TS%: 57.9% & 58.1%

• Rim freq: 29.4% & 29.7%

• Short mid-range: 22.5% & 22.3%

• Long mid-range: 8.6% & 9.2%

• Corner 3pt: 10.1% & 9.7%

• ATB 3pt: 29.3% & 29.0%

When it comes to their 3pt shooting, it is quite under league average, but they still made it up with their high rim rate, elite long mid-range shooting and free throws.

Both things can’t happen. You can’t have a very low 3pt rate at only 34% but then also have a 0.178 free throw rate. Compare that to their title run where it was 0.267 — their second highest. That’s down to both Jokic and Murray dropping in these playoffs:

• Jokic: 0.336 → 0.291

• Murray: 0.198 → 0.104

When it comes to their 3pt shooting:

• Jokic: 0.184 → 0.217

• Murray: 0.363 → 0.293

• Porter Jr: 0.560 → 0.555

• Caldwell-Pope: 0.568 → 0.640

It mostly comes down to Murray. He needs to change his shot diet for more 3s. There’s no reason a great 3pt shooter shouldn’t at least have their 3pt rate in their 40s.

It has to change, though and it’s mostly down to the comparison between other teams. At some point, the math will just go against you. All other teams will get more efficient looks, will make up any difference with 3s or free throws.

Here’s also their FTr and 3PAr by series in the last 2 years:

Free throw rate:

• Vs Wolves: 0.248 vs 0.293 — NO

• Vs Suns: 0.262 vs 0.216 — YES

• Vs Lakers: 0.229 vs 0.318 — NO

• Vs Heat: 0.285 vs 0.175 — YES

• Vs Lakers: 0.173 vs 0.222 — NO

• Vs Wolves: 0.214 vs 0.269 — NO

3pt rate:

• Vs Wolves: 0.369 vs 0.390 — NO

• Vs Suns: 0.311 vs 0.318 — NO

• Vs Lakers: 0.408 vs 0.315 — YES

• Vs Heat: 0.325 vs 0.384 — NO

• Vs Lakers: 0.377 vs 0.348 — YES

• Vs Wolves: 0.366 vs 0.393 — NO

This still feels like a good enough issue to have. They have the personnel. Those players have the skillset. It’s adapting the approach and style. And they also still have one of the best offensive players ever, that makes life easier.

Early Predictions on Who’s Making the Finals

After listening to Zach Lowe and reading one of his articles, he asked if you were to pick one West team to make the finals, who would it be?

A quarter of the response was immediately going to the Oklahoma City Thunder. That’s a fair pick and it probably should be more common. They were the number one seed. They reached the semi-finals. They have a young core that are all likely to get better. They have plenty of assets to make necessary moves. AND they also improved in the off-season with the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein and Josh Giddey.

Everyone else that didn’t pick the Thunder, it was a mix of everyone else — Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, or Denver Nuggets.

So, I decided to have a discussion of my own trying to predict who’s coming out of the West:

Then, I also decided to do the same thing for the East. That was a bit(very) easy to do. The Boston Celtics was an easy pick. That’s why I went through who might be the biggest threat to the Celtics and came away with three teams — Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, and New York Knicks.

Be sure to check those out!

What to Make of the Suns?

I have no idea how to feel about the Phoenix Suns heading into this season. Some part of me still feels like they definitely should be considered in the upper tier solely because of the offensive talent that they have. But I still feel like they have a lot of questions around them when it comes to making a deep run.

They also haven’t been helping themselves by getting swept in the first round to the Wolves. A team getting swept like that and not making significant changes will have a lot of work to get through.

They were already going to have a lot of work last season trying to integrate both Jusuf Nurkic and Bradley Beal. That wasn’t made easy with Beal only playing 53 games. But the trio of Beal-Booker-Durant still managed to play 41 games together and were +4.2 with a 119.9 ORTG. Add Nurkic to that mix and it’s even better with 38 games and were +5.1 with a 121.3 ORTG — it clearly was working where that quartet was +9.1 with a 125.8 ORTG in 615 minutes on the court.

Even when looking at the individual stats in those 615 minutes:

• Booker: 28.8 points per 75 possessions on 66.3% eFG & 69.0% TS with 26.7% USG

• Durant: 19.7 points on 53.1% & 56.1% with 23.2%

• Beal: 18.6 points on 68.9% & 70.6% with 18.5%

Outside of Durant’s efficiency being subpar, they’re still steamrolling through everyone offensively. They even held up defensively with Nurkic. That was meant to be one of questions after acquiring him and yet they had a 113.3 DRTG with him on.

Something is clearly working for them. It’s not all doom and gloom as some may think. Yes, they’re paying a lot of money for this team. They exercised all options when it comes to using their assets. They’re locked into this team.

But a lot of the regular stats all point to them still being in a good spot to compete. Being locked into this team and paying that much isn’t going to be seen as that big of a deal if they can legitimately compete.

And yet, in the playoffs, that was the whole different story, though. They got swept and it wasn’t that big of a fight either. This was the Suns net rating with:

• Durant on: -20.4 in 168 minutes

• Booker on: -13.3 in 166 minutes

• Beal on: -16.5 in 154 minutes

• All three on: -20.2 in 125 minutes

• All three, including Nurkic: -26.9 in 77 minutes

With all three on they had a 108.5 ORTG and 100.0 with all four. What was once an unstoppable offense that had a near 126 ORTG, was nowhere to be seen. Granted, the Wolves defense was elite, but to that extent? To the extent where three of the best offensive players can’t even reach “bad” levels instead of disgusting?

What’s even more surprising is that both Booker and Durant were scoring efficiently together! If you look at their individual stats, you wouldn’t think they were an issue when it comes to putting the ball in the basket. But as a team, with those two:

• 110.8 ORTG(would rank 26th in regular season)

• 52.5% 2pt(27th)

• 37.8% 3pt(8th) with 36.3% 3pt rate(27th)

• 54.0% eFG(16th) & 58.5% TS(13th)

• 62.0% at the rim(28th) with 31.8% frequency(5th)

• 39.6% in the short mid range(28th) with 19.3% frequency(28th)

• 48.4% in the long mid range(2nd) with 12.5% frequency(1st)

• 27.4 free throws per 100(1st)

• 22.2 assists(30th) to 15.7 turnovers(29th)

Even their overall playtypes that’s more about self-creation in the playoffs were great!

• Isolation: 9.7% freq / 1.15 points per possession / 55.2% eFG

• PNR ball handler: 17.0% / 1.04 / 54.1%

• PNR roll man: 6.8% / 1.29 / 66.7%

• Post ups: 3.9% / 1.19 / 57.1%

For the most part, they weren’t getting those easy looks and weren’t getting up 3s. That’s why the shot one of the worst at the rim. That’s why they had a low 3pt rate. it’s tough to win in 2024 relying on those tough mid-range jumpers even if you’re elite at them. That’s why the Suns were technically doing great across the board in all of those stats but you can’t live on that diet.

That’s where the issue still remains for me. Are they going to switch up their shot diet? Will they be able to get easier looks? Are they going to fix their turnover issues and fourth quarter offense?

They just feel very unknown to me when making these projections or predictions.

Around the Arc

To finish up, here are some quick thoughts about anything that has been going around the league whether it’s news, scores, highlights, specific plays, posts, articles, or tweets that I found interesting

So, Lauri Markkanen got his contract renegotiated. It got him 30.0% of the cap for this upcoming season at $42.176 million, then four more years after that at 30.0%, 27.11%, 26.63%, 26.01%. He will be making almost $50 million on average and that feels high for a player that has made an all-star team once.

But in these last two years, Markkanen has been one of the most efficient players out there and he’s been doing in various ways. Here are a bunch of fun stats from this year:

• 55.8% from 2pt

• 39.8% from 3pt on 11.5 3s per 100

• 57.8% eFG & 62.2% TS

• 70.1% at the rim with 22.9% frequency

• 45.4% in the short mid range on 23.2%

• 9.4 points off catch and shoot

• 61.5% eFG on catch and shoot

• 66.8% from 2pt with touch time <2

• 1.35 PPP on 1.8 poss as a roll man & 69.8% eFG

• 1.12 on 3.9 spot ups & 55.3% eFG

• 1.53 on 1.8 cuts & 76.3% eFG

• 1.12 on 3.6 off-screen & 55.3% eFG

That last one is the fun one. This is a 7fter being third in possessions coming off screens and being good at it. His offensive versatility as an off-ball weapon is elite.