Around the Arc: Warriors' Defense, Curry, Undefeated Cavaliers & Thoughts on Everything Else
Welcome to Around the Arc!
Around the Arc is a semi-regular thoughts and discussion about anything that is going around the league. It’s everything that I found interesting that I want to talk about. It will be diving into particular games, breaking down key performances or takeaways from games, and it will be looking further into what’s going on by providing that extra context, film, stats, and analysis.
With us already being around the 10-game mark for each team, there’s a lot that that has been going on. So, for this week, I’ll be going through a whole bunch of things that have caught my eye, anything that I want to discuss, look into, or ramble about absolutely anything.
Some of it may be important and some of may be trivial. Some of may be big picture analysis and some of it may be focusing on a very specific thing in the moment. I may point some things out that may not matter a single bit to the team or a player.
Warriors Thoughts: Curry & Their Defense
Somehow the Golden State Warriors are 7-2. They are fourth in net rating with +9.6. they have the eighth-best offense and a second-best defense. They are one of five teams to have a top 10 offense and top 10 defense — joining the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, and the Houston Rockets.
I don’t know how many expected this kind of start from the Warriors, especially with Stephen Curry also missing time. Right now, he’s seventh(!) in minutes player and they lost two games. Here’s a real kicker, though, the Warriors are +7.9 with him on and are +13.6 without him. That is absolutely unreal. Whenever people make jokes that we’re living in a simulation, this is one of those signs!
Before this year, the Warriors have been positive without Curry only twice. Last year, with +2.3, and in 2018 with +1.2. Combine those two numbers, multiply by three and you still are short. We have never seen a Warriors team be this good without him.
Through nine games, though, a lot of it is still simply a small sample size that can easily be influenced by the strength of competition and shooting variance(more on that shortly).
But they’re also +7.9 with him on the court! This is what it was in the last three years: +2.4, +5.7 and +10.1. The best since they won a title.
BUT that also doesn’t make sense when you check out Curry’s individual numbers. He is averaging 19.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per 75 possessions on 56.6% eFG and 63.1% TS. The number that stands out the most is the scoring volume. That is the lowest per possession since 2014. That correlates with the lowest shot attempts since 2014.
His efficiency is still at his usual levels, and a lot of that is due to shooting 40.8% on 11.1 3s per 75 possessions. However, his 2pt percentage is the lowest since 2013. His inside scoring has been abysmal:
10/21(47%) within 4ft
4/10(40%) 4-14ft
3/3(100%) 14-3pt
That rim finishing is concerning. He is getting to the rim at the highest frequency at a career-high, though, with over 25% of his shots there.
He also has by far the highest turnover percentage at 19.0% but is making up by having the fourth-highest assist percentage.
But somehow the Warriors are still winning a lot. And that is with their second-best defense. That’s where some of the small samples also pop out.
Here’s a weird stat. The Warriors with Draymond Green on, have a 114.6 defensive rating, which would rank 15th. Without him, they have a 99.3 DRTG, which would rank second, where they’re at now.
But that’s where their rank gets boosted. Their season average is 107.6, 114.6 with Green, and 99.3 without him. So, what is their defense? How are they average with the best defender and almost tied with the Thunder without him?
With Green, on vs off, the opponent:
2pt%: 50.4 vs 52.4
3pt%: 34.1 vs 28.0
3pt rate: 45.2 vs 39.8
eFG%: 50.7 vs 48.3
TS%: 54.8 vs 52.4
Offensive rebound%: 32.3 vs 27.7
Free throws per 100: 23.5 vs 24.3
Turnovers per 100: 14.2 vs 19.2
Rim(within 4ft) FG%: 58.8 vs 64.2
Rim freq%: 25.5 vs 27.2
Short mid(4-14ft) FG%: 45.7 vs 41.4
Short mid freq%: 20.1 vs 24.9
Long mid(14-3pt) FG%: 37.2 vs 46.3
Long mid freq%: 9.2 vs 8.0
A few things stand out. They force a lot of turnovers in those non-Green minutes that would contribute a lot to their defense. Another huge one is that 3-point percentage. 28%. At this point, I’d assume that is doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
They are 2nd in opponent 3pt% on wide open 3s with 31.7% where 46.0% of their opponent 3s are. But they’re also 24th in opponent 3pt% on open 3s with 37.0% with 41.6% of the 3s. That should stabilize one way or the other with more samples.
Also, with Green on, they are one of the best rim protecting teams and deterring shots in the paint.
So, I don’t know how to feel about the Warriors on either end. Things don’t feel right. A lot of the stats are still in such a small sample that there can be so many contradicting ones, especially on the defensive end.
You also have small sample relating to the players. I don’t think we can expect Buddy Hield shooting, “checks notes”, 49.4% on 16.2 3s per 100. He’s third in volume and 14th in percentage regardless of volume. That is absurd.
Right now, the Warriors are still a TBD to me.
Cavaliers Thoughts: How are they undefeated
The one and only team that is still undefeated. Who had the Cavaliers breaking the franchise record for the best start to the season on their bingo card?
Just think about that. Not a single LeBron James led Cavaliers team had the kind of start they had. They are undefeated. They are third in net rating with +13.8. They are the second best offense. They are the fifth best defense. Dominant. There are so many reasons for this too.
Surprisingly enough(and this is points per game bias), there isn’t a single player that is having a WOW scoring season. There isn’t a player that is simply dominating by having wild stat lines or crazy performances. It’s everyone doing their job.
Now, there are also players playing much, much better to what they’ve done previously. And that’s where we’re starting.
Darius Garland is having a career season. He’s averaging 24.9 points and 8.1 assists per 75 possession on 66.0% eFG and 68.3% TS. How much of that is small sample and simply a hot start is TBD.
One number that will obviously drop is likely the 3pt shooting. He’s shooting 47.5% from deep on 11.8 3s per 100. This is the first time in his career that he’s taking double digits 3s per 100. This is also the first time that he has a 3pt rate of over 50%. Over half of his shots are 3s, which likely also coincides with the second lowest free throw rate and rim rate.
On the other hand, he can’t miss inside either. His volume has dropped inside but the efficiency has jumped a lot. Here’s his shot profile compared to last year:
Rim: 66.6%(19.2% freq) vs 59.4(21.4%)
Short mid-range: 66.6%(17.3%) vs 44.7%(25.8%)
Long mid-range: 42.1%(12.2%) vs 44.3%(10.4%)
This is the first time he’s reached at least 60% at the rim.
Digging deeper into the shot profile, you can see why and how he’s been more efficient:
Catch & Shoot 3pt freq: 17.0% → 26.9%
Pull up 2s: 18.9% → 18.6%
Pull up 3s: 24.9% → 24.4%
Less than 10ft: 38.1% → 30.1%
He’s taking the most off-the-catch shots in his career. Combine that with more pull-up 3s than 2s in the last two years and small sample shooting variance, and everything is going well for him and it’s amplified with the shot diet.
That’s why the Cavaliers have a 128.5 offensive rating with him on and that drops to 114.6 without him. He has been playing like an All-NBA level guard.
Donovan Mitchell feels like he’s having kind of an underwhelming season, especially if you just look at his stat line. He’s dropped in points, and assists, has a worse 2-point shooting, gets to the line less, career-low rim rate, a career-low assist percentage, and has the second-highest turnover percentage. The only thing that has gone up for him is the 3-point shooting, where he’s shooting 40.5%.
One of the bigger stories has been Evan Mobley, who’s continuing to look a lot better each year. He has upped his scoring, maintained his efficiency, getting to the line, and upped his usage.
When looking at the lineups:
Their top four players together haven’t been that great, especially in comparison to other lineups. The best ones come when it’s only two of the top four — one is elite offensively and the other is elite defensively. Some of it is mostly noise still. Still, they have a good foundation that works on both ends of the floor.
Thunder Thoughts: Are they the best team?
This was a common take throughout the off-season that they may be the best team or at least rival the Celtics. Right now, they are 8-1 and are at the top of the league when it comes to net rating with +17.0. They are also the best defense by far.
It’s not up to debate right now:
Ridiculous. Even if you consider the game sample size to start the season:
On the other hand, they’re in the middle of the pack offensively. They rank 14th in ORTG, 17th in eFG%, 4th in TOV%, 28th in ORB%, and 29th in FTr. I’m not sure what they’re doing offensively or what is that made them drop all the way from third last year.
Some of it is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not having the same kind of season he had last year. Some of his scoring and efficiency have dropped. His free throw rate has declined, which also coincides with the team dropping a lot. Both Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams(mainly Williams) have seen their efficiency hit too.
That’s not to say they have declined as a player, but it all adds up to their offense not being as elite as last season. We’re still at the part of the season where it’s too early to look into any shooting numbers, both in a positive or negative way.
With all three on, the Thunder are +8.9 in 151 minutes with a 115.3 offensive rating. Some of that could be their 3-point shooting dragging it down, as they’re shooting 34.2% because they’re also shooting 58.1% from inside.
It obviously hasn’t mattered because of the elite, elite defense, but it’s going to be interesting to see how that looks further into the season. Is the drop-off offensively legit? How much will that bounce back? On the flip side, how much of their defense is also legit? They’re not only playing at an elite level at the moment but are a historic defense.
Oh, and we still haven’t seen them with Isaiah Hartenstein. That is going to change things a lot.
So, to answer the question at the top, it should be yes. They have found a way to be one of the most dominant defenses and their ceiling offensively is all within their control.
Everything Else
To finish up, here are some random thoughts around the league.
I had no idea that the Phoenix Suns have only lost once. They are 8-1, but they are also 12th in net rating. That doesn’t add up… but it also does. Some of the games include:
114-113 win over the Mavericks
115-112 win over the Heat
118-116 win over the 76ers
116-113 win over the Clippers
That’s four games all won by three points or less. Their four other wins: 6, 7, 4, and 12. Having one double-digit win is eye-raising. They are tied first for most clutch games with seven.
But even with their stars, they aren’t that much better. With Durant, Beal, and Booker on, they are only +4.3. Add Nurkic to it, they are -3.3 — the trio without Nurkic are +17.8.
Something is clearly not working there. They are winning games, but it being on a single possession is concerning. Winning clutch games just to rack up wins isn’t a good sign of a good team.
On the other hand, Durant is still Durant. It amazes me how he’s 36 years old and still doing what he’s doing right now. It doesn’t feel right that I was still in school when he was stabbing teams in the heart with his clutch transition 3s and he’s doing that now.
Fun stat! After a down season last year, he’s now shooting 61.9% from 2pt, which is a career-high. This is only the third time he shot over 60% from 2pt. Oh, and he’s shooting 42.9% from 3pt, which is… the second-highest in his career.
In my season preview for the Suns, I have written this:
His self-creation has declined a lot. It is a small sample right now, but here are some stats this year:
Isolation: 1.18 points per possession with 61.5% FG% and 63.5% eFG%
PNR: 0.90 with 44.1% and 48.5%
Post ups: 0.91 with 44.4%
Off-screen: 0.87 with 38.5% and 50.0%
Spot ups: 0.77 with 33.3% and 43.3%
So, it’s still a bit up and down. His isolation scoring bounced back but everything else is still around the same as last year.
The standings are weird right now. Why am I seeing the Detroit Pistons and the Charlotte Hornets in the top six? Why am I also seeing the Chicago Bulls as the seventh seed? Why are the Milwaukee Bucks 13th… behind the Washington Wizards?
Everything is basically a mess.
The West is different kinds of messy. 11 teams have at least five wins. That means the Sacramento Kings are now outside of the play-in, but can easily be top-four with one win. No one has really separated themselves at all.
Outside of the Cavaliers and the Celtics in the East, no one else is in a tier of their own, at least when it comes to the standings.
It is still early days, of course, but a lot of it is teams that should be bad aren’t and the teams that should be good aren’t. The Bucks and 76ers being in the bottom 13 changes stuff because they shouldn’t be that bad. How long are they going to be that bad?
With the 76ers, you at least have the excuse of not being healthy. But with the Bucks(yes, they are also missing Khris Middleton), it’s mostly been that they’re bad.
The Knicks have also been underwhelming being only 4-4. Similar to the Pacers being 4-5. What is going on there?
With the West, so, so many teams that are all clustered next to each other and I have absolutely zero idea of what I think will happen. There is nothing that can predict anything that can happen.
Some teams that I’m kind of surprised by in a good way are the Grizzlies, the Wolves, and the Warriors.
Some teams that I’m surprised by in a bad way are the Raptors, the Mavericks, and the Pelicans.
Some players that I’m intrigued by, impressed or buying more stock: Edwards, Holmgren, Barrett, Davion Mitchell, Morant, Banchero, Powell, Randle
Christian Braun can freaking finish. He’s shooting 58.7% from inside the arc. He’s shooting 68.7% at the rim with over half of his shots there! His finishing has been and the most I’ve been impressed with his game whenever watching
Barrett is making it look like last year was legit, especially his passing. He has a 31.4% assist percentage with only a 12.7% turnover. He is averaging 11.1 potential assists. That’s up from 5.7 last year
Randle has a 65.7% TS with 25.1% usage
How is Edwards still shooting 48.1% on over 15.6 3s per 100? Is he now just a sniper?