Milwaukee Bucks 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
This was an unfortunate season for the Bucks. They made one of the biggest swing moves trading a key piece in Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard(that also in turn made their competition even better).
They did have the health of almost everyone but Khris Middleton. I was surprised to see so many players playing a lot of games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Lillard, they played in 63 games(!). They went 43-20 with a +5.0 net and a 119.8 offense. That’s a big sample.
The main thing that made this unfortunate and disappointing was how Middleton only played 55 games. It was them going 17-19 under Doc Rivers. It’s them dropping to 19th on defense — that’s concerning.
That’s all before we talk about the playoffs and where we’re yet to see the duo of Lillard and Giannis play in the playoffs together. It’s this that makes this whole thing annoying to assess. Their main swing move didn’t matter this year because Giannis wasn’t healthy in the playoffs.
Granted, they now are heading into their second season together with things already in mind with what works and what doesn’t. But it’s also important to see how that would look in the playoffs — that’s more important.
They showed a lot of reasons why they still are a legit contender and why this will work. On the other hand, they also showed why there should be some reservations, too. And without the playoff sample of how they look with Giannis, it makes it tougher to evaluate their season.
Do we look at the fact they were 43-20 and with all three guys playing? Do we see that even without Middleton for the most part, they were still dominant? Or that they dropped in defense significantly and it’s likely not going to get better? How about how they went 17-19 with Rivers?
Their off-season was essentially running it back but adding some minimums in Gary Trent Jr, Taurean Prince, Delon Wright, and a handful in the draft.
There weren’t many other possible moves to be made and it does make sense for them to still look at this core as one that can compete for a championship. They shook it up last year getting Lillard for this team. It wouldn’t make sense to not give them the chance to see how that team looks.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Bucks this year
Giannis being Giannis
Are we going to see Lillard bounce back?
Their core together is dominant
Will age catch up to them?
Can Lopez still carry defensively consistently?
How will their overall defense look? Do they have enough plus defenders?
Will Middleton stay healthy?
Should they explore a Lopez trade and go more into Giannis at the 5?
Is any potential young player breaking out?
What will Trent Jr bring?
Did you know that Giannis had a career year shooting from the floor? He shot 61.1% from the floor, including 64.5% from 2pt. He shot almost 6% better than last year from the floor.
He also had his highest impactful season since winning MVP in 2020.
He shot 78% at the rim with over 60% of his shots there. Let me repeat that in a different way. He shot almost 1.6 points per shot with over 60% of his shots there. There’s no one that can generate such immense rim pressure at will and score that efficiently.
We get to see more of that. It feels like some have brushed off what Giannis was doing this year — he finished fourth in the MVP doing all of that!
The team was +5.9 with him on, which isn’t that high for the team’s best player. But they were -4.3 without him. Their offense did fall off. They went from 122.0 to 112.2 without him. It was their defense that remained the same at 116.
He clearly mattered a lot offensively, especially this year with his absurd efficiency and rim pressure. But can he have that same level of impact on defense? Should there be a trade-off on offense for more defensively?
Here’s a very concerning stat. The Bucks were neutral with Giannis on and no Lopez. They did have a 121.1 offense! Yay. But they also had a 121.1 defense. Again, let me repeat. A team with Giannis on had the worst defense in the league — the Jazz were the worst at 120.5.
They allowed 24.1(27th) free throws per 100. The opponents grabbed 27.2%(14th) of their offensive rebounds. They forced the opponent to only 13.2(21st) turnovers per 100. They were bottom 10 in allowed rim FG%.
This will have to change and the best way to do that is by having Giannis have that DPOY level impact. I’m not sure how realistic that is given his age already and the responsibility on offense.
But this is the question about him being the only big on the court, which I can see being more of a thing in the playoffs. In the three playoff runs from 2021 to 2023, the Bucks with Giannis without Lopez were +14.3 with a 118.5 offense in 550 minutes. That dropped to +1.8 with a 107.3 offense in 788 minutes. That’s the big difference.
This is also putting a lot on Lopez. They had a 113.9 defense with him and 119.8 without him. I don’t feel confident relying on a 36-year-old 7fter to carry a team defensively.
That’s likely going to be their most important question. Because if they are exploring to move him, who would they get that could replicate something he does? There might be rim protectors that are around that level but they certainly won’t be the same kind of 3-point shooting threat as he is. Or vice versa, there might be some spacing for bigger players but won’t provide that same defensive impact.
With Lopez on, teams shot 63.9% at the rim and 44.6% within 4-14ft. That rose to 70.3% and 46.6% without him. Going up almost 7% at the rim is hilarious.
But look at Lopez individually with his rim protection. Here’s what opponents shot at the rim against him:
2024: 56%(8% worse than expected) on 8 shots at the rim
2023: 52%(13% worse) on 8 shots
2021: 51%(12%) on 7
2020: 46%(16%) on 6
He’s already seeing the decline himself, and that’s likely going to be worse. If the Bucks are that reliant on him playing well and he’s also declining, then that’s a huge worry.
Even outside of Lopez, does this team have defenders? There are too many players that can be picked on and are a liability. Some are too small. Some are old. Some are slow. There are many teams in the East that can pick on so many different matchups.
They did try to help that with Wright, but how much will that change? All of their main guys that will get minutes can be a liability or hunted in one or the other.
This is the biggest worry because I don’t know how they can realistically address it. Even in the best-case scenario where Lopez doesn’t decline and Giannis has one of the highest peaks on both ends of the floor in basketball history, there’s only so much those two can carry and cover up for everyone else.
But what if they make up for it on offense? There is a world where they’re good to be around average and cover up for some of the worst defenders.
That also would matter less if they can turn on a different gear on offense. They will never be one of the worst with both Giannis and Lopez on. They are still that good together to clean up a lot of the issues. Now, you combine that with an all-time great offense.
That’s where both Lillard and Middleton come in.
With all four of their best players on, in 677 minutes they were +16.8 with a 126.2 offense. They were unstoppable. Giannis himself averaged over 31 points per 75 on 66% eFG and 68% TS.
They may rely heavily on their top players being this dominant but it is possible.
We know what we’re going to get from Giannis and Lopez for that matter on the offensive end. Everything will depend on both Lillard and Middleton being the players that they are.
Lillard already saw some drop-offs, though it was likely not going to be what it was last year. This drop-off being this noticeable is the curse of having a career year.
He shot 57% from 2pt in 2023 but there was never a season that came close to that. He shot so above his usual career percentages that it was an outlier. What he did this year wasn’t that far off his regular All-NBA seasons, though there is still a considerable drop off in impact.
Here’s his offensive EPM:
This was the worst since his second season. It was obviously never going to be in the same realm as last year. That was highly unlikely. But it still wasn’t near enough what he was doing in previous seasons. That needs to bounce back.
His rim rate and efficiency are relatively the same, but there’s a drop-off everywhere else. He’s taking the most shots within 4-14ft, but is shooting only 37%.
His work in the PNR isn’t as deadly as in previous seasons:
0.99(49.8% eFG) → 1.13(56.7%) → 0.94(47.6%) → 1.07(53.8%) → 1.15(56.6%)
One interesting tidbit is for the first time since 2020, his 3pt rate dipped below 50%. I wonder what the reason for that is. Maybe it’s him shooting 35%, which is the third lowest of his career.
Another question mark has been their minutes without Giannis but with Lillard on. Lillard averages almost 30 points per 75 on 50% eFG and 58% TS with 35% usage in 822 minutes but the team’s offense is 113.8. He’s putting up efficient stats, but where is the offense?
That will have to be fixed because you can’t be falling off the cliff offensively like that. That was also the whole point of Lillard.
Maybe this is where Middleton steps in. In these two seasons, he hasn’t had a healthy season at all — he combined for 88 games. That’s a shame because what he gives them is needed. Even in his limited time this year, he had a career-high shooting from inside the arc at 56% — he shot 49% within 4-14ft and 59% from beyond 14ft inside the arc!
Although in small volume, he has been a very effective isolation scorer. He scored 1.13 points per isolation and shooting 52.2% from the field — though that hasn’t been that high throughout his career.
But the skillset is there and the fit works. There aren’t many overlapping skills between those three offensively. There is Giannis with ridiculous rim pressure that he can create in various ways. There’s the elite pick-and-roll threat that demands attention from beyond halfcourt. And to top it all off, you have a big wing that can play off-ball and still provide some efficient relief buckets.
We’ve already seen how dangerous and effective they can be in small bursts. If there’s a world where Lillard bounces back, that would raise everything about their offense. That’s what the goal of bringing him here was meant to do. It was to make the offense with Giannis the most unstoppable force in the world. It was to help with the drop off in the non-Giannis minutes.
Can they also get something from someone elsewhere? They have Bobby Portis, who has been third in the 6th Man of the Year voting two seasons in a row. He’s a reliable big off the bench that can space from 3pt. He scores efficiently inside. He’s been with the Bucks four seasons now and he’s been consistently one of their more important players off the bench. That will likely continue.
With the addition of Trent Jr, it does look like they’re prioritizing that offense. They did lose Malik Beasley and got another shooter to replace him. Trent Jr is a career 38% shooter on almost 11 3s per 100. But that’s what he is. He’s a shooter with not much value elsewhere. He’s not a passer. He doesn’t finish well inside the arc. He’s not entirely efficient. He’s also not a defender.
They also have eight players that are 25 or younger. How many of them can actually crack the rotation consistently? Can we see a potential breakout from AJ Green or MarJon Beauchamp? They have four rookies, too. A bunch of them are unknown, so it’s also seeing how much of some fresh, young blood can contribute.
Predictions
50-55 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 6th seed with their defense falling off
Ceiling(best case scenario): 1st seed with a historic offense
I think their season will entirely depend on how much of a defensive load can Lopez still carry to make them a good defense through 82 games.
They will be one of the best offensive teams. They will be as dominant as anyone when their top players are on the court. But they won’t be on the court for the full 48 minutes.
That’s where the worry comes in. Will they survive on defense without Lopez? Will they survive on offense without Giannis? It does feel like there’s absolutely no margin for error. Their season can go wrong instantly.
This is where I wonder if they do decide to shake it up somehow. That shake would most likely involve Lopez. Can they reshuffle some of the team somehow to give them more flexibility on the defensive end? Or are they going to risk it with Lopez?
When it comes to Lillard, there is a level of concern but I hope this off-season will get him in better shape, back on track, and in a different mindset heading into this season.
This team is one of the cases where if everything does fall right, they can easily win a championship. That is not unlikely. But just as easily, they can collapse.
Overall, this might be the season for them. This is an aging roster. They’re already witnessing the declines in health and ability. They’re still dominant and compete with anyone when fully healthy and the stars playing together. But that may not be sustainable through 82 games and the playoffs.