How is Jimmy Butler having the most efficient season of his career
A full breakdown of how Butler is having the most efficient season of his career
Did you know that at age 35, Jimmy Butler is having the most efficient season of his career? By almost any metric, he’s having a highly efficient and highly impactful season:
65.2% TS — 64.7% next highest in 2023
58.1% eFG — 56.0% next highest in 2023
58.7% 2pt — 56.4% next highest in 2023
71.4% rim — 67.7% next highest in 2023
47.1% in the short mid-range third highest
+3.8 Off-EPM third highest
Is Butler having an underrated, underappreciated year? How is it possible that he’s this efficient across the board?
He’s certainly still been important. Here are some on/off numbers:
Butler on: +6.1 net / 120.3 ORTG / 114.2 DRTG
Butler off: +1.1 net / 111.0 / 109.9
Butler, Herro on: +5.1 / 122.1 / 117.0
Herro on, Butler off: -4.2 / 108.9 / 113.1
Butler, Bam on: +7.7 / 121.9 / 114.2
Bam on, Butler off: +2.1 / 112.2 / 110.1
Butler, Herro, Bam on: +5.5 / 121.4 / 115.9
Herro, Bam on, Butler off: -1.2 / 110.0 / 111.2
That’s what we’ll be looking at today. How has he done this and how much does it matter?
The first and most important point is the usage. That is at a career low. Being efficient at 26% is different than being efficient at near 21%.
I have posted this multiple times whenever I’ve done a Butler breakdown, but his usage and involvement has been dropping each year. At this point, he’s more of an off-ball player than an on-ball, especially when sharing the court with better players.
This year, the same trend is occurring. With Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro(and his ascension), Butler has a 19.7% usage — lower than Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Herro, and Adebayo. In those minutes, over 71% of his 2s are assisted, and 90% of his 3s.
So, that’s another factor that helps his efficiency. Over the summer, I looked at how Butler’s play types have changed over the years:
This is his frequency and possessions per game. Let’s compare that to this year:
Transition: 14.0% → 16.0%
Isolation: 15.3% → 13.8%
Post up: 10.7% → 6.3%
PNR Ball handler: 20.7% → 23.8%
PNR roll man: 2.6% → 3.7%
Spot up: 13.4% → 8.6%
Cut: 8.8% → 8.9%
The biggest drop off is in those isolation and post ups. Not only is he taking less shots period, he’s also being used less in self created actions.
That has contributed a lot to the efficiency. It’s tougher to create looks for yourself. They will always be less efficient than in transition or cutting. A lot of the time, it does feel like you’re watching a smart role-player picking the most effective spots.
We’ll dig into each action and right at the end it’s a small discussion on what this means for him and the team going forward.
Transition
Let’s start with his most efficient source of offense, his transition game. That is 16.0% of his total possessions. He has scored 68 points on 43 possessions(1.58pts per poss) and has gone 23/29. That’s almost 1.6 points per shot.
Being that efficient at a decent volume certainly boosts a lot of those numbers. 21% of his points and 21% of his total FGM are from transition. That’s significant. On top of that, he also has a 34.9% free throw frequency here, too. He has found a way to be as effective and efficient as you can get in transition in limited volume.
Regardless of volume, he ranks 10th in points per possession. If we do at least 40 possessions(he has 43), he’d rank third.
This is also where a lot of his highly efficient looks at the rim comes here. Many are the most free kind of points you can get. With the Heat always looking to make those outlet passes(thank you, Kevin Love, Adebayo, and Herro), he gets plenty of fully uncontested, unbothered dunks.
Honestly, there’s not much analysis here apart from the fact that he’s always leaking out to capitalize on the outlets, his pick-6s help a lot, and when he gets his head full of steam, he will bulldoze
From personally tracking it, at least 30% of his shots made at the rim come there. That matters when you are trying to see how a player is that efficient and what conclusions should you draw from it? He is shooting 71% at the rim, but how much does that number speak to actual finishing in the half-court, rather than getting finishing that includes the most wide-open dunk with defenders in the backcourt?
Cutting
Moving onto his second most efficient shot and that’s his cutting. Butler is an elite off-ball player, particularly when it comes to his timing and awareness of when to cut and the way he does it.
That’s 8.9% of his offense where he has scored 37 points on 24 possessions(1.54) and shot 14/18.
This has been one of the more common ways of being used whenever he is on the court with Adebayo or Herro. It can come in a couple of ways — exploiting the overhelp on a PNR elsewhere, set plays with him back-cutting, slipping out of a PNR, or finding other opportunistic cuts wherever they show up.
A cut at the basket is very efficient in general and that’s mainly because you will see all of the bigs cuts from the dunker spot and moving around the paint for those dump-offs. And plenty of the time, that’s exactly how Butler is used. He’s a big.
This is where you will get these cuts:
These include all your slips, dunker spot cuts, next to PNRs, or anything else that shows up. One thing I have liked about Butler is even when he starts with the ball and does his thing if that doesn’t work out and the ball moves, he will find a better spot and somehow end up with a better shot.
There’s also been plenty of plays for him. That has also been a trend in the last two years, where you still get Butler going but it’s through movement instead. He may end up in the post but the goal would’ve been to get him a look off the ball.
This is also where his IQ and how he approaches cutting make a big difference. He knows how to get open. And when you add a mismatch to this equation where he’s getting fronted, you better send that help early in the paint because the sudden back cut is coming.
Or this is also where he gets those lob passes. With the Heat having Adebayo as the hub up top, there will be screens being set from Herro or Duncan drawing making the defense more confused with the threat of their shot, and usually,y Butler gets a dunk.
It’s these two actions that make up a significant part of his diet that makes him so efficient. 105 of his 323 points are this. He’s shooting 37/47!
Obviously, points are points but just to show how much that helps, for the year he has a 55.7% FG. Without those cuts, he’s at 48.2%. That’s a big difference and it will matter depending on what the conversation is around Butler.
Being efficient on opportunistic possessions is different from being highly efficient in on-ball roles if that’s the standard for the player.
On the other hand, if he is sharing the court where he doesn’t have to do much of the ball handling, then you’re getting one of the smartest, elite, and efficient off-ball players.
Small sample alert! But in 270 minutes since the lineup change on the 18th of November, Butler with Herro has a 66.3% eFG and 73.5%(!) TS with 20.3% usage. He’s shooting 63.5% from 2pt! That includes 73.1% at the rim with a 54.7% rim rate.
Whatever the context is or how he gets those points, there’s absolutely no denying that it’s highly, highly impactful, and also a little bit crazy.
Let’s move on to his on-ball scoring. That has more conversation around it for a few reasons.
But first, two more small sample stats. Above, I mentioned his stats with Herro. In 119 minutes without Herro, he’s still averaging 29.1 points per 75 possessions on 57.9% eFG and 68.7% TS with 26.0% usage! Do the same thing without Adebayo and it’s 29.5 points on 57.5% eFG and 71.4% TS with 24.7% usage.
He has still been very capable of putting up monster numbers even without either of the two top players.
Now, things will coincide. The highly efficient transition and cut buckets will come in play here, too, and with it being a small sample, things can easily be skewed positively or negatively very easily.
Before diving into the specifics, there’s also been a shift in his on-ball reps. It involves his splits with isolations + post ups vs PNR:
2020: 16.5 / 35.5
2021: 15.8 / 33.6
2022: 27.2 / 21.9
2023: 26.5 / 24.9
2024: 26.0 / 20.7
2025: 20.1 / 23.8
In the first two years, he was a PNR-dominant player with isolation second and limited post-up usage. Over the years, the PNR has been dropping with the post-up, in particular, being used more.
Outside of the PNR not being the highest level, we’re seeing more of the earlier version of Butler. Where the ratio is still more of PNR and post-ups dropping to one of his least used options.
So, let’s dig deep into those areas!
Pick and roll
This has also been one of his most efficient actions and it’s one of the best in the league. He ranks in the 93rd percentile as the ball handler in the PNR. He’s scoring 1.17 points per possession scoring 75 points on 64 possessions, whilst shooting 25/45.
This is the best season by a good margin, even when you just consider eFG%. Here’s his eFG% over the years, starting this year:
55.6% → 37.3% → 49.6% → 43.2% → 43.2% → 37.5%
It’s way above what he’s usually done in the PNR.
There are a few reasons for that. The first is they have made an effort to involve him in more guard screens to get mismatches. That has been the easiest source of offense because almost every time, it leads to a shot at the rim or a trip to the line.
That is the best way for him to get downhill. It’s attacking the defense that has to make a drastic decision. A lot of the time, the defense doesn’t want to fully switch, so now he has the lane to attack. He’s not going up against a defender going under the screen and having a drop big waiting for him.
Instead, he’s seeing Darius Garland or whoever they want to pick on trying not to get matched up with Butler. If that happens, that’s when Butler is able to put his foot on the gas and attack.
Combine that with his foul baiting(yes, I have to admit, he is baiting and grifting those fouls). That’s why he also has a 23.4% shooting foul rate and it’s needed.
Out of 81 players with at least 3 possessions as the ball handler, he is first in shooting foul frequency. It’s only him and Zion Williamson that have over 20%. The next players are Cam Thomas(18.5%), DeMar DeRozan(16.2%), and Bennedict Mathurin(16.1%).
He’s taking foul drawing to the next level and a lot of that stems from the defender having no choice but to foul.
Another stat to show how wild that foul rate is, here are the players using those same criteria of 3 possessions per game in foul rate since 2016 that have it higher than Butler this year:
Zion Williamson 2023: 24.8%
Giannis Antetokounmpo 2023: 23.7%
That’s it. That’s the list. This is also very much needed when he is going against traditional coverage. When it’s not attacking a mismatch against a switch or a show, then that’s where his shooting and foul drawing help a lot.
One thing that I’ve noticed that really helps and what he goes to commonly is rejecting that screen. Can’t face drop when you reject the screen! That’s when you’d see him get to the rim. That’s where he gains that advantage.
This is where his short mid-range is absolutely necessary. This is a big reason why his 2023 year was a career high and it’s all to do with the paint area.
In his career, he’s shooting 42.7% within 4-14ft on 25.0% frequency. The frequency has increased by over 10% in the last four seasons, but his accuracy has been up and down:
2025: 47.1% on 36.4% freq
2024: 43.9% on 37.6%
2023: 48.7% on 39.1%
2022: 43.4% on 36.4%
2021: 40.2% on 31.8%
2020: 40.9% on 32.6%
You can see the outliers here. That shot bouncing back has given him the best counter possible if he can’t get to the rim. It was this shot that was the reason why he absolutely cooked and demolished the Bucks’ defense in 2023, where he shot 60.5%. Because at that point, what are you meant to do? You can’t play drop defense if a player is scoring 1.20 points per shot in the area you want to give up.
That is what’s happening this year. His shooting touch has improved and it serves as the best counter. He may have lost a step where he can’t create the same looks at the rim, but you’ll still take a near 50% in the paint on top of the rim pressure that he still has.
You can also in the video how he loves to put defenders in jail. That’s where the foul drawing comes in. That has been highly effective for him.
Finally, equally as important to his efficiency is the lack of turnovers. He’s a very safe player and rarely turns the ball over. How rarely? Only 7.8% of the time. Out of those same 81 players, that ranks 8th lowest. That has been the trend for him.
Though, there is a give and take here. He might be less turnover-prone, but he also is leaving a lot on the table that could result in a better shot than a 48% shot in the paint.
Isolation & Post ups
This has been technically efficient when looking at the overall number. He is scoring 1.05 points per isolation. 39 points on 37 possessions, shooting 14/30(50.0% eFG). Then he adds 1.29 points per post up, scoring 22 points on 17 possessions, shooting 7/14(50.0%).
The shooting number isn’t that elite. Just having a 50% field goal also isn’t something to raise an eye either. He gets almost all of the efficiency through being careful with the ball and foul-baiting.
That’s why he has a 0% turnover freq on post-ups to go along with 29.4% foul freq. With his isolations, it’s 2.7% and 16.2%.
That’s why he still ends up scoring 61 points on 54 possessions(1.12) on those actions combined. It’s almost identical to how he operates in the PNR.
When there is a deliberate decision to get a mismatch involved, he has still found a way to get through them by any means necessary to get to the rim and draw fouls. That hasn’t changed. He can still cook(most) mismatches with ease.
If he has the space too and is smart enough to exploit the certain way the defender is positioned, he can beat them. That’s where his IQ comes into play. He will throw out a shimmy move. He will give a few fakes and dance around with the footwork to create more space.
At the same time, there is also a bigger reliance on getting and stopping in the paint. But that matters less when his shooting touch has bounced back to that extent.
This is a bit worse in the post. That’s where we only see him shoot 50%
Maybe this was a reason why there’s been a decline in this usage but on the limited sample, he hasn’t been able to get to his spots as easily and has settled on jumpers or looked to get bailed out with fouls(it’s worked so far).
Off-Ball
Finally, there are the off-ball scoring and spot-ups.
This hasn’t played a huge contribution to his efficiency. He has scored under 1.0 points per poss on spot-ups. He’s only shooting 35% on catch-and-shoot 3s.
But I have liked this from him:
Similar to his cutting, he has been used more frequently where he comes off a screen into the paint for those clean looks. Making him start without the ball is such an easier way for him to create the space he needs.
So, to wrap up. This is how Jimmy Butler has been having the most efficient season of his career.
His lower usage and involvement, particularly with the starters has been a key factor here. He’s involved less in actions that generally are more inefficient because it’s not self-created.
There’s a reason why bigs and role players typically are more efficient because they are used as play finishers. That has been a significant shift for Butler for a lot of his minutes with the starters.
That’s where he’s been able to capitalize on playing in transition and off-cuts. Two of his most efficient sources of offense accounts for over 30%.
But he’s been just as good on the ball. Most of it stems from his much improved PNR game, where he’s having a career season in eFG%. That comes from exploiting mismatches to a bigger degree and still being able to find ways to get to the rim. Combine that with a wild foul rate and low turnover rate, which only boosts his efficiency to an elite standard.
Whenever he can’t attack mismatches, he has found his touch again. It’s the same touch in that paint area that made him look like Michael Jordan against the Bucks.
That’s a similar approach to his effectiveness in isolation, with attacking mismatches. A decrease in a lesser efficient action with post-ups, and the recipe is there for being this efficient.
Now, I want to end this with what conclusion should you come away from this. Many will see this as a sign that playoff Jimmy is still there waiting and that the Heat should still continue to go for it, especially with an improved Herro.
This is where I’d disagree with that notion and wouldn’t put any stock in Butler’s game as a sign of a potential “playoff Jimmy” run that happened in 2022 or against the Bucks.
The standard for being the best player on a deep playoff team is more than being efficient at 20% usage. It’s more than being able to capitalize on cuts and in transition. It’s more than simply being able to attack mostly mismatches.
Those best players need to have the highest usage and lead the team in touches. That’s the part where I’m not sure and we won’t know until April, if he has that in his tank, not only for one series, but the next, and the next, and the next. That’s the biggest question that can’t be unanswered here in December.
When also looking at his misses and where has struggled, there have been clear signs of decline in being the engine of the offense. He hasn’t been able to get to the rim as easily against better defenders or exploit better defensive teams to the same degree. That will matter in a playoff setting.
What this has shown is if he’s in the right setting with the right kind of help that has a player capable of being the one that’s constantly relied upon to bend the defenses and create looks, then you can’t get much better than Butler.
Obviously, contracts and realism matter here, but purely from a basketball standpoint, where this version of Butler could help basically every single team. A random hypothetical, but had the Knicks threw what they did for Mikal Bridges for Butler, they probably would’ve been in a tier with the Celtics.
So, there’s nothing wrong or bad about Butler’s game in a vacuum, but in the context of needing him to be playoff Jimmy to carry a team(yes, he’d still have to carry even with Herro’s growth), that’s where this efficiency needs more context.
Still, outside of the disengaged games, when he’s showing up, he’s highly impactful and matters to wins a lot. He still has helped the Heat a lot more than he hasn’t.