Has Tyler Herro played like an All-Star this year?
A case for Tyler Herro to make the All-Star game
Who would’ve thought that we’d be doing an All-Star case for Tyler Herro? But that’s where we’re at with Herro this season.
Whether or not he makes it, this year, there’s a legitimate argument that he deserves to be an All-Star. Because of how some players are voted in or underrated/overrated, my view on players is that even if they may technically not get into the game, they can easily 100% be All-Star level players for that season.
A good example is Butler making the All-Star game only twice in the six seasons with the Heat, but everyone knows he’s been an All-Star level player every single year — just a side note but the year he was top 10 in MVP, second in clutch player, made All-NBA second, and had the playoff run that he did, he wasn’t an All-Star
That’s why whether Herro is selected or not, it doesn’t change anything about the season that he’s having.
So, has Herro been an All-Star level player this year? Let’s go through his case for the All-Star game.
Starting off with the basics. He’s averaging 25.3 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per 75 possessions on 58.4% eFG and 62.5% TS. Those numbers alone already show the kind of players you’d see in an All-Star game.
With at least 500 minutes, there are 27 players to average at least 25 points per 75. There are 19 players to average that and 5 assists. Add 5 rebounds, and there are only 14 players. If you add that they’re also doing it on at least 60% TS, that list drops to five — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, and Herro.
That is one elite company. Box-score stats don’t tell the whole story of how points and efficiency are generated, but to be in that company in itself is a clear sign of doing something right.
Going beyond simple box-score stats, advanced metrics also love him, especially on the offensive end — EPM(Dunks and threes), LEBRON(BBall-Index), DPM(DARKO), eRAPTOR(Neil Paine Substack)
18th in expected O-EPM with +3.5
9th in actual O-EPM with +4.2
17th in O-LEBRON with +2.5
35th in O-DPM with +2.0
18th in eRAPTOR with +3.5
By all respectable metrics(with the exception of DPM), he’s been at least a top 20 impactful offensive player. Note, that I am focusing on the offensive side. The defensive metrics haven’t liked him at all this year, where for some it’s one of the worst in his career. That also does check out with some of the eye tests and other individual data.
But that also matters less for things like the All-Star game for me. This isn’t who’s a better player or who would you rather have on a championship team, where both sides are considered and weighed differently.
What simply matters more to me is what is the job/role of said player and how well they’re doing it. For lead guards, it’s mostly on the offensive end. The weighting of the defense/offense matters a lot more in different roles, situations, and positions.
And Herro has been doing that. He’s done his job for what the Heat needed him to do. They tweaked the offense for more movements and a lot of handoffs. He fits right into that. They put him in a position where he’s leading the team in on-ball usage, and he took that responsibility and made it work.
The Heat’s offensive rating with him on is 115.5. Take him off, and that drops to 107.8. that is the difference between 10th(ahead of teams like the Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, and Minnesota Timberwolves) and 29th(only ahead of the Washington Wizards). Even in the recent stretch, where the Heat’s offense in general has declined, they are pushed up by Herro. Since the beginning of the Calendar year, the Heat have had 114.1 ORTG with him on and 106.8 without him.
When you also look at the touches and how much he’s involved compared to everyone else on the team, it’s clear that the offense has been running a lot through him, particularly on-ball. He leads the team with 7.1 possessions as the PNR ball handler, with Terry Rozier second at 3.4.
Just to see also how it compares with others, here are the players’ possessions in PNR/ISO/Post/Handoff:
Herro: 10.4
Butler: 6.2
Rozier: 5.1
Bam: 4.9
With how much time Butler has missed, Herro has been the steady hand that kept the offense somewhat afloat. It hasn’t been pretty without Butler period, even with Herro on, but that slight floor-raising ability has been the difference between a win or loss.
In those 19 games without Butler, Herro has been doing his thing. He still averages 25.5 points per 75 possessions on 57.3% eFG and 62.1% TS with 27.8% USG.
Even when the Heat have been without their best overall player, Herro’s stats and efficiency didn’t differ. If you’re wondering why the Heat are in this position, a lot of it comes down to him. When the offense in general has declined and been in the mud, having those 25 points on good efficiency has regularly been enough to make games winnable. That’s where you’d see Couper Moorhead tweet something like this, where it’s the Heat’s ORTG with Herro on in a single game — the tweet showed the Nuggets game that had 117.1 with him in 34 minutes and 91.2 in 14 minutes without him.
This is where his high-scoring performances help. He already has nine games with 30 or more points, but also check out the efficiency:
Vs Pistons: 40 points on 71.7% TS
Vs Lakers: 31 points on 79.7%
Vs Raptors: 31 on 81.2%
Vs Clippers: 32 on 63.3%
Vs Blazers: 32 on 67.3%
Vs Pelicans: 32 on 66.1%
Vs Lakers: 34 on 88.0%
Vs Cavaliers: 34 on 74.0%
Vs Knicks: 34 on 81.4%
That’s actually insane. six out of the nine games have a TS% higher than 70 and basically four of them being 80% is hilarious. His high-scoring games are putting up Curry-level efficiency.
There have been 90 instances of a player scoring at least 30 points and having a TS% of 80%(rounded up). The only player with more games than Herro(four) is Shai. That’s it. Karl Anthony Towns, and Nikola Jokic both have four. Again, it’s insane to put it in context with what everyone has been doing.
So far, every stat and metric show All-Star level impact, especially when you consider the situation and what his role on the team is.
Let’s move on to see how he’s been doing it.
This has probably been talked about a lot already about Herro considering his jump this season, but a lot of it has to do with his shot diet. That’s the biggest change for him this year.
That’s a big reason why he jumped from 55.8% TS to 62.5%. On that note, amongst starting-level on-ball guards since 2014, this has been the 10th-highest jump in TS%. If we look at just from last year to this year, only Darius Garland had made a bigger jump at 7.5%.
That comes from the 3-point shooting. He’s an elite shooter. He’s 12th in 3pt attempts per 100 at 13.5 and is shooting 40.5%. Out of 59 qualifying players with at least 10 3s per 100, he is 13th in %. If we do out of 18 players that match his volume at 13, he’s basically tied second with Payton Pritchard.
Here are his ranks in BBall-Index’s 3pt shooting talent:
3pt shooting talent: 4th
3pt pull-up talent: 7th
C&S 3pt talent: 9th
Deep 3pt talent: 1st
He’s the only player to rank in the top 10 in both pull-up and C&S talent. Let’s dig further into those metrics, looking at both the creation and shot-making:
3pt shot creation: 34th
3pt pull-up shot creation: 34th
Deep 3pt shot creation: 19th
3pt shot-making: 2nd
3pt pull-up shot-making: 6th
C&S 3pt shot-making: 5th
Deep 3pt shot-making: 1st
The creation isn’t at the highest level but when looking at his 3-point shot-making, that’s where he stands out. There are only 8 players to be at least in the top 25 in 3-point shot-making, 3-point pull-up, and C&S 3-point. If we narrow it to 15, it’s just him, Curry, Garland, and Norman Powell. If we narrow it to 10, it’s just him.
That made me curious to see how that would rank since 2014. There have been only 21 seasons where a player is top five in three of those categories — Buddy Hield, Carmelo Anthony, JJ Redick(3x), Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson(2x), Curry(10x lol insane), Herro, and LaVine.
It’s that ability to do so off the catch, where it becomes a valuable weapon as a play finisher. He’s shooting 48% on wide-open 3s. On top of that, he’s also shooting 44.2% from the corners. You just can’t leave him open. Any time he’s spaced out(even way further than five feet out), all it takes is a quick kick or swing and it’s up in the air and likely going in:
Making himself a dangerous off-ball weapon and one of the best at helping others by simply drawing attention.
The handoff and off the dribble are where the scoring has been as good as it’s been. He’s involved in almost 10 PNRs or handoffs a game. This has been such a weapon for him.
Being able to combine starting with or without the ball, even if it ends in the same, it adds more variety and unpredictability. If he can’t get into a shot with his dribble off a pick, it’s all good, just pass out and then get free without the ball. This has meant if the defense over plays or pressures him, he’s able to still generate enough space to get shots off.
What he’s doing as a shooter is not only impressive just for this season, but compared to everyone else since 2014.
All of that shooting has translated to top-of-the-league efficiency across different play types, per BBall-Index stable points per possession(may differ from NBA dot com):
1.12 points per possession in handoffs
1.18 in spot-ups
1.24 in transition
1.10 in off-ball screen
0.94 in PNR
There are only six other players with at least 1.0 points in four of those play types and 0.9 in the PNR — Damian Lillard, Shai, Tyrese Haliburton, Powell, Pritchard, and Anthony Edwards.
One of the most versatile shooters in the league. Period.
What this has also helped is the inside scoring. He took away the inefficient mid-ranges. That just left rim shots and paint shots. Both areas that he improved in.
He’s shooting 63.3% at the rim and 54.1% in the short mid-range. Even beyond the 3-point shooting, he has hands down been one of the best overall shooters and scorers. That’s why he’s shooting 56.4% from 2pt. Out of 64 players with at least 20 shots per 100, he’s 13th in 2pt% and 14th in 3pt%. He has worked on a lot of his weaknesses and turned them into strengths. Plus he made his strengths even better.
There’s been a drastic difference in how he looks when he’s attacking. He’s been more aggressive. He’s embraced to go through contact more. There have been counters to rejecting the screen to avoid the pressure and he looks to attack after that.
Combined with his effectiveness(he’s shooting 58% within 14ft), this is a reliable counter to the 3-point shooting. If he gets run off the line, there’s less settling on the long jumpers where he was shooting 41% for his career. But instead, it’s taking those paint pull-ups where he’s shooting around 54%.
There’s a more willingness to attack the rim. His rim rate is at 17.5%(second highest in his career). It’s still not that high and still taking more shots around the paint, but it’s a significant improvement from the last two years at 11.1% and 13.2%.
Here are some other shooting stats to show how hilarious some of those stats are:
42.1% on 5.0 C&S 3pt
39.1% on 4.6 PU 3pt
54.0% on 2.3 PU 2pt
48.6% on 3.2 wide open 3pt
54.7% on 6.6 off dribble 2s(2+ dribbles)
66% on 1.1 2s off 1 or less dribble
Putting some of that into context.
Out of 16 players with at least 5 C&S 3pt, he’s third in %. Out of 22 players with at least 4 PU 3pt, he’s fifth in %. Out of 75 players with at least 2 PU 2pt, he’s third in %(only behind Durant and Khris Middleton).
The more you dig in, the more you can just laugh at it.
That has been his weapon and it’s been a damn good weapon. This alone already puts him near the top of having an All-Star-level impact. That kind of 3-point shooting is extremely valuable. And when it’s also combined with a better ability to attack and finish, that’s even more impactful. These are all growths you want to see as a scorer, who leads the team in usage and is the lead guard.
What’s also been better this year is the passing and playmaking. That has taken a step forward from last year and is more in the range of clear All-Star level guards, even amongst starting level on-ball players.
Here are some of his passing stats per BBall-Index amongst 93 on-ball players:
Playmaking talent: 23rd
Passing efficiency: 31st
Passing versatility: 57th
Passing creation volume: 38th
Passing creation quality: 24th
Potential assists per 100 passes: 39th
Box-creation: 21st
High value assists per 75 poss: 36th
P&R creation rate: 16th
Outside of the passing versatility, there are only 10 other players to rank in the top 50 in every other stat — LeBron James, Jalen Brunson, LaMelo Ball, Haliburton, Franz Wagner, Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, Shai, and Jaylen Brown.
There is a clear volume and responsibility that he has as both the scorer and playmaker. And he’s done as good of a job as any other guard. This is still a big area of improvement, but it’s been better at balancing between scoring and assisting. He’s had 14 games already with at least 30% AST. He’s also had 19 games with a higher AST% than usage.
Here are some other stats, too. Some arbitrary benchmarks, but just wanted to see roughly who looks to score and pass at a high enough rate.
He has taken that responsibility as a scorer and as a passer pretty well. That’s not an easy job to manage — when should I get mine or when should I look to make the pass?
Looking at some of his tracking stats, the growth is evident as the passer. Here are the stats over the last three seasons(2023 → 24 → 25):
Drive assist points per 75: 0.18 → 0.08 → 0.15
Potential assists per 100 pass: 19.3 → 18.9 → 20.5
High value assists per 75: 3.9 → 3.8 → 5.1
Box creation: 6.4 → 7.6 → 9.2
Drive pass-out rate: 38.9 → 42.6 → 46.8
Drive assist rate: 9.6 → 9.8 → 13.6
Lob creation rate: 0.24 → 0.28 → 0.60
Basically every stat is the highest. The drive assist rate particularly stands out. That’s where he’s making these kinds of reads regularly now. That’s improved decision-making to know to make those reads if the defense gives you that. This is what the Celtics did in the playoffs daring him to make those passes and he continues to make defenses pay if they do show strong help. With also being a more willing driver who looks to be more aggressive, these windows open up a lot more.
And of course, there are the lobs(he has already assisted Ware and Adebayo 30 times at the rim)
All of this is plenty to be in the conversation for All-Star-level impact. I don’t think there is a case against that anymore. That standard has been reached. Any other question or concern is a different story or argument.
He has even been going up against defenses that are blitzing him and completely taking him out of the game. I did a whole breakdown on the team getting blitzed here.
But here’s also over six minutes of Herro drawing two, getting blitzed, doubled or just attacking a more aggressive coverage:
That’s the kind of coverage he’s been seeing more regularly. In that nine-game stretch where multiple opponents in a row have been doing that, he still averaged 23.8 points and 5.4 assists per game on 62.0% TS and shooting 41.0% from 3pt.
There has been real growth throughout the season. You can see his impact metrics trending up too.
His EPM:
His DARKO:
By all metrics, he’s been getting better and more impactful. That’s a great sign.
So, that’s what his season has been looking like. With the team essentially leaning on him to be the engine of the offense, he has done as good of a job as you may have wanted him to.
Not only has his job gotten more responsibility with the ball, running more PNRs, and being with less help, but he has also adjusted his game enough to increase his efficiency too. Floor raising and doing so efficiently is an important, valuable, and difficult thing to do. He’s done that job. That’s something I didn’t think he’d be able to do to his extent, and he’s proven that wrong quickly this year.
That to me is an All-Star-level player. With a combination of his on-ball scoring, his gravity as a shooter, improved playmaking, and a big difference in how he looks attacking, I don’t see an argument against that.
How much that can translate to better teams looking to compete is a different story. How that fits with other on-ball players is also a different argument. But there’s nothing that he’s done this year that isn’t in the same conversation as some of the other All-Stars in the past.
To finish off, let’s quickly look at the competition because that matters just as much in terms of actually making it. To me, he has put himself in that tier of players, but then it all comes down to preference and more specific comparison between each other players.
To put it in another way, he hasn’t left anything on the table to not be an All-Star.
We already know that Brunson and Mitchell are starting. That leaves two more guards off the bench and two potential guards for the wild card.
His competition then is:
Cade Cunningham
Damian Lillard
Darius Garland
LaMelo Ball
Trae Young
Tyrese Haliburton
Zach LaVine
It’s that list of seven guards that all have a legitimate case too.
After that, there’s also potential forwards for the wild card that can include:
Franz Wagner
Pascal Siakam
Evan Mobley
Jaylen Brown
Jalen Johnson
Jarrett Allen
Nikola Vucevic
Scottie Barnes
That’s still a lot of competition. Focusing on the guards, here’s what some of the impact metrics show:
Herro ranks: 5th, tied 4th, 6th, tied 4th, tied 6th, 5th, and 5th in those metrics.
It is close to some. Some have a clear case above him like Garland. I think he is as good of a lock as you can be. The engine of the best offense in the league on the best team in the East. That’s a lock to me.
I’d have Hero over Cunningham and LaVine. That leaves Haliburton, Young, Ball, and Lillard. All four have as good of an argument against Herro.
Lillard has bounced back to his usual self in terms of his production and efficiency. He’s been the same Lillard that has an All-NBA level impact on offense. Haliburton and the Pacers have been cruising recently and for a while, Haliburton has been doing what he’s been doing last year. Ball is carrying an offense to solid standards(same as Herro's on-court offensive rating), despite having that kind of team. Young is still one of the best engines and passers in the league.
There’s a lot of argument for all of them that can be gone into more detail for each of them and it wouldn’t be wrong to have them.
For me, personally, he is cut short based on the competition. I’d have Garland and either Lillard/Haliburton over him. But again, that doesn’t change anything about his season, that is just more about preference and what I value more. He has been an All-Star-level player. He is in that same tier and has a legitimate case. A top 5 shooter this season, who has been as efficient as any other elite scorer and is having that kind of responsibility definitely warrants that.
This is the kind of growth and jump you wanted to see and he did it. It’s also been over half the season that saw him adjust and counter different levels of defenses. It’s also been almost a quarter of a season without Butler where he didn’t drop off in any stat.
So, to answer the first question. Yes, Herro has played like an All-Star player this year.