Sacramento Kings 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Season & Off-season Recap
So, it would always be hard for the Sacramento Kings to replicate what they did in the previous season. There wouldn’t be the same high and those same feelings of finally making the playoffs since 2006. Last year, nothing else mattered. There was nothing that could make that whole season anything less than perfect. This was the same team that had 8 of their 16 seasons winning less than 30 games. The three previous seasons had them winning 30, 31, and 31.
It seemed like they finally made the jump after all these years. That was the first full year of Domantas Sabonis. De’Aaron Fox looked like he was taking a leap making his first All-NBA appearance. Keegan Murray was looking great as a rookie. They had a tough seven-game series against the Golden State Warriors, that could’ve easily been won.
It was looking like it was only going to be from up here. They had the league’s best offense. They seemed to have unlocked something with the movement and with Sabonis and Fox. With potential improvement and more continuity, it was bound to get better, right?
They ended up winning two games less, but they also dropped from +2.4 net rating(8th) to +0.8(19th). They dropped from the third seed to ninth. There were drop-offs individually. They went from the best offense to just around average. All of that resulted in them missing the playoffs after losing to the New Orleans Pelicans in the second play-in.
Come the off-season, they made a significant splash. It’s a risky splash, but a splash nonetheless. They went ahead and got DeMar DeRozan. That’s an upgrade. That gives them the secondary shot creator that is still pretty damn good at getting his and breaking down defenses. They managed to retain Malik Monk, who has proved to be vital off the bench, especially when there’s no Fox on the court. Finally, they also drafted Devin Carter 13th overall.
I’m not sure how much of this offseason addressed a lot of their needs, particularly on the defensive end, but they are better than they were last season. When you’re a play-in team, having more talent will generally help a lot. Players like DeRozan will give a lot to make them go from bad, or okay to decent or good. Though, I don’t see any of this addressing the need to make them great or at least a top-five team in the West.
Season Preview
So, what’s in store for the Kings?
How will the addition of DeRozan look?
Can they bounce back offensively?
Will they continue to improve defensively?
Can Fox have another All-NBA season?
Does Sabonis have another gear in him?
Carter’s rookie season
Murray’s third year and continued improvement
What’s the rest of the team like?
The biggest question is going to revolve around how they will make it work with DeRozan. I’ve had some words on that already and looked at which areas and how DeRozan can help here:
For the last three seasons with the Bulls, DeRozan has been a steady, consistent, scorer playing a lot of games. You knew what you were getting from him on a nightly basis.
He averaged 25.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per 75 possessions on 51.7% eFG and 58.9% TS, shooting 51.8% from 2pt and 33.6% from 3pt. With his impact metrics, it’s “okay”. There has been a decline and a lot of that has been on the defensive end.
That has been the case offensively in these two seasons, too:
It’s still in the 90th percentile. That’s still pretty good and it’s better than what the Kings may have had in a while. The best thing about DeRozan is the consistency and the games played because that’s where he has the highest value. That’s shown in the estimated wins: 11.6, 10.6, and 9.0 — all in the 93rd percentile or higher. There’s value in that through 82 games.
The first and main thing that DeRozan will provide is a significant boost in shot creation, foul drawing, rim pressure, and also being able to get a good high-percentage shot.
He had a .412 free throw rate with the Bulls, with it jumping to .452 last year. That would be the highest for the Kings. For comparison, Fox had .273, Monk had .230, and Sabonis had .389. They didn’t have anyone that drew fouls like that, which is a highly valuable and effective skill.
He’s also able to get a shot off at anywhere on the court:
66.6% within 4ft
51.5% 4-14ft
44.7% 14-3pt
That’s going to be needed, especially when it comes to self-creation. Only 30% of his rim shots are assisted 14% of his short mid-range, and 29% of his long mid-range. For comparison, with both Fox and Sabonis on the court, out of anyone with at least 100 2pt FGA, only Fox had a 50% assisted rate, and outside of Monk, everyone was over 60%.
There’s also this:
He’s a reliable playmaker for others. He’s not simply just a scorer. He’s not elite at this but it’s still good enough to lift offenses — the Bulls offense was +3.0, +1.2, and +7.1 better without him than on in these three years.
But we know what DeRozan is. There’s likely nothing that is going to change with his overall game, so how is this going to fit?
The offense between the Kings and the Bulls is vastly different.
The Bulls were dead last in transition frequency with 14.3% and the Kings were fifth with 19.1. The Bulls were a heavy pick-and-roll team being third with 19.4% of their offense but the Kings were 28th with 13.8%. The Bulls liked to go to the post 6.2% of the time and the Kings at 3.6%. The Kings blew everyone away with their handoff frequency at 10.2%(Knicks were second with 6.5%) but the Bulls were dead last at 2.4%. Similar to cutting, the Bulls were last with 4.4%, and the Kings near the top at 8.0%.
This is going to be a very, very different team for DeRozan to go to.
Almost 37% of his offense was as a ball handler in the PNR. Fox was first with 32% and Monk at 30%. He also had 15% of his offense in isolation, compared to Fox at 11%. There’s also him having 10% of his offense in the post! Sabonis was first with 14%. Only 3% of his offense was off handoffs, the lowest qualifying player was at 6%, even Fox was at 8%, and almost everyone else was in double digits.
Where is the significant adjustment going to come? Is it DeRozan adjusting to their faster pace? Or will the King’s offense be flipped?
In whatever way they’ll use DeRozan, it will help them with the high 3pt volume they go for. They already have three players that have over 3 assists for 3pt shots. They’re adding yet another one with DeRozan averaging 3.4 3pt assists per 100. That volume is likely going to go up.
Another encouraging point is the offense in the clutch, in the fourth, and when there’s just a need to create something when the defense steps up. The Bulls had the sixth best offense in the fourth at 117.7 compared to the Kings at 114.2.
But a lot of it will go down to how the top three players are used. Both Fox and DeRozan do a lot of damage off the dribble in around the mid-range. Sabonis needs the ball to be a hub. There’s going to be a lot of questions there.
This is DeRozan’s, Fox’s, and Sabonis’ tracking stats:
Touches: 64.4 / 81.4 / 91.5
Time of possession: 5.1 / 6.3 / 3,7
Average second: 4.73 / 4.68 / 2.45
Average dribble: 4.16 / 4.36 / 1.54
That’s three different players needing to get a lot of touches. It’s also two players that when they do have the ball, hold it or dribble a lot. I do like the idea of a two-man action with Sabonis, though.
The good news is that this team will have a lot more weapons, options, and better spacing to make whatever works with DeRozan better than what you could’ve done with the Bulls.
How will Mike Brown go about organizing the offense, they need to have a bounce back.
The reason for their success in 2023 is the fact that they had the best offense. Per Cleaning the Glass, that offense was 4.6 pts better than average. That’s why it didn’t matter if their defense wasn’t to a good standard when their offense carried them through. Now, that defense(though improved) will matter if the offense is merely good. This year, they were only 1.3 pts better than average. That’s a significant difference.
A lot of their shot profiles and accuracy are relatively the same. There’s not much difference there for them. The shot distribution, the efficiency, the rebounding, and the turnovers are all similar. Yet, with both Sabonis and Fox on, they had a 118.9 offense compared to 123.7 last year. If they want to have any kind of success, they need to be at least top 7 and they need to dominate with their two best players on.
Moving on to a potential cause for this is Fox having a worse season. He had himself a career year across the board. Looking at some of the stats he put up that year is wild, especially when looking at this year now.
Almost everything has gone down for him when it comes to his scoring. The volume is still there but the efficiency dropped off:
eFG: 55.7% → 53.4%
TS: 59.9% → 56.7%
2pt: 58.4% → 52.2%
3pt: 32.4% → 36.9%
Rim: 76.5% → 67.2%
Short mid-range: 53.9% → 49.5%
Long mid-range: 44.7% → 38.7%
Pull up 2pt: 45.9% → 42.7%
Outside of the 3-point shot, everything has gone down. That’s going to matter, especially when the way he got his points changed too. With the improved shot, he went from 27% of his shots being 3s to 37%. But that also means less going to the rim(which he also shot almost 10% worse), which means fewer free throws, and fewer drives. Last year, he was unstoppable with the counters and pull-up jumpers on top of the absurd efficiency at the rim. There’s nothing else that you can do at that point.
All of this showed up across the playtypes too:
Isolation(FG%, eFG, PPP): 52% / 54% / 1.08 → 43% / 48% / 1.01
Transition: 60% / 63% / 1.2 → 54% / 62% / 1.16
PNR: 51% / 54% / 1.02 → 48% / 52% / 0.97
Handoff: 47% / 54% / 1.08 → 38% / 46% / 0.93
Now, the question will be how much of that season was just an outlier or if he can go back to similar levels. That’s the difference between being a top 15 caliber player vs a top 25-30 and near the top, those differences matter.
There’s also Sabonis that needs to be talked about! Similar to DeRozan, I think we know what we can expect from him at this point. He’s been an All-Star three times, and All-NBA the last two seasons. With the Kings, he’s been highly efficient, used as a hub, averaging almost a triple-double, and plays almost every game(missed just three).
That consistency and reliability are again highly valuable through 82 games. He did deserve his All-NBA achievements.
Some of his shot profile stats stood out:
69% on 10 shots at the rim per 100(57% frequency) with 60% being assisted
49% on 5 shots in the short mid-range(29%) with 57% assisted
41% on 1 in the long mid-range(5%) with 91% being assisted
He’s getting a lot of shots at the rim. He can get you a shot in the paint. He shoots 62% within 14ft or 63% within 10ft. That’s over 1.2 points per shot anywhere near the paint.
Then you add that he’s dominating the touches. He’s tied with Luka Doncic for second place behind Nikola Jokic at 91. He’s a Jokic lite when it comes to being a hub. He’s also second in passes made with 71. He’s third in assists for 3pt per 100.
But I wonder is there anything next for him? He’s been All-NBA, but can he push ahead to an upper tier? Despite making the teams, I don’t think I’ve seen anyone make a case that he is a top-15 player. He is 28, so there’s still time for him to add things to his game and address any weaknesses.
That needs to be the biggest question for him. Can he add something to his game or improve areas on either end to push up a bit further? He already provides a solid floor, but can he make the team even better?
A lot of that needs to be on the defensive end. That’s the main point for him and the team. That’s also the biggest question that will decide this season.
The Kings in 2023 were 25th on defense. That jumped to 18th this year. That jump was significant enough to offset the drop-off in the offense but it’s still not on a good enough level.
On the bright side, with Fox, Sabonis, and Murray, they did have a 114.5 defense, which would rank 12th. That’s another slight jump. These slight jumps on defense combined with a good enough offense can be the difference maker between a play-in team and a guaranteed spot.
Another question is how will they look defensively adding DeRozan to it. That’s going to change things because you’re not adding a great defender. You’re not adding an okay defender.
What’s the closing lineup going to be that makes sense on both ends? Will those five be able to get stops? Who defends the best players? DeRozan? Murray? Monk? Who else is on the team that can be relied on defensively? Keon Ellis is one.
Then there are questions for the rest of the team.
Monk was great for them in the sixth-man role. Unfortunately, he got injured near the end. Without Fox but with Monk on, the Kings had a 117.0 offense and he averaged 24.7 points per 75 on 53% eFG and 56% TS with 30% usage. Take Monk off, and that offense dropped to 108.5. He did a great job running the unit.
One fun stat is he averaged around 17 drives per 36 and passed it out on 53% of the time. He assisted on 16% of the time! His drive and kicks did a lot of damage.
It was a need to bring him back.
How do we feel about Kevin Huerter? He had a great season last year shooting 40% on over 11 3s per 100, but that dropped to 36% this year. He’s not doing much else, though. He’s efficient from 2pt too! but it’s low volume and also doesn’t get to the line. He’s not a plus defender(though I did like some of it in the playoffs last year). He’s not the kind of player that I see as a game changer or anything or even a lock as a starter.
I wonder if there are potential moves around that position. Can there be a potential upgrade? He is only 26, though, it feels like he’s almost in his 30s.
What kind of jump can we expect from Murray? He upped his scoring, his usage, his rebounding, his assists, and his free throws. He had a considerable drop off with his shooting going from 41% to 36%. That played a big part in his dip in efficiency.
On the other hand, he almost doubled his 2pt volume and improved his efficiency from 53% to 56%. He added more versatility. He had a drop off in 3pt rate but that is a good trade off, especially when he significantly improved everywhere inside:
Rim: 63% → 71%
Short mid-range: 39% → 52%
Long mid-range: 32% → 39%
That’s impressive. Although, all of it is highly assisted. He’s not creating those shots for himself, but is making himself more versatile offensively, even if it’s off-ball. Turning that 39% paint shot to over 52% is game changing.
There’s also a new rookie, Carter! An older rookie at 22 years old, who Sam Vecenie says is an “awesome” defender who can switch and be a point of attack defender. That should help a lot!
Finally, I do wonder if there’s any potential moves that could be made to shake things up at certain points to address their defense. With DeRozan there, there might be some other flexibility in other areas. Maybe he provides different options on offense, that makes it easier to shake things up.
Predictions
43-47 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): Play in team
Ceiling(best case scenario): 5th seed
So, I do think overall they got better. Have they set themselves up to be in a guaranteed playoff tier? I don’t think so.
But at the same time, that probably doesn’t matter for the team or ownership. They don’t need to be in that tier. I wouldn’t be surprised if their goals are exceeded simply because they’re a consistent playoff team that can make the second round or conference finals if things go right.
The move for DeRozan and the potential reward from that, I think is enough to push them above the bottom tier of the play-in teams to knocking for that sixth seed where it all depends on health and other teams.
I think I talked myself into the whole DeRozan-Sabonis-Fox trio. The offense was already plateauing this year(with Fox’s drop off contributing), so the change that could happen because of DeRozan’s game can be significantly helpful. He gives them another boost that not even Fox gives you. There’s another level of a safety net with him. That also fixes the non-Fox minutes(Kings were 5.1pts worse on offense when he sat).
I think with that potential improvement on offense, they could come out to be a top 10 offensive team and offset whatever deficiencies they have on the other end. But their defensive concerns is what makes me hold back on them.
I don’t know if Fox is going to bounce back to what he did the previous year, but I still hope for some improvement and maybe adding something new. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a very different Fox, now that he has a very reliable ball-handler next to him.
Overall, this team is likely going to have the same ceiling and may have a season closer to 2023 than 2024. A good, decent team that’s not great enough to do any damage.