Should the Heat trade for Fox?
Some quick thoughts on why the Heat shouldn't go for Fox
So, some big potential news broke out yesterday and of course, a lot of it sparked discussions with Heat fans. Whenever there is a potential star on the block, there’s 100% going to be rumours involving the Heat maybe getting them.
And with this somewhat semi-realistic hypothetical surrounding the Heat, I wanted to get thoughts on whether they should consider trading for De’Aaron Fox.
The short answer? No, they shouldn’t. They definitely shouldn’t considering he’s not going to come cheap, both in terms of the package trading for him and the potential extension that you will have to give him.
My first reluctance comes from the fact that this core isn’t at the stage where you push your chips in to look to compete. There’s no need to trade any remaining assets, which will lock you in further from trading any picks until all is resolved, for a player that either won’t put you in a legitimate chance to compete or won’t put you on track for it.
All of this comes down to me not thinking that a team with Fox, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo as your top three players and top most expensive players is a core that you could win with.
Is it a better team than now? Depending on the package, probably yeah. Would they be competing for a top-5 seed? Probably yeah, too. But at the same time, you’re also locking yourself into that position. The position of a good team but not great that will still need a lot to get over the hump. At the same time, you probably have already used many of the assets to acquire Fox in the first place.
I joke that they’d simply become the defensive version of the Sacramento Kings but would be worse offensively than the Kings were. They’d have similar floor and ceiling in the regular season and even in the East, I believe they’d have the same kind of chances at competing.
This team and this core are still plenty of moves and player development away from competing. It’s not a Fox player away this year or next year. And when it comes to the core going forward, the ages and the potential contracts matter just as much.
Some may bring up that this could feel similar to what the Heat did with the Butler trade. They had somewhat of a core in 2019(plus a few coming into the 2020 season) and that worked out well.
Except, I wouldn’t have Fox as a Butler calibre player or the potential to be that in the playoffs. That factor alone changes everything. You need to have a player that can have a reasonable ceiling of a top 10 calibre player. I’m not sure we’ve seen any of that from Fox to think he can be the 1A on a contending team.
If he’s not, then it’s not the end of the world right away. This just means the quality of the supporting cast needs to be higher and deeper.
This is where the contracts come in. But this is what it was in 2020:
Then this is what it was in 2022(another deep run):
And in 2023(another finals run):
Fox and Butler will be earning Butler level money soon and Herro is also up for extension after this season that will kick in the third season. That puts little to no margin of error to building out the rest of the team, which will need more help.
The way things worked out in the Butler era was pretty damn good. Firstly, it didn’t take a lot to acquire Butler in the first place. You didn’t give up any of the potential young core or other needed players that were used in the Iguodala/Crowder trade. Dragic, who was their best player in the bubble at times, was earning almost Robinson’s money. Again, that gives you more margin of error.
A lot of the good, contending teams do happen when it times well with the contracts. That matters in building out your team. Of course, the better firepower at top means more margin of error and less help needed.
I just don’t see that with that trio, even if you also somehow kept both Jovic and Ware. Because even that core of:
Bam Adebayo: 27 years old(28 in July)
De’Aaron Fox: 27(28 in December)
Tyler Herro: 25(26 in January)
Nikola Jovic: 21(22 in June)
Kel’el Ware: 20(21 in April)
The ages aren’t the issue here. That is and would be a nice core if you turn back the time on some of the contracts.
But in terms of building out a team that can potentially compete or be in the position to make other moves to get closer, that’s where the core doesn’t do it. It will leave them in pretty much the same spot as they are in now, except with an even worse chance at competing because they won’t have playoff Jimmy.
So, what’s the goal here? Just to be competitive for a round or two? Unless you do actually think that the group above can and will legitimately compete throughout their deal?
I’m just out on the idea that’s a championship-level core. And if a move doesn’t bring you closer to that, the goal should be to just continue to retool, rebuild, and keep the flexibility.
I am all pro standing pat without wasting any assets. This should be the period of acquiring assets and rounding out the core(whilst staying competitive, because that’s how the Heat do things). This core might not even be the one that you do look to win with. Some of these players might be the pieces that you use to acquire a top 10-15 player in the near future.
But cashing in some of those chips for Fox just feels like staying and remaining mid for the sake of trying to be competitive. This isn’t the player, nor the time to be cashing in to improve now. There’s no need to rush this.