How Tyler Herro Is Having a Career Year?
A breakdown going through how exactly Herro changed & improved his game to have a career year.
There are only eight players to that average at least 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, LaMelo Ball, Paolo Banchero, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Tyler Herro.
Of those eight players Herro has the highest eFG% with 64.3%, second highest 3pt% with 47.9%(Jokic with 56.4% on 3.9 attempts is also hilarious), 6th highest 2pt% with 54.7%, and highest TS% with 66.8%.
Tyler Herro is having the best start to his career. So far, in 10 games, he already has:
1x 40pt game
2x 30pt+ game
7x 20pt+ game
10 triples made in a game
8 triples made in a game
4x 5+ 3s made(he had 6 in 40 last year)
The Miami Heat haven’t had the perfect start to their season and haven’t exactly been great either, but that hasn’t stopped Herro from adapting his game, refining many areas, and continuing to improve.
But what exactly is different? What has he changed that has him post efficiency numbers that are on Kevin Durant’s, Stephen Curry’s, and Jokic’s level? Is he being used differently? Is there a change in how he gets his points? Or is it simply getting better at the things he was already doing?
All of that is what we’ll be looking at today. Let’s go through how exactly Herro got to the best start in his career.
Playtypes & How He’s Used
To start, let’s compare how he uses his possessions through the playtypes last year vs this year. Here’s the % of his total possessions:
P&R Ball handler: 32.2% → 36.0%
Spot up: 18.0% → 17.1%
Transition: 17.4% → 17.1%
Handoffs: 14.0% → 13.7%
Off-screen: 6.9% → 6.2%
Isolation: 3.9% → 4.7%
Misc: 3.5% → 3.3%
Cut: 2.2% → 0.9%
Others: 1.9% → 1.0%
The thing that stands out here is that there isn’t anything that stands out. A few percentages here and there in only 10 games isn’t a significant difference to point in either direction.
The ways he’s getting his points are fairly the same. It’s through being the ball handler in the P&R, followed by transition, spot-ups, and handoffs. The order and the % are the same.
One thing that I do want to note because this was a conversation throughout the whole two seasons and it involves Herro playing more off-ball. That has improved, but more so in the effectiveness rather than volume. There hasn’t been a significant shift in getting the offense as a spot-up shooter, cutter, or generally moving without the ball where it doesn’t end with just him running an on-ball action.
Instead, all of this tells us that this career start happened because of certain changes that made him more effective across the board. So, let’s look at the effectiveness in those play types:
P&R Ball Handler: 0.945 PPP & 53.0% TS → 0.895 & 56.6%
Spot up: 1.108 & 59.0% → 1.556 & 76.0%
Transition: 1.034 & 57.8% → 1.528 & 82.2%
Handoffs: 0.874 & 51.7% → 1.103 & 61.1%
Off-screen: 1.070 & 58.8% → 1.231 & 62.7%
Isolation: 1.050 & 57.5% → 0.900 & 50.7%
This is where we’re seeing a huge difference. Here are the differences:
P&R Ball Handler: -0.05 & +3.6%
Spot up: +0.448 & +17.0%
Transition: +0.494 & +24.4%
Handoffs: +0.229 & +10.6%
Off-screen: +0.161 & +3.9%
Isolation: -0.15 & -6.8%
It’s funny seeing a double-digit increase in his TS%. That is a wild jump.
With his P&R, he has been more efficient when it comes to scoring the ball himself but the overall number gets dragged down a bit with an increase in turnovers. His TOV% went from 10.9% to 21.1%, which will have to be addressed because that’s a significant issue.
Finally, here are also his tracking stats in terms of touches and usage:
All of this shows similarity to last year. The usage is almost identical with his touches, scoring possessions, time on-ball, and usage. That’s why the whole conversation with his start has to do with how he goes about his offense and how that translated to being more effective.
Shot Diet
Everything starts with the shot diet. Outside of some hot shooting, this has been the biggest difference maker that changed a lot.
Here’s how he’s been getting his shots:
Catch and shoot 3s: 4.2 FGA(23.9% of FGA) → 5.4(31.8%)
Pull up 2s: 4.3(24.4%) → 1.9(11.2%)
Pull up 3s: 3.8(21.4%) → 4.2(24.7%)
Less than 10ft: 4.9(27.9%) → 5.4(31.8%)
Here’s his shot profile:
2PT: 14.2(54.7%) → 10.9(43.5% freq)FGA per 100
3PT: 11.7(45.3%) → 14.1(56.5%)
Rim(within 4ft): 2.9(11.1%) → 4.6(18.2%)
Short mid-range(4-14ft): 7.8(30.2%) → 5.9(23.5%)
Long mid-range(14-3pt): 3.4(13.3%) → 0.4(1.7%)
So, what stands out?
If you were a fan of the dead ball era in the 00s, you might say that analytics stands out and the pure tough mid-range died. And that would be correct.
Herro went completely away from the long 2s. Throughout his career, that has been a significant part of his shot diet. For his career, that took around 15% of his shots and he shot 40.8%. It's not the best thing in the world.
Now, he traded those long pull-up 2s for more threes, both off the catch and off the dribble.
One major poor habit last year with Herro was either passing up contested 3s or dribbling into a pull-up. That’s where a lot of those long 2s came from. Last year 19% of his 3s were either tight or very tight. It jumped to 27% this year. He has been more willing to take those contested 3s and the benefits are showing. He’s a marksman from deep even when there’s a hand in his face(he’s shooting 47.8% on tight 3s right now).
This one aspect alone already helped a lot with his efficiency. This is where some of the increase in off the catch 3pt shooting has come up.
But this doesn’t stop here. He has also been getting to the rim more, though he hasn’t been converting as much. But even at 54% at the rim, which would be awful finishing, that’s still better than a 40% jumper or even a 45% floater. That’s how important looks at the rim are. You can be the worst finisher in basketball and that will still be a lot more efficient than any floater or jumper you can take.
So, with the elimination of the long 2 and a drop in those paint shots, that’s a big reason why his 2pt% went from 48.2% to 55.4%. Big difference.
Here’s his rim or 3pt freq over the years:
63.1% → 62.6% → 56.4% → 61.7% → 56.4% → 74.7%(!)
75% of his shots are at the rim or from 3pt. This. This has been the biggest shift that benefited him a lot. He wasn’t magically going to turn himself into a rim-finishing or foul-drawing machine, but adjusting the shot profile like this can be a good way to maximize your play elsewhere. A pull-up 3pt for a guard that doesn’t get to the rim is the way to go.
But then his average 2pt shot distance also dropped:
11.0 → 9.2 → 9.4 → 9.2 → 9.6 → 5.9
He has been a lot more aggressive in getting to the rim, which is second-best in his career.
Finally, it also has to be said that a big part of this scoring burst is the hot 3-point shooting. He’s shooting 47.9% from 3pt — up from 39.6%. And the fact that he’s doing it on over 14 3s per 100 is simply incredible. It is still a 10-game sample, though, which should be looked at with caution.
With all of that out of the way, let’s go through the film and see all of those points and how those stats have translated onto the court.
Film Breakdown: His Scoring
Transition scoring
Off-ball scoring via catch-and-shoot 3s and beating closeouts
On-ball scoring via P&R, handoffs, and isolation
Transition scoring
Let’s start with the simplest, but one of the most effective ways he generated so many points, and that’s in transition.
Right now, that’s tied for his second most-used play type. He has scored 55 points on 33 true shooting attempts, which is only 82.2% TS. He’s generating 1.63 points per shot in transition — to simply show accuracy, he’s 63.6% from the field.
It’s a whole bunch of transition 3s. He loves that pull-up and will let it fly with confidence. If he sees the defense not fully on him, that’s going to be a pull-up and right now, it’s a damn good chance it’s going in. That’s how they made the comeback against the Pistons.
A very simple thing but becoming one of the deadliest players in transition has been the easiest way to boost all of his scoring.
Out of 47 players with at least 30 shots in transition, he’s fourth in overall efficiency and first in eFG%. He’s been more efficient than Antetokounmpo, who either gets a dunk or gets to the line(28.6% free throw freq in transition is also hilarious).
Off-Ball Scoring
The next(also his most efficient play type) effective way he’s been getting buckets is via spot-ups. He’s scoring 1.556 points per possession with a 76.0% TS(that is lower than transition but efficiency per possession is higher due to having 0% TOV).
Although the volume still isn’t particularly high(17% of his possessions and only 3.2 shots per game), he has been more effective in two ways.
Firstly, he’s shooting 50.0% — just absolutely lethal off the catch. As mentioned earlier where he’s taking more contested 3s, that willingness contributes to being better here. Last year, when he got the ball on a kick or a swing, it could’ve been holding the ball and reset or it’s going attacking for a pull-up 2pt. Trading those possessions for more C&S 3pt is a very simple way of getting better looks.
But more importantly, he’s been more active off-ball. The volume doesn’t show it, but when he is off-ball, he’s setting more ghost screens. He’s being used as a screener in double P&Rs(a lot of Spain P&R) where he pops. And the movement is a lot better to exploit overhelping or ball-watching defenses.
Although it classed as something different, including with the off-ball scoring, he has been used off-screen a handful of times scoring 1.231 points per possession. That’s where shooting 50% of the catch helps a lot.
On top of the shooting, there have been a few times where he’s beating the closeout instead. For the most part, his off-ball scoring does typically end with a 3-point shot.
That’s all of the off-ball scoring and in transition. This is still one of the things that still should continue to develop and increase in volume. One thing in particular is the cutting. He has had 2 possessions finishing as a cutter. When a player is this effective as an off-ball player, the volume needs to go up — even on-ball players should have a better balance with this,
On-Ball Scoring
Moving onto his on-ball scoring, this is where we some bigger improvements and changes to his game. This is where his improvement as an off-dribble shooter shows up a lot, with his aggressiveness, and his touch around the paint. This is also where we see more of his inside game rather than 3s.
The first thing to touch on, though, is the 3-point shooting off P&R and handoffs because that is still a big part of his game(though not entirely). They are classed differently and are also set up differently, of course, but I still see this in a similar way. It still involves a 2-man action and a pick being set with the ball handler making a decision on what to do next.
Starting off with the handoffs:
I don’t have the official stats for this, but it does feel like he has made it more of an effort to go for 3s out of a handoff that won’t require dribbling. This is where some of his 0 dribble 3s(which are also classed as C&S 3pt) would come off a handoff.
Herro has been consistently a much better shooter without dribbling a ton. This year, he’s 27/54 on 3s off 0 dribbles and 7/14 off 1 dribble. All these handoffs do is set him up for an off-the-catch 3pt that he loves and is so good at.
With the P&Rs, it’s hunting that deep drop coverage:
This is another common way of him getting those 3s up and it’s whenever the defense plays in a drop. So far, he has improved a lot when it comes to shooting off the dribble or creating for himself.
On 3s off different number of dribbles:
2 dribbles: 3/7
3-6 dribbles: 5/13
7+ dribbles: 4/8
That’s 12/28(43%) off at least two dribbles. 29% of his 3s are via off dribble. For comparison, last year, he was 30/89(34%), which was 27% of his offense. So, the volume is still relatively the same but he’s become a lethal off-the-dribble shooter.
This is what is standing out to start the year. He has never been this good. His previous best was 37% in 2023. This can be a game-changer for him going forward if he remains to be this elite.
But this is just his 3s. He is, after all, still shooting a career-high from inside the arc too. In fact, out of isolations, P&R, and handoffs, he’s taking more 2s than 3s. 65% of his shots out of those types are inside.
Going back to the handoffs, this has also been a good way of getting him going downhill and attacking. This is where those get actions are very effective for him.
Take the clip at the 0:20 mark where it’s throwing the ball to Adebayo and now he has the advantage over Hart to attack Towns in a drop. He gets the drive and goes for the floater.
When it comes to his drives off a P&R, this is where he looks different compared to last year. He seems more in control and patient to decide how he’s going to attack.
And the area that he’s most comfortable in, within the paint, he’s got better there too. He’s shooting 55.0% from within 4-14ft. That’s up from 50.0% last year, which was a career-high then. Those floaters and runners have been one of the most effective weapons for him.
But the biggest difference is how he looks in isolation:
This is where you see the increase in rim rate. This has been probably the most impressive change and improvement in his game. He doesn’t look to shy away from contact anymore.
That makes sense why his free throw rate is .205, which is a career-high. Even looking solely at his 2pt foul rate(some of his free throws have been boosted by 3pt fouls), it’s a career high by a good margin.
His 2pt foul drawn rate over the years:
8.1% → 9.1% → 9.8% → 11.1% → 10.1% → 15.5%
You can definitely see that when he looks to attack.
Beyond that, he’s been able to get by defenders easier in those isolation situations better than last year a mile. The finishing at the rim still needs a lot of work, though, but as mentioned before, the worst rim finisher is still producing a relatively good %.
So, this is everything when it comes to Herro’s scoring.
How he’s been used hasn’t changed much, if at all. The conversation around him playing more off-ball just hasn’t been the case for his jump.
What has changed is simply effectiveness across the board through some hot shooting, being a better off-the-dribble shooter, being more aggressive in attacking, and adjusting his shot diet to being more analytically friendly.
The hot shooting has boosted his transition and spot-up scoring to insane levels. That alone has generated so many points for him. 112/249 points are in those two areas. Almost half of his offense!
But his on-ball scoring is more than just potential shooting variance. It’s eliminating all of the long 2s. It’s getting to the rim more. It’s even adjusting more in handoffs to get more shots off the catch. And it’s also upping your efficiency off the dribble by almost 10%.
There are some questions when it comes to the sustainability of this level of efficiency, at least in certain areas. That may drop off some of the scoring and the overall effectiveness.
But what shouldn’t be much of a question is how he goes about the offense. The change in shot diet seems like a legit development going forward and even with drop-offs in the 3-point shooting, that alone should boost him well above what he was doing last year.
Right now, he’s been hooping and everything he’s done has been a big reason why the Heat have either won games or were in position to win it. The Heat have needed this level of shot-making.