Denver Nuggets 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
After the way they won in 2023, I honestly thought this was going to be the first time we’ve seen a champion repeat since the Golden State Warriors in 2018 — they couldn’t even reach the conference finals.
Life does come at you fast in the NBA. You can have the best player in the world, be coming off a championship, have one of the most dominant starting fives, and that can still not be enough to get out of the second round.
They still had a great season. They won 57 games, but they also played around and lost out on the top seed in the West. We’ll never know but that alone could’ve changed their playoff chances with different matchups.
Everything else throughout the season was almost just as good. Nikola Jokic won his third MVP. They were still as dominant as ever with him. They were relatively healthy across the board… except for Jamal Murray. And that was a huge reason why they couldn’t go far in the playoffs.
With all that said, though, this was a failure of a season considering everything. Even with Murray missing time and being limited in the playoffs, they still had everything to make the conference finals at least. If a team is a legit contender with the best player in the world and they don’t make it out of the second round, that is a failure.
Their off-season was somehow a bigger failure. They got worse. They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was a key player for them on both ends of the floor. This is another off-season in which they lose a key player. I’m not overreacting to the loss itself, but there is an issue of not being able to fully replace him — not that Pope himself is irreplaceable.
Their off-season included getting Dario Saric, and Russell Westbrook, and drafting DaRon Holmes(who won’t be playing this year). That’s not a great off-season. You lost a key player and now you’re banking a lot on the young players.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Nuggets:
Another season of greatness from Jokic
Who and how will they look to replace Pope? Who’s taking his starting spot?
Can we see a different Porter Jr offensively? Can he add something new?
How legit is their defense? Will Pope leaving make a big difference?
The 3pt issue. How will they address the math game?
Can Murray bounce back and what are the expectations with the extension?
Russell Westbrook.
What do they have with the young guys?
Jokic has reached the status of I’m expecting greatness and anything less will cause me to raise an eye.
What Jokic has done in each of the last four seasons is historic. It’s generational. It’s something that we’ve never seen in basketball. I wonder how many athletes had a similar run across any sport.
Whether it’s fair or not, once you reach all-time level status, those are the expectations. That’s the blessing and a curse of being that good. Because this isn’t the best in the world level good, it’s putting him in conversations as one of the best to ever do it period. That’s the standard now.
That’s why I’m also not worried or concerned about Jokic a single bit. Their ceiling or any concerns they may have doesn’t depend on Jokic needing to add or change something. It can definitely help and this doesn’t mean that he shouldn’t look to improve or adapt, but their success isn’t dependent on that. He can stay as he is and they will have a legit chance because of it.
Having said that, is he going to bounce back as a 3pt shooter? That is the ultimate cheat code. That is what hurt them in the playoffs and what hurt Serbia in the Olympics. Again, he doesn’t have to be a 38% shooter but if he is, that makes any conversation regarding him or the Nuggets just less of a conversation.
It’s essentially making the best offensive player in the NBA more 2k like that will make everything unfair — it’s also already unfair, though.
I still wonder if there even is something new to his game. He’s already the best offensive player in the world, what could he possibly even add? What could he do this year that would put him even more ahead as the best offensive player? It’s tough to do that with Jokic because outside of the already mentioned 3-point shooting, there are no other weaknesses.
Related to Jokic and offense, can the team actually be better on offense? Now, the Nuggets still have a 124.0 offensive rating with Jokic on, but that also dropped to 114.3 in the playoffs.
This has been a conversation already when it comes to their offense. They have a math problem. They don’t put up a lot of 3s, nor get to the line.
I went through some of those issues earlier in the off-season here:
A lot of it has to do with their 3-point rate. It was 11% below league average, per Cleaning the Glass. AND their free throw rate. They’re ranked near the bottom in both categories. There’s a limit to how much you can be behind the math game before you actually can’t outscore your opponent, even if you’re elite at everything else.
It’s actually impressive that they still won the way they have despite many series where the opponent put up a lot more 3s and got to the line more. They out mathed math successfully.
This is the shot profile for the Nuggets over the last five years. That free throw rate is also as worrying because this is something that they had in previous seasons.
Their drop-in free throws come down to both Jokic(went from 0.336 to 0.291) and Murray(went from 0.198 to 0.104). That starts with your best players.
I’m more curious to see how they can adapt to increase their 3pt volume. But this is a good issue to have. Their offense isn’t dependent on anything that’s highly volatile. It’s not dependent on a high volume of 3s. They did all of that and still had one of the most deadly offenses. They never had math on their side and somehow it didn’t matter. That’s a good offense to me.
But there is a change needed in their approach and how they go about creating their points. They need to adapt.
There are many ways to go about this, though.
It starts with their second-best player, one that also received an extension. How much better can Murray be? I do think a bit is overrating here because of the run he had last year. Yes, he did a good job alongside Jokic and that is highly important but doing that isn’t enough to place him in the upper tier of stars.
So, can he reach that?
There are routes. He can improve as a passer because that to me is still one of his weaknesses. I’m not sure if he can suddenly become a much better foul drawer or score better at the rim.
But the easiest way to be more effective across the board is by adjusting that shot diet. For most of the star guards that aren’t uber-athletic, downhill threats with foul-baiting skill, if they’re a decent shooter, the best way is to be more of a 3-point threat.
Murray takes over 17.2 2s per 100. He only takes 9.1 3s per 100. That’s a 34.6% 3-point rate(to go along with his .187 free throw rate). I need that to be 50%. That alone can change so much for him(and for the team).
52.1% of Murray’s shots are pull-ups. 32.6 of those pull-ups are 2s. He’s also shooting 42.4% on pull-up 3s compared to 46.4% on 2s. In his last three seasons, he’s shooting 43% on 5 pull-up 2s, but he’s also shooting 40% on over 3 3s. At that point, they’re shooting themselves in the foot when it comes to their 3-point volume.
That in turn could also open things up for him to drive more and draw more fouls. It’s a win-win.
Overall, with his game, there isn’t a need for him to be in that upper tier of stars. They have clearly proved that what he does is already good enough alongside Jokic. But if he does, that can be a huge ceiling-raiser for them and make their offense even more of a cheat code.
There’s also Porter Jr. He’s another similar player where I don’t get the reasoning for his shot diet. Adjusting your shots to be more 3s isn’t making yourself to be a robot. Going with the evolution of what we know is what should happen. Those players will also still have the skillset and ability to do something else.
Porter Jr is only averaging 10.7 3s per 100 but is shooting 40%. He’s also taking 10.1 2s at 57%. But at the same time, his third most used place on the court is shooting beyond 14ft inside the arc. Why? He has improved that to over 51%, but just take those contested 3s.
Continuing on his offense, can we actually see something new in his game? We know he’s a highly efficient player off the ball who can score from anywhere on the court well. But what about some of his own self-creation game or his passing? Can he at least average 3 potential assists? Let’s start there.
Because I don’t know what there is to Porter Jr. Is he just an off-ball scorer? Does he even have the tools to be something more? Is it his mindset, his approach? What even is realistic for him considering the hype he had before the NBA?
And there’s Westbrook. Is this going to be that meme where people fool themselves that it hasn’t worked for any other team but it’s this team that it will finally work? Is it just that they have Jokic and he can make it work with everyone?
I don’t know how this is going to work out. I’m all for Westbrook getting a run with the bench for 10-15 minutes in the regular season. I think there is value in having that sparkplug who can still beat guys off the dribble, run the break, and make sure to feed everyone. Anything beyond that, I’m out already.
There’s going to be a stretch where he looks good and it’s going to look like he finally found a place to be himself and help a team win. But then there’s going to be a bunch of bigger stretches where all of the flaws and limitations make it impossible to play him significant minutes in games that matter. They will be too much to overcome.
One of the biggest questions for the Nuggets, considering the apron situation, is who can contribute for them from the young players. They will need someone to do it — someone has to replace Pope in the starting five, that’s another question. Though, I do think the offensive side is a bit overexaggerated with his impact. This loss shouldn’t be that big of a deal to me.
They have Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, and Christian Braun as the top candidates. One of them will have to step up in the bigger role.
Right now, Braun has been the guy. He’s already been the player getting the most minutes and he saw the most run in the playoffs too. But can he develop that jump shot? A lot of it will hinge on that. Can he be an average shooter at least? I like everything else from him. He feels like such an energetic guy. He’s my candidate to start.
But then there’s Watson who I think has more questions than answers. Similar to Watson, a lot hinges on the shot. Against the Wolves, there were possessions with Gobert on him and he just sat in the paint. Can he be useful without the 3-point shot? Can he be setting screens, cutting, and finding ways to be someone like Gordon?
Oh, on that note, Gordon. Almost a perfect role player, but he does so many things well on both ends of the floor in very different roles that everything else is a cherry on top.
Finally, there’s Strawther. At this point, it’s figuring out what he even is at this point. In his rookie season, no stat jumps out and it shouldn’t. That’s also not a case for or against him. But it does make things a bit difficult to project because it’s really projecting.
The last point with their season is their defense. That has been trending upward for them. Here are their ranks in these last five years: 9th, 17th, 15th, 11th, 16th.
In each year, they were outside of the top 10 and were either average or below average. This year they jumped to 9th. That’s something. That’s new and it can make a big difference. But looking at some of their defensive four factors, it’s a curious case. They are 2nd in opponent eFG% but are 26th in TOV%, 13th in ORB%, and 18th in free throw rate.
How are they doing this? Is it the shot profile? They are 22nd in opponent rim frequency but 6th in FG%. They allow 10th highest in the short mid and are 7th in FG%. They also allow the 11th highest in the long mid-range. Another stat is they allow the 2nd fewest 3pt rate. Now it makes a bit more sense with how they do it.
Is that sustainable? Can they remain that elite defensively? If they can have Braun and Watson be real contributors, there is a world that gets better. But also, how much of the loss of Pope will matter here?
This year, without Pope, still had a 114.8 defensive rating. It was 112.6 with him. Although it’s a smaller sample and more factors that skew things, it was entirely different in the playoffs. They had a 104.7 defense without him and 115.2 with him.
Still, he did provide a body that can defend at the point of attack and chase guys around the screen. That loss will hurt… but not to the extent I’ve been seeing. He’s not at the Alex Caruso guard level impact — that is a difference-maker defensively as a guard.
Predictions
50-58 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 4th seed
Ceiling(best case scenario): 1st seed with an offense that takes 3s!
I’m still a big believer in the Nuggets. Whenever you have the best player in the world with a reasonable team around him, you will have as good of a chance as everyone else. It’s that simple. Top-end talent like that can carry you so far.
But I’m very curious how they do approach this season given how this one ended. To lose at home… in a game 7… one that you had a double-digit lead in? That stings. That’s a kind of loss that can spark a fire in everyone to prove everyone wrong.
For all of the talks that Jokic doesn’t care about basketball, there’s no doubt that all of this hurt. They are professional athletes at the top of the world. A loss like this will matter to everyone, even if they already won or may not show they fully care.
I’m excited to watch that potential version of Jokic. I have a feeling that it could be his best season yet one way or the other.
It’s also how the team will approach this. They clearly have issues to figure out and questions to answer. Can they tweak their offense? Can they put up more 3s? Can their defense still be as elite? Can the young players step up?
There’s a lot more work to be done. Last year, it felt like it was a given like it was expected of them to make the finals, and that’s not the case. I wouldn’t underestimate a team like that heading into a new season feeling motivated.
That goes to someone like Murray, who also ended the season on a bad note with the playoffs that he had. He also got his money. Is he going to have a career year? What would that even look like?
And there’s the one fun question about Westbrook. I’m not sure what to expect from him. I don’t buy into the fact that he’s toxic or a locker-room cancer. But basketball-wise, at this point, I just don’t see it.
Overall, they’re still a great team. They will win a lot of games — they won almost 50 for god’s sake with Will Barton and Monte Morris. Their playoff ceiling is still a ring and anything short of a conference finals is going to be a disappointment again.