Miami Heat 2024-25 Season Review
A discussion on the season as a whole
Welcome to the 2024-25 Miami Heat season review. Although the season is still very much alive and I am expecting now a playoff appearance after beating the Atlanta Hawks, not much is going to change in what happened through 82 games from October to April.
So, let’s just go through some of the main takeaways from the season and have a discussion on what this season has been like.
A look at the season preview
The first thing I wanted to look at is what I was saying before the season in my season preview. Here are some of the main points and key questions heading into the season:
What is Butler’s contract year going to look?
Who even starts?
Jaquez’s and Jovic’s growth?
Can Highsmith expand and improve his game even more?
Is the new improved Duncan here to stay?
Ware-Adebayo minutes
Rozier-Herro backcourt
How much will Rozier change things?
Will the offense be better?
What’s next for Adebayo offensively?
Will the defense be just as good, even against better competition
Those were the main points, and some of my predictions were 43-48 wins with the floor being the eighth seed and the ceiling being a top-five seed.
Fair to say that the prediction was quite wrong. But let’s quickly dive into some of those questions.
What was Butler going to look like?
Well, with the Heat, he averaged 20.7 points, 5.8 assists and 6.2 rebounds per 75 possessions on 56.8% eFG and 63.8% TS. That was, in a way, a bounce back season from last year. But that still doesn’t the full story.
He end up having one of the most efficient season of his career again, but that was also done in one of the lower volumes. The main talking point in the season preview was him dropping off in touches and not being involved in the offense to a big extent.
That didn’t go as it should. Literally from the very first game of the season, he scored three points on eight shots. That was the game in which he had fewer touches than Haywood Highsmith.
As the season went on, that did look better. He was more engaged, and he was having his typical games, but that still wasn’t the usual Butler. That was still a Butler that wasn’t involved in the offense as much.
The starting group changed a lot often. They had 28 different starting lineups, with the highest being 16 games of Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Butler, Highsmith, and Bam Adebayo. That was the only lineup with double digits games. The next highest was the initial starting lineup with Terry Rozier and Nikola Jovic instead of Robinson and Highsmith. And the final lineup was completely different with Davion Mitchell, Kel’el Ware and Andrew Wiggins.
There were questions about the Rozier-Herro backcourt, even though, Spoelstra shutdown any potential questioning it. That didn’t work out at all. With Rozier and Herro on, the Heat were -4.3 net with a 111.9 ORTG. That jumped to +4.4 and 117.8 without Rozier. Fair to say that the backcourt didn’t work out at all.
Figuring out the frontcourt partner was also a question. Jovic started initially but that didn’t go well and I feel like that was a lot on Jovic not being effective in that off-ball/spot up role. They experimented with Highsmith, which was one of the better alternatives.
But in the end, they finally did it. They went into the Ware-Adebayo minutes. With both on, the Heat are +6.4 with 116.9 ORTG and 110.5 DRTG. They did quite well together considering the concerns and fit questions. That has been now something that is set as their main starters. Although, that is still only reserved for starting games and starting second halves. Those two have only played 10 games in the fourth over ~5 minutes.
Outside of that, there were still a bunch of experiments being made, especially post-deadline. Alec Burks started a bunch. So did Mitchell. So did Robinson. I still don’t feel like they figured out what the best possible rotations should be.
That wasn’t made any easier with Jovic being out, Rozier forgetting to play basketball, Wiggins being injured, and Jaquez having a massive sophomore slump.
And on that point, the growth and leap from both Jovic and Jaquez were quite underwhelming. With the season they both had last year, that wasn’t exactly smooth sailing this year. That probably wasn’t anything that the Heat expected and neither did I.
Rozier. Yeah, I was too high on him even considering kind of scenario and in fact, some of the things I mentioned that I thought would do good for him happened but he didn’t perform to the standard.
I mentioned that how good of a pickup Rozier is going to be depends on the offense run. If it was going to lean Rozier with the ball and being “Hornets” Rozier, then we’ll see the offense struggle. Whereas if we see the offense filled with more movement, handoffs, and more 3s, then there’s the potential for Rozier to be better.
Boy, was I wrong. I had much higher expectations for Rozier in an off-ball role, considering he did do well with the Hornets with a healthy LaMelo Ball. That went completely the opposite way.
Speaking of the offense, this was the same thing I talked about entering the 2023-24 season. Why would this year be any different? Without a consistent top 20 player offensively, this wasn’t going to do much. Butler did have the most efficient season of his career, but it wasn’t in a way that would impact the offense significantly.
We did see a change. The last two years it was a lot more isolation and post ups and PNR for either Herro and Adebayo.
I guess I also really overestimated what the issues are offensively, that even with the changes, I was still wrong about it making any kind of difference. I said:
“I don’t see a reason why they can’t run the offense that was similar to 2020. This team has the potential to be more versatile, effective and dangerous than what they were in 2020. Imagine the dribble handoff offense with this Robinson… Imagine that offense with Adebayo being the hub that can create a shot for himself…”
They were 21st last year on offense and they are 21st on offense this year. Just by looking at raw ORTG, they actually dropped from 114.4 to 113.6. For comparison, in 2020, they were seventh with 112.9. In a league that has changed a lot in those five years where the offense got better league wide, they were still only 0.7 points better.
I talked about the shot profile needing to change to be more efficient. That marginally improved. Their 3pt rate went from 39.4% to 42.9%. Not even one more percent at the rim. Though they did go away from the paint 2s and long 2s by a combined of around ~4%.
Still, the offense may have changed but the effectiveness and the issues continue to hurt them remain. That’s why they were also 25th on offense with 107.9 against top 10 teams on defense, per CTG.
Similarly, that was also the topic for the defense. They did, in the end, finish top 10 on defense(9th) but that dropped to 20th against top 10 offensive teams. That was the case last year too where their defense drops off against better competition, which is concerning.
This year, we also seen a shift in their defensive principles where they went away form being an elite turnover machine to below average. Instead, they get their defense by closing possessions and never fouling. Which is also why they ranked below average in eFG%.
All in all, looking back at the season preview and comparing it to now, I don’t know how much of a success this was. They did kind of answer a lot of them that would make you think it was a good thing. Except the results didn’t go the way you would’ve wanted. But at least the process was there and you can build on that.
Season Review
Moving onto the actual season review and all other thoughts related to the season.
This was a weird season. I feel like it’s always going to be weird when you have a transition period in the middle of the season that basically forced you into that situation.
I don’t know how many could’ve predicted what happened with Butler. It wasn’t a great start to the season with him either, and that also started way before the season. This whole Butler saga probably started when Pat Riley called him out(and if we’re being honest, this also may have started when Emo-Butler became a thing).
But heading into the season, even with extension discussion looming, I thought this was going to be at least a contract year for Butler and the biggest question was what’s going to happened in the off-season. I was certainly not worried about a mid-season trade that forced them into doing so.
That wasn’t even a mutual agreement from the start. The whole situation was made worse with the suspension and the jabs taken in post-game interviews. It was just a mess that I wasn’t expecting to happen at all.
And that did affect the whole season because the expectations, goals, things you need to consider, etc are different to what they are now. Butler wasn’t some low-tier star that you just looked to move on from to embrace a rebuild. It was a pivotal moment to end the Butler era, from a player that was top 15 calibre for most of the tenure and was one of the best players in the playoffs in that period, too.
When you did have Butler, you could have convinced yourself that no team wants to see them in a series because they will always have a puncher’s chance. That was always on the table for them, even if I didn’t think it was as likely or that they should’ve considered trading him in the off-season.
But the ceiling and the potential of that obviously changed once they moved on from him. That was embracing a new era. Whether they are in a similar spot or not(they were a play in team with or without him), there was always more to them if they had Butler. Now, they are just a team with two of the best players under 30 still looking to develop.
So, now, everything is looked through that lens. It is still about competing for them; they obviously never even want to consider tanking.
But even with that change in the thought process and what things could matter, this was still a disappointing season. As a fan, I am not against always looking to compete because, man, it would be rough to endure what teams like the Wizards or the Jazz do. That’s why I do honestly prefer the route the Heat usually take purely from an entertainment standpoint.
Considering that, it was still disappointing because they were a bad mid team. Since January 1st(the Pelicans game that Butler came back to before being suspended a game later), the Heat went 21-31 with a -0.6 net(18th), 113.3 ORTG(21st), 113.9 DRTG(12th).
Now, you can argue that this was worse than it probably would be in a full season next year without someone like Rozier in the rotation, not dealing with the Butler drama, etc. But that doesn’t change that this season was kind of a failure.
Whatever the valid reasons that could easily change or improve for next season, it doesn’t change that this year they were the 10th seed and also had a 10 game losing streak.
Yes, some of the decisions were bad in the moment and even worse looking in hindsight. So, again, it’s definitely not the end of the world by any means, but for what the Heat want to do and that is compete, they didn’t put themselves in any good situation.
As it’s been talked about plenty, this hasn’t been a great season for Spoelstra.
That has been a big, big conversation. The way Spoelstra has been seen this year has certainly been something. Some on my timeline suggested that he should be looked at when it comes to being on the hot seat. I find that just overreacting to it.
He, objectively, didn’t have a good season. I don’t think there’s an argument against that. There were a bunch of very questionable decisions with a bunch of rotations and starting lineups that made everything worse than it needed to be.
Take just the Rozier stuff alone. With Rozier, Herro, Adebayo on, they were -4.6 with a 109.8 ORTG. That went up to +4.5 with a 117.0 ORTG without him. Since January 1st, with all three on they were -14.5(!) with a 102.0 ORTG, but +6.1 with a 118.6 without him.
That can easily make a big difference in a season like this. They may not be a contender or a legit team to make noise in the playoffs, especially without a player like Butler, but there is an argument that without those bad minutes, they easily could’ve been better.
There was figuring out the frontcourt partner was an issue that also hurt the lineups. That’s another factor. The fourth quarter collapses. The minutes without both Herro and Adebayo. All of that plays into the total picture that this was a failed and disappointing season.
They made everything worse and harder for themselves for no reason — actually, at certain points, Spoelstra had to make these decisions deliberately just to feel something.
So, he did make a lot of mistakes, and this easily could’ve been a season, despite all the drama and all the mess around everything, much better. But that still didn’t warrant the reaction that many had.
Spoelstra is still a top coach in the league, and the Heat would be in a worse position without him. Any conversation around him being let go should just put to bed. Period.
It also wasn’t entirely bad.
This was the year that Herro finally made a significant jump in the right direction. Him making the necessary changes to his game has literally been a reason why the Heat are even that good in the first place.
Had this been a similar Herro from last year, where it’s the same kind of poor efficiency, below average rim finishing, and average(compared to the primary ball handler role) creator, this team would’ve likely been significantly worse. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were closer to a team like the Nets if we just put 2023 Herro instead.
This time last year, I mentioned that I had definitely seen improvements from Herro in many areas, but they never felt like improvements that changed anything. He, individually, got better, which didn’t result in much impact. That’s not the case this year. The improvement has changed a lot.
If you want to see more about Herro’s improvement, I went into more detail in the MIP conversation.
For one, this was the highest on/off split for the team on offense. The Heat were +8.1 points better with him on than off. The Heat with him also had a 116.0 ORTG, which would rank 13th. Compared to last year, the offense with him on would’ve been 21st. That alone made the season better.
I have been critical of him in the past, and after his sixth man of the year season, where he has led the team in usage and had the offense be centered around him, I haven’t seen much change in those two seasons. Those two seasons still had the same issues and the same limitations, even as he got more involved and more responsibilities. That is when I believed he would’ve been more suited to changing his entire game to be more off-ball, similar to Norman Powell or Klay Thompson.
We’ll be going through more on individual player’s seasons in a different piece, so I’ll just leave it at that this improvement was the biggest difference in the season this year.
Adebayo has also seen steps in the right direction. He is now a shooter, shooter. This was his first full season actually taking 3s and continuing the shooting spree that started towards end of last season. He not only built on that but made huge strides throughout the season in that area, both in raw percentages and how he looked.
For the season he averaged 35.7% on 4.1 3s per 100 possessions. That is solid. That is a good start, and it’s only getting better.
He hasn’t had the best year, overall though. There was still a lot of inconsistency with his offensive game and a lot of struggles, particularly early in the season. That also played a big part in the Heat underperforming because he was quite bad.
I talked about this in more detail where I went through all of that here talking more about his overall development and here focusing more on the film breakdown for this season.
We also had a significant trade, of course, that ended up bringing Wiggins, Mitchell, and Anderson. All pluses. Given the circumstances around Butler and when the deal was made, this was probably the best that they could’ve done, especially for what they wanted.
The contract of Wiggins makes this a bit annoying, but purely from the court POV and the fact that the Heat want to compete, all of the pieces make sense and have helped a lot.
Though, also with Wiggins, there was an issue of availability that again made things worse.
So many things have been going against the Heat.
But the brightest spot of it all was Mitchell. This was honestly the favourite pick up of it all. Like, he immediately became one of the most fun players on the Heat giving stuff on both ends of the floor and he actually helped a lot.
Again, we’ll be going through each player’s season thoughts in more detail in another day.
When it comes to everyone else, this is also where it becomes rather disappointing.
It’s annoying when health is an issue with players, especially young ones.
As mentioned earlier, this was a season to look out for Jovic’s improvement but that sadly didn’t go as far as he ended his season in February due to an injury. He was already showing a bunch of flashes and continuing to add to what he did last year. It’s just a shame that he got hurt because even from game 1 to game 42, he was showing improvement.
Jaquez, on the other hand, was one of the most disappointing players, and that also is just UGH. I was high on him, and I liked Jaquez's game a lot last year. It was frustrating to see the year that he had.
The rest of the guys, such as Burks, Robinson, Highsmith, and Anderson. Not much thought there. They all did their job. I’d rate them all solid for the season, just overall. There wasn’t much change one way or the other for any of them.
And we also have Ware… which also ties into a bigger picture here.
A quick touch on his rookie season. I loved it. I have a very lenient view on rookies and he did a great job. He started the season a bit later than most fans probably would’ve wanted, but in the end, he solidified himself as a key rotation player.
He showed so much on the offensive end(more than he did on defense). He was already looking to be impactful in a typical big man role, even as a rookie in this context of a team.
He deserves all the praise for his rookie season.
But the bigger thing was finally seeing a double big lineup. That was talked about a lot in the past. I wasn’t expecting, nor wanted to see that lineup fully from the start, because it didn’t make sense. But as the season went on, expectations changed, Adebayo grew better as a shooter, it was worth a shot.
It has now pushed the first domino. It is still a lot of work in progress. There’s also a reason why that duo also plays limited time and Adebayo still plays more minutes as the sole big than with him. But in a season like this, this was a needed step and it was worth it. You have already given yourself half a season's worth of film of trying it. You’re not starting from scratch anymore. That is the biggest positive.
What it leads to is still pretty unknown, and there’s not a lot to take away from when considering potential in the future, one way or the other, but it was still needed to see. There were more positives than negatives.
So, that is pretty much everything from the season as a whole.
Not the best season at all by any standard, or even considering their circumstances. It has been filled with a mix of really good stuff and really bad stuff. It has been made worse than it should’ve been, which makes everything worse.
I also believe that this season shouldn’t have gone the way it did from the start. Looking at where they ended up now, this should’ve been the approach and view of the team entering this season.
They played about too much with the Butler stuff that ended up biting them in the ass that could’ve been prevented and it could’ve made the season a lot better. They could’ve made decisions based on different factors that easily could’ve changed some things for the better.
But we still had Herro taking a big step forward. Adebayo is now a shooter. We’re seeing double-big lineups. Jovic was showing flashes. They are all positive stuff.
Moving on to…
Looking Ahead
Right now, they are waiting to play in their do-or-die game against the Hawks to either be eliminated or make the playoffs and have a series against the Cavaliers.
Now, I’m not going to rehash all of the stuff regarding should they have a lottery pick or not. I discussed that potential in more detail here, where I was more in favour of getting the lottery pick.
Whatever happens, I don’t think it changes much for their long term goals. Whether they get another draft pick to add to their core or they have a series against the Cavaliers and only use the Warriors pick, it’s all the same for the big picture.
This is another topic that I talked about where I also believe they are stuck in mediocrity. The feelings remain the same. I don’t envision much change regarding the two top players in Adebayo and Herro. They will be on the team. If anything, this season probably pushed them in that direction even more.
But what this season should’ve told them 100% is that this whole roster needs an overhaul. They need a change. Even if they want to remain competitive whilst having flexibility, I think moving on from a bunch of the veterans for players that could fit better on a slightly better timeline is the way to go.
Whatever happens in the playoffs or not, Wiggins, Duncan, Rozier, and Highsmith should be on the table looking for change. If they can get more assets or younger players that have higher upside, that should be the goal. If the aim is to keep working with Herro and Adebayo, and look for improvements around the edges and hope for a star, they need younger pieces and assets to flip that in the future.
But for now, the 2024-25 season is over, and hopefully things will be looking up one way or the other, even if it is looking to remain competitive. I don’t want to see 10 game losing streaks or being the 10th seed. If you’re looking to be competitive, at least be a top 6 seed.