Phoenix Suns 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-Season Recap
After locking themselves into a roster that is expensive, very top-heavy, and has little options or flexibility to improve, this was a disappointing season.
There is no other way to spin this. They were all in on this core when they decided to trade for Bradley Beal. And the thing that they have to show for it is a first-round exit.
This wasn’t a team that could be dominant in the regular season. This also wasn’t a team that could even make a deep run. This wasn’t a team that could win a playoff series. This wasn’t even a team that could win a single playoff game.
Health played a part, but I’m not sure how much of that explains this. Yes, Beal did only play 53 games and was working himself into shape. That does make the chemistry harder to develop.
But they still had Kevin Durant play 75 games, which was the most since 2019. They had Devin Booker play 68 games, Grayson Allen with 75, Eric Gordon with 68, and Jusuf Nurkic with 76.
And yet, with that, they still couldn’t hit 50 wins.
But at the same time, I do feel like their season went a bit underrated, even by me now writing about it. They were eighth in net rating, had the ninth-best offense, and were 12th on defense. That’s a team that was almost top 10 on both ends.
On the other hand, they didn’t win a single game in the playoffs. That’s inexcusable. There is no way you can justify that.
There is way too much top-end talent and still decent role players that should be good enough on both ends to win you something or at least make the series more competitive — the Suns with both Durant and Booker were -18.2 in 156 minutes with a 110.8 offense.
-18.2 with two top 15 talents and they were struggling offensively, despite both stars having great series themselves.
Their off-season was quiet, especially compared to what they did last year, but there wasn’t anything else that they could’ve done. They brought back Royce O’Neale, Josh Okogie, Bol Bol, and Damion Lee. They did end up losing Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks. They also added a few rookies, as well as getting two guards in Tyus Jones and Monte Morris.
The biggest change in the off-season will likely have to do with hiring Mike Budenholzer. This kind of coaching change can make a difference. He’s also a championship coach. The defense in Milwaukee with him was one of the best in the league. There’s a lot that could go right for them under Bud.
Key Questions & Storylines
So, what’s in store for the Suns?
Will their top three players play more together?
Are they going to be horrid in the fourth quarter again?
Can Durant continue his top-10 play, particularly on the defensive end?
What can we expect from Booker after his Olympic run?
Will see Beal bounce back to an All-NBA level talent?
How do we feel about Nurkic?
What changes will Budenholzer bring?
How can their offense be better in the playoffs?
Will finally getting a point guard make a difference for them?
The most important point is how much of the top three will see. Both Durant and Booker played a lot of games(Durant hasn’t played this many games in years). Is it fair to assume that they will repeat that, especially with both playing in the Olympics?
That’s an issue in itself. But when it comes to the on-court discussion, those three together were very successful, at least offensively.
They were +6.7 in 862 minutes with a 123.6 offense. They had a 60.4% eFG and 63.2% TS. That’s just stupidly good — this improves to +9.1 with 125.7 when you add Nurkic. All three players were doing their thing:
Booker: 27.0 points per 75 on 60.2% eFG & 64.3% TS with 27.1% usage
Durant: 21.9 points on 57.7% & 60.3% with 24.1% usage
Beal: 17.8 points on 64.5% and 66.3% with 18.8%
They worked well together. And yet, the offense didn’t work in the playoffs and they had issues in the fourth all season long.
In the fourth, they had the worst offense at 105.1. A lot of that had to do with them having a 16.0% turnover, which was the third highest.
Although the top trio together in the fourth were +6.6 in 188 minutes with a 117.2 offense. Still down but not terribly and they were winning the minutes. They did have a 62.2% TS, too.
Playing around with the lineups, it does look like Nurkic was key in their success in the fourth:
Nurkic on: +3.8 with a 115.7 offense in 371 minutes
Nurkic off: -18.1 with a 101.7 offense in 633 minutes
They shouldn’t be that bad. They have top-end talent that should make anything work. This is where with more playing time and a different coach, I can see them being completely different.
For all of that to happen, those three players need to continue to play at the level that they did. There are no doubts when it comes to Booker. The expectation should be that he will at least stay as he is and should continue to improve.
The questions come with both Durant and Beal. They are older. I know Durant is defying logic and it looks like Father Time doesn’t apply to him… but it will at some point. With players like him, there’s no telling or any kind of indication. Many thought that after his injury in 2019, there would be significant declines. For every decline or drop-off he has, he countered with something else.
He’s still a knockdown shooter from 3pt making over 41%. He still casually shoots over 56% from 2pt.
But there have already been some declines. Here’s scoring in isolation since 2021(starting this year)
0.94(45.2% eFG) → 1.02(50.6%) → 1.10(55.6%) → 1.18(60.8%)
His PNR:
1.00(56.1%) → 1.19(64.8%) → 1.04(53.6%) → 1.01(55.0%)
His post up:
0.89(47.2%) → 1.15(63.0%) → 1.13(56.4%) → 1.15(57.4%)
His handoffs:
0.86(48.7%) → 1.19(64.8%) → 1.04(57.4%) → 0.96(54.3%)
His off-screen:
1.15(58.7%) → 0.99(53.4%) → 1.13(58.4%) → 1.03(54.1%)
His spot ups:
1.16(60.6%) → 1.43(71.2%) → 1.12(55.5%) → 1.17(62.4%)
He has dropped to the lowest in every on-ball situation. He’s just as lethal off-ball, though. Will that bounce back or is this a sign of something?
If there are drop-offs, then that changes everything for the Suns. That puts a lot more pressure on Booker and Beal when it comes to their on-ball responsibilities.
And with all those three players, they all feel that would be maximized off-ball. That’s what we saw from Booker in the Olympics. That’s the role that he can thrive in.
But what else can we expect from Booker? To me, he’s been in the top 15-20 range. He’s still only 27 years old. Can he establish himself as the clear best player on this team and be effective in that role?
He was already leading the team in touches and was the most on-ball with 6.2 time of possession. That’s where the struggle will come. Do you need him in that role because of the decline in Durant(and how he’s more effective without the ball) or do you try to have him in a role similar to 2022(he had a 4.2 time of possession)?
Oh, there’s still Beal that needs to be considered. I forgot about Beal. With his contract, he has got a lot underrated. I don’t know if it’s been talked about that he just shot a career-high from 3pt at 43%. He also tied his career-best from inside the arc at 55%. He had his highest eFG% with 58%, as well as a career-high TS% with 60%
Can that carry on?
With all three, the biggest question is about talent and ability. It’s about how each is used, how each can be maximized, how they can play to their strengths, and how can each adapt or adjust their playstyle.
They all love to get their shots in the mid-range. They love working in similar spaces. That’s one of the reasons why the math wasn’t mathing in the playoffs, despite them all shooting efficiently.
Here are their frequency in the short mid-range and long mid-range:
Durant: 31% / 25%
Beal: 22% / 17%
Booker: 28% / 23%
Two of them have half of their shots within 4ft-3pt. Beal is at 40%. Someone has to adjust.
This is where Budenholzer will have to figure a lot out with the offense and how it’s fun. That’s going to be the most fun part of their season.
There’s also the question of Nurkic. I had some doubts about him being the starting big on a contender but it wasn’t as bad as I thought it’d be. They had a 113.3 defense with him on and that dropped to 116.5 without him.
Budenholzer had set up an elite defensive system in Milwaukee. Yes, the personnel matters a lot, but that’s still a coach that can build that kind of identity.
It’s going to be curious what else we can see from Nurkic, maybe being used in a different way.
They do finally have a point guard(two actually). Jones and Morris. Are they making that big of a difference? Is Jones even starting at this point? There’s no way you can put Beal on the bench.
So, what is the need here? Is it ball handling off the bench? He is a reliable ball handler who can make 3s, gets the offense organized, be smart with the ball with his low turnover, and that’s about it. How much of that will matter for the Suns going forward?
Because in the end, you will have four players locked in as the starters and closing.
That brings me to their offense. With their point guard conversation, their ball handling duties with Beal or Booker, which players will be used more on-ball, what kind of system they will have, and how much of their shot diet can they adjust. The whole being dependent on tough shot-making isn’t going to get them far — that hurt them in the series against Denver and last year vs Minnesota.
Finally, will they have anyone else that steps up? There is Allen, who had the best 3pt shooting season of his career. He shot 46% on over 8 3s per 100. It’s a simple role, but he was highly effective in it. Can his role be bigger? Will he shoot at the same rate? Can he add something more to his game?
Who else is in the discussion? Is it Okogie?, O’Neale? Bol? I have some questions about their frontcourt and wings, particularly ones that can guard up.
Can they remain a top defense? They also rely on Durant being that rim protector too. That’s going to drop with age. In 2023, Durant defended around 5 shots at the rim and the opponent shot 55%, almost 9% worse than expected. That went up to 58% and around 5% worse. That’s going to add up in their potential decline.
This will be a season with a lot of questions and things to figure out with their best players on both ends of the floor.
Predictions
48-53 win team
Floor(worst case scenario): Play in with drop off in their defense and health
Ceiling(best case scenario): Top 3 seed with the offense clicking as well as it could be
With their offense, I can see myself getting talked into that, especially with a new coach. There’s enough talent that it should work itself somehow.
It is a bit concerning that all of the on-ball play types for Durant have declined quite significantly. We’re going to have to see whether that was a blip or not.
Regardless of what the answer is, I don’t think it’s going to be reasonable to expect him to be used in that way. That will fall on Booker or Beal to be the primary initiator. The question will be if either of them is up to that.
I’m going out and saying yes. This will be Booker’s best season of his career. With the run in the Olympics, players usually come back with a different level of confidence and some take those jumps. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Booker as the clear top player on this team.
I also like Beal on the team still. He already had one of the more underrated seasons with what he was doing. If Budenholzer can tweak some of his game to be more analytically friendly.
That is the least of my concerns.
I do think they’re going to drop slightly on defense. With Booker, Durant, and Nurkic on, they would’ve ranked 10th with 114.1. I’m not sure how confident I am with that happening again.
This team has one of the most unpredictable possibilities. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did underachieve, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if they were gunning for the top seed in the West.
There’s a lot that can go right but that’s the same for them going bad.