The Culture Report: 2 Dominant Offensive Games, Herro's 3pt Shooting & Thoughts on Pre-Jimmy Teams
Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. Following that is a Heat Check to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, where I discuss the current state of the team and any trends & worthy topics to briefly go through. Before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.
What a week to start post All-Star. It was a roller-coaster with two ugly losses against the Bucks and the Hawks. One was blowing leads in the fourth and the other was not cracking 90 in 2025. No problem, the Heat will just flip the switch & have two of their best offensive games in the season against the Hawks and the Pacers to get those two wins. I touch on some thoughts on why the pre-Jimmy teams have been better offensively and Herro’s 3-point shooting.
113-120 LOSS vs Milwaukee Bucks
86-98 LOSS vs Atlanta Hawks
131-109 WIN vs Atlanta Hawks
125-120 WIN vs Indiana Pacers
Heat check — Herro’s 3pt shooting, loving Mitchell’s pick up
Why are the Heat worse than pre-Jimmy teams?
What’s Been Heating Up
We’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the game. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.
Stats for the week:
Offensive Rating: 121.3
Defensive Rating: 117.8
eFG%: 57.8 vs 58.7
TOV%: 16.3 vs 14.3
ORB%: 29.7 vs 26.3
Free throw rate: 23.5 vs 13.2
Players stats:
113-120 LOSS vs Milwaukee Bucks
Another game that was lost in the fourth. Once again, the Heat came out pretty strong and had a considerable lead throughout the game and all of that came crashing down in the second half that led to a collapse in the fourth.
They started off by finishing the first quarter going up 37-23. That was quite a balanced attack to start the game with almost everyone scoring and three players with at least three field goals made. It was their rim scoring that popped early in the game by going 7/8 at the rim — a couple of alley-oops and a few early offense drives.
The Bucks, on the other hand, had some questionable shot selection and it felt like they were settling on jump shots far too much, as they went 3/13 from 3pt. But outside of that initial quarter, the Bucks offense was rolling. They had a 92.0 ORTG in the first quarter but following that, it was 128.0, 130.4, and 145.8.
Their offense was a whole bunch of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard waking up. They finished with 51 points on 29/35 shooting combined with 15 assists. It was too easy for them.
Giannis did his usual thing, though to start the game he was hunting those pull up jumpers. It wasn’t until after the first quarter that all of his made shots came at the rim. His first three were from 20ft, 25ft, and 15ft. In the next eight makes, seven of them came within 1ft.
With Lillard, it was that damn pick and roll. He had 5/12 from 3pt and that pull-up against drop had them scrambling on how to stop it. They changed their coverage to icing the PNRs and it still didn’t work.
They also got plenty of help from both Gary Trent Jr and Kevin Porter Jr with their 27 points on 9/16 shooting. They had some timely buckets, especially Porter Jr in the fourth without Lillard.
Fortunately, the Heat were still able to throw punches through the next two quarters to keep them afloat. They had solid production offensively from both Ware and Wiggins in the second or the third quarter. Adebayo was contributing in each quarter giving you half a dozen in each. He finished with 24 points on 8/14 2pt, 2/2 3pt, and 2/3 ft. It was just consistency through three quarters by a combination of everyone.
But it was, once again, the fourth that had a lot of the issues — they got outscored 20-35. My timeline again has been filled with takes on Spoelstra and his rotations for playing Rozier for just over two minutes.
Offensively the start with both Herro and Adebayo on the bench was a choice. That resulted in two turnovers, a bad layup from Rozier and one make from Wiggins before Adebayo checked in at 10:21. The Bucks looked to make a run for eight points, mainly thanks to Porter Jr.
Even once the starters checked in relatively early at 9:20, it was still not a good result. A whole bunch of tough shots are being taken. No flow on offense at all. Herro had 10 shots in the quarter and took some questionable shots.
They still had a chance in the clutch. It was a tie game at 109-109 thanks to a very deep 3pt from Herro. But that followed three straight makes for the Bucks and just like that it was a seven-point game.
We also did have a 40-point game from Herro. He finished with 40 points on 9/15 2pt, 3/12 3pt, and 13/14 ft with 11 assists:
I do like that efficiency from inside the arc. If the shots aren’t falling, then he has been able to get so many good looks inside. He had five shots at the rim! Having 11 assists, almost all of them were actual solid reads that he made as the ball handler was also encouraging to see.
Overall, this was another better team just stepping up offensively on their home court, so it’s not much to overanalyze here, but some of the process and the way shots are put up or given up, is something that shouldn’t happen.
86-98 LOSS vs Atlanta Hawks
Man, the Heat are testing me. Losing to the Bucks, even in the way did is one thing. Had they lost to the Hawks with a score of 120-128 would’ve also been one thing. But adding another loss to the season where you don’t crack 90 is something — they have five games with under 90 points.
At this point, I’m not even surprised. This is pure Heat basketball.
This game certainly was made a lot worse considering they shot 7/40 from 3pt. There’s not a single team in the league that would look missing so many 3s. Making 3s, regardless of volume, is almost a necessity to win games. They took 40 3s out of 84 shots. Even if it was only 20 of them that were good, high-quality, wide-open looks generated by pressuring the defense, they made almost none. You need some of the looks to fall down.
This kind of poor shooting night was made worse when all your shooters couldn’t do anything. Herro, Robinson, and Burks combined for 2/22. Maybe some shots were forced. Maybe some shots were put up too early here and there. Maybe not all of them came from a good process. But at some point, you have to you just have to make some shots.
A lot of it started with a very poor and quiet night from Herro, finishing with 11 points on 4/10 2pt, 0/9 3pt, and 3/3 ft with 3 assists and 4 turnovers. I was surprised to see how quiet it was with him as he didn’t seem to have the ball in his hands in the same way he had before. It felt more like he was stashed away somewhere. Even with that, the shot selection also stood out in a bad way. When 3s aren’t falling, he will take tougher 3s and when that is not working, he will tend to go back to the pull jumper from 2pt and that was also not falling.
He wasn’t the only one that didn’t have anything going. Adebayo finished with only 14 points on 5/11 2pt, 0/2 3pt, and 4/4 ft with 1 assist and 4 turnovers. He shot 3/6 at the rim with a bunch of his layups and drives looking out of control.
The only kind of positive offensive player that something going was Wiggins, who finished with 23 points on 2/5 2pt, 4/9 3pt, and 7/7 ft with also 1 assist and 3 turnovers. And even with his game, there was a sense of being trigger-happy for a quick pull-up 3pt, but it did go in. There were those downhill drives that got him to the line. But it still wouldn’t be something that made a big difference.
This was just a bad offensive game. A whole bunch of turnovers, with 18.9% of their possessions ending in a turnover. And the open looks made everything a lot worse than it is. It was also closer than it looked because of the 25 free throws.
As for the other end, you might see that this wasn’t bad defensively. Trae Young only finished with 11 points on poor shooting, 4/7 2pt, 0/7 3pt, and 3/3 ft but did end up with 14 assists. The Hawks also didn’t shoot well, only going 9/35. That’s six points fewer than the Heat off 3s made. But they did makeup that with 58 points in the paint, that’s where the defense lacked.
That’s also not mentioning their clutch defense where it was hunting Herro over and over again:
That’s literally what the offense was for the Hawks possession after possession.
Hopefully, they can bounce back from this kind of game.
131-109 WIN vs Atlanta Hawks
What a bounce-back win. This felt like a statement. This was the complete opposite of what happened two days earlier and it’s quite literally as opposite as you can get. The Heat had a 90.5 ORTG(3rd percentile) and a 37.2% eFG(0th) but they flipped the switch and somehow it was 142.4(99th) and 75.3%(100th) in this game.
The offense was humming. It was flowing. Everyone was vibing and having fun. Everyone who played at least 10 minutes scored in double digits. Four players(Adebayo, Herro, Mitchell, and Robinson) all had 20 or more. As a team, they shot 23/42 from 3pt(54.8%). Four players had at least four 3s.
A lot of the offense has looked similar to what they were doing the other night, but when shots fall down, everything gets amplified. Teams guard you differently. You put a different kind of fear in the defense when you start to make a few 3s in a row. That’s what opened up the rest of the offense and got them easier looks that they didn’t have the previous night.
With it being such a balanced attack, it’s impossible to pinpoint to any one single player. Everyone had their share of making runs at different points in time, which just means that I have to highlight everyone.
It starts off with the shooters. Herro and Robinson led the team with 24 points each on 16/32 shooting, including 10/21 from 3pt, whilst adding 16 assists. Herro did his damage in bursts throughout the game with some timely shots from 3pt, getting to the line(went 6/7), and moving the ball to lead the team in assists.
Robinson had his own quarter when he went off for 14 points in the second on 5/7 shooting. A whole bunch of offense revolving around him running around and making every shot he took or making the right if it wasn’t available.
Mitchell and Highsmith were also huge in the game, as the role players that did their job. They were a huge spark when it came to the 3s made. They combined for 9/10 — lol. Adebayo had a quiet 20 points on 9/12 shooting. Wiggins was involved in starting the game and then throughout had bursts of getting to the line when needed, as he finished with 8/10 ft.
Here are just some other random highlights of their uber-charged offense:
Defensively, it could’ve been better. Until around late in the third, it was beginning to look like it was going to be a 131-130 kind of game. It was turning out who would get a stop first. The Hawks didn’t have the shooting that the Heat had for the most part, but they also again made up for it by getting to the paint at a high volume and converting everything — they had 54 points in the paint.
Before the fourth quarter, the Hawks had a 129.2 ORTG with a 68.8% TS. This really was a shooting match between the two. The Heat simply erupted for much more. In that same span, they had a 144.6 ORTG with 77.9% TS. But all of that damage came in the first half. That’s when they had a 135.4 ORTG. In the fourth, it dropped all the way to 76.2.
I did like the defensive energy and intensity in the second half a lot more. Everything before that was, honestly, abysmal at times with too many errors and lapses. That was cleaned up later.
That’s why, once the Heat took control late in the third, where it could’ve still been a winnable game for the Hawks, the defense mattered a lot more and prevented the Hawks from making a run.
Overall, this was a needed game to get some confidence boost.
125-120 WIN vs Indiana Pacers
Damn. Second game in a row that the Heat came out to play on the offensive end. It’s been since December when the Heat scored at least 120 points in two consecutive games. Not only did they come out offensively, they got the win!
It did feel at times that the Pacers were going to make a run but each time just kept answering. That was kind of an issue, though. They have been scoring well, but so has the opponent — the Heat, again, just scored better, which is such a weird thing to write.
Looking at the ORTG and DRTG by quarter, it was the opposite of a mud-season game:
ORTG: 138.1 → 169.6 → 111.5 → 121.7
DRTG: 166.7 → 141.7 → 88.5 → 127.3
Similarly to the Hawks game, it all starts with the 3s where they went 17/32(53.1%). The volume wasn’t as high, only 38% 3pt rate, which is surprising. In contrast to the Hawks game, this wasn’t simply 3s going in at a high volume. The Heat still ended up with 54 points in the paint(including 13/17 at the rim) and 18 second-chance points. This was an all-around offensive attack both inside and out.
Herro led the team with 29 points on 8/15 2pt, 3/10 3pt, and 4/5 ft with 7 assists. It was not the most efficient night for him, as he only finished with 53% TS and took by far the most shots on the team with 25.
The efficiency and the high scoring came from everyone else contributing. In addition to Herro, five other players scored in double digits. Their offense is again through strengths in numbers.
Robinson had 20 points on 8/10 shooting with 5 assists. Adebayo with a near triple-double at 18/7/7 on 8/14 shooting. Burks had a bounce-back game playing over 20 minutes and finishing with 13 points on 5/9 shooting. Jaquez Jr this time contributed with 11 points on perfect 4/4 shooting.
But the defense. Sigh. The Pacers also had a 3-point shooting in their favor. They shot 21/39(53.8%). Although they struggled immensely shooting at the rim, going 14/25.
Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner cooked. This wasn’t some ordinary cooking. They couldn’t miss. They combined for 58 points on 20/33 shooting, including 13/20 3pt. Insane level of 3pt shot-making:
Those two alone almost combined for half of the team’s points and it was basically the whole offense. Haliburton had stretches getting himself going, particularly with his stepback, as he finished with 19 points on 8/15 shooting and 10 assists.
After a game defending the transition against the Hawks, the Heat went back to old patterns and gave up 17 fastbreak points.
Overall, none of this had anything to do with defense. Even in the fourth quarter down the stretch, it was a game of who’s going to miss first. The Heat had a 106-97 point lead with 8:16 left and by 5:50 it was 110-108 Pacers. It was a back-and-forth, but eventually, Robinson made a run of his own, Mitchell made a clutch 3pt to give the lead, and Adebayo sealed it with a steal.
This was a great win.
Things that caught my eye
Additional thoughts, stats & takeaways from these games only. All links are clips on Twitter
Herro went to the line for 14 free throws. Six of them did come from being in the bonus on personal fouls, but there were still a handful of solid foul drawing skill that he has shown recently. He’s been going for those rip through moves
Wiggins had a poor night scoring. 20 points on 20 shots with also 4 turnovers to 4 assists. He had a lot of the offense going through him in the post
It is quite questionable to see any of Highsmith, Burks, Jaquez, or Larsson not get any minutes
Heat had 60 points in the paint. That’s impressive. They shot 30/46. Both the volume and efficiency stands out a lot, especially against this team
It was surprising to see that this time they matched Lopez with Adebayo more instead of Ware like they did last time
Spacing issues are becoming a concern with Wiggins, Ware, and Adebayo on the court. Lopez was really dropping back to sit in the paint and anyone guarding the other two was helping off in the paint and at the nail
The spacing issues became more apparent against the Hawks, too, with Niang helping off Ware or Jaquez. This was one of the spacing issues with Ware/Adebayo.
Rozier with a cool 2 points on 4 shots against the Bucks
Rozier didn’t play against the Hawks in either game! It looks like Spoelstra has fully leaned into that decision. But he was back against the Pacers — he didn’t look great and had some questionable shots
Jaquez Jr played against the Hawks, but that wasn’t an encouraging sign at all. He played under 10 minutes and did look quite bad, particularly on the defensive end. This was a similar outing in the second game, too. Another short burst of only ~8 minutes
That changed from Jaquez against the Pacers where he did finally get some more playing time and went perfect 4/4, but he had to leave the game early with a lower-body injury
The transition defense against the Hawks was one of the worst and had Spoelstra dancing furiously after calling timeouts. THIS. This had to have been the biggest focus on their day off. The Hawks only had two points on a fastbreak. There weren’t any easy shots or players not coming back to defend. Every easy advantage they had in the first game disappeared. Unfortunately, that didn’t last long and it hurt them against the Pacers
The Heat shot 11/23 at the rim against the Hawks in the first game and followed that with 12/13 in the next
Anderson somehow ended up going to the line for 10 free throws
He followed that performance by playing only ~2 minutes after giving up two easy drives to LeVert and Young
Not much of Burks either in the second Hawks game. Only ~5 minutes after closing the other night and had him take 12 3s.
The starters against the Hawks in the first game combined for 10 assists and 13 turnovers is something. Ball security and better decisions on passes need to be better. That was “better” in the second game. The starters had 27 assists to 10 turnovers(shots going in helped with the assists, obviously)
Haywood is so good in his role. He does every little thing that you’d want from every player on your team. Against the Pacers, it was the same thing. He does his thing offensively by simply moving without the ball well and creating so many opportunities himself
Miami really does run on Duncan. Period. The offense has looked a lot better running more actions for him off-ball. These actions were good. It both starts with Adebayo on the elbow and it can either flow into a simple handoff to Duncan or it can be a decoy action before flowing into an elevator screen action. Or it’s a bunch of actions like these, that create for others
That has been a thing for the whole team. It’s been a lot more movement, cutting, screening, and flowing into offense that way
Spoelstra made a decision to bench Ware to start the second half against the Pacers
The Heat went into a Herro-Bam/Ware-Duncan Spain PNR 4 times against the Hawks
A lot of zone was run against the Hawks with Davion-Haywood up top and I LOVED it
Heat Check
Here is where I give a “heat” check on the team through a weekly ramble that’s me simply ranting about the Heat and a handful of other newsworthy topics that occurred throughout the week or trends to talk about. This can be a quick, brief discussion on multiple smaller topics that should be noted for a deeper look at in the future.
First week post all-star break and this has been a very Heat experience as you can. Winning in the mud against the Raptors in overtime then blowing a lead to the Bucks in the fourth to not scoring 90 points against the Hawks’ defense. But then finishing the week off by having two of the best offensive games of the season.
A true roller-coaster, but it’s been fun — at least when it comes to the last two games.
The new additions of Mitchell and Wiggins are beginning to get more acclimated with the team. Players are bouncing back and looking as good as before(Miami runs on Duncan again). Some are returning to the rotations(welcome back, Haywood). Some have been leaving the rotation(goodbye, Rozier).
As far as seeding, they are 28-30, which is good for the seventh seed for now. They are four games behind the Pistons for the sixth seed and only 0.5 games back ahead of the Magic. These 25-odd games are going to be hell when it comes to potential seeding.
I have been vocal about wanting them to prioritize development and be less focused on winning to aim for a lottery pick, but the Heat, as always, will look to win. And they do have a good enough core to be in a lot of these games, especially when they get themselves going from 3pt. I also said it before that if they win with the young guys, then so be it. You obviously don’t want to look to get blown out each night.
That’s what the season is coming down to. It’s going to be that last push to see who will come out ahead. And you know what, let’s actually just focus on winning. That is the Heat’s route and goal.
Do I think getting into the playoffs is the better alternative? Not really, but that’s also just thinking way down the line and little has to do with simply basketball. From a fan POV, having short-term enjoyment is better than anything else. So, let’s just focus on enjoyment and what is happening on the court period.
I don’t know how likely it’s going to be for them to catch the sixth seed considering they have been a very up-and-down team and that’s not leaving much room for error.
But considering how they can look and do in their wins, with their remaining schedule, it is still very possible. They have 10 games against the Bulls, 76ers, Pelicans, Hornets, and Wizards. That should be easy enough to take care of business.
Herro has been struggling a lot from deep. He’s shooting 29% from 3pt in the last five games post-ASB. He’s also been shooting 33% in 2025 in 26 games. Even going back to December, in 39 games, he’s shooting 35%. His shooting has been slowly trending downward:
That is quite concerning. He’s going to draw defenses regardless. That will not change at all and this stretch won’t make the defense change how they cover him. But it will still continue to hurt the team considering he does take near 10 3s per game.
Some of the shots he’s been taking have been tougher, which does affect some of the percentages. For the most part, though, they are looks that he would usually make. But I did wonder if some of the shot types have changed.
Here are some 3pt shooting stats pre-January 1st and post:
C&S 3pt: 42.6%(51% freq of 3s) vs 33.1%(48%)
Pull up 3pt: 39.6%(49%) vs 32.8%(52%)
Tight 3pt: 38.2%(23%) vs 25.3%(35%)
Open 3pt: 33.1%(42%) vs 36.4%(34%)
Wide open 3pt: 50.5%(33%) vs 38.4%(28%)
Touch <2s: 41.2%(61%) vs 31.3%(58%)
Touch >2: 40.4%(39%) vs 35.2%(42%)
He has been taking tougher shots, whether it’s more off dribble, more off him holding the ball first, or more contested. All of those %s have gone up. Something to keep an eye on.
Ending up with Mitchell in the trade somehow was the biggest win that the Heat could’ve done. I’ve been loving his minutes. Mitchell is casually averaging 10.0 points and 4.1 assists in these eight games with the Heat. He’s shooting 57% from 3pt and 50% from 3pt!
He’s already been trusted enough to handle the ball a lot. Post ASB, he’s second on the team in a time of possessions with 4.6(behind Herro at 5.7). He’s averaging over 68 touches per 36, which would also be second on the team. He’s also already leading them in passes made and second in potential assists. The drive and kicks have been great. He’s also second behind Herro in pretty much all drive-related stats.
Best pick-up.
Why are the Heat worse than Pre-Jimmy Teams
This has been brought up one way or the other recently, especially with the Heat again struggling tremendously on offense. Some of the lows that they have are so bad. But they have talent. They certainly feel like they have more talent than the rosters from 2017 to 2019.
Surely, this team is better than a team that started the season 11-30 and had Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson, James Johnson, Rodney McGruder, and Luke Babbit play a lot — McGruder started 65 games and played the most with 78 and Babbit started 55.
I mean, this team does have players that have done so much more than 90% of the team back then. The only player who has a case to have been better was Goran Dragic, who two seasons prior was an All-NBA guard. But outside of that, that team was riddled with journeymen, undrafted, G-Leaguers, and second-round picks.
Yet, I don’t think they’ve been as good as them. Stats and records will show they are the least on the same tier, with some of those seasons actually being better.
Here are the main stats with ORTG/DRTG compared to the league average(plus is good for offense and minus is good for defense):
2025: -1.0 net(17th) / -1.6 relative ORTG / -0.7 rDRTG
2025 since January: -4.0(21st) / -3.1 / +0.9
2019: -0.1(16th) / -3.0 / -2.9
2018: +0.6(16th) / -1.4 / -2.0
2017: +1.3(10th) / -0.8 / -2.1
2017 post 11-30: +7.2(2nd) / +4.0 / -3.2
Focusing mainly on the offense, even for the whole season, they have the third-worst offense relative to the league average. And if we go by the most recent stretch from January, they are the worst by a whole point.
That shouldn’t happen. They have so much more talent. That’s what I see a lot on my timeline that this team has the talent and it’s certainly more than some of the subpar teams in the league right now.
This feels feels like the time everyone just kept saying [insert any Heat opponent] had more talent in the 2023 playoffs. They still got beat by the less talented team. Everyone was said to have more talent — the Bucks, Knicks, and the Celtics.
But to me how the “talent” is used and in what ways it can be maximized in certain roles matter just as much as what they could do in general. A player who can score from anywhere on the court but chooses to settle for contested jumpers isn’t better than someone who’s more limited but excels in his role.
That’s what it comes down to for this team. It’s easier to buy into a certain system that can also be maximized that has a higher floor. An overachieving talent in the right system with an all-time coach can be good. It may not result in great playoff success because that can only take you so far without actually having that elite player. But when it comes to the regular season, this has been a thing with other teams, too.
I don’t know if I feel that way about this team. It isn’t built on the same kind of players that have to play harder than the opponent every single night to even have a chance. These are players that are talented and probably should be better. The system around those players and the kind of shots everyone can take is a lot different to players that are all essentially role players. Outside of Dragic or even Waiters, there wasn’t anyone on the team that should even warrant a high amount of shots or get them going. Everything was done by the committee. I get that vibe from that team more than this team.
I also don’t think that would be on the system either. Players make systems. Not the other way around. You need to have players with the right strengths, skills, habits, and tendencies to build a certain system around. And it would probably be tough trying to mold or force players into playing a completely different style or change their roles entirely to maximize everyone the right way.
The Heatle Things
To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stats, lineups, plays, actions, or anything that I found fun, as well as compiling some other content that I found interesting.
Herro has been upping his foul drawing a lot more. For the season, he has a .242 free throw rate, up from .151 last year and up from .195, which was his next career high. He also has a 1.94 2pt foul drawn rate, also a career-high. That has also been trending upwards. Since February, that has gone up to 2.85! Here’s a thread from Brady Hawk going through his rip through move. & Some other stats compared to last year vs this year:
PNR shooting foul freq: 6.3% → 7.4%
Handoff: 2.5% → 10.3%
Herro is averaging 10.9 potential assists per 36 minutes
Adebayo has slowly been dropping in his assists. He has had two games with more than four assists in February. He had six with five or more in January. He has a 19.5% AST since January
We have talked about their offense dropping, but their defense has been a concern too. 116.1 DRTG in the last five games and 115.5 in February in 12 games, which would rank 14th. And when looking at the opponent eFG%, that’s even worse at 55.3%, which would rank 20th.
Wiggins has a .453 free throw rate in these six games with the Heat. That would be a career high. He has been quite good at getting downhill and getting to the line