NBA 2024-25 Season West Tier Rankings
So, it’s that time of the year where we’re only a couple of weeks from the NBA season starting and that always means one thing. Predictions.
This is always so fun to do because of the potential to look back on some of the wild takes that you made. It’s fun to see the thought process that came to that conclusion and figure out where it went wrong.
Here were my West predictions last year!
My rankings include the standing rankings and the overall(championship) rankings.
The standing rankings aren’t there to decide who’s the better team. It also doesn’t consider their playoff chances either. Picking a team to finish ahead in the standings doesn’t mean I’d have them over in a playoff series. The regular season is a grind. There are so many things that can go wrong. Health, depth, age, goals, and how likely they are to prioritize going all out are considered. Older teams and ones that have playoff aspirations may rank lower than a young team looking to take a jump.
Whereas the overall rankings is looking at through the lens of competing for a championship(or winning the lottery) in 2025. How likely is it that this team can end up winning a ring this year?
There are five tiers: clear cut favourites, top tier contenders, deep run if things fall right, 1st round or 2 if we’re lucky, and what’s a championship?
Standing Rankings:
Oklahoma City Thunder: 1-3 range
Denver Nuggets: 1-3 range
Dallas Mavericks: 1-3 range
Memphis Grizzlies: 4-6
Minnesota Timberwolves: 4-6
Phoenix Suns: 5-8
Golden State Warriors: 6-10
Los Angeles Lakers: 6-10
New Orleans Pelicans: 7-11
Los Angeles Clippers: 7-11
Sacramento Kings: 9-11
Houston Rockets: 11-13
San Antonio Spurs: 11-13
Utah Jazz: 14-15
Portland Trail Blazers: 14-15
The three teams at the top have separated themselves. Both the Thunder and the Nuggets were already six games ahead of fourth place last year, and I don’t see either them dropping or someone narrowing that gap.
The Thunder have as good of a chance at having the best record in the league as the Celtics. They have everything you need to have success in the regular season. They have the top-end talent that plays plenty of games. They have depth. They are well-balanced on both ends of the floor. The only thing that can stand in the way is a catastrophic injury to multiple key players.
The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic. That alone is a good reason for me to have them at the top of the West. Since his rookie season, there has not been a single year where with him on, the team doesn’t play at a 50-win team at least:
2024: +12.6 with Jokic on / 67 win pace team
2023: +13.2 / 68 win
2022: +9.0 / 62 win
2021: +7.2 / 58 win
2020: +5.4 / 54 win
2019: +6.1 / 56 win
2018: +7.2 / 58 win
2017: +7.3 / 58 win
The lowest was a 54-win team. The team was at a 60+ win pace with Will Barton and Monte Morris. I think they’ll do fine again.
I’m now adding the Mavericks to the mix. They won 50 games already and they should be a lot better. The trade that they made for Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington made them a much better defense, to the point they were top seven post-deadline. Their off-season was just as good addressing plenty of their weaknesses. They’re easily my third-best team in the West.
The next tier of teams through the regular season are the Grizzlies and the Wolves.
The Wolves already made that jump last year, especially with the league’s best defense. They had improvements on the offensive end to be good enough to win 56 games. But they shook things up in the off-season. Trading Karl Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo is going to change a lot for them. That’s where I expect some kind of drop-off from last year. They will have a lot more questions to figure out before anything can start to click.
I may be too optimistic about the Grizzlies making a seamless jump, but they were a 50+ win team in two previous seasons. This wasn’t just a young team now looking to bounce back. This was a really good team that is now getting their best player back and should be better elsewhere. The loss of Steven Adams and having Zach Edey be the replacement will be the biggest question for them but they should still be comfortably a playoff team.
The next group of teams is where things will get interesting. The sixth seed to 10th seed were only separated by three games. That’s likely going to happen again. The Suns, Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, Pelicans, and the Kings will all be in the mix. One of them will miss the play-in entirely.
I have no idea how to go about ranking a lot of those teams. I would put Suns comfortably ahead of all of those teams. They are the best of the bunch, but not enough to give themselves separation either, though they do have the edge.
Next will be the Warriors and Lakers, mainly giving them the edge by having the best top end talent.
I’m a believer in the Warriors, especially if Draymond Green is playing. They were winning a lot more with him. Their defense relied entirely on him. They were still pretty good offensively, so if they can stay healthy, they have a solid chance to get that sixth spot.
With the Lakers, it’s banking on LeBron James and honestly, JJ Redick. They had one of the best health with their top players and their defense still was subpar and were a play-in team. Their lack of significant moves in the off-season makes me think this is going to happen all over again.
Pelicans, Clippers, and Kings. This will be a tight race for the final spots in the play-in. For two of those teams, health will be the deciding factor. Both the Clippers and the Pelicans have some questionable health concerns that will likely decide their entire season again. With the Kings, I do think they’re better than they were, but who are they overtaking?
This whole play-in race will likely get locked in at the end of the season.
At the bottom, we have the lottery teams — Rockets, Jazz, Blazers and Spurs. I don’t see any of them having a chance to get into the play-in outside of the Rockets. Neither have the right team to even look to accumulate wins, nor have the incentive to do so. The Rockets might be the wild card here where they should be close enough to be in the race for the play-in because they did get better, but not enough to reach the other teams.
Overall Rankings
Clear Cut Favourites: Nuggets, Mavericks
These teams are the elite of the elite. They are mostly proven championship calibre teams and have made or have a legitimate case that they separated themselves. They have the top-end talent, they fit well, they have the elite role players, they have answered questions and have the fewest left to answer, and have the biggest margin of error.
I can already know what the biggest reaction to this and it’s probably that the Thunder aren’t here and we’ll get to that later. But for now, the two teams in the clear favourites are the Nuggets and the Mavericks.
The Nuggets should be pretty explanatory. I know they didn’t make the finals or let alone the conference finals, but they will still be the team to beat again. Just because a team doesn’t repeat or even make the finals, that doesn’t automatically mean that they shouldn’t be the favorite to me.
Each season is its own story and it’s evaluated that way. For the most part, past results don’t matter as much when it comes to established contenders(and in this case champions with this core) that are pretty much bringing back the same team.
The Nuggets losing to the Wolves doesn’t change the fact that they still have the best player in the world surrounded by a team that played a huge role in their championship. Yes, they lost two consecutive key players, Bruce Brown and now Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. But their ceiling wasn’t dependent on those two players. They aren’t irreplaceable or needle movers to that extent. Christian Braun is looking like a solid replacement there, particularly on the defensive end. There are other young players that could take that jump to be a rotational player.
But most importantly, they still have Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Aaron Gordon. In the last two years, with those four on they were +14.6 net in 1865 minutes with a 128.3 offensive rating — in the playoffs, it’s +3.7 in 725 minutes with a 118.7 offense. If you take Pope out, they were +23.5 with a 130.2 offense but that was only 201 minutes.
This is also a team that should have the fire in them this year. That’s one of the main reasons why I’d have them first in being the favorites to win period. A defending champion to lose in the second round in game seven on their home floor after leading in double digits? That can spark something.
Even without that considered, this is a team that still has the fewest questions mainly because their margin of error is a lot bigger with the top-end talent that they have — talent that could also still get better.
I initially had the Mavericks in the lower tier because of that last point about needing to go and prove it, but I think they have at this point. Even this season, I believed they could’ve easily won against any non-Celtics opponent. And that was the case before they got better in the off-season and still getting better with the core that they had.
A Luka Doncic-led team has now had a deep run twice with two very different teammates. They made the finals after looking like they clearly belonged their through the West. This was a very good, balanced team that will only get better.
After the trade deadline, they were top seven on both ends of the floor. They are led by a player that is a top-5 caliber. They have surrounded the superstar with a highly effective, proven second option in Kyrie Irving. There’s also length, size, shooting, defense, and ball handling elsewhere. There are even more proven champions that can add to that leadership. They have all of the things that they need to get to where they were and over the hump. This is another case of having a player like Doncic does give them the extra benefit of the doubt — a player doesn’t have to win an actual championship to think he can win one.
Top Tier Contenders: Thunder, Timberwolves
These teams have as good of a chance as anyone but they’re just not fully there yet to reach the elite of the elite tier. This could be a new core or a young team that hasn’t had the chance to prove themselves. Or it could be existing consistent contenders that still have many questions left to answer. For the most part, to reach the upper tier, it’s a case of go and prove it than anything else.
There are a couple of things with these two teams that made me hold back on pushing them further — one more than the other.
With the Thunder, It’s a combination of making significant moves that did look to address some of the questions and flaws that hurt them but still needing to see that in action. Bringing Isaiah Hartstein does change things for them that may be perfect but we obviously won’t know until we do. This isn’t the same as adding someone like Alex Caruso whom we’d need to see first.
Their playoff chances also weren’t at the highest this year. Even with the off-season that they had, there are still a lot of potential things that need to go right for them. Do they even have that kind of second star next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Is Shai even the guy yet? That’s where the “you got to prove it” comes in.
They certainly have all of the potential to be a favorite. They are well-balanced on both ends of the floor. A lot of their strengths should be effective in a playoff setting. They are deep. But they have a lot more questions for a true favourite and it’s a season where we wait and see.
This is similar to the Wolves, but to a bigger extent. They did make the conference finals last year but a lot of their flaws were put on notice against the Mavericks. The lack of shooting allowed the Mavericks to pack the paint. Anthony Edwards was forced into jumpers and they weren’t falling. The defense wasn’t hitting the same with Doncic picking it apart. There was a lot that they needed to address.
They would’ve been in this tier had they run it back. But instead, they went ahead and changed the core of this team by trading Karl Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. For me, if a team makes a win-now move that isn’t a sure thing then I don’t know if said move would push a team to a different tier even if they might be better.
The Randle-Towns swap changes so much for them. It’s a completely different dynamic with both Edwards and Rudy Gobert. That will take time to figure itself out and even if it does, this isn’t a move that would even guarantee them a shot at the title. It wasn’t a sure thing before the trade and Randle is not a player that I would look at as a clear ceiling-raiser. There’s film of what Randle has done(or hasn’t done) in the playoffs. That in itself is a huge question mark. Can you even win with Randle as the second-best offensive player?
And similar to Shai, is Edwards even that guy yet? He still has that case of needing to go and prove it because there are way too many question marks and flaws to put him and the team in that tier.
Deep Run: Suns, Warriors, Lakers
These teams can go on a deep run, but I have some concerns for whether they can compete for a championship. I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat any of the upper teams, but can they win four times against likely better competition? This can be a case of the perfect bracket, perfect matchups, and luck that has them going on a deep run. But they may have too many questions or things needing to go right for them to even have a chance — they need things to be perfect.
Three teams that I have no idea how to feel about. Three teams that all probably should be in different sub-tiers, too. For two of these teams, it’s banking a lot on the best player(and I mean a lot).
The Suns would be my pick for the biggest dark horse here. They have the most top-end talent here that makes the difference. They didn’t have the best season, especially in the playoffs, but having Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal does give you the bigger upside. That trio together was really good. I do wonder if the Suns were kind of underrated this year. They did a good job on both ends of the floor, though, there is a slight eye raise regarding their defense.
There is also the offense! The trio together in the playoffs weren’t putting up points. The stars were feasting and were highly efficient but they scored sub 100 TWICE. They had a 110.5 offensive rating. The good news is that this is fixable. Some of it is a math game that can be fixed with more 3s. More good news is that teams under Mike Budenholzer have ranked near the top. On that note, the Budenholzer signing changes things. That could be a difference maker given his past experience.
On the other hand, there have been some declines from Durant that could become more noticeable. He already has seen significant drop-offs in every on-ball action. If Durant isn’t Durant, you lose that top-10-level caliber because those slight declines can have a huge effect. That places more of a burden on everyone else, and that’s one of the reasons why they’re not in the upper tier.
But out of everyone else here and below, they have the most potential answers.
With both the Lakers and Warriors, there is a strong case that they should be lower. Maybe I’m fooling myself even having them this high. A lot of this isn’t based much in logic, but blind faith in both LeBron James and Stephen Curry. As mentioned before, top-end talent, particularly if the players are on a whole different level, that raises a lot for teams. I’m not there to count out either of Curry and James, even at this point of their careers, especially in a playoff setting.
I can also buy into the team that the Warriors have, maybe on defense. They were a solid team with Draymond Green playing, though, that is going to be asking a lot from him to carry defensively. That’s where their margin of error is very, very slim. Then, there’s also the other end of the floor that will have a similar approach but with Curry needing to carry. I can buy into it, but man, there’s a lot of convincing that needs to be done.
In a perfect bracket, with perfect health, I can see them also making some noise, but they will be way worse overall against a team like the Mavericks, the Nuggets, or the Thunder.
Similar to the Lakers. They were a play-in team with a lot of their key guys being healthy and playing the most games in a while. They don’t have the health argument that you could’ve made in 2023 with them. Their top players were healthy and it still wasn’t enough. I don’t know if I’m confident in them having that kind of injury luck again through the regular season. And if they find themselves in the play-in again, that’s going to be a bigger hole to get out of.
They may have made more noise again this year had they hit the right matchup that wasn’t the Nuggets in the first round, in the same way they did in 2023. But even then, they have way too many holes and way too many questions, and way too many things needing to go right to even compete with the elite of the elite teams in multiple series.
But then again, they have James and this might be a cop but I will never bet against him.
This tier does feel the way of having blind faith in the top-end talent because that’s what all those players have done in their careers regardless of the team around them.
1st Round Exit, 2nd If We’re Lucky: Rockets, Kings, Pelicans, Clippers, Grizzlies
These teams may be a young team still looking to make those jumps, it could be a team that is one or two piece being away, their best player needs more help but are on the right track, or they’re just mediocre. But with the play-in being a thing, it could be a young team that is already on track to take the next step in their rebuild that could be looking for playoff experience and be happy with it.
The biggest group of teams and that’s mainly because this tier is that broad. It can have many different kinds of teams here. A lot of these teams are very different from one another. Some of these teams may, in fact, have such a higher ceiling when it comes to going far in the playoffs. Some of these teams may not even reach the play-in. But relative to every other team in the tiers above, this feels like a group that belongs together, rather than with others.
The Rockets fit the first part of this tier and they’re the only one fits that. They are a young core. They likely won’t even make the playoffs. That’s why whatever they can do to get some playoff experience, it’s going to be good enough for them.
The Rockets should be a lot better from last year with the addition of Steven Adams, Reed Sheppard, and plenty of internal improvements. But the West is so cramped up together with the rest of the four teams here, that I don’t know if they’re better. This might be a close one because of injuries and other luck factors. But that’s the way for them to even reach the play-in.
The Kings might fall into a similar issue. They did get better. Adding DeMar DeRozan will make a difference for them which should see big changes. But they aren’t changes that clearly put them ahead of these teams either. It’s also not like they were some consistent playoff team either. They have a lot of work to even get to that point.
Even if they go through the play-in(because that is only two games that can go either way), I’m trying to figure out who they could even beat in the best-case scenario. Unless they somehow match up with one of these teams or Lakers and Warriors, I don’t see how it could be possible for them to get to the second round. Their playoff chances may depend entirely on their regular season. If they can get a high seed and have a better matchup, I can see that being competitive. If they’re in the play-in, they likely won’t be making any noise against the first or second seed.
This will likely apply to both the Pelicans and the Clippers, except with them there’s a huge concern for health.
Not only do the Pelicans have the health concern that they’ve dealt with every single season, but they’re also in a weird spot of trying to figure out a whole bunch of things. Do they even have a legit starting level 5? Will that be by committee? Is Zion Williamson taking on that role? They also made a huge trade that shook up what they had so far by trading for Dejounte Murray!
How is that going to work with all of the pieces? Is a Murray-Ingram-Williamson trio good enough? If so, good enough for what? We still haven’t seen Williamson in a playoff setting yet. This year, this team wasn’t ready one bit, they were without Williamson, but that series still looked rough.
I’m not sure they even got better from last year. Even with some of their questions answered, they aren’t at the level to be a contender. Depending on how their health looks and what their season is going to look like with the seeding, this might easily be another first-round exit.
The Clippers got worse. They lost Paul George and that is going to matter significantly. They’re also another team that has something going wrong with them in each playoff. Last year, it was Kawhi Leonard getting injured. That’s why it was a first-round exit.
Had they run it back, there were going to be question marks, primarily on their health and age. The potential for them had they run it back was there, it was more of a question of can they actually stay on the court. I had my doubts that age wouldn’t catch up to them, particularly on the defensive end. This is still an issue that may be even worse. Both Leonard and Harden are going to be in a different role that may be more taxing on them. Will they even be at 100% in the playoffs?
But assuming they are, that George-sized hole is a concern. I’m not sure how much I can buy into the team having enough at the top. After Harden and Leonard, who’s their third-best player offensively? But the biggest worry is their defense.
The top-end talent is the best out of anyone here and for that reason, they will have a solid chance against most teams — Leonard is another one of those players that I can’t bet against if he’s healthy… but is he going to play?
Finally, we have the Grizzlies. They are an odd team because of the gap they had this year due to unfortunate circumstances. It’s not having your best player available because of a suspension and then because of an injury. It’s everyone dealing with injuries. They had the worst injury luck out of any teams that I can remember in a while.
They were a 50+ win team twice before, though. This wasn’t just an average young team. They were already on the right track to look to compete. They weren’t there yet but it was good progress. So, how likely is it that they can seamlessly bounce back to at least those levels?
The Steven Adams loss hurts them and the replacement is Zach Edey. I feel like a lot of their season hinges on him. Relying on a rookie to have a big impact, especially in the playoffs, is going to be worrying.
At the same time, their core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr have proved that they’re at least a very good core that can win you a series and make any other competitive. Can they at least get there and improve on that?
What’s a Championship? Blazers, Spurs, Jazz
These teams aren’t or should be thinking about a playoff spot. I would be SHOCKED if most of these teams could even make a play-in. If the goal at the end isn’t to win the lottery, they’re focusing on the wrong thing.
The Rockets are the clear best team here, but in comparison to the teams ahead, they’re still the odd man out. As deep as they may be, they don’t have the top-end talent or that thing to carry them. They were great defensively, but not good enough to offset their offense.
The Jazz will have plenty of young players getting a bunch of minutes for their development and a lot of those players won’t have much impact on winning. They could be fun offensively, but they were the worst defense in the league and that’s not going to lead to wins.
The Blazers are right at the start of their rebuild with not much going for them when it comes to actually being on the right track to look to win. They have vets that they can(and should) sell, and that will only mean that their goal of winning, will be winning the lottery.
Finally, we have the Spurs. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were to take a big enough leap to maybe reach the second tier where they can get into the play-in. That all depends on how significant of a leap can Victor Wembanyama can take. The Chris Paul effect might be too good, too. But as much as I buy into that, I don’t know how much I can buy into the rest of the team.