NBA 2024-25 Award & Fun Predictions
So, it’s that time of the year when we’re only a couple of weeks from the NBA season starting and that always means one thing. Predictions.
This is always so fun to do because of the potential to look back on some of the wild takes that you made. It’s fun to see the thought process that came to that conclusion and figure out where it went wrong.
Here are my last year’s predictions! I got three right.
We’ll be going through the main award predictions, All-Stars, All-NBA, playoff predictions, and some fun ones.
Rookie of the Year:
Starting off with the rookies. This is always one that I struggle with the most, simply from not following college basketball as much. The things I know about rookies are mostly post-draft after doing some research on them.
The easiest bet feel like it’s going to be Reed Sheppard. He looks to be one of the players that would have the most impact early on. He was already having a huge impact in college.
He’s also going to Houston and that’s a perfect situation for a new rookie. It’s still a young enough team that doesn’t have the highest expectations so that it can prioritize the youth and their development. But at the same time, they have veterans and can be somewhat competitive. That’s a win-win for Sheppard. He also fits right in with what they’re looking to do.
One thing that might make me hold back on him winning is that others may have the stats that pop out more because of being in situations suited for that.
Other candidates that would be high up there are Matas Buzelis, Rob Dillingham, and Bub Carrington. But this is a race that anyone can jump into.
Most Improved Player:
The Most Improved Player award is such a weird one because there is no agreed definition of it. There are no criteria for what it means to be the most improved. Some will say that established stars shouldn’t win it. There’s also the argument that young-ish players shouldn’t win either, especially high lottery picks, because it’s expected that they’re going to improve.
Right now, just looking off the odds, Victor Wembanyama is the favourite. I don’t know how many people would think that it’s a good idea or what the award should be recognising. We know that Wembanyama is going to get better.
But at the same time, I always looked at this award as its simplest meaning. Who improved the most? And with just that question in mind, it usually would go to players that took a leap to an All-Star or All-NBA caliber. Making a jump from a high-end starter to the upper tier is a bigger gap than making a jump from a role player or end-of-bench player to a starter.
I have a handful of players that could fit either of those descriptions:
Victor Wembanyama
Alperen Sengun
Scottie Barnes
Franz Wagner
Evan Mobley
Austin Reaves
Jonathan Kuminga
Nikola Jovic
Payton Pritchard
Collin Sexton
RJ Barrett
Jordan Poole
Josh Giddey
Cam Thomas
Michael Porter Jr
Anfernee Simons
This is a big list and a lot of those players, if they’d win, would win for very different reasons. I tried to go a couple of different routes here based on the players that have been voted in the past.
There are the “already good young players looking to take that next step”. This could also be first-time All-Stars or All-NBA calibre — Wembanyama, Wagner, Mobley, Barnes, and Sengun. Some of them are already established young stars. This group is probably the most likely to win it based on what we’ve seen so far, especially with someone like Tyrese Maxey who won it. Four of those players are heading into their fourth season that have made jumps already. Wembanyama is a special case. He’s an anomaly that can jump to All-NBA in his second year.
Then it’s everyone else.
Kuminga is also going into his fourth season that was already looking to make that jump this year. Though, I feel like that would take him out already because he made that jump across the board. He makes sense if he looks to improve drastically again.
I’m putting Reaves and Sexton in a similar category. Reaves was already a starter at the end of the year, which again could rule him out already because he was already playing 34 minutes per game in his last 48 starts putting up 16/4/6. This would be another case where the jump would have to be significant. Sexton is in the same boat. He already took the jump as a starter, but maybe the jump is even bigger.
Both Pritchard and Jovic are ones that haven’t had the highest role yet and they can have the jump where it’s going from a bench player to a reliable, consistent rotation player. We saw that from Jovic already, but he might be a full time starter with a lot more minutes this year. With the way the Celtics are, Pritchard might see an increase in role and usage, as he had this year.
Finally, we have some players that have gone under the radar, had underwhelming starts, are on a new team or in a different situation, or can look to have a bounce back season.
I do like the Barrett and Simons pick. Barrett for being with the Raptors that are fully healthy where he was already looking much better. Simons has been decent and showed flashes of more, so can he do more now? He is 25 years old. That jump could happen.
Giddey and Thomas are going to be in different situations. Giddey is on a new team with different expectations that could see him have a lot more responsibility. Thomas is on a team that it’s likely looking like a one-man Thomas show. Porter Jr is a wild card if he comes in looking entirely different on top of what he already does.
But if I was to pick one, it’s going to be Wagner.
6th Man of the Year:
If there was an award that is the toughest to pick, it’s this one. Last year, I looked through the top three players in voting since 2020, and in each season, there was no one that came up twice.
There is no continuity for it. With that assumption, that means three players are likely already eliminated from it — Naz Reid, Malik Monk, and Bobby Portis.
My first thought is that one of the guards from the Chicago Bulls will be there. Either Josh Giddey or Ayo Dosunmu. Maybe even Lonzo Ball if he’s playing. Whoever is off the bench is going to be up there.
Another easy choice was Bogdan Bogdanovic. He’s been criminally underrated for the last few years. He was fifth already in the voting last year and sixth in 2022.
Someone from the Pelicans. They have CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, and Dejounte Murray. It’s likely going to be one of Murphy or Jones and either one of them should be in the top three.
Another case is the Mavericks. They also have plenty of players in contention. We know who’s going to be the four starters in Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington, and Dereck Lively. Then there is Spencer Dinwiddie, Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall. I like the Marshall pick for being the sixth man.
So, the likely top four are Dosunmu, Bogdanovic, Murphy, and Marshall. I’m picking Bogdanovic for it.
Defensive Player of the Year:
The top candidates for this are going to be fairly easy again to predict. There’s going to be Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, Victor Wembanyama, and Rudy Gobert. They are almost always going to be in the conversation. I do want to add Jaren Jackson Jr, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Draymond Green to it.
It’s these seven candidates that will be up there in the voting. Almost all of them have a legitimate case to win.
Last year, my pick was Davis after the kind of defense the Lakers had in the second half of the season. That was a bit of a disappointment, considering the defense that the Lakers had even with Davis on the floor.
For this year, I’m going back to Adebayo. This has to be his year at this point. What he’s shown this year where he was able to be just as impactful in a completely different role to what he’s done in the past should’ve have got him the award. The Heat’s defense is constantly near the top with Adebayo on, despite being undersized everywhere and having little help elsewhere, particularly on the perimeter.
I do have the three latter players mentioned as the dark horse. I don’t think we’re going to see a repeat of Gobert. Wembanyama will certainly have the hype(as he did this year), but he’s not the defender others are and the Spurs’ defense likely won’t be as elite.
The defense really slipped off for the Bucks whenever Brook Lopez went to the bench. I wonder if we see a more engaged Giannis to take care of that. With the Warriors, their defense was pretty good with Green on. If he stays on the court, he should still be in the mix.
Most Valuable Player:
The last six MVPs were dominated by three players: Giannis, Jokic, and Embiid. If it wasn’t for the injury, Jokic and Embiid would’ve been in the top two for three straight seasons.
We saw some emergence of Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Jayson Tatum, and Luka Doncic who should also be in the mix. I think this year will be the year where see a new MVP.
For Jokic to be in consideration again after winning three of the last four, it’s going to be very, very tough to convince everyone he deserves another back-to-back — LeBron James was the last player to do that. I mean, it could happen with the way everyone is counting out the Nuggets. If the Nuggets lock up the number one seed comfortably and Jokic does something that even by his standards looks ridiculous then, there will be an argument.
Embiid is likely going to be in the mix again if he plays the required games. This is the year that I could see another legitimate chance from him, especially with me being high on the 76ers.
I do like Giannis going back to winning it after a brief break where it now feels like he’s become underrated. If he has a similar season offensively and is able to carry the defense without Lopez, as the Bucks are a top-three team, that’s going to be one hell of a case too.
But, in the end, I’m going with Doncic. This is the year for him. Everything is looking his way. He already finished third this year where he did have a legitimate chance, but the only thing that hurt him was the team record.
That’s why it could be his year. The Mavericks have a good chance to be a top-three team in the West, and even the best team there. If he has that, something clearly worked better than any other season. There’s also the case for him simply being better. He’s going to be 26 and has already improved his game so much and has added counters to counters.
All-Stars & All-NBA
These predictions assume that everyone will play 65 games. This is going off who’s going to have the better season period.
East All-Stars:
Backcourt: Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell
Froncourt: Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Bam Adebayo, Jaylen Brown
Wildcard: Trae Young, Pascal Siakam
West All-Stars:
Backcourt: Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards
Frontcourt: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Lauri Markkanen
Wildcard: Zion Williamson, Ja Morant
All-NBA 1st: Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic
All-NBA 2nd: Tyrese Haliburton, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid
All-NBA 3rd: Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard
Playoffs:
And of course, unbiasedly, the Miami Heat are your champions in 7 games — we might be getting Celtics-Nuggets finals, with the Nuggets winning.
Because this is all fluid, here are some other likely(dark horse) conference finals:
Celtics in 6 vs 76ers
Celtics in 6 vs Knicks
Bucks in 7 vs Celtics
Nuggets in 6 vs Thunder
Mavericks in 7 vs Thunder
Fun Stuff:
Now, here are some random other fun predictions and takes
The Pistons will likely make the play-in
Bam Adebayo WILL make his first All-NBA & win DPOY(I was wrong on both last year)
Kings won’t make the play-in
Clippers will have a very disappointing season, likely finding themselves in the play-in
Wagner will be close to making the All-Star(could sneak in as a replacement)
Poole bounce-back season
The Knicks won’t be as good as many make them out to be. Wouldn’t be surprised if they’re around the 6th seed
Lillard bouncing back to near All-NBA level
Tobias Harris is going to have a great season in Detroit
The Pelicans will blow it up