Dallas Mavericks 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
I’m not sure if many expected this kind of season from the Dallas Mavericks. They not only missed the playoffs last year, they missed the play-in! Yes, last year, they did deal with all of the trades that were happening and that mattered.
But they still had a top 7 player in Luka Doncic playing 66 games and they missed the playoffs. It was a reasonably good team to at least make the play-in.
Well, this year, they not only won 50 games, they made the finals. They beat two very good teams and did so well. The finals were a different story, though. How much you want to put it on Doncic playing through injuries and not being 100% still doesn’t take much away from them being outmatched and outclassed. The Celtics took care of business.
This was still a successful season for the Mavericks. This is the second time they made a deep run with Doncic. That’s progress, though there’s still a lot of work to get over the hump.
They already looked to work on that and that was one of the reasons why they got to the finals in the first place. Moves like getting PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford played a huge part in their finals run.
Since acquiring both Washington and Gafford, they were 6th in net rating with +5.8 and were a sixth-best offense and seventh-best defense. With both on, they were +7.9 with a 119.2 offense in 483 minutes. They found something with those two.
Their off-season was a success too. They addressed some of their holes. They added Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Quentin Grimes, alongside some rookies and 2-ways. These three players should be enough for an improvement heading into the season.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Mavericks:
Doncic continuing his level of play and getting better
Should he adjust his game more?
Another year of Irving-Doncic duo
What are all of the additions going to look like?
Can they continue being a balanced team? Are their role players good enough for that?
Lively’s improvement
Do they have a legitimate chance at a title?
Or are they still a piece or two away?
Not necessarily a big question mark but still something that I’m really looking forward to seeing is what can we expect from Luka Doncic.
He’s only 25 years old and he’s already been on All-NBA first team five times. His entire 20s have been regarded as the top two at his position. His playoff resume is just as impressive. The first two series ended in losses but he was completely balling out. And two series that he led to go on a deep run— neither run was perfect, obviously.
So, with players like these, what is there to even talk about? It’s easy to bet your money right now that he’s making the first team again. It’s probably another easy bet that he’s going to show out in the playoffs.
Even if he adds nothing to his game or changes how he approaches it, you know you’re getting a player that is in the 0.1% of the 0.1%. But also, the beauty of those players is that they’re likely never going to stop tweaking their game or getting better.
Also, there’s the big, oh, HE’S 25 YEARS OLD!
The stats may be the same, but he may look entirely different. There could be an adjustment in something. And that’s what I’m looking forward to.
In one of the seasons, it was going to work in the post more. They also were playing faster with him. This year, it might be on the defensive end or embracing a different kind of off-ball role. Who knows, but that’s exciting with these players — how will those greats impress, surprise, or have us in disbelief this time? The guy already showed us he can casually drop 73 points like he’s in an open gym.
One of the main things this year was his 3-point shooting jumping to 38 on over 13 3s per 100 — career high % and volume. Although his off-the-catch frequency is still low and it’s not even his career high, he did take 8.3% of his shots there and made 37.8% of them. That’s up from 4.9% frequency and 35.2%.
His spot-up efficiency and volume were also up! He scored 1.15 points on 2.5 spot-ups with a 57.8% eFG. That’s one potential area that can improve.
Related to that, it’s all about him not being so ball-dominant. There are ways to not have to create for yourself off dribble the majority of the time and still have a similar level of impact(Steph says hi!). That again has been shown this year.
Here are his tracking stats over the last three seasons (starting this year)
Time of poss: 8.3 → 9.1 → 9.3
Average sec: 5.46 → 6.12 → 6.19
Average dribble: 4.81 → 5.30 → 5.37
That’s again progress! Those are the ways that I’m looking for Doncic to be used differently this year. This is what could raise their ceiling offensively. We already know that an offense led by Doncic orchestrating everything with the ball is pretty damn good. But now you combine that with at least a fifth of his offense off the ball, curling around screens, getting used in the post as a hub, spotting up, as a screener(?), then that versatility will make them better. He’s shown a willingness to adapt.
This will also matter a lot with Irving looking to have his kind of season again.
I’m not sure how to feel about Irving anymore. He’s just there for me. I have no idea where to rank or if I should expect anything different from him.
Outside of his off-court situation and health in the last few seasons, when it comes to basketball, you know what you’re getting. He’s an efficient scorer both on and off the ball as a 3-point shooter, inside the arc, including at the rim. He can just easily break down defenses to create for himself. But he doesn’t do many of those at an elite enough level or volume to put him in that upper-tier conversation. This goes for his playmaking too.
So, the question is, should we expect anything different?
He’s still highly impactful in any kind of role that he’s placed in. Look at that consistency at the top every year since 2017. That’s what you get from him.
There is one thing I’m hoping to see and that’s please change the shot diet. He has a career 3pt rate of 33%. A guy that almost shoots 40% on almost 9 3s per 100 shouldn’t be that low. He has eight seasons shooting 40% or better. There shouldn’t be a world where he also has one season having a 40% 3PT rate or higher.
What if this is the year?
There are still ways for him to be even better and I think that’s scary and exciting. With potential changes in Doncic’s game and adjustment from Irving, they have yet to reach any kind of ceiling together. There are still things left to be maximized. That alone should be so encouraging when discussing the Mavericks’ chances at a title.
This year, with both on, the Mavericks were +9.4 with a 122.7 offense in 1297 minutes — that jumped to +12.7 with 122.4 since the Washington and Gafford trade.
For the season, in those minutes, Doncic is averaging just under 31 points per 75 on 58% eFG and 62% TS with 34% usage. Irving is adding 24 points on 56% eFG and 59% TS with 26% usage. But again, there are ways to make that better.
But what made the run possible was everyone else. It’s the fact that they were a balanced team on both ends. In 2022 when they made a conference finals run, they were eighth on defense. Last year they dropped to 23rd. This year, they were 17th for the year but were seventh post-trades.
Can they remain a top-10 defense? That’s the biggest question. We know what their offense is going to be. The whole Irving-Doncic duo offensively and how they can adapt their games to make it better is the cherry on top. Their chances for anything rests on their defense, which depends a lot on their role players.
They have a lot more size with Gafford, Washington, Lively, Marshall, Thompson, Dinwiddie, Kleber, Propser, Powell. All of those guys are either big or are big relative to their position or role. That’s a lot of guys that you can surround Doncic with. Everyone is also good at something else.
One of their main ways of having that elite offense was through their rim protection. That was shown a lot more in the playoffs vs certain matchups. That’s where having both Lively and Gafford helped tremendously.
Since the trades, they were sixth in opponent frequency at the rim and third in opponent FG% at the rim. That’s elite defense — they also did a good job not allowing the most corner 3s either. When you protect the rim like that, you typically give up something, but they were 10th in the highest frequency from corners.
I don’t think that was a fluke. They have solid defenders with a size that can continue to do that job. But that is right now the biggest question because of how elite they were. I do want to see a bigger sample of it and how that can work with the offense.
Some more stats for that. With Gafford on, they had a 111.3 defense. The opponent shot 49.9% from 2pt! They also shot 61.6% at the rim with only 24.5% frequency and they also only shot 41.8% within 4-14ft. Gafford was doing his job.
A big part of that was Lively. He’s my X-factor for their season. In the playoffs, in 462 minutes with Lively on, the Mavericks were +10.4 with a 107.9 defense! Without him, that was -2.2 and a 114.5 defense. That’s a wild swing.
He’s only 20 years old and was already impacting the game so well. He finished easy shots. Yes, a lot of it is dumpoffs and lobs but that’s still a job in itself. He still shot over 75% from 2pt. That’s not that easy to do consistently, even if you’re spoon-fed.
Here are some fun stats. He defended over 6 shots within 6ft and the opponent shot 58.7%. That’s 5.2% worse than expected. That’s decent. Nothing amazing. In the playoffs, he only defended 4 shots but opponents only shot 42.9%. That was 20.7% worse than expected.
If he can turn himself into a consistent elite rim protector like that, it can things — he also showed some ability to defend in space in the finals. That’s because of what he was already showing offensively. There’s also a reason why they were such a positive with him and that’s because he gives them that short roll option on offense(something Gafford didn’t).
He could be a swing player for them.
But what about all of the additions? They did add plenty of players. That’s another exciting thing to watch out for. I think all of the players give something positive.
Possibly the main addition is Thompson. They replaced Tim Hardaway Jr with arguably the second-best 3-point shooter ever. That’s a significant upgrade. I don’t even think there’s any change in the defense either. But what there is a change of is Thompson’s IQ, his experience, and all of the intangible that he brings.
This is going to be a completely different system that Thompson will have played in and I wonder how much that could change his game. Or if they go the other way and incorporate things that make Thompson Thompson.
The stat that pops out is his frequency off-screen over the years:
33.1% → 29.1% → 28.2% → 34.2% → 33.4% → 32.4%
He has led the league in frequency every year he was healthy, and by a good margin too. On the other hand, his spot-ups:
17.6% → 17.7% → 20.2% → 13.4% → 11.% → 17.5%
He has been used a bit more as a spot-up guy since coming back from injury, but that hasn’t been his thing. That’s going to change. When you look at Hardaway Jr, it’s the opposite. He was used almost at the same rate and much higher as a spot-up as was Thompson off-screen.
Here are some 3-point stats, per BBall-Index. It looks at their value above average where 100 is average:
But Thompson is an elite shooter in any way he does it. That versatility is going to matter. The Mavericks needed that kind of shooting in the playoffs, especially in the finals.
There’s also Marshall, who has been a solid wing for the Pelicans. He’s another guy that has the size and can do a bunch of things. That’s the Derrick Jones Jr replacement but better offensively. A lot of that will depend on how much of his 3pt shooting was real. In the first three seasons, he shot 28.6% from 3pt, but that jumped to 38.7% this year. He’s not a volume guy either.
But they can make that up with another wing that does put up a lot more 3s! Grimes is a career 37% shooter on over 10 3s per 100. I can also see him being the actual Hardaway Jr replacement.
And there’s Dinwiddie. He’s had a rough couple of seasons, but he also had his best years with the Mavericks. He did a pretty good job shooting the ball, being efficient, and getting to the line and was better in the playoffs.
They now have three reliable ball handlers and two of them can be on the court at the same time. That’s a bonus. In those two years, Dinwiddie had a significant jump across the board when he shared the court with Doncic — 16 points per 75 on 59% eFG and 62% TS with 56% from 2pt and 41% from 3pt.
All of these players have size or length. They did a good job at rounding out the team on either end of the floor.
So, the final question is, is this the best team in the Doncic era and can this be a legit contender?
I think both answers are easy yes. I’m convinced that they could’ve won the title against any non-Celtics opponent. Whether it was a healthy 76ers, Bucks, or Knicks, they would’ve had a legitimate chance against anyone.
They found something with Gafford, Washington, and Lively as their frontcourt rotation where they can be elite defensively. They added more pieces to surround the stars with more size that can do more things offensively as role players.
I do wonder about their point-of-attack defense. Who’s taking that job?
Their offense has been better with their two stars and they still haven’t reached anywhere close to what this could be fully maximised. There’s a lot about this team that can still hit another gear.
Predictions
50-58 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 4th seed but comfortably
Ceiling(best case scenario): Best in the league
I think I genuinely believe that. This can be the year where they have a legit chance to be the best team in the league. With the additions, their already good defense, Lively making improvements, getting more time to come up with all the game plans, and simply having Doncic, there are so many arguments for it.
I would be a bit cautious about their defense being at the same level, but only slightly. The pieces are there. They have shown it in the playoffs. I just want to see a bigger sample to say they’re going to be elite — they definitely improved period, though.
This might also be the most likely year for Doncic to win MVP. He was already having a case this year and this year can be the one that he goes over the hump. As always, he should be right at the top of the list.
Having looked at the seasons that Irving had, I’m most looking forward to his season. What stops him from having a career year?
The Mavericks have a chance to be the best team in the Doncic era and give him the best possible chance to compete for a title.