NBA 2024-25 Season Award Part 2: MVP, DPOY, All-NBA, All-Defense
My picks for the Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year & all of the teams!
The season is over, and that always means one thing. It’s time for the end-of-season awards, and it’s here where I’ll fill in my imaginary ballot that doesn’t matter one bit, but it’s always fun to do.
Before diving into each candidate, I’ll briefly touch on what “my” criteria for that award is by looking at how I define the award, what I value more, what’s more important, what doesn’t matter, and just the general thought process in deciding the winner.
So, let’s go through the awards for the 2024-25 season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Ivica Zubac
With the DPOY, impact on the “team” defense matters and the impact has to lead to elite defense. This isn’t solely an individual award or who can be said as the “best defender”. This means that there are positions and roles that matter more than others. Bigs “are” favoured here because of how much they can affect the overall defense and change what opponent has to do, that’s not just simply 1v1 or through individual matchups.
This year, I also have some trouble picking the DPOY pool because the elite defenses are made up of players that all give you something. The Thunder and the Rockets are a good defensive team that are a result of a collective and a system. It’s then tough to pinpoint the individual defender, especially if they aren’t a big that has a big impact on the defense.
But overall, the defense has to be elite with said player on “and” that player should have “the” impact on that team being elite. That’s pretty much a requisite for me. Then, it’s seeing how the player affects the defense and how that has translated to impact, which, again, certain areas are valued more.
Ivica Zubac
Evan Mobley
Draymond Green
Honourable mentions: Jaren Jackson Jr, Dyson Daniels, Amen Thompson, Bam Adebayo, The Thunder
Before going into the winner, I want to mention the Thunder being my honourable mention. They are a historic defense. They have the ninth best defense relative to average. They have four(!) players with at least +2.0 D-EPM, and eight with +1.0.
They also have 15 being at least positive. They have six players with at least 2.0% steal rate. Everyone gets block with just as many having 2.0% block rate, too.
They have nine players defending at least three shots within 6ft. Only one allows over 61%, and it be better than expected. Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Jalen Williams allow sub 51% and all three have at least 11.0% worse than expected, with Holmgren leading the way with 45% and -18.4% worse.
Their whole team, top to bottom, is giving them a lot. They have the talent, size, and athleticism across the board that allows them to have this. That’s why this is also their DRTG without said player on, per Cleaning the Glass:
Holmgren: 107.5(95th percentile)
Hartenstein: 107.9(94th)
Jalen Williams: 107.0(96th)
Dort: 106.1(97th)
Caruso: 108.0(93rd)
Shai: 106.4(97th)
Wallace: 106.1(97th)
Holmgren/Hartenstein: 108.7(91st)
Caruso/Dort: 108.4(92nd)
Shai/Jalen: 104.0(98th)
Hartenstein/Caruso/Holmgren/Dort: 107.9(94th)
Shai/Jalen/Dort: 102.1(98th)
No matter who’s off, ALL of those lineups would have at least the 2nd-best defense in the league.
But I also wouldn’t say they have the DPOY player or even anyone that should be in the conversation because they are not led by one player. They are led by a collective unit in the perfect system. And with the way they have the defense set up, it makes it even tougher to pin point who has the highest impact. Even by all metrics, there are highly impactful defenders in different roles and positions putting up similar numbers.
Moving on to the actual winner. I’m going with Zubac. The Clippers with Zubac on have 108.4 DRTG, which would rank second in the league, per CTG. Take him off, and the Clippers drop all the way to 115.3, which would rank 18th.
The first check box is met. But let’s see how the Clippers have done this and how Zubac has impacted this.
The Clippers’ four factors with and without:
53.9% eFG(8th) vs 53.6%(7th)
16.0% TOV(4th) vs 13.6%(22nd)
23.9% ORB(1st) vs 27.7%(13th)
16.6(4th) vs 24.0(30th)
So, we can see that Zubac helps a lot in rebounding by going from around average to the best rebounding team. That certainly helps with the second chance points where the opponent only averages 11.8 points per 100 poss with him on and 13.3 without him.
The impact on the foul rate is also. He, himself, isn’t a guy that picks up fouls easily, thus allowing him to play more and doesn’t allow the opponent to get easy points at the line.
Here’s a wild stat. The opponent is in the penalty in 33.2% of their possessions if Zubac is off the floor. That drops to 17.0% with him. The Clippers give up almost ~6 points fewer at the line with Zubac on, per PBP Stats.
There’s also the rim protection. Here’s the opponents with Zubac on vs off:
Rim FGM per 100: 15.1 vs 17.4
Rim freq: 24.8% vs 28.8%
Rim FG% 69.2% vs 69.4%
Zubac, himself, is allowing only 54.9%(that’s 9.0% worse than expected) at the rim on 6.3 attempts.
Another interesting stat is even without both Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr, the Clippers are elite defensively with 107.8 DRTG, 52.7% eFG, 13.5% TOV, 23.9% ORB, and 12.2% free throw rate. You can see that guards and wings are probably more responsible for the turnovers, but everything else that makes the defense elite like the rebounding and free throws, comes down to Zubac.
With the defense being so elite and a lot of it pointing to Zubac being the piece, that is easily my pick for this year.
There are also both Green and Mobley.
The Warriors with Green have a 110.5 DRTG and are elite in causing turnovers with 16.7%. Take him off, and that drops to 113.6, with everything else being around average. The Cavaliers with Mobley have a 111.0 DRTG and aren’t great in any particular area, but when you take him off, they drop to 115.1 and drop significantly in their rebounding.
Green is loved by all defensive impact metrics, being 2nd in DARKO, 5th in LEBRON, and 10th in EPM. Mobley, on the other hand, is 91st in DARKO, 20th in LEBRON, and 12th in EPM.
But comparing everyone in their interior defense, I don’t see that being as impactful as what Zubac has done:
I also want to touch on Thompson and Daniels, who have both been arguably the best perimeter players and deserve all the credit for such elite defensive seasons. But I still believe it is hard to have such an elite impact on defense that translates to elite defense as a perimeter defender.
Daniels has been historic in the way he creates chaos on-ball, and that in itself can be and is very valuable. But the Hawks with Daniels on have a 115.5 DRTG, which would be around average, and have a 16.1 TOV%. That drops to 116.6 and 14.4% without him.
I can’t find myself putting players that clearly have a much bigger impact. And yes, that is favouring Zubac or Mobley or Green, but not everything on defense has the same value. Call it unfair, but unless the award is changed, I don’t see a reason those players should be ahead of bigs.
Most Valuable Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
With the MVP, everything matters to me in terms of impact on winning. This isn’t a conversation on who’s the best player in the world. This isn’t picking who’s more likely to lead a team to a championship or who’s easier to build around. That matters zero. Past seasons also matter zero. Each season is evaluated on it’s own with nothing else coming into consideration like voters fatigue or past playoff performances.
The broad goal is to see who’s most impactful. That’s how I define most valuable. How much do you make the team better? That’s also not just looking at on/off. It’s also not looking to punish players on bad teams, nor punish players that have elite teammates.
“Everything” is on the table here to determine that. It’s a mix of production, impact metrics, how they go about effecting the game(different ways have different levels of impact), eye test, lineup data, and availability(the aggregate impact as a whole is emphasised).
There’s also varying degrees of impact and how dominant you make a team. Impacting the team that makes the team go from good to great, is great. But that’s not the same as making a team historic or dominant.
Although this is an individual award, team results also matter. How you use that individual talent to impact the team and how much further you can make them better is what’s important here. But this is also looking mostly with the player on the court and what their role is meant to be. I’m not punishing players that have the worst bench or are clearly doing “their” job but are hurt by the team elsewhere. With that said, if they are also part of the issue why the team is being hurt, despite doing the rest of their role, that is also considered.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander
Nikola Jokic
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jayson Tatum
Donovan Mitchell
Having laid out the brief criteria, this has been a two-man race basically from the start. This has been, genuinely, the closest race that I can remember in recent years.
It’s hilarious that both players are having the kind of season that if you put one of them in any of the previous seasons, they probably would’ve been winning by a good margin.
If you’re a Jokic fan, it’s a damn shame that Shai is just having a historic season. And if you’re a Shai fan, it’s damn shame that Jokic is also having a historic season. At this point, you’re just arguing which historic season is more appealing.
Starting off with some of the metrics, everything is almost neck and neck. Here’s a comparison in some stats and metrics:
And here are other offensive stats:
Side note: stats are NBA RAPM by DataBallr. Creation is ISO/PNR/Post. Shooting is spot up/handoff/offscreen
This doesn’t really tell us anything outside of both are just incredible talents that have as good of a case as the other — a lot of the stats will say that.
Both are also leading their teams to elite offenses. With Shai on, the Thunder have a 123.9 ORTG, 57.1% eFG, and 10.9 TOV%. Without Shai, that drops to 114.8. With Jokic on, the Nuggets have a 128.3 ORTG and have elite numbers across the board. That also has one insane drop to 106.0 without him, and every other stat dropping off the cliff.
I don’t think there’s much case that Jokic has helped the Nuggets a lot more offensively than Shai has done. I also don’t think he’s been better than him on offense either. Those are all valid reasons for Jokic to win the MVP. Both are the engines doing a lot of the work on offense, and Jokic does more and does it more efficiently and he does things in ways that have a much higher impact.
Combine that with the fact that he averaged a triple-double and how much he has also played, and that is again a huge case for him.
And any other season, a whole bunch of reasons would’ve probably already sealed the deal. In any other season, he might have walked away with a unanimous decision. But this also isn’t an ordinary season, and the competition is so tough with Shai, that there are something that hurts Jokic that it matters more when the margins are so small.
Some of those differences are on the defensive end and how that has contributed to the total impact.
This has been, to me, his worst defensive season in a long while. The Nuggets for just the second time in his career, are better on defense without him. The Nuggets with him on the floor have a 116.8 DRTG, which would rank 23rd overall — in the same range as the Sacramento Kings, Brooklyn Nets, and Charlotte Hornets, or worse than the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, or the Indiana Pacers.
I have watched plenty of Nuggets games, and his effort on defense a lot of the time was a joke. The recent Pacers game had a dozen defensive breakdowns that started and ended with Jokic not doing his job. There were multiple games where I believed he hurt the team a lot on defense, more than what he did on the offensive end.
That is an issue, and that is part of the reason why I do lean towards Shai. In any other season, I probably don’t bat an eye because the impact on offense outweighs what most players do on both ends.
Shai has been elite offensively and has been one of the better defenders this year. This isn’t just focusing on the Thunder’s overall defense, because he is a perimeter player who doesn’t have the same kind of impact as a big. But I’d still argue that he has been a huge positive for the Thunder individually. He has played a role in the historic defense that the Thunder have. So, not only is he not a liability or even average, he is actively helping the Thunder on defense.
Amongst wing and guard defensive roles, he has, per BBall-Index:
A- in pickpocket rating
A- in steals per 75
B in passing lane defense
C in perimeter isolation defense
B in rim protection
B- in rim points saved per 75
B in rim deterrence
B in stable rim dFG% vs expected
B in defensive FG% at rim
C in help defense talent
B- in rebounding talent
That matters because it is on top of what he’s doing on the offensive end. That simply adds more impact that a player can have. He may not be a game changer on defense that puts him in a DPOY conversation. He may also not be an elite, elite perimeter either. But no one else is as good a defender, giving whatever impact he does, but being as elite on offense(maybe only Giannis).
That’s why the Thunder also have a +16.0 net with him on the court(compared to +11.5 with Jokic). That’s why the Thunder also have won 18 more games and have almost reached 70. That matters to me.
I know the argument is going to be teammates and the fact that the Thunder are still +8.3 without Shai. But I’m not punishing players for having good teammates. He is still a big reason why they are a historic team.
You can see that in any number of lineup combinations that it’s Shai that drives a team that could be good without him(because of their defensive system that we talked about earlier), but it’s him that carries the offense and everything else to absurd levels.
Here are some lineup data with Shai on minus his teammates
Shai on, Jalen off: +21.2 with 128.1 ORTG in 1134 minutes
Shai on, Hartenstein off: +17.0 with 125.5 in 1484
Shai on, Chet off: +17.6 with 124.3 in 1972
Shai on, Chet/Jalen off: +24.9 with 129.7 in 905
Shai on, Chet/Hartenstein off: +18.9 with 126.7 in 1112
Shai on, Chet/Hartenstein/Jalen off: +26.7 with 131.4 in 678
Shai on, Chet/Hartenstein/Jalen/Dort off: +24.7 with 130.4 in 348
Shai on, Hartenstein/Jalen/Dort/Caruso off: +21.0 with 131.4 in 160
That is absurd what he’s doing without his best teammates, and the sample is considerable. He dominates as the only starter.
Now, I don’t know how you want to interpret this, but this is everyone’s usage rate with and without Shai:
Everyone has their usage drop, and some decline considerably when they play with Shai. That to me points to Shai being the guy when it comes to the offense that turns the team into the biggest juggernaut out there. The defense is elite with or without him. That is where the good teammates help a lot with the team being good. It’s the offense that transforms this team, and he’s doing it all.
And as much as people would also point to Jokic’s historic feat in averaging a triple-double, the Thunder having the highest point differential, best net rating, and most wins by double digits is a feat in itself
I don’t think there’s a wrong answer with any of this. Both genuinely have seasons that would easily be number one. What Jokic is doing now is arguably one of the best MVP-level seasons… but so is Shai.
When bringing other historical feats, comparisons, and putting things in perspective, both have all of that. This is a narrative award, and that can shift some things one way or the other. Jokic is the only player ever to be top 10 in all of the main categories. What Shai is doing as a guard with his efficiency is one of the best ever.
And when the race is that close, when looked at individually, the margins are seriously too thi,n where everything is more of a factor, and everything is also under a magnifying glass that may not matter as much in other years.
I wouldn’t be surprised by whoever wins, and I also wouldn’t be mad for whatever decision is made, but I’m going with Shai.
The rest of the field… There isn’t much to consider. This really was a two-man race and it’s not close to anyone else beyond that.
All-NBA:
1st team:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Stephen Curry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jayson Tatum
Nikola Jokic
I don’t think there’s much to discuss here. Both Jokic and Shai take the two spots without a question.
Giannis is a lock for the first team as well. He had another season averaging over 30 points per game and shooting over 60% from the floor. He took and made a league high from 2pt, as well as shooting 62.0%. He is by far the best finisher this league has seen in a while(probably ever). He is first in points added on finishing at 150.3, which is double what LeBron James does — that gap is the same as LeBron and an average player.
He also added this year a really good mid-range game, he has added 16.3 points on long 2s. He has taken 19% of his shots from 14ft-3pt and is shooting 45.2%. This kind of makes the efficiency on 2s funny, considering he takes over 5 2s from 14ft out per 100. But that doesn’t matter when he shoots 75% at the rim on nearly 16 attempts. Insane.
One thing that I liked the most is the passing from him. He has had a career high in AST%, and that has shown up a lot on film with the kind of reads that he has been making.
Tatum is just now doing his job as he’s always done. It kind of sucks for him that he just normalised high level of standard with this level of consistency. His offensive impact has been the lowest since 2021, per EPM, but with the defense and also playing a huge amount, he makes up for all of that. It’s the two-way consistency that gives so much value. Similarly to Giannis, he’s also by far having a career high in AST% with 26.6, up from 21.1.
Curry is Curry. He may not be peak Curry, so when he’s compared to himself, he has declined considerably. And if he’s looked at through that lens, it may be easy to write him off. But by league standards, compared to everyone else, he’s still having an absurd season. He still easily ranked third in offensive EPM. He still shot the hell out of the ball. The Warriors were still +5.8 with him on and had a 120.1 ORTG — that dropped by 13.1 without him. He is still a whole offense by himself.
2nd team:
Anthony Edwards
Tyrese Haliburton
Donovan Mitchell
Jalen Brunson
Evan Mobley
Edwards somehow turned himself into basically Curry off the dribble and I don’t know if that’s talked about a lot. With so many spacing and offensive issues with the Wolves, he took it upon himself to score the ball any other way possible. So, he just flipped the switch and led the league in 3pt made by shooting 39.5% on 13.9 3s per 100. He has a 50.5% 3pt rate(lol). That was good enough to bump his efficiency to 59.5%(a career high).
Since 2014, he is taking the seventh most pull up 3s per 75 at 7.7. Out of 20 seasons with at least 7 attempts, he’s 4th in percentage at 38.5%.
But outside of the shooting, I don’t know how impressed I am by his season. He’s had a drop off in his assists, his 2pt scoring, his finishing, and his mid-range. All have declined one way or another. He has been on-ball the most in his career, but outside of scoring more, that hasn’t translated to any more creation for others.
Haliburton didn’t have the perfect start, but man, did he finish strong, and so did the team with him.
In the first 34 games, he averaged 17.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 8.6 assists, shooting 55.7% from 2pt and 34.5% from 3pt with 57.3% TS. The team went 16-18.
But once the calendar year flipped, the efficiency went through the roof. He only went up to average 19.5 points and 9.7 assists, but he shot 60.0% from 2pt and 43.1% from 3pt(including over 42% on 5 pull up 3s with over 40% of his shot diet being that) with 65.4% TS. The team also went 30-9 and were +8 net with him on and had the offense drop by ~10pts without him.
The way he finished out the season and how much that pushed the Pacers easily has him on this team. The Pacers were 16-18 before 2025, which had them eighth in the East.
Brunson almost didn’t make the cut, but he did make the 65-game in the end, and glad he did. He continues to be highly efficient, still hitting over 38% from 3pt and improving his 2pt% to 53.9, he upped his assists, and all impact metrics have him as one of the best in the league this year. His self-creation has been the best it’s been a while, having a 58.2% TS on over 18 TSA. He is just a deadly scorer, with almost 60% TS on both 2pt and 3pt shots.
Mitchell is the best player on a team that was also going on a historic run. That should be rewarded, especially when you are, by all metrics, leading the team in impact. But at the same time, I do find myself looking at the Cavaliers as just a very, very good team on both ends of the floor, and everyone does well in their role. You can probably make a case that Garland has been just as important to their success on the offensive end. Still, it would feel strange not to have the guy that’s seventh in EPM, seventh in DARKO, and ninth in LEBRON.
Joining Mitchell from the Cavaliers is Mobley, who has also been a huge reason for the Cavaliers’ success. As usual, he’s a candidate for the DPOY. A key stat that stood out was the opponent shooting almost 9% worse than expected at the rim against him, where he defends over 7 shots.
On offense, he has seen a drastic improvement in his shooting playtypes, where he averages over 5 TSA off spots ups, handoffs, or off screen, and is shooting a career high 53% TS. He’s also been finishing in transition, as a roll man and putbacks at a career level. He jumped from 1.01 points per as a roll man to 1.17!
3rd team:
Karl Anthony Towns
Ivica Zubac
Cade Cunningham
Jaren Jackson Jr
LeBron James
Zubac and Jackson Jr make the team based a lot off their defensive value. But with also their high impact on the offensive end in their rightful role, they easily have been one of the more impactful players. As mentioned in Zubac’s case for MIP, that two-way value helps a lot.
I talked a lot about Zubac’s impact and why he most likely deserves the All-NBA nod in both the MIP conversation and the DPOY case.
Jackson Jr is in the same boat. Primarily giving you impact on defense, who’s also been a candidate for the DPOY. He contests everything at the rim, opponent is shooting almost 14$ worse than expected. Opponents are also shooting 6.5% worse at the rim with him on than off and have a lower frequency of around 2.2%.
I’m not that high on Cunningham individually, but he has been so important for the Pistons team that won 30 more games than last year! I wouldn’t say he has improved or taken a step that significant, but being the main guy on a team that is a top-six team and playing a big role for them on the offensive side warrants this.
He has still been tasked with a lot of responsibilities on offense, and that’s not easy to continue to be as effective. There hasn’t been any drop off, and even if there haven’t also been significant jumps in any of the stats or metrics, maintaining that whilst being the engine of the team and finally leading the team into above average offense is still a good thing. I don’t think anyone expected the Pistons to be this good.
I feel like Towns had an underrated season, particularly on the offensive end. He has been vital for them on the offensive end, and he has done his thing. He gave you all of the production as a scorer and did so efficiently. He helped the offense be this elite with the spacing, his passing, and I really liked his drives whenever he’s been aggressive this year. There was this one Magic game where it felt like he took over — I also saw him cook for 44 points against the Heat. But I have been quite disappointed by his defense a lot.
I don’t know how LeBron keeps on doing this, but he still finds himself on the third, though, I do feel like if some players did hit the 65 game mark, he probably wouldn’t have made it. I hate to say it, but this kind of feels like the default option at this point. He still put up the usual stats. 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. That never changes. He shot 57.4% from 2pt and 37.6 from 3pt.
He also has the similar unfortunate case of being compared to himself as did Curry. Compared to himself, he is having one of the worst seasons(obviously, he’s freaking 40 years old). But compared to the league, he’s still up there. Just as efficient as any other All-NBA candidate. Is on track with all other impact metrics that paint him as All-NBA calibre.
He is still a freight train when it comes to getting to the rim and finishing. He has shot at least 73% at the rim in every year since 2021. But he also has been getting to the rim less and it’s the lowest in his career with just under 8 rim shots per 100. That has coincided with career high in the short mid-range volume, where he’s also easily shooting the best in that area in recent years at 46.1%. And as a passer, he is still as deadly as ever — still averaging over 20 potential assists, over 5 rim assists, and generates over 27 assist points.
All impact metrics paint him ~15 on offense, but it’s the defense that has fallen off the most, and that hurts him in this case.
All-Defensive
1st team:
Dyson Daniels
Draymond Green
Ivica Zubac
Amen Thompson
Evan Mobley
All of the DPOY candidates and honourable mentions land here. I don’t think there’s much discussion around the 1st team for the most part. I still want to reward the perimeter players here and I think the defensive teams can consider more of an individual impact, rather than the same criteria for DPOY — there can be some leeway for the sake of it.
With that in mind, you have three of the top big defenders that had the highest impact and arguably two of the best perimeter players in both Daniels and Thompson. Those two have been the best ones for me, both doing it in different ways.
2nd team
Lu Dort
Rudy Gobert
Jalen Williams
Jaren Jackson Jr
Bam Adebayo
Staying on that point with rewarding different kind of impact, the Thunder has to have someone on the teams and honestly, multiple people. Both Dort and Williams have been huge in various roles. Everyone does a bit of everything.
Per BBall-Index, Dort ranks 3rd in matchup difficulty, 2nd in guarded O-LEBRON, 5th in ball screen navigation, 1st in perimeter isolation defense, and 23rd in off-ball chaser defense. He’s doing the absolute everything as the point of attack defender and stopping the worst matchups.
Williams, on the other hand, has been in the helper role and has been key when both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren were out. He was their rim protector and did a tremendous job. Out of 80 players in a helper role, he ranks 7th in help effectiveness rating, 7th in rim protection, 9th in rim points saved per 75, 4th in dFG% vs expected, and 2nd in defensive FG% at the rim.
I feel like with both Gobert and Adebayo, they have just made stuff look too easy and something that is expected. I think they did as good of a job on defense as they have done in each of their previous seasons that had them locks for All-Defensive teams.
The Wolves with Gobert on had a 109.7 DRTG and 114.6 when he sat. That’s not normal.
Adebayo is in a similar case where the Heat’s defense is elite when he’s on the court, with 112.8. This was also a season where we’ve seen him be effective in different roles, which maximizes the impact you can have by affecting the game in different ways with different lineups. He can still be the main big defender in all of the actions when he plays without Kel’el Ware, or he can be in the off-ball role with Ware on. The seamless interchangeability is what pushes Adebayo for me. And in a more individual role that isn’t doing the big man duties, he has been one of the best isolation defenders in the league.
Amongst mobile bigs, Adebayo ranks 1st in matchup difficulty, 7th in ball screen navigation, 1st in perimeter isolation defense, 1st in off-ball chaser defense, and 4th in deflections. There’s not a single big that can do his job as a perimeter defender. He may not be as impactful or have the volume that affects the interior defense, but his calling is versatility.
And that is all for the 2024-25 season awards. I appreciate if you got to the end and read the two part-er.