New York Knicks 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
The New York Knicks won 50 games. That’s the first time since 2013. It’s been over 10 years since they saw this kind of success both in the regular season and the playoffs.
And this still feels like an unfortunate season for them because they never got the opportunity to reach their full potential. Every time they did something that would make you think they could do something, something hit them from behind and put that to rest.
Julius Randle only played 46 games and missed the playoffs. They traded both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for OG Anunoby and that immediately looked great. He played 14 games and had an insane plus/minus. Then he missed 18 games straight before coming back for three then missed nine more. He played in the playoffs! But got hurt in the second round for four games. If that wasn’t bad enough, Jalen Brunson also didn’t finish the season healthy.
They did manage to push the Indiana Pacers to seven games but with missing Randle, Anunoby, and a limited Brunson, they weren’t able to reach the conference finals.
Their off-season was busy. It started with potentially overpaying for Mikal Bridges. It looks like they were set on their guy for a long time and they finally got him. The package for him does seem pretty wild though:
Bojan Bogdanovic
Mamadi Diakite
Shake Milton
Unprotected first in 2025, 27, 29, 31
Unprotected swap in 2028
Top 4 protected in 2025 via Bucks
2nd round pick in 2025
They did lose Isaiah Hartenstein, which is a significant loss to me. That loss had me look at their season cautiously, especially with the Mitchell Robinson news.
Then, just last night(at the time of writing this), the Knicks decided to trade for Karl Anthony Towns. That was unexpected and came out of nowhere — just like another trade exactly 365 days ago.
That changes everything. They traded Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Towns. Wow. Okay. I’m not sure how to feel about this right now. This is something that will have to be thought through properly.
So, in the end, their off-season brought drastic changes and I don’t know how much better they got. Now, the Knicks are a lot more exciting to watch to see how it even works.
Key Questions and Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Knicks?
TRADING FOR TOWNS!
How much will losing Hartenstein hurt them?
Can they survive with Towns as the sole big?
How will they look to use Bridges?
Anunoby staying healthy and having that impact that he had
Brunson has a lot on his back offensively
Their offensive rebounding
Will their defense be good enough?
Let’s start with the obvious — I will likely add more to this section with a separate breakdown at some point going through it in more detail. This will be just the general questions, concerns, and thoughts.
So, I’m conflicting with this. I was pro-trading Randle and that was a thing I would’ve wanted the Knicks to do. I think in a vacuum, especially offensively, swapping out Randle for Towns is an upgrade fit-wise. They are good at different things that are more or less impactful in different settings and team contexts.
This is where I can see the benefit of having Towns over Randle. He gives Brunson a very different player. He never had a pop threat like that. Towns is a 40% shooter from 3pt in his career. In the last five years, he’s shooting 40% on over 8 3s per 100.
These actions now will give the Knicks something completely different. You can’t defend that in the same way as you did against Hartenstein or Robinson, which can potentially open up so many different avenues.
Towns also don’t need the ball to be effective in the same way as Randle. He’s also highly efficient from anywhere. He has been a 68% career shooter at the rim, 47% within 4-14ft.
This does give them more options on that end whether it’s him as the four or the five. As a four, he’s also a much better spacer than Randle. He’s a career 40% shooter in the corner, though, the volume isn’t that high there.
But it’s also not all positive for them either on that end:
The Knicks offense depends a lot on their offensive rebounding. That was elite with either Hartenstein or Robinson. The Wolves with Towns on were one of the worst. How much better can the Knicks be with Towns? Will they see a significant drop-off, especially if it’s Towns as the sole big? If they do a 5-out offense, then that will hurt those opportunities a lot. In the aggregate, will that end up being a positive?
One other point is the screening itself. That is needed for the Knicks offense with Brunson. How effective will Brunson be with a completely different big? Yes, he gives him something else but he also doesn’t do what made Brunson effective with Hartenstein either.
Then there’s the self-creation that Randle also brought. Randle has been an All-NBA talent. He is a better scorer, a better passer, can have the offense run through him more, and that can lead to a good offense. That did take some load off Brunson and I’m not sure Towns can replicate that — that was one of the flaws with the Wolves.
That’s why the offensive side isn’t without any huge questions.
There’s the defense that is just as big of an issue. I already had some concerns about it before the Towns trade. Losing Hartenstein is going to matter, even with the addition of Anunoby and Bridges.
What is a defense anchored by Robinson? What about a defense anchored by Towns? There was a reason why the Wolves had to get Gobert next to him. Towns at the five cause issues on defense that I don’t think the Wings can easily clean up.
It’s one thing to cover up a small guard or even an entire backcourt that’s undersized. It’s another to cover up a big(or two), especially one that is also one of the worst at things needing to be effective as a big.
The rim protection isn’t there with him. His IQ off-ball, even in a perfect situation alongside Gobert and McDaniels wasn’t good. The Wolves defense was 119 with Towns and no Gobert.
I’m having a hard time convincing myself that their defense is going to be good.
That’s why this move combined with everything else and losing Hartenstein, I’m not sure if this was the right move on either end of the floor. This will now be the biggest thing about the Knicks this season.
But what about everything else? What would’ve been as big had they not made this trade?
They had another big trade that needs to be considered! Did they overpay for the Bridges? All of those picks for a non-all-star is questionable. All of those picks where he has shown he’s not the guy with the potential to be the guy on any team. He is a utility guy who fits better on good teams where he can play within the system. That’s a lot for that kind of guy.
So, is it going to be worth the price?
The goal is for him to slide down into a similar role that he had with the Suns. It’s a spot-up guy. It’s play off-ball. Be smart with the cutting, screening, and connective passing. Most importantly, it’s being one of the best defenders in the league.
The first thing that stood out in his time in Brooklyn was the increase in 3pt volume. He shot 37% on over 10 3s per 100. Before that, the highest was 6.6 in 2021. That’s a significant difference in turning himself into a volume shooter. He’s going to add plenty of shooting off the catch. He shot 38% on over 5 catch and shoot 3s.
On top of that, being in a lesser role surrounded by players who can create for him, he has already shown that he can attack off the catch, beat closeouts, and be smart without the ball. That’s why, in a similar role in Phoenix, he shot 72% at the rim.
But the bonus of getting him now post his time in Brooklyn is how he is capable of being asked to do more. He did have a 56% TS on a tough shot diet where he also had a .245 free throw rate. He wasn’t good enough to be the number one option, but that ability even at that level is going to be an upgrade over what they had.
Then there’s the defensive side. With there already being concerns on the defensive end, he will help as much as he can. The first is with the toughest matchups that he can take. He can guard your Shai’s, Curry’s, and Edwards’, etc. These are all of the star guards that he can effectively take the responsibility off of someone else.
I don’t think there are any questions of fit or concerns here. The only question is how much will that help them. He is an effective player on both ends in various roles, so this is as perfect as it can be for the Knicks.
Joining him on the defense is Anunoby. He already had his impact felt. It was a small sample but I do expect a similar trend going forward. His job now, though, is going to be even more important.
That’s why his health is going to be important. I don’t know what they would do if he does miss time. Since getting traded, they were +22.4 in 802 minutes and only -0.8 without him. In the 27 games that he missed, they were 13-14 with +2.1 net.
Without Anunoby and Robinson having his own health issues, this can get scary very quickly.
What about when he is on the court? He’s going to have to take a lot of defensive responsibility. He’s likely going to guard up a lot of the time. With Towns as the big, his role as a weakside rim protector is also going to be crucial. This is where he can prove that he’s worth all of that money.
Can this duo be a difference-maker in the playoffs on that end? Is that enough to slow down some of the elite offenses? Is it enough to clean everything else from Towns and Brunson?
A lot for me does come down to that defense potentially not being good enough and not feeling comfortable that their elite wings are enough, even if said wings are elite.
But there’s just as big of a worry on offense now too.
We’ve seen it this year already that Brunson was carrying a lot. He, himself, took another leap as a scorer and being the whole engine. He made the All-NBA second team for the first time in his career and was top five in MVP.
And when I say he was an engine, he led the league in time of possession, average seconds per touch, and average dribble. He was as ball-dominant as you could get. He was responsible for so much. That increased in the playoffs too! He had a 10.0-time possession with 6.49 average sec and 6.53 average dribble. This was insane levels.
I don’t think they made life easier for him. He averaged over 30 true shooting attempts per game in the playoffs. A lot of that was because there was no Randle and I don’t know if Towns can help significantly there.
Brunson will need help! Because who is it? Bridges isn’t doing that effectively. Anunoby definitely isn’t one. Hart? McBride? Towns is the best bet but if he was that guy, the Wolves offense would’ve been better and they wouldn’t have similar issues with Edwards either.
When it comes to Brunson individually, though, he has taken steps too. One of those steps is becoming a higher-volume 3-point shooter. He shot 38% on 2.8(16% of FGA) last year and that jumped to 37% on 4.3(20%). That’s a significant jump. Almost doubling the volume.
But there are some concerns. He is a bad rim finisher. sub 60% in these two seasons. BUT, how much will that improve with better spacing? The Knicks were at the bottom with the opponent’s rim protector being the closest at the rim. Towns will help that.
On the other hand, he is a career 50% from 4-14ft. That has remained an effective weapon for him. I can see a world where he’s even more efficient as a scorer this year with the improved spacing.
This team has gone through so many changes and that leaves them with so many questions on both ends. But that’s exciting to make this team a must-watch.
I’m not sure yet how much better they are on either end. Some of the questions that they had in the playoffs with Brunson taking on too much are still there. The defensive concerns with losing Hartenstein are made worse with Towns. There are things that make the argument that they’re better but for everyone, there’s a downside too. It will be figuring out all of it.
Predictions
48-53 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 5th seed health will be an issue
Ceiling(best case scenario: Top 3 seed
I’m so conflicted with the Knicks. I genuinely don’t know how to feel about their season. Two of the guys that they traded for have health concerns that can easily derail their season. Their potential starting big is another one.
If any of them goes down, I don’t know how they can survive.
The offensive load on Brunson is too big for me and that can hurt how effective he is through 82 games. The Knicks offense was 122.9 with him and 108.6 without him. I don’t see that changing any time soon.
Maybe it is a case for a lot of the teams too, but with this team, they have too many scenarios where it’s all or nothing. There’s Robinson, Anunoby, the offense without Brunson, and the defense.
This team is likely to have a very volatile outcome.
I do think the Hartenstein loss will hurt them a lot more than what you get by replacing him with Towns. The defense and the offensive rebounding are likely to suffer.
Overall, this is going to be an interesting season for the Knicks. Right now, this might be the most interesting one in the league with all of the changes they made.