Boston Celtics 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits
Season & Off-Season Recap
This was a season for the Boston Celtics. After making the moves they made last year, they ended up being the best team in the league and it wasn’t even close. It was not close through 82 games. It was not close on their way to the finals. It was not even close in the finals.
They were dominant. How dominant?
They had a +11.3 net rating with the best offense and third-best defense. It’s the fact they were legit on both ends. Not many teams in NBA history were as good as they were on both ends.
Per PBP Stats, since 2001, they had the sixth-best relative offense at +7.54 better than average. Their defense wasn’t as dominant and it wasn’t even close at 80th best with +3.81. But when you look at the most dominant offensive teams, they weren’t close to being even that good defensively.
There were eight teams that were at least +7 on offense. Out of those teams, only the 2016 Warriors were at least +2 on defense with +2.84. The rest of the teams were negative. Out of 40 teams that were at least +5 on offense, only three were +3 on defense: 2015(+4.41), 2017 Warriors(+4.77), and 2013 Thunder(+3.54). The Kevin Durant Warriors are the only competition for being the most balanced, dominant team on either end.
That’s the season that they had.
There’s not much to say, honestly. They won a title with this core and there’s nothing at the moment that shows that they can’t be as dominant again.
Even individually, everyone was playing at a great or elite level relative to their role and expectations. From their stars and their key starters to their bench players and role players, they all played extremely well.
Their off-season was running it back. They brought back and extended pretty much everyone. They added a couple of 2-way players and drafted Baylor Scheierman. Those are the only additions. But that’s all they needed. They weren’t in the position(yet) to make any drastic decisions on what to do with their core. They were set up last season and at least this year.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Celtics?
Will they remain as motivated to go hard through 82 games again?
The big situation with Porzingis and Horford
How much better can both Brown and Tatum get?
Is there more to White?
I mean, what is there to talk about the Celtics? They are the defending champions. They are a well-balanced team on either end. They completely dominated the league. They already worked on the issues that hurt them in previous years. Right now, they should be easily the favorite to win again — yes, I know that was probably said about the Nuggets too last year.
I do wonder if that is going to carry on. Teams that win a championship do drop off a bit the following year, especially if said team was also that dominant en route to it.
Take the Warriors in 2017. They made it look it was no competition. They had a +12.7 net rating with the best offense and defense that won 67 games. That dropped to +7.2 and won 58 games the following season.
The Miami Heat in 2013 won 66 games with a +9.2 net. That dropped to +5.8 and 54 wins. The Los Angeles Lakers in 2009 won 65 games with a +9.2 net. That dropped to +5.7 and 57 wins.
Every situation is different. Some of those teams did lose players and weren’t entirely the same. But it has been said of a championship hangover across sports. It’s a good chance that teams will likely take their foot off the gas more often.
That’s not to say that they won’t be as dominant or shouldn’t be the favorite. Their approach to the regular season might be different. They know that they need to go far in the playoffs. That’s where prioritizing load management and health through 82 games might come up. It’s not being concerned about pushing to win as many games as possible.
You also don’t want to fall into bad habits either. Not every team can flip the switch that seamlessly. But this can also be a good season to work on new things. They did that towards the end of the season last year.
But at the same time, how do you balance that and wanting to have a home-court advantage through the playoffs? How important is that going to be for them? Will that take priority or can they experiment with new gameplans?
Regardless, once the playoffs start, this is the team to beat. That also doesn’t mean this whole regular season doesn’t matter or that there aren’t things to watch out for.
The biggest one is health, particularly with their bigs.
There are already some question marks about when will Porzingis come back fully healthy. Is he going to be ready for the start? How much will that matter?
He did only play 57 games last year and they still did well without him. They went the entire playoffs almost entirely without him. Can that happen again?
The Celtics were +10.6 with him on the court with a 122.6 offense in 1690 minutes. Without him, they played better at +11.9 with a 123.8 offense in 2276 minutes. This kind of shows that he’s a luxury. What he gives them isn’t a need for 90% of the teams. What he brings on both ends of the floor is it raises their ceiling against the elite of the elite teams.
A big reason why they’ve been so successful is because they still have Horford. I don’t know how he remains playing at this level at 37 years old. He shot 42% from 3pt on over 7 3s per 100 — he also shot 44% the year before on over 8. He’s a 46% shooter from the corners in these two seasons. He’s a big reason why they can play this 5 out offense with his spacing and smart decision-making.
Offensively, there’s nothing that he does wrong. He plays the role perfectly I don’t know how many players could replicate that at his size, with his IQ and what he also brings on the defensive end.
They made the whole run with Horford as their main big in the playoffs. In the playoffs, the Celtics with Horford on were +12.2 with a 121.5 offense in 575 minutes. That dropped to only +2.5 with 112.0 offense in 342 minutes.
His defensive versatility was still showing. He was crucial in the finals being able to defend in space, switching out, and not giving up anything easily. He was working.
But he is 38 years old. At some point, even these older players that do age well and add things to their game to make them still effective in other ways will still decline. His defense is likely to take a hit. That didn’t look good in 2022 before bouncing back again this year.
They have two bigs that pose some kind of question mark or concern — health and age. They need both of them to raise their ceiling. It’s not going to be the end of the world through the season, but would also put a toll on other players doing their usual jobs and being in different roles.
They played at least 1000 minutes with one of them on or neither one — they were the best without them. That does show it’s not as big of a red alert. On the other hand, they had three different rotations playing at least 1000 minutes. Neither option was over-taxed. This is the whole point of having these players to give them flexibility.
If one of them is limited or hurt, that means over-relying only one of the options. Again, that may not matter in the regular season or against lesser teams, but it will be important vs the best competition.
In the playoffs, they were -5.4 in 214 minutes with neither on. A lot of their ceiling in the playoffs will hinge on their bigs.
With the rest of the team, what else can we see from them? There’s Holiday, White, Pritchard, and Hauser as the main rotation players. We saw what they could do in their perfect role and situation.
With Holiday, I don’t think there’s much potential for change or drastic improvements. To me, he is what he is, especially after this year. We’ve seen him in the role with the Bucks and playing a huge part in their championship. We also saw him in the Olympics playing a lesser role among superstars. And this year, we saw him in an off-ball role, similar to that being executed to perfection. He knows how to play his role.
He’s still only 34 years old, so I don’t predict any major decline. The all-defensive caliber defense should still be there. He’s been a 40% shooter in the last four seasons from 3pt. He’s a smart passer. He makes a lot of the Celtics offense work because of it. It’s going to be fun watching him play basketball again.
White is a curious one because he’s had three straight seasons of improvement. In each of his three seasons with the Celtics, his scoring went up, his usage went up, he became a better shooter on higher volume, and he’s been asked to do more, particularly on-ball.
Here are his tracking stats(touches per 36 / time of poss / avg sec / avg drib):
Playoffs 2024: 68.3 / 4.6 / 4.06 / 3.82
Regular season 2024: 68.4 / 4.3 / 4.17 / 3.92
Playoffs 2023: 54.4 / 2.5 / 3.58 / 2.91
Regular season 2023: 60.5 / 3.2 / 4.05 / 3.43
He is seeing more responsibility with the ball and being the ball handler. That’s a lot different compared to what they were doing in 2023. What’s the next step for him? Is there a next step? Defensively, we know what he is. He’s another all-defensive caliber player that can do so many different things.
Offensively, he’s an elite off-ball option. He scored 1.27 points per spot up in the regular season. He had a 63% eFG! In the playoffs, that kind of went up to 1.33 and 68% eFG.
What’s also interesting is that his frequency went from 28% to 38%. That’s the beauty of his game. He can do more through 82 games but when he needs to drop back to his role, he can easily do that and be more effective.
I wonder if that will continue or if we’re going to see a refined version of White.
There’s Pritchard, too who’s in a similar position. He has been improving. He has been getting more touches and responsibility and then in the playoffs just slides to his role. One fun stat that did pop up is he shoots 59% from 2pt but only 27% of it is assisted. He’s been a very efficient scorer inside the arc. Can he grow into that highly impactful role-player on both ends of the floor?
Hauser impressed me in these playoffs. Again, he had one of the more efficient 3pt shooting seasons. He shot 42% on over 13 3s per 100. That’s insane efficiency at that volume. That only dropped to 38% on 13 in the playoffs, which is still effective. He scores 1.21 with a 62% eFG on spot-ups, as well as 1.26 with 63% eFG off-screen.
But it was his defense that impressed me. He had many stretches in the playoffs where he held his own or made a very smart play that saved points.
I don’t know how likely it is for him to develop into more than a 3-point specialist. Right now over 83% of his shots are 3s and hasn’t been that efficient at the rim either. He’s not asked to do anything more than just shoot. But it could be more likely that he grows into a better defender. He is 6’8. There is potential there at that size. If he can develop into a neutral defender, that gives the Celtics more shooting with more defense with size.
Finally, there are the Jays. With the way the Celtics are built and how they run their offense, they aren’t dependent on their stars dominating. They still put up their usual stats and are just as impactful. The only thing is that the offense isn’t run through them in the same way as it does with other stars.
You can see that the Celtics didn’t get any worse with either of them off. The Celtics were +8.2 with Brown on and +16.0 without him. They were +10.9 with Tatum and +12.2 without him. They were always the best team, regardless of who was on or off.
But that doesn’t speak to their actual game. That’s just the blessing and the curse of having a balanced team and a system that is not do or die with one individual. That’s how teams ideally should be.
When it comes to their individual games and their development, that’s where we should still pay attention.
Tatum has been on the All-NBA first team for three straight years. Can he repeat that consistency? I’m not sure if he’s yet a player that is in the upper, upper tier of superstar-caliber players but he’s only 26 years old. There are clear pathways to reaching that level.
Can he be more consistent as a shooter because, man, that has been rough, especially in the playoffs? Can he fix some of the shot diets because, again, those stepback 3s when they aren’t falling are killers(they’re also killers when they do go in).
Can he adjust his shot diet? There shouldn’t be a reason a guy his size shouldn’t be higher in foul drawing or shots at the rim, especially in the Celtics context. Right now, he’s 40th in free throw rate with guys like Luka Doncic, Paolo Banchero, Damian Lillard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, DeMar DeRozan, and Jimmy Butler ahead. He also only has 28% of his shots at the rim, despite shooting above 70% in these two seasons.
Can he become a better shooter beyond shots at the rim inside the arc? Can he develop that as a counter? He’s shooting 37% beyond 4ft inside the arc.
Regardless of how successful the Celtics are, seeing whether Tatum can continue to improve his game to enter the top 5 levels in the world is going to be important.
Similar to Brown, how he continues to improve can make things a lot easier for the Celtics going forward. He’s already developed into one of the best second options in the league. He’s a clear All-Star who’s a borderline All-NBA talent in the right role.
He has improved his shooting and efficiency where he’s been consistently above average. One of the reasons for that is the elite play finishing from him. He shoots around 67% at the rim with over 31% of his shots there. He had a career year in the paint shooting 50% there with almost a quarter of his shots. He cuts. He finishes in transition. He does a lot that you want from a wing in an off-ball role.
But can we see more playmaking from him? Can we see better decision-making? How is he going to look if he’s the focal point? Here are some playmaking stats, per BBall-Index compared to on-ball players:
He’s not being asked to be in that role. There’s no volume as a passer. He doesn’t provide the highest quality or value from his passes. He grades out as pretty average.
That will be the biggest question for him this year. Can he take that leap?
This isn’t as important for the Celtics this year when it comes to their chances of repeating or remaining a legit contender for multiple years. At the same time, if these improvements do happen, that helps a lot.
Predictions
57-62 win
Floor(worst case scenario): 3rd seed with taking things easy
Ceiling(best case scenario): 1st seed with still being ahead of everyone
These predictions are going to be easy for them. Their success in the regular season depends entirely on their motivation and willingness to dominate each night.
There’s no reason to do so unless getting that home-court advantage is that important. But with another deep run coming their way, it does make sense to prioritize health and being fresh in the playoffs.
Even with that said, though, they should still be ahead of most teams period. I don’t see any other team in the East having as few questions as they do. The only question they have has to do with Horford and Porzingis, and even then, they can still be dominant without either of them.
A lot of this season may be just looking at their role players and seeing if they can provide something new and different. It’s experimenting with rotations, game plans, and schemes to see what they constantly look to improve — they’re obviously not perfect at every aspect. It’s a season of working around the edges to make themselves more dominant come playoff time.
And it’s looking at both Jays and how much they can continue to improve. That’s the most important part. If either of them takes a significant jump, it could be wraps.