Oklahoma City Thunder 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
What a season from the Oklahoma City Thunder. A 17-win increase? WOW. They made a huge jump on both ends of the floor. Per Cleaning the Glass, they ranked 16th on both offense and defense, and that jumped to third and fourth.
They were one of four teams to be top 10 on both ends. They were one of two teams to be top four on both ends. This was a dominant season for them and they haven’t even scratched the potential of this core, not one bit.
And it’s how they made those jumps that matter the most. This wasn’t just led by one player making a jump. This wasn’t just one single thing that could make this look unsustainable or lucky. This was a collective effort from everyone and everything involved — from top-end talent to role players, everyone buying in and scheming.
This was getting Chet Holmgren back and immediately made his impact felt on both ends. It was the league’s best shooting to give the best driving team more space. It was being a nasty, active defense that forced a bunch of turnovers. It was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing like an MVP. Then a whole bunch of length, size, shooting, and defense from everyone else.
They did have a rough patch in the playoffs, particularly offensively, and they did have some of their weaknesses and flaws show up a lot. Their lack of rebounding, a “big” paint presence, and some of the spacing from their subpar shooters were an issue.
This was their first playoff appearance with this whole group, though. There shouldn’t be any strong negative takeaways from this. This was a successful season by all accounts.
Probably the best thing about their season this year is this. In the playoffs, out of the eight players with at least 15 minutes per game, the oldest one is Shai… at 26 years old.
That means there are different avenues to improve. You can bank on potential growth from the young players and/or you can take a more drastic approach by getting more vets instead.
That’s exactly what they did in the off-season. They added two key veterans Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso. Both moves make them a lot better. One of them 100% addresses potential weaknesses that they dealt with this year with the size and having a big. They needed that flexibility. Caruso makes them better in the things that they were already elite at. That makes the margin of error bigger.
They addressed what they needed to address. They didn’t have to make a big move to get better. They still have every potential asset that you can think of to make more moves. This was a perfect off-season for them, followed by a great off-season to set themselves up to compete for a championship.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Thunder:
Shai continuing to play like an MVP
How much will the additions of Caruso and Hartenstein change things?
Holmgren at the four?
Hartenstein’s impact offensively
Did they address their issues and flaws enough? What weaknesses could they have now?
Jalen Williams’ potential leap? Can he take some load off of Shai?
So much more lineup flexibility
All other young blood
Should they maximize this core right now with the contract situation?
There’s a lot for the Thunder to be considered. Without considering the two additions that also change a lot on both ends of the floor, they would’ve had so many potential questions. Again, even without considering the issues that they would’ve had to address, they already had players that raised more questions!
The first is, not necessarily a question, but a curiosity. This was Shai’s second year in a row averaging over 30 points and being All-NBA first team. He has established himself as one of the best players in the league. He was averaging 30 last year, too but this was a much better season for him.
The improvements that he made were showing. He was a big reason why they were so dominant offensively. Last year, they had a 117.6 offense with him and 111.5 without him. This year, it was 122.7 and 113.5 without him. He raises a lot for them.
That was reflected in his impact metrics too where he jumped from +5.8 to +8.8 EPM. Last year he ranked 15th in offensive EPM, this year it was sixth. He was 71st in defensive EPM and that improved to 14th.
That was a result of many, many things that he worked on or added:
Rim FG%: 63.9% → 69.5%
Short mid FG%: 46.5% → 52.4%
3pt rate: .122 → .181
AST%: 25.7% → 29.8%
TOV%: 10.4% → 8.4%
STL%: 2.2% → 2.8%
Drive FG%: 51.8% → 57.3%
Pick and roll PPP: 1.01 → 1.14
Pick and roll eFG%: 50.8% → 56.9%
Pick and roll TOV%: 14.0% → 10.8%
Isolation PPP: 1.06 → 1.11
Isolation FG%: 46.0% → 48.5%
That’s a big list of improvements. He’s a much more dangerous scorer. He also made sure to cut down on the turnovers by a good margin.
But on that note, he has huge responsibility with the ball. He’s near the top in time of possession. Can we see Shai as more of a passer? He already has all of the tools to be an effective scorer and get to every spot he wants to. Should there be an adjustment to make more reads for others? His pass-out of drives isn’t at a high level either.
It’s always fun thinking about the elite of the elite players still looking to adjust their games. He’s already at the level where they can compete for him, but the more ways he improves his game, the bigger the margin of error will they have.
Who’s going to be the guy next to him? That was one of the issues in the playoffs where there weren’t anyone else that could reliably take the responsibility off of him.
The best bet for that is, of course, Jalen Williams. He’s already shown plenty of improvements in his second year as that scorer.
He upped his scoring from 16.5 points per 75 to 21.9. His eFG% increased from 56.7% to 59.2%. The biggest improvement has been with his 3-point shooting where it went from below average at 35.6% to 42.7%. What’s also encouraging is how his assisted 3s went from 90.4% to 74.8%
A lot of it has to do with that pull-up threat whether inside or outside the arc:
Pull up 2pt: 41.2% on 1.5(14% of FGA) → 52.9% on 3.8(27%)
Pull up 3pt: 33.3% on 0.4(4%) → 42.1% on 1.3(10%)
That’s a significant improvement. That mid-range is lethal for him now. That also translated with his PNR efficiency going from 0.92(26% freq) to 1.00(37%), but that did drop to 0.93 in the playoffs.
The Thunder did have him up his touches and on-ball responsibility. His touches per 36 minutes went from around 55 to 66. He was second on the team in time of possession with 3.9. The question now is will that continue to steadily improve? Can he continue to develop counters, be more effective at what he does, and add new things with more responsibility?
And there’s Holmgren, who will be important both in terms of his development and how much flexibility he can give with Hartenstein.
Holmgren already came in as one of the more impactful players in the league. He’s one of the better rim protectors. A big reason why the Thunder were so good defensively.
The opponent shot around 53% at the rim on over 8 shots, which is 11% worse than expected. It remained the same at 53% on almost 10 shots and was almost 15% worse than expected. That’s already an elite level of rim protection.
There’s the offensive side that’s just as important and impactful. He casually shot 37% on 7 3s per 100. He can turn himself into a legit 7fter who can be an elite rim protector and a spacing big at a significant volume. He can also give you drives. He averaged 7.9 drives per 36 and shot 58% on them! That should open up more if he becomes a bigger threat from 3pt.
How he looks to develop on both ends of the floor can change everything for the Thunder. He does have a lot of potential.
But his impact and development are tied to the new additions. That’s where it can make a bigger difference for the team’s chances at a title.
I went through the trade in more detail here:
With Caruso, he doesn’t address a particular need or help their weaknesses but he makes them better in everything that they do well already. It starts with the defense. He’s been in the 99th percentile in D-EPM in 3 of the last 4 seasons.
He’s had a 2.6% steal rate(94th%ile or higher) in his 5 last season. This will make the Thunder’s defense even more disruptive. They were first in opponent TOV% with 15.7%. The Bulls had a 15.6%, 17.1%, and 15.7% with Caruso on in the last three seasons.
The Bulls defense depended a lot on Caruso:
2024: 114.1 with him / 119.7 without him
2023: 109.2 / 115.2
2022: 108.1 / 116.7
I do have some questions about the offense, particularly with spacing issues that they also experienced in the playoffs. He is a career 38% shooter from 3pt but on just under 3 attempts. He did have his most effective and efficient season and shot 41% on double the 3-point volume. Yet, he was seen as a negative in impact metrics.
His spot-up efficiency numbers are also underwhelming:
52nd %ile → 53rd → 33rd → 73rd → 39th(25th in the bubble)
I do wonder if this is going to be a Josh Giddey situation. Still, he does add a lot more than Giddey did and that alone makes it an improvement. He also feels like a guy who can simply add to everything without needing to change much.
Hartenstein is a different case. He changes a lot for the Thunder. He gives them the option to play bigger. He’s a big presence in the paint that they didn’t even have on a roster. There’s a difference between having a player in the dunker spot that is around 6’6 and a near 7fter that can finish efficiently there. They didn’t have that kind of a big to-do simple big stuff.
I don’t think that will hinder what they want to do either, but it will also give them things they couldn’t do.
Hartenstein was an impactful player for the Knicks. He looked much better as a starter too.
He shoots over 71% at the rim, 26% of his shots are dunks, he shoots 57% within 3-10ft, and has a deadly floater. That alone is something that the Thunder didn’t have. They had Bismack Biyombo lead them in screen assists with 2.5. Hartenstein is at 3.5. That’s a completely different dynamic that Shai or Williams had.
He will be able to finish in the PNR, off-ball around the paint, set hard screens, or can be used as a hub too. That was fun to watch with him and Jalen Brunson. That again gives the Thunder variety in the offense.
There’s plenty more too. The Thunder had a 23.7% ORB. The Knicks with Hartenstein had a 31.5%. That’s a significant upgrade in them being able to crash the glass. That was needed in the playoffs. Hartenstein ranked second in offensive rebounding, fourth in ORB chances, and fourth in contested ORB in the playoffs. Their offense struggled and one way to improve it is to get more second-chance points.
The biggest question is how exactly will all of that work with Holmgren next to him. The whole offense with the Thunder is that 5-out spacing, but I don’t think this will limit them in any way either. It will definitely change things, but change things for the better.
There shouldn’t be an issue with Holmgren either. He was already being used as a spacing big and a perimeter player. Only 8% of his offense ended as a cut, compared to 24% on spot-ups. 20% of his offense is as a roll man, but he’s more of a pop threat than a roll one.
Hartenstein is the opposite and that’s why it should work. There’s no overlapping skillset with them even if they’re both bigs. There are ways to use them both to maximize everyone.
The defense is just as intriguing. Hartenstein is another solid rim protector. With him on, opponents shot 60.7% at the rim. Take him off, and it jumps to 66.2%. When they challenged him, they shot 53.1% within 6ft. That’s 11.2% worse than expected. Out of 34 players that defended at least 6 shots at the rim, he’s sixth in %.
The Thunder will have two elite rim protectors. One of the issues for the Thunder was when Holmgren went off the court, the opponent shot 65.6% at the rim. Now, that won’t be an issue. They can have elite rim protection for 48 minutes.
The defensive rebounding should also be much better. The Thunder ranked 29th in opponent ORB% with 28.9. The Knicks with Hartenstein had 24.6%. Even if it won’t reach those levels, it’s still an upgrade over being almost last.
The Hartenstein addition can swing so many things for them. It addresses their biggest holes. It helps with the rim protection without Holmgren. It gives them versatility on both ends of the floor. It gives their offense more options in what they can run and how they can run it. This can be their difference maker, though, it will also depend on Holmgren’s growth offensively.
The best thing about this is that there are many options for them now when it comes to what they run. It will be interesting to see what they can cook up.
Finally, there are still all of the young guys. There’s Cason Wallace, Ousmane Dieng, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, and even relatively young Lu Dot. Every one of those gives them something different. There’s a combination of defense, shooting, or ball handling.
What else can those players add to their game? What even is their role as a contender? Or do they consider making a trade for another veteran that could help them more right now in a similar way they did for Caruso?
I do wonder if they should make more moves like that whilst a lot of their core is still either on their rookie deals or bargain ones. This is the perfect time to take advantage before getting hit with a nasty bill to keep everyone.
Predictions
55-63 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): 3rd seed
Ceiling(best case scenario): Best in the League
They already took a leap last year and would’ve been in contention to be a top-three team regardless of the moves that they made in the off-season. This was going to get better. They are elite on both ends of the floor and that combination raises the floor of a team significantly.
And now, they got better on both ends of the floor in both the regular season and the playoffs.
Their ceiling is easily the best team in the league when it comes to record-wise. As it is now, they are also up there as legit contenders with as good of a chance at a title as everyone else. There’s nothing that stops them from reaching that. They still have many questions, though, but it is all encouraging and they also have the answers on the team.
I don’t see anything that they don’t have that can’t be addressed with smart coaching and system or players making reasonable improvements. Their ceiling isn’t dependent on acquiring another All-Star player. It also isn’t dependent on either Williams or Holmgren to develop into All-Stars. They can compete with Shai as the clear sole All-NBA talent.
The biggest reason for that is how balanced they are offensively and with the two additions in Hartenstein and Caruso, they not only get better on those ends, but they also become more versatile and have more flexibility.
Overall, they should be the team right now to watch out for and the team to take down the Celtics if both make the finals. This all becomes scarier if there is a player that breaks out and some of the swings do swing their way. Because even in the most conservative scenario, they’re still a legit contender. If you’re optimistic about this team, then they have a good argument to be the favorites.