Charlotte Hornets 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
These last two seasons have been tough for the Charlotte Hornets. It was just two seasons ago that they were over .500 and it looked like they were at least on the right track when it comes to being somewhat competitive for a play-in spot to potentially make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
That 43-win season in 2022 would actually be tied for the highest in the last 10 years — it would also be tied for fourth in the 21st century. Since then, in these two seasons, it hasn’t been going well and it’s all because of unfortunate events. This is simply a repeat of last year.
The main thing has been LaMelo Ball’s health. He played 58 games in these two seasons combined. That’s the reason that they were this bad winning only 21 games.
In Ball’s last healthy season in 2022, the Hornets were +1.1 with him on. In these two seasons, they were -6.5 and -10.7 without him. Even in these injury-riddled seasons, he still had a huge impact on offense, where the Hornets’ dropped from 114.7 to 108.8.
Outside of that, it was moving on from Terry Rozier, which got them a first-round pick out of that. It was moving on from PJ Washington too. Both moves just seemed out of nowhere.
With Rozier being traded 30 games in. Ball is playing only 22 games. The only other important thing during the season was Brandon Miller’s rookie season.
Their off-season was fairly straight forward too. The moves they made involved a bunch of guys getting waived, drafting Tidjane Salaun, and trading for Josh Green. Not much of the needle moves in either direction.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Hornets this season?
Ball is coming back and being healthy
How good can they be with Ball?
Miller’s second-year jump: How big of a difference maker can that be?
How will that duo look together?
Can they bounce back on defense?
The additions of Green
Salaun’s rookie season
The first and most important thing is Ball. He’s already been an all-star in just his second year.
The Hornets’ offense was getting a lot better with him playing. The year before he got drafted, their offense was -4.3pts worse than the league average. That improved to -1.4 in his rookie season and jumped all the way to +2.1 in his second season. He clearly has an impact on the offensive end.
Now, it’s the question of how different he will look from two years ago. That’s the thing to watch for. As good as he’s been so far in his career, there’s still a lot needed to continue to make those jumps.
He has improved significantly as a shooter compared to where he started as a rookie. In that second season, he shot 39% on over 11 3s per 100. That went up to 37% on over 14 last year and dipped to 35% on over 13 this year. What has remained the same is the volume.
Will he continue to make it at an efficient enough rate to make that a significant weapon for himself? That 3pt threat is what is going to make him a good enough creator at the moment.
Because he’s already a great passer. For his career, he has a 37% assist percentage. These are his playmaking grades compared to on-ball players in each season, per BBall-Index:
That is already elite. That combined with the 3pt shooting will be key for him.
But there are still plenty of improvements needed. Is he going to become a better finisher? He’s at 54% at the rim for his career. He gets there at a decent rate with around a quarter of his shots there, but he just can’t convert regularly. What makes it worse is he also doesn’t have a reliable in-between game. He’s a poor shooter in the paint and has no mid-range beyond that.
Those two questions will be the biggest for him this year. How much can he improve as a finisher at the rim and in around the paint? That’s what will make his impact even better.
We’ve already seen a team around Ball being capable of winning 40+ games and putting21 themselves in the position to compete for the play-in. Can they go back to that? Is he that good enough of a player to raise the floor that significantly?
That will also be made a lot easier if Miller continues to look good in his second season. In his rookie season, he averaged 19.8 points per 75 possessions on 55.2% TS.
One of the top things that stood out already is him shooting over 37% on 10 3s per 100. He’s 6ft 9 and is making shots off the catch(38%) and off the dribble(34%). He’s also shooting 47% on over 3 pull-up 2s! His shooting at that size is great.
He did have almost half of his 2s and over 91% of his 3s be assisted. With Ball back, that will likely go up and make his life a bit easier. Even this year, in limited sample size, Millers’ 2pt percentage was 54% in 361 minutes with Ball — compared to 49% without him.
On that note, Miller without either Rozier or Ball did reasonably well. He scored 22.2 points per 75 possessions on 53% eFG and 56% TS with 26% usage. That’s pretty good considering there wasn’t any other above-average ball handler next to him. He shot 51% from 2pt with only 45% being assisted.
One thing we should look for when it comes to improvement is the rim finishing, foul drawing, and passing. He had only an 11% assist to go along with his 10% turnover.
Now, the question will be how will that duo look together. Miller with potential improvements and a fully healthy Ball. It does look like they will be complementing one another and this should be fun offensively.
When it comes to the team, can they be better defensively? Outside of this season, they ranked 20th in three straight seasons. That dropped to 28th this year. A big part of that has been a significant drop off in their opponent turnover — they ranked 5th and 6th in 2021 and 2022, but that dropped to 13th and 15th now.
There’s also the addition of Josh Green! In the last two seasons with the Mavericks, he’s been a decent wing for them, giving some improved shooting and efficient finishing. There was a dip this year with the efficiency, though — 64% in 2023 and 59% in 2024. But he’s one of those players that shouldn’t have trouble fitting in anywhere. I liked Green whenever I watched the Mavericks.
Finally, there’s Salaun, who’s another 6ft 9 wing but at the moment looks to be a project. There’s a lot of “potential” talk rather than what he can provide right now. Whether it’s all fun and a bunch of goods or it’s a bumpy road in his development, that’s another major part of the season.
The Hornets’ season right now is continuing to take swings at high-potential players that could have high upside and hope they hit on someone. It’s trying to develop a core that can win some games. They already have Ball locked into that. It’s now Miller looking to prove that he is. And looking for other young players that can round that out.
Predictions
32-37 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): Missing the play-in but close
Ceiling(best case scenario): Comfortably in the play-in for the entire season
Despite Ball’s comeback and the potential improvements from Miller, I don’t know how high I can be on them. There’s just a lot of work needed for them to take any kind of jump forward.
This will be Ball’s first season with another ball handler alongside him. Whatever Rozier was, that’s another shot-creator who can handle the ball and be effective without him.
In their four seasons together, the Hornets with Ball, but no Rozier were -2.2 with a 112.5 ORTG. Ball in those minutes averaged 23 points on 49% eFG and 53% TS. Add Rozier, they are worse with -3.1 but with a 115.5 ORTG. Ball also scores 21 points on 53% eFG and 56% TS. Having Rozier did make his life easier.
I think we can also already pencil in Miller’s improvement. It’s more likely that there is a jump from a high pick in his second year than not, especially when the context is going to be better.
Overall, I don’t expect much change for the Hornets. They will improve in their win total, by simply having Ball back. That’s going to be a significant improvement. But in terms of making the playoffs or having a significant change in the direction of team, I don’t see it happening.
To even make the play-in, they have to be better than any of the Hawks, Bulls, and Heat. I don’t see that happening.
This is going to be another losing season focusing on Ball’s potential leaps, Miller’s improvements, and continuing to look to get assets to have a core.