Miami Heat 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
From October to April, this was the same Miami Heat season as last year, except this time, we didn’t get the potential playoff run with everyone healthy. That’s the most unfortunate part.
Whatever the outcome could’ve been, it doesn’t matter. For all we know, that core fully healthy could’ve had the same result, losing to the Celtics in a bad fashion. But if that was to happen, the view of this team could’ve been different and pushed them in a different direction.
There is the whole question of what could they have done if they were healthy. There’s no way of finding that out without seeing it and because of it, you can talk yourself into it and simply have hope.
But all of the signs still point in the opposite direction. They were again one of the worst offensive teams. They were again one of the least healthy teams. Their best players together again weren’t a good fit and weren’t winning together.
These weren’t questions that popped up just this year with them either. They are not at the stage anymore where they can or should be patient with this. This is year six and the best player is 35 years old.
They did look to address that with a Terry Rozier trade mid-way through the season, but because they’re the Heat, he had to get injured. That move was also questionable with them trading their pick and an expiring that would’ve given them a lot more flexibility below the second apron.
Focusing on individual players, there were a bunch of positives. We saw Duncan Robinson bouncing back, Jaime Jaquez Jr had a solid rookie season, Nikola Jovic improved a lot, and role players did their job.
At the top, though, Jimmy Butler had a significant drop-off compared to his career year in 2023. There were signs of a decline across the board. And with both Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, they had an okay season that was relatively the same as last year.
Their off-season was… sigh. The only way I thought that this team could’ve helped themselves was by reshuffling the core. They needed a change for something new. Sometimes, a change for the sake of change is needed, especially when even in previous years of competing, the core still needed moves to get over the hump.
That change was bringing in Alec Burks, drafting Kel’el Ware, a bunch of 2-way players, and bringing back all of the role players. Even if you want to make an argument that Rozier, because of his late start and injury, should be seen as the acquisition, that would still be disappointing because who do you think Rozier is?
On top of that, there’s the whole Butler situation with the extension and potentially him playing his last season with Miami. That’s always fun to have to think about.
So, this is potentially the last season of this core.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Heat:
What is Butler’s contract year going to look like
Who even starts for the Heat?
Jaquez’s and Jovic’s growth. Can they take a leap to swing things for the Heat?
Can Highsmith expand and improve his game even more?
Is the new improved Duncan Robinson here to stay
Ware-Adebayo minutes
Rozier-Herro backcourt. Should that be it?
How much will Rozier change things?
Will the offense finally be better? Is it still running things through Adebayo and Herro?
Can the adjust their shot profile and style?
What’s next for Adebayo offensively?
Can Adebayo finally win DPOY?
Will the defense be just as good? Even against better competition?
Butler bouncing back
The only thing that matters is Butler. This isn’t complicated. This isn’t special to the Heat. If a team wants to be a contender, the best players need to be playing like the best players.
There is no way to go around that. There is no alternative to winning at the highest level. Because at this point, offensively, this wasn’t a team led by Butler consistently — that’s why they’ve been bad.
The Heat’s season starts here. Heading into this season, Butler is playing for a new contract. That alone should make this season different.
If you want to read exactly what’s needed from Butler, you can check out the deep dive here:
If the Heat want to have a different season, Butler will have to turn back time. If Butler wants to have the chance to get paid, he will have to turn back time.
He averaged just over 67 touches per 75 possessions. That was easily the lowest in these five years. In his first three seasons, that never went below 75. He needs to be more involved in the offense period. Before talking about him bouncing back, he needs to be in the position to actually have a bigger impact in the first place.
There is no best player on any top team where the best player is third or fourth in touches for most of the season. That would be even lower when just looking at lineups that include both Adebayo and Herro on the court — he had a 20% usage with both on.
With a full off-season getting back to 100%, there is a chance that this bounces back. I’m not sure how likely that is going to be given his past and the way he plays. There’s also the fact that there aren’t many players in recent memory that have been the best players on a contending team at 35 with that kind of offensive workload. The names that come to mind are Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. That’s not encouraging at all.
This will be the biggest question for the Heat in the regular season and the playoffs. Which Jimmy Butler will the Heat get?
But what’s even more discouraging is whatever one they do get, it may still not be enough. If Butler does bounce back to what he was doing in 2022, is he also at the age where he can do that through 82 games and play at a top-10 level in the playoffs?
I am expecting a much better Butler because he hasn’t given me a lot to doubt him but I also don’t know how much of that will matter, at least in the regular season. We already saw Butler have a career year in 2023 and they were a play-in team.
The team’s offense
Why would this year be any different? I said last year that without another top 15-20 caliber player offensively, this team will struggle. That hasn’t changed — Rozier is not that difference maker.
A big part of that is how the offense has been running in these two seasons(partly because of Butler coasting more, which he can change that). I recently went through the changes in the team’s offense and how each player’s offense has evolved.
The biggest change? It was shifting towards more isolations and scoring in the post. It was also giving more responsibility to both Herro and Adebayo. That’s why their on-ball usage went up. That wasn’t great. There weren’t enough changes in their offense and their skill set to make that work.
Whether or not Butler bounces back, will they remain with that offense? Will they remain with an offense that caters to them despite that leading to a bunch of games scoring sub-100?
With both Herro and Adebayo improving individually(because they clearly have in many areas), I don’t see a reason why they can’t run the offense that was similar to 2020. The issues that hurt the offense then with Herro, Robinson, and Adebayo being more limited aren’t there anymore.
This team has the potential to be more versatile, effective, and dangerous than what they were in 2020.
Imagine a dribble handoff offense with this Robinson that can do more if the defense runs him off the line.
Imagine that offense with Adebayo being the hub that can create a shot for himself if the defense gives him that.
Imagine that offense with now both Jovic and Jaquez being great off-ball movers that can finish better at the rim.
There are more possibilities now. Erik Spoelstra needs to find ways to be more creative offensively because this team, considering their talent and how much Butler coasts shouldn’t be this bad. It shouldn’t be in the same range in the rankings as a team led by Cam Thomas.
This should be there to address one of their biggest concerns with relying too much on inefficient shots. They are a mid-range heavy team without also being an elite one. Even the shots that both Herro and Adebayo have developed to be better, still don’t move the defenses. Their shot diet has to change.
Maybe after two years of whatever this was, there are going to be significant changes.
Rozier’s impact
How much will Rozier have an impact on that? I went through a deep dive into his game, not only how he looked in Miami but what he was like in Charlotte, to see what he can give the Heat:
Not considering Butler’s role here, I don’t see Rozier himself changing much. I don’t think he’s that good of a player when put in similar situations where he has to be on-ball a lot. He’s an average pick-and-roll handler for his career. He’s not a great passer. He can take guys off the dribble and create space for himself. But he’s not anything special that changes things for teams in that role.
On the other hand, he is the best guard that they’ve had since Goran Dragic when it comes to rim pressure and simply scoring:
This is a significant upgrade to what they had in the last two seasons by a good margin. This jump should be felt immediately, even if he’s in the wrong role and has too high of a usage.
But that’s where it ends with him if he’s going to be placed in a similar role that he was in Charlotte or what Herro was doing here.
How good of a pickup Rozier is will depend on the offense run and Butler. If the offense is identical or similar to what it is now but shifts some of the responsibility from Herro to Rozier, the offense will struggle again.
If the offense is filled with more movement, more handoffs, more 3s, and there’s a more engaged Butler, that’s where he can make a significant difference. He is a much better off-ball player at that guard spot that they had recently. Combine that with being an average scorer, passer, and okay rim pressure, that’s when it can work.
I may also be kind of underrating what Rozier has done in that role with Charlotte too because even with that his impact metrics on offense were solid. Per BBall-Index, here’s his offensive LEBRON in the last three seasons: +1.14, +1.55, +1.13. That would rank 6th, 7th, and 8th out of all on-ball Heat players in that span.
He should raise the floor of this team even if it’s marginal.
Herro’s & Adebayo’s role
Equally as important, there’s Herro and Adebayo. What is their role going to look like? In these two seasons, they saw a lot more usage, a lot more touches, and a lot more offense running through them.
Again, if you want to find out more about their seasons specifically, you can find the Herro deep dive here and an Adebayo deep dive here!
Both players will have to see their offense change drastically. This is again not considering Butler. Whether he has an identical season or not, they can’t come in playing in the same way that they did this year.
For Herro, that needs to be embracing a more off-ball role. He hasn’t at any point been more of an off-ball player than on-ball. When looking at the changes for each player’s offense, he was the one that changed the least. We need to see those changes now. This whole experiment with him being pushed into this role hasn’t worked.
At this point, for me, this is a make-or-break season for him. I’m not hoping for miracles or for him to completely improve his game where he can be the focal point of an offense, learn to draw fouls and provide that rim pressure. That’s not what the hope is for anymore.
The hope is for simply reinventing his game. He has the skill set to be a more effective and impactful player. Can we see him play more like Robinson? Can we see him improve the rim finishing? Can he have a better shot selection and shot diet? Can he take more contested 3s than pull up for 2? Can he put more effort in defensively?
He needs to show that he can have a significant impact on both ends of the floor that doesn’t end with simply 20 points on 18 shots.
With Adebayo, there’s a lot that needs to change too. He also has been put into a role that has him take many more shots for himself, particularly in the post, a lot of that has to change.
There’s a reason why he had his least impactful offensive season. 30% of his offense is either in isolation or as a post-up. He was one of the worst rollers because he settled for the jumper far too many times. The habit of going up for a contested shot rather than making the pass earlier hurt too.
Similar to Herro, there’s been this push that has him in that role, and have the freedom to take those shots. That was needed considering where he was earlier. He has developed a good shot for himself. He can create in the mid-range. But just because he can, that doesn’t mean that he should do this at this volume.
This is a big reason why the offense has suffered. He has been used as an inefficient scorer rather than the hub for everyone else.
Can we see him roll harder to the rim? Can he become more of a threat at the rim as a self-creator? Can he learn to be a passer and a scorer better at the same time?
The most fun question is will he turn himself into a spacer? He’s talked about this a lot more. He was taking 3s towards the end of the season. He was taking 3s in the Olympics. Is that here to stay? Is he going to come out and take 3? 5? 7? 3s per game. Depending on how far it will go, that can change a lot for this team’s rotations and offense.
He is coming off a great Olympic run and that could be the difference maker in his confidence and change in mentality to take that leap. Regardless of how he’s going to be used, his approach on offense is going to be key to monitor.
I am very curious about the direction that Spoelstra will go with when it comes to both Adebayo and Herro offensively because my gut feeling says it will be more of the same thing, though.
The Young & Role Player’s Development
That was just talking about the players with the most expectations. They do have players around them that can fill out the rest of the team well.
Highsmith, Robinson, Jaquez, and Jovic. Those four all have the skill set to be effective and help the team a lot(this part does depend a lot on Butler). If the best player is playing like he’s top 15 and the other two adapt their role to fit that, these four players can complement everyone so well.
Starting with Robinson, he already had the best season of his career. Here’s a deep dive into everything that has changed in his game!
How much of that is here to stay? How will he react to the defenses not being shocked that he can do all of the extra stuff? Is there anything more that he can realistically add or improve on?
I don’t think this was just a blip, nor was it him taking advantage of the defense not being prepared. His movement isn’t predicated on the defense not scheming for him. His IQ and passes will always be there. His gravity as a 3-point shooter will never change.
The only thing that I could see take a dip was his pick and roll, but that wasn’t that big part of his game when it came to the improvement that got the most impact.
If he’s healthy, I’m expecting as good of a season as he just had.
Highsmith is pretty simple. His defense is going to be key where he’s able to take on the toughest matchups consistently. That has been fun to watch and I can’t wait to watch Highsmith play defense.
But it will be his offense that will determine how much he plays. Can he continue to improve as a shooter? He did see an increase already this year but it hasn’t been as consistent and the shooting did fall off at times, particularly in the playoffs. Can he be more consistent?
Can we also see something new from him? He has flashed some screening and fake handoffs but the end results weren’t always pretty. But he has been a smart passer, so there is some potential in him giving you the little things.
But it’s both Jovic and Jaquez that can swing so much for this team. If there’s anything that is absolutely worth watching is those two’s development.
Jaquez already showed that he has what it takes to be the third-best player on this team(here’s a deep dive into him!). He can provide rim pressure off the dribble better than anyone not named Butler. He can do so in the pick-and-roll, isolation, or in the post. He shot 65% at the rim with over 3 unassisted shots. That’s impressive. That has the potential to be higher.
If he doesn’t get any better, the floor for him is already one of the more efficient wings that can handle the ball at times and also flash passing chops. But he should get better and that’s a thing to watch out for.
The biggest issue with the Heat’s offense is the fact they only have Butler who can comfortably take guys off the dribble and provide rim pressure. Jaquez flashed that a lot but if he can reach another gear then this changes everything.
There’s a lot that can change if the Heat do look to get him more involved. Is he going to get more usage and touches with the ball? Will he show some of the needed improvements, such as developing a pull-up shot in the mid-range? Can he deal with the increase in responsibility? Is he also going to grow into a better defender because that was questionable?
Jovic is a bit different because the answers to his questions will help the team in a completely different way. He has the skill set that can give this team the perfect frontcourt partner next to Adebayo.
He took massive leaps as a defender this year that allowed him to be on the court. It wasn’t at a great level but it was good. There were still many questions on that end but they were starting to get addressed. Is he going to be a plus defender? That alone helps this team drastically.
Offensively, he was doing his job. He was shooting around 40% on over 9 3s per 100. With the shooting, smart off-ball, and potential defensive improvement, he should lock himself in for the starting four spots.
But will that be it for him? Is he going to be just that role-player? He does have a high ceiling but I’m not sure how likely that can happen.
Rotations & How Will This All Fit
So, tying all of that up, what even is their starting five? That is something that I went into more detail here:
The only consensus is that Butler and Adebayo are starting. That’s it. That’s the only thing that we know with 100% certainty. Some spots are likely locked up but anything can happen. We know those two are starting.
Because there are potential questions for everything else. Regardless of how likely some of the lineups may happen, there are arguments for so many scenarios.
There’s the backcourt conversation. Should it be Herro-Rozier? That’s not ideal considering their playstyles on offense and defense. It’s going to take either of them completely reinventing their games to make any of this work.
Should Herro be off the bench? That has been the conversation for some time, but I don’t even see that as a thing anymore. Bench or not, it all depends on how he plays and how much he can adjust his game.
Should Robinson start then? That is my option. The fit with the best players was better with him. He plays in a way that helps them a lot more. With all of the improvements, this should be a no-brainer.
Rozier needs to be starting. I don’t see the need for him off the bench. He can help the team in various roles more than what Herro was doing in his role.
There’s the frontcourt conversation too. Is it Jovic or Highsmith starting? Or both? Jovic should be a look. With what he provides at that size and the improved defense, there is no argument that he shouldn’t be a lock to start. There’s no one else that can replicate what he gives them at that level.
But there is also a debate with Ware and Adebayo. This is something that I also went into more detail here:
As well as the whole conversation around Adebayo as the four here! I don’t see this as a meaningful thing. They won’t start and I don’t see them getting huge minutes, especially at the start. They will definitely experiment with it to see what they have but I wouldn’t bank on this being a thing they go to often. This all depends on Adebayo’s growth offensively.
Rounding this out, all of the lineup configuration depends on Butler. Whatever lineup it is, they will need Butler playing at his best. They will need him to take charge of each lineup. Because a lot of these 5-man lineups’ stats will look worse than it is because he’s third or fourth in usage.
Will Their Defense Look Better?
Adebayo just had one of the best defensive seasons in his career in such a different context. He was used in more drop and was still just as effective.
I only talked about the questions on offense but their defense also has a bunch. Will they go in the same direction as this year? Will they use Adebayo in the same way?
With potentially more size, will see those lineups used more to help Adebayo not do too much work? Maybe that is where Ware and Adebayo will see minutes.
One thing that popped up was their defense dipping against better competition. There were teams that gave them so many issues that it’s hard to see how they would answer that.
If Highsmith doesn’t start, who’s guarding the point of attack? If Jovic doesn’t start, who’s taking those bigger wings? What’s Butler’s intensity on defense going to be? How is he going to be used primarily? Can they cover up for both Rozier and Herro getting hunted?
And can this be the year that Adebayo finally wins his DPOY? That needs to happen.
Predictions
43-48 wins
Floor(worst case scenario) 8th seed, play-in
Ceiling(best case scenario) Top 5 seed
Now, I don’t know how much I can believe in this team having a different season from start to finish.
I say start to finish because I don’t know if they can do both where they have a good regular season and a good playoff run.
The change is simple to have a better offense and a better regular season, Butler has to play better and be more involved. I do think that can easily happen. This should be a different Butler heading into the year with the contract over his head. But what does that will result in?
The Heat’s offense is clicking better and they win more games. They are fourth in the East. Will Butler then be able to carry them again through the playoffs at a top 5 level?
That’s the worry. In 2022, he could’ve but that was a team led by the defense and everyone else where. In 2023, he wasn’t high usage and they barely scraped in to give him that opportunity. He won’t be able to take it easy as he did in those seasons. And if he does, this team will again find themselves in the play-in looking to crawl into the playoffs.
Because for the last two years, the only way they had a chance at a ring was Butler playing like a top 5 player and/or having a top 5 defense or having absurd 3-point shooting. This team didn’t have much margin of error in 2023.
I do think the supporting pieces can potentially be better. Jaquez, Jovic, and Robinson are better. Rozier gives you something that they didn’t have since Dragic.
Everything for the Heat lies with Butler, both in the regular season and the playoffs.
That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up in the exact spot they were in these two seasons. But if Butler does step up, then that would help things significantly, but would raise more questions if he can do it in the playoffs.
With all that said, I’m still looking forward to everything. I have no reason right now to doubt Butler, so it’s blind faith banking on him and hoping everyone else can still improve and fall back into the right role later. If that can happen, they can have a good shot if things fall right.