Minnesota Timberwolves 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
What a difference a year can make. In 2023, when the Minnesota Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert, a lot of the narratives were how it was one of the worst trades. They followed that with only winning 42 games and getting bounced in the first round.
They turned everything around this year. They did end up 3rd in the West, but this was decided right at the end of the regular season. They easily could’ve won the second-most games in the league.
Almost all of it came down to their league-best defense. They were dominant on that end. Since 2001, they had the 12th-best relative defense to league average at +6.24.
Combine that Karl Anthony Towns playing, Anthony Edwards playing better, a full season of Mike Conley, and plenty of improvements from the rest of the team, and they had the 16th-best offense.
Improving from a great defense to the best and going from bottom 10 offense to around average is an easy recipe to win a lot more games. They started to make the core work after a year of looking a bit off.
In the playoffs, they took care of business. It wasn’t even a series against the Phoenix Suns. They didn’t even give up a single game. That was rather surprising.
The series against the Denver Nuggets was a thriller. The way they came out and took a 2-0 lead but then just gave it right back. It was looking like they were about to hit a wall, as they also went down double digits on the road in Denver and they won. That was shocking. You really can’t predict these things.
They did go against a tougher matchup(despite the Nuggets having the best player in the world) where some of their flaws were emphasized. This conference finals did show that they have a bunch of questions left to be answered.
Regardless, they’ve shown that they are in that tier of contenders. Every contender has questions and it’s how they go about answering them that will matter now. This is still a better position to be in than not. They have proven that they can take out the best of the best. They can have dominant individual series. They can almost reach 60 wins in the season.
All of that still matters. And in the case of a team that is led by a collective effort but has a ceiling raiser in a younger player, that’s even better.
They do have roster construction questions related to their salaries, though. They are set to be very expensive.
In the off-season, it was as solid as it could be given their circumstances with contracts and other assets. They did end up losing Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, and a couple of picks, though, I don’t think that will matter as much in the grand scheme of things.
Skip to the end for the Randle and Towns discussion. This was written before the trade happened.
They did a good job adding players that could turn into something. The first one is replacing Anderson with another wing vet in Joe Ingles, who will immediately help with shooting and offense in general. There’s a lottery rookie in Rob Dillingham. This could be a swing move for them, especially considering the contract.
Key Questions and Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Wolves
Is this the year of Edwards’ leap?
Will they still have the best defense?
Should we expect some potential decline from Gobert?
Will they fix the non-Gobert minutes in the playoffs?
How will the Randle-Gobert pairing work?
What can Randle add that they didn’t have with Towns?
Can Dillingham have an impactful rookie season as a ball handler off the bench?
Potential jumps from McDaniels and Alexander-Walker
This will be Edwards after an Olympics run. You know how that can be when it comes to players taking leaps.
Now, I haven’t been entirely high on Edwards over the last two years. Some of the conversation around him is overrating him to me. I don’t think he’s been at an elite enough level offensively either as a scorer or a passer.
And that’s where their season lies. He has all of the tools to be even better. He has the potential. He already has a lot of the things that could make him a lethal scorer because of his downhill ability and athleticism.
But he still has yet to be at average efficiency levels in any of his regular seasons. He’s not an elite 2-point shooter. Has an inefficient shot diet. He only has a 27% rim frequency where he shoots 69%. The finishing is elite and improving, but the rate is dropping. He does go for a lot of pull up shooting both 2s and 3s. That’s why his eFG% has also been quite below average. Though his scoring helped with a career-high in free throw rate.
That hasn’t been an issue in the playoffs because of this:
A lot of the issues for him do come from settling too much for pull-up shooting and being quite poor at them(despite the gradual improvement over the years). That will obviously matter less, if he suddenly shoots 14% better in the playoffs on pull-up 2s, 5% better on pull-up 3s, and 20% better from beyond 14ft inside the arc.
It’s not complicated why he looks much better in the playoffs despite having the habits and the same shot profile.
Now, the sample size isn’t that big. The shot attempts aren’t the volume where it can also stabilize.
The question now is how much of that small sample shooting is here to stay. He has improved each year when it comes to his shooting, there’s no question about that, but are those improvements that drastic? On the one hand, there should be some positive feeling about it. He is actually a really good 3-point shooter off the catch: 33% → 41% → 42% → 41%.
But even beyond the actual shooting, the process of going for those shots is an issue in itself for me. That was also showing in the playoffs and the Olympics where the over-dribbling and very questionable decision-making on some of those shots stood out.
Here’s the percentage of his shots as pull-ups in his career:
2024 PO: 52.8% with 52.6% eFG
2024: 47.6% with 44.3%
2023 PO: 41.2% with 56.4%
2023: 41.3% with 44.8%
2022 PO: 43.6% with 54.2%
2022: 39.5% with 44.6%
2021: 32.6% with 41.4%
That is also related to his poor passing. Here are some stats, per BBall-Index compared to on-ball players:
This is what this season is all about. Even without considering the scoring jump, this can’t be how it is.
They are an elite team with where he is at now. But their ceiling and a lot of the questions offensively in the playoffs start with this. That’s the biggest question that changed everything for them.
Related to their offense and their guards, what do we make of Conley? He is going to be 37 years old and he’s still being used a lot, particularly on-ball. He’d be first in touches on the Wolves per 36 minutes with 82. He also has 4.9 times of poss, which is almost the same as Edwards. He’s still a key ball handler in their offense.
At some point, he will either have to have a reduced role or the effectiveness will drop.
One of the things we’ve already seen from him is the complete drop-off with rim pressure and foul drawing. He’s a 3pt shooter now. Over 60% of his shots are 3s(a career-high). He is such a pull-up threat. He shot 45.6% on almost 3 pull up 3s! Over 30% of his shots were at almost 1.37 points per shot.
But again, he’s going to be 37. Is it reasonable to expect this level of production from him at this point in his career?
The Wolves with Conley on were +5.6 in 2193 minutes with a 116.1 offense. But they were +7.7 without him in 1768 and their offense didn’t really drop off at 115.9. Even in a smaller sample, with the three top players but no Conley, they were +4.1 with a 123.7 offense in 209 minutes.
Maybe they will do just fine with potential declines for him. Though, with a diminished Conley, that would be full-time. All of this is a smaller sample.
This is also a question for Gobert. He is 32 years old. He is a big 7fter who has played consistently since 2015. He’s been a DPOY candidate each year. That does a take toll on you. There have already been signs of declines defensively. The level of dominance isn’t that dominant anymore. It’s still elite and probably at the top of the league, though.
But there’s also a difference between having a generational impact and an elite one. At that level, those little drop-offs are significant.
Because he’s still needed. He’s still a player that plays a huge part in their dominance, even as obviously a player that is a liability in the playoffs.
A completely irrelevant section with Towns being gone now. I am keeping all of the thoughts here, though. This still mattered to them and it will be a good reference in the future after we see what Randle plays like instead. But you can skip some of this and go straight to the bottom for the trade thoughts and how that fits into their season.
That brings us to the discussion around the bigs. The double big is vital to their success. On the other hand, they also do just as well as with one of them(actually not as well with Towns on his own).
That was shown even more in the playoffs. They couldn’t survive the non-Gobert minutes:
Gobert/Towns on: +9.4 in 324 minutes with 121.2 ORTG & 111.8 DRTG
Towns on, Gobert off: -13.5 in 197 minutes with 105.5 & 119.0
Gobert on, Towns off: +9.9 in 188 minutes with 122.0 & 112.1
They still have questions about how much they want to play two big lineups but then have an issue of how much can Towns survive without him.
And that leads us to Towns. What can we expect from him? He’s going to be 29 years old soon. Offensively, he has all of the skillsets of a modern big, and yet there’s still something that feels like it’s missing. He’s always in conversations when it comes to the top bigs but there’s something there that holds him back.
A lot of that is on the defensive end. There were times and even full series where he looked so good on both ends. But then you have a series like he did against the Mavericks and all of that gets erased.
The inconsistency in his level of play on either end is what annoys me. What’s the real Towns? Or is that the real Towns? At what point is he just what he is?
There were rumors about potentially moving on from him, which there is a case for but that’s really doubling down on that Gobert build. This might be one of the more important seasons of his career at this point. Is he a player that is worth that contract and continues to be on this team? Or is someone that you look to move to get over the hump, despite being such a talented player?
And there’s the rest of the team that is equally as important now. This team is also because of the collective effort. Their defense is strong from top to bottom.
I really liked what I saw from Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He became a key rotational player. He was 7th in minutes per game and 6th in the playoffs. He has developed into a solid shooter to 39% on over 8 3s per 100(that did drop to 29% in the playoffs). His secondary ball handling, shooting, and defense are still going to be key.
McDaniels is another player that proved to be very important, especially on the defensive end. He made the all-defensive team and was key in the matchup against Jamal Murray.
What has shown up more is the offense. He had four games with 20 points or more in the playoffs. Not only was the 3pt shooting better but he was putting the ball down and getting his points inside the arc, too. Over the last three seasons, he has been shooting over 58% from inside the arc on decent volume.
What is the potential with him offensively? Is he still someone that will just get points created for him or is there more to him? He is only 24 years old, he’s a big wing with length and has been efficient in so many areas on the floor.
That’s the same thing with Naz Reid. He’s the 6th man of the year! He’s a 6’9 big who shot 41% on over 10 3s per 100, though that is up from 34% in the previous four seasons. Was that a blip or a legit improvement? Is he going to fall back to mid 30s?
How much of an improvement can he make as a passer? He has a career 9.0% assist percentage but also 11.1% turnover. There are still a bunch of question marks offensively with him. There’s still the defense, too.
That will be one of the main questions for the Wolves. How much can these three players take a step in their development? They are still relatively young and either have the tools or have shown the potential to be so much more,
Another question relating to the young guys is Dillingham. This is a huge bonus to be a team that reached the conference finals and also added a top 8 pick. This could be a very good move if it pans out. Depending on what his floor is and how quickly he can reach that, it could help a lot with a potential Conley decline.
He’s not going to add what Conley does with his passing and IQ, but it’s another reliable shot-creator that they didn’t have. It all depends on how realistic it is that it’s going to be impactful right away.
Sigh. SIGHHHHH. I did all of this and the next day after writing it we got the Towns traded news. That came as a surprise. I did write above that there were rumors that this would be Town’s most important season because of it. I wasn’t expecting the move to be made right now. I was certain they were at least going to see what this could look like.
Side note, I’ll likely be going through the trade in more detail elsewhere breaking down the specifics. These are just general thoughts and some questions for the season. This isn’t diving deep into the trade
Nevertheless, Towns is gone. Let’s bring in Randle and DiVincenzo. I’m not sure how to feel about this. My initial thought when I tweeted was that I like this for both teams.
As mentioned, this was likely inevitable that they were going to have to move on from Towns at some point. They did fix some of the potential contract issues with getting Randle that leave.
But there is a fit concern. There was already a fit concern with the double bigs that had one of them be the best shooting big in the NBA. If that raised concerns, I’m sure getting one of the worst shooters will go easier. This is where I don’t get it. I also don’t get this when it comes to the fit with Edwards.
This does raise some big questions. It’s not impossible or deny the fit isn’t clunky or can cause some head-scratching moments. This is one of those cases that will likely need time to figure everything out.
On one hand, Randle has never played with a spacing big either, and yet it worked in New York. With both Randle and Hartenstein, the Knicks were +11 net with a 125 ORTG. It can work. But, Hartenstein is the better offensive big than Gobert.
Randle has also played with a ball-dominant guard in Brunson and things worked. Randle was All-NBA last year. In these two seasons, they were +2.7 in 3390 minutes with a 121.4 ORTG. Randle averaged 24.8 points per 75 on 53% eFG and 58% TS with 28% usage.
So, there is a way that it can work alongside Edwards. He also will have a very different point guard in Conley to make things work.
And the biggest part about this is what he could do to help Edwards ease some of that load. Last year, Randle had a +3.5 offensive EPM, which would rank 26th.
He isn’t some elite player in that role, but he is a good enough option to provide some floor-raising. Randle in these two years without Brunson averaged 29 points per 75 on 51% eFG and 57% TS with 33% usage. That’s enough to provide some additional scoring whenever Edwards sits.
There are encouraging points that could make this work.
They also got DiVincenzo. I love this pickup. This will provide a good off-ball player next to both Edwards and Conley. I will love this even more if we see more of a sample of him being that level of a shooter.
He was third in 3pt per 100 with over 15 and shot 40%. That’s insane. That is not only great but historic. This is exactly the kind of player that they needed to get. We saw with Walker that his shooting fell off, having DiVincenzo as the guy to fill that hole is perfect.
Overall, this trade probably factors in the long term. This a financial decision to also make life easier to build a team around Edwards in the future instead of being locked into big contracts for players that may not deserve it.
But for the short term and their chances now, this has a lot of work.
Predictions
55-60 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 6th seed
Ceiling(best case scenario): Top 3
This is what I wrote before the Towns trade:
This is very likely to be a much better season for the Wolves. Even with a potential drop-off from Conley or Gobert not having as dominant of a season, that can still easily end up being the number-one seed.
They will again have a top 3 defense. That alone should be enough to carry them through 82 games. Their offense shouldn’t be worse, it certainly shouldn’t be worse than what they did in 2023. There is little reason to believe they could be worse.
Even if an Edwards leap doesn’t happen, that still proved to be good enough for an average offense. And reasonable improvement is to be expected, not just from him either.
I’m not sure how likely that leap is, especially with it involving both his scoring ability and everything to do with his passing. In both areas, significant change still needs to happen. But at the same time, the difficulty of making some of it happen isn’t as high.
An underrated part of their season should be about everyone else. If Reid and McDaniels can improve their offense then that alone makes them so much deeper offensively. If Dillingham proves to have a high floor where he can contribute immediately as a ball handler and a secondary scorer, that adds to what they didn’t have.
With the playoffs, they already had their deep run being stopped because of their flaws being exploited. That’s always part of a team’s run. A team needs to experience those losses before getting over the hump. That is a crucial learning experience that may push teams and players to take the necessary steps to get better.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a season that they make the NBA finals.
Now, I’m going to lower some of the expectations. I don’t think finals or a top seed is in their hands. Having that potential continuity was going to help. Now, they’re back to square one where it’s figuring out everything on both ends of the floor.
A lot of it still remains the same. The Edwards’ leap, Gobert’s and Conley’s potential decline, the role players, and offensive question marks. That’s still there.
And you added Randle. This isn’t a role-player that you can plug in with ease. The work that it will require to get to wherever they need will take time and that will result in more losses.
I’ve touched only the offense when it comes to Randle. How much of this move affect the defense? Towns wasn’t a plus defender but he’s a different player to Randle. There’s now that question too.
That last paragraph with them already going through the playoffs and now they have the year to figure out their flaws. They don’t know what the flaws may be with Randle. This is also not adding a clear top 15 player either. Randle has his own share of big flaws, limitations, and baggage. He, as a player, isn’t a perfect fit by any means.
But there is still that unknown in the opposite direction. What if Randle plays at an All-NBA level again? What if he turns his game around in a different system under a new coach with a different top player and point guard?
Right now, this whole thing is a wait-and-see. That’s what their season is going to be. Figuring things out on the go and seeing how it works. But their chance at a finals appearance did drop.