The Culture Report: 10 game losing streak, Herro’s extension & why can’t everyone have good games together
Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on.
A quick note but until the end of the regular season, the Culture Report will be adjusted to be a lot different from it was where it’s not focusing much on Xs and Os and individual games, but serving as some quick discussions on the team in general and various topics that arise.
Heat Check
So, the Heat have lost 10 in a row. Hmm.
I have been on the train that this team hasn’t been good but even I am shocked that it reached this point. The Heat are now one of five teams to have at least a 10 game losing streak — Wizards, Hornets, Raptors, Jazz, and Pelicans. The difference is that those are either very bad and tanking teams or ones that have dealt with so much injury.
This is a team that has all of the top guys playing most of the games. On this 10 game losing streak, Adebayo, Mitchell, Duncan played every game. Herro, Jaquez, and Highsmith missed one. Ware, Larsson, Rozier, and Wiggins all played at least six(with two of the players just simply getting DNPs). That’s having most of your starting level players for at least eight games.
I wasn’t expecting this, especially when you consider the competition! The Bulls, Hornets, Grizzlies(without Morant), and Knicks(without Brunson).
A lot of the issues just come back to the offensive side:
One. One game that had at least an average offense. They had four games not cracking 100! Even the defensive side isn’t something to gloss over either, that’s been bad to any standard, too.
In this span, they have a -10.6 net rating with a 105.9 ORTG and 116.5 DRTG. That would rank 27th, 30th, and 19th in that span. Obviously, this is just a 10 game sample, but for the year, that offense would be almost a whole point worse than the Wizards. That’s impressive.
The biggest issue has been their finishing and closing games. This is their ratings by quarter:
1st: 117.8 / 114.5 / +3.2
2nd: 102.8 / 106.0 / -3.2
3rd: 102.4 / 120.0 / -17.6
4th: 95.7 / 123.6 / -27.9
There’s also a very simple explanation for this. I keep seeing people be shocked or surprised why they are this bad when it all just comes down to your top players not being good enough.
Herro, in this stretch, is averaging 19.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists on 51.3% eFG and 54.0% TS, whilst shooting 30.8% from 3pt. Bam is at 19.9 points, 8.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists on 53.0% eFG and 58.6% TS.
With those two on, the Heat are -8.9 in 247 minutes with a 105.7 ORTG. The team is also shooting 32.6% from 3pt. On that note, the Heat are also shooting 33.3% on wide open 3s, which would be 29th in that span and for the full season. You’re going to have a tough time winning if everyone is shooting poorly.
I don’t even know what could possibly be the fix. Although I am in favour of getting the best lottery odds, I don’t know how good it is to just end the season on that kind of a bad note. Unless, that would warrant a lot more changes in the off-season?
But this has been a mess. Them losing that badly makes any kind of possibility to look to make the playoffs to get another round of experience even less appealing. I can’t even talk myself into thinking like they’re showing something, so let’s ride it out. That would be similar to the 2016-17 season.
Now, it just feels like they’re in a way worse because it’s been that bad. There’s also only around a dozen game left, which isn’t that enough to change anything. Even if they do bounce back, what does that do at this point?
Honestly, with how it all turned around, this is just a lost season at this point for me. All this did is push towards the thinking that this whole team top to bottom needs to be addressed and overhauled. Changes need to happen. Each player needs to be look at closely. And there needs to be some big conversation around moving forward.
Had they gone .500 all the way through and still somehow competed, that would’ve pushed back some of those feelings for them and it would be easier to talk yourself into.
Still, regardless of what could happen in the off-season, I am still interested to see how they will look to respond in general because realistically, the top guys will likely stay for the next year.
Outside of that, I don’t see anything in this season that is going to change anything going forward. Whether they win more games now or lose and whether they makes playoffs or not, none of that really should change the view of this team and the core.
I’d honestly just be looking to press sim to the end of the season with this team right now.
But some other news, we have seen more Jaquez being involved in the offense. In the last three games, his touches have gone up to fourth on the team with ~45 and ~3 time of possession. I like that they went ahead and did this because what’s the harm in pushing more reps for young players. At the same time, Jaquez hasn’t been doing well in that role.
He’s shooting 42.9% from 2pt and is just 2/8 from 3pt in his last five games. The decision making on some of the drives and shot selection have been wild. There have been consecutive possessions with him attacking recklessly and throwing something up, whether a shot in traffic or a bad turnover.
That has been a recurring issue and it’s kind of concerning.
I have also liked some of the confidence from Ware. I mentioned in previous reports that I have been a fan of his passing when given the opportunity. That continues to happen. He is making better reads with some of his passing. Yes, he has only two assists in five games, but not all passes have led to makes or even shots. The decision making on some of them have been getting better.
Another interesting development is him shooting 40/79 within 4-14ft. We know he’s going to be a play finisher and get all of the easy shots at the rim — he is shooting 72% at the rim with almost 49% of his shots there, where he has a 3.98ft average 2pt shot.
But it’s that increased range that is showing up more. He’s finishing more around the paint and with good accuracy. 50% in that area with around 22% of his shots there. Post ASB, that has gone up to 57%!
As it’s been talked about recently because it only gets worse and worse, but who hasn’t been showing up lately is Herro. His numbers continue to drop each game. He’s leading the team in USG% post ASB but has only 54.4% TS, whilst shooting 30.2% from 3pt.
Now, the accuracy is one thing, but his 3pt rate has been slowly decreasing, which is quite concerning, given that this is his most important part of his game.
Here’s his 3pt rate in each month:
October(4 games): 56.1%
November(13 games): 55.8%
December(13 games): 53.5%
January(15 games): 55.0%
February(11 games): 49.3%
March(11 games): 35.8%
This would be the second lowest month in his career(December in 2022 being the lowest). Against the Rockets, he had ONE. ONE single 3pt attempt. The last time that happened, where he at least played 10 minutes, was December 26th, 2021 against the Magic where he played 19:23 minutes.
His shot profile has been changing too a lot over the months:
He has been slowly getting back to that pull up 2pt a lot more and has completely went away from the pull up 3pt. That does make sense with his struggles, but I do wonder how much of that is also the defense looking to take that shot away in the first place.
On the opposite, we do also have one of the best shooters too.
Amongst 105 players with at least 150 pull ups, Duncan is first with 59.6% eFG. His pull up is worth 1.19 points per shot! And a lot of that is because of the 3pt shooting. Amongst 42 players with at least 150 PU 3pt, he’s second at 41.4%
Now, this isn’t specifically 3pt shooting, but still insane. His eFG on:
Transition: 71.3%
PNR: 57.7%
Spot up: 56.3%
Handoff: 52.2%
Off-screen: 49.3%
In almost all main shooting playtypes, he’s over 50% per shot.
There is also this tidbit from Couper Moorhead, in his notebook from earlier in the week:
Duncan is, quite literally, a generational shooter at this point. He currently holds the NBA record for most 3s per 100 possessions in a career at 13.6 but he’s also shooting 39.6%. Truly insane stuff.
Now, heading into this week, the Heat have the Hornets, Warriors, Hawks, and 76ers. I can’t tell you if they will go 0-4 or 4-0. This team hasn’t been great but it’s a strange season.
But that doesn’t really matter because right now they are also currently eighth in the lottery.
Herro’s potential extension
This has become a topic too recently. It has been reported that the Heat could offer a 3 year, 150m extension as soon as October 1st but could get a 4 year, 207m extension if they wait until the 2026 off-season.
Whatever the scenario, I am not a fan.
I don’t believe paying him in general would be a good, smart decision for whatever the direction of the team is. Whether it’s rebuilding, retooling, hunting for whales, staying put and being competitive, or any other possible scenario, I don’t see a single one that would have be extended.
Even going with the most realistic option of just the Heat looking to retool and stay competitive, as they hunt for the next start to get whether through trade or free agency, that would still be something I wouldn’t consider.
I don’t see a world where you can build a contender or be in a good position to build out a team in the near future if Herro takes up roughly 25% of the cap and is one of your top three most paid players. That is, of course, related more to his ability, his style, and potential fit going forward.
Not only that, I also honestly don’t see him as a max player on a good team — though that does require context and each situation is different. I could see teams like the Magic, Pistons, Spurs or any other young team paying him that to get better. Each situation is different.
But with the Heat, this will be locking yourself into mediocrity. They aren’t a piece or two away from being back in contention. They don’t have any other star players on good contracts. They have more bad contracts than good. Adding another big contract to this is just making the matters worse.
I’d also argue that if you are looking to pay and extend someone, you must be sure of a couple of things, such as either be so high on the potential that it will be worth it in the future or so sure about fit if you were to get better players.
There are questions with both when it comes to Herro. I’m not high on his upside and potential and everything about him and better players is all just in theory. This isn’t the same as extending someone like White. How Herro looks on a good, contending team is still all up in the air. Those are factors that probably should mean you don’t extend a guy.
With the team in general, they should also be looking to make changes and no one should be seen as part of the core at this point. There’s no benefit in locking yourself into this at this specific moment.
Top 3 players can’t have good games together
I came across a tweet that talked about Adebayo, Herro, and Wiggins having great games but they never seem to have great games at the same time.
That makes sense to me because of how each of those players get their offense in general and how they work in those actions.
All three players get a lot of their offense through on-ball(self creating) play types such as PNR, handoffs, isolation, or post ups.
Here are those players and their possession per game in
Herro: 1.3 ISO + 7.6 PNR + 2.3 handoff
Bam: 2.1 ISO + 0.5 PNR + 2.4 post
Wiggins: 1.3 ISO + 5.5 PNR + 1.4 post + 1.9 handoff
That is 11.2 for Herro, 5.0 for Adebayo, and 10.1 for Wiggins.
For both Adebayo and Wiggins, it’s also how they go about it in those actions. They are both players that rely on jump shots in isolation or post ups. Even with Bam’s rolls, they mostly end on jumpers or turn into isolation after he catches the ball.
When Adebayo gets cooking, it’s all of those mid-range shots coming up. That’s almost the same with Wiggins. How is Herro meant to get his when that happens? Same goes the other way with Herro having most of his offense in the PNR. None of the players have a significant part of their offense coming in off-ball actions that could come in tangent with others.
All three of them are more scoring oriented, too. That plays a big part because even if they get theirs in those actions, they don’t do much creating for others. It’s a lot more score first mentality.
And even with their scoring, it doesn’t open much for anyone else. They are all jumpshot heavy, too.
How are players meant to have equally good games when they all require similar set ups to get their and they end up getting theirs in similar ways too. Every time Wiggins looks to cook in a PNR going for those pull ups also means that’s less possessions for Herro to do the same.
The Heat need more role players on offense. Players that can and want to buy in getting theirs without the ball.