The Culture Report: All-Star Break Check-In
A check-in on the Heat's season so far, the main takeaways & what's to come post All-Star break
Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. There will be additional breakdowns and pieces either on Simply Ballin or AUCH that dives in deeper into other topics and questions compiled here with additional thoughts. Following that is a Weekly Ramble to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.
We are back with more Heat basketball — for some, that might be a threat. It’s still been far too long without it. However, it was a needed break for the team, especially with how that stretch looked and how some players were really off their game. It was probably also more needed than usual considering the new additions and needing to get them acclimated with the team.
Because this was an All-Star break with almost zero games this week, the Culture Report is going to be a bit different format-wise, just focusing on mainly two things. What has the season been like so far and the road ahead in these last 25-odd games or so?
If you have missed anything from the Heat and need a refresher on what’s been going on throughout the year, this is for you.
We did have one game already and we’ll quickly touch on the thoughts and takeaways from that before we go through the main topic of the article.
120-111 WIN vs Toronto Raptors
What better way to resume the season than with a close game against the Toronto Raptors missing Jakob Poeltl and Brandon Ingram? Still, it was a good win in the end that came in overtime.
The Raptors have been an annoying opponent over the last few years, especially this year. That was still the case here. The Heat did start off well by having a 10-point lead after the first quarter and continued to have it at multiple points later in the game. But the Raptors kept crawling back. They continued to answer each time.
That’s what happened in the third. The Heat did have a 10-point lead and a few minutes later they were down by one. The Raptors had a 128.0 ORTG in the third. A lot of that was allowing so many good looks from 3pt and transition points.
The hot shooting from the Raptors and getting to the line a lot is what gave them the chance to force overtime. They shot 10/20 from 3pt and 13/16 from the free throw in the second half. RJ Barrett was the biggest culprit of cooking the Heat, as he finished with 29 points on 7/11 2pt, 4/6 3pt, and 3/4 ft, including 19 in the second half.
But fortunately for the Heat, that all wasn’t enough to lose the game on the road. They were still able to force overtime after a constant back-and-forth in the clutch. Once the lead got cut down to four with 6:30 left, it was everyone trading buckets.
The Heat did find themselves down three with under a minute left, but thanks to Andrew Wiggins getting fouled on a 3-point shot, they were able to tie the game.
Overtime was a quick show, especially with the Raptors struggling to stop the bleeding by only scoring four points on nine shots. Meanwhile the Heat, almost went perfect to score 13 points on eight shots, led by Adebayo, Wiggins, and Herro.
Herro led the team with 28 points on 6/9 2pt, 4/9 3pt, and 4/4 ft with 7 assists.
He was particularly big in the fourth, where he had seven points, all of which came in the clutch. He started off with his patented now floater. He continued to make some tough shots off handoffs or some deep 3s. I also enjoyed his passes off drives. Every time the Raptors showed help on the drive at the nail, he made that kick one pass away. And it was the fourth quarter, tough shot-making that stood out. It was the stepback 3pt and those dribble pull-ups to his spot in the mid-range.
Adebayo also did his thing with an efficient 19 points on 8/12 2pt, 0/1 3pt, and 3/4 ft, with, surprisingly, only 1 assist:
And finally, we had a better scoring game from Wiggins. He did lead the team in shots and finished with 25 points on 7/13 2pt, 2/6 3pt, and 5/6 ft:
Overall, given how the team has looked and executed down the stretch in the last handful of games, this was a needed performance for the team and they executed.
Things that caught my eye:
Davion Mitchell with a quiet 16 points on nine shots. I didn’t even realize he had this many until I looked at the box score. He still did his thing in transition and on drives
I’m going to like Anderson-Robinson minutes. Anderson checked in as the five and is the hub, so he answered by finding cutters on almost every possession. Those actions with him whether it’s a post-split, or as the hub up top, are going to produce a lot of movement offcuts
Speaking of cuts and off-ball movement, the offense felt very off-ball. There weren’t many stagnant isolations or even simple spread PNR. It was more starting with movement elsewhere
Surprisingly, they also did only have 20 assists on 46 made shots, which would be a 43% assist rate
Ware had a disappointing game with only four points on seven shots and played only ~20 minutes
Herro’s rip-through move whilst getting to the paint has been fun
A very efficient outing in the paint. The Heat shot 16/22 at the rim and 11/21 in the paint outside of the rim. 27/43 is impressive
I like it when we see Jovic improvise and just do his thing once he reads the defense. Instead of waiting for a typical set play, the defense is closer to him, so he just takes the defender off the dribble
What do we know about the Heat so far
When looking back at what has happened with the season so far, this has been a busy one — more so than usual and very different compared to any other seasons in the last decade.
It’s been busy when thinking about the long-term big picture of the team and what direction they’re going in. It’s been busy with players changing and improving their games. It’s been busy with more young players developing their games. It’s been busy with stars asking out. It’s been busy with players having a rough stretch.
It’s been busy.
So many things have happened and changed that it feels weird looking back at the team that was in November. This is a new team with a new direction.
Right now, the Heat sit in eighth place at 25-28, but what happened in that time to get here? Firstly, let’s go over some of the key stats for the team and the players throughout the year:
The player stats:
Team stats by month:
October: 2-2 / -3.1 net rating / 109.8 ORTG / 113.0 DRTG
November: 7-6 / +2.8 / 113.5 / 110.7
December: 7-6 / +2.8 / 112.1 / 109.3
January: 7-9 / -3.8 / 111.0 / 114.8
February: 2-5 / -7.2 / 106.6 / 113.8
Their first three months were just over .500 and were somewhat average, but it’s this last stretch that had them drop significantly. At one point, there almost there when it comes to nabbing a top-four seed. It was within their control and it was close. All of that disappeared around January time and since then, they went on a rough stretch that got them into a hole.
For the year, they are:
18th in net rating
20th in ORTG
11th in DRTG
Now, let’s take a look at some of the key takeaways.
The Butler Saga
For starters, their best player ended up playing only 25 games. For many reasons, Jimmy Butler only played 51% of available games for the Heat.
He was having a career year in efficiency and across different metrics, but that was overshadowed really quickly. Looking at his first game of the season, it kind of foreshadowed what we should’ve expected. It was a season of a roller-coaster. There were games like opening night where he had three points on eight shots or just the very next game, he had 17 free throws and was key in a comeback against the Hornets.
That was kind of how the season was going. Some nights, you’d be reminded how elite he is and how effortless some of those top performances were. But then on the other nights, you’d ask yourself if he even played.
And as it is with most Butler seasons, there was a constant question of health. He did miss a handful of games in multiple stretches. Before the suspension, he played 22 out of 32 games, which would be on pace for 57 games. It was always going to be tough winning games with that.
That wasn’t even the biggest news around Butler. It started off with two games that embodied the infamous Eric Bledsoe tweet — that’s how I’d describe those games:
That one-legged 3pter put the performance over the top. It all snowballed rapidly since then. One minute the Heat release a statement that they aren’t trading Butler and the next minute, we find out that Butler doesn’t have joy anymore and won’t find that in Miami.
So, suspensions followed. Outside of a four-game comeback that quickly turned into yet another suspension, that was the end of the Butler era.
Just like that. It was a bitter ending, one that definitely shouldn’t have happened the way it did, but what can you do? Things don’t always turn out the way you may hope to do.
If you want to see more about Butler and all the thoughts around that, here are some of the works:
How is Butler having the most efficient season of his career?
Let’s have a rant about Butler & the Heat
Butler’s best statistical game
The Butler saga continues
A Butler appreciation post
Herro is an All-Star
On the bright side of things, this season did mark Tyler Herro’s first All-Star appearance. Outside of the Butler drama overshadowing everything, this probably would’ve been the most positive part of the season.
If you missed it, I had two big breakdowns of Herro’s play this season that first looked at his career year at the start of the season
[herro career year]
Then, I went ahead and made his case for the All-Star:
[herro’s asg case]
He has had by far the best season of his career. For the season, he is averaging 24.9 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists per 75 possessions on 56.9% eFG and 60.6% TS. The jump in his efficiency has been one of the best in the league period.
His scoring has improved. He gets to the line a lot more compared to previous seasons. He’s averaging a career-high AST%(26.8%). He’s getting to the rim more and converting at a much higher clip. He continued to develop one of the deadliest shots in the league with that floater, where he shoots over 61% per NBA Stats. So many career highs across the board.
With all of the circumstances that surrounded the team, Herro still has been as impactful offensively as anyone else. He currently ranks 13th in O-EPM. There are only two other players that have at least a positive impact on offense, the rest are all negative and five of the rotation players almost have -2.0 or worse.
The offensive burden that he has had and still somehow has been this efficient is definitely the most impressive thing this season. It’s also still trending upwards.
That’s the kind of season Herro has had. The improvements, addressing his weaknesses, and stepping up to a role that has seen him be more ball-dominant than before would’ve been impressive on its own but considering everything else that has transpired, it looks even better.
Because even since January 1st, he averages over 76 touches, has a 5.3 time of possession(higher than Jayson Tatum, Darius Garland, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, De’Aaron Fox, Kyrie Irving, Donovan Mitchell, and Stephen Curry), and still posted a 58.2% TS, including 10/21 games with 60%.
That’s why the Heat’s offense for the season is at 114.5 with Herro on and 107.8 without him. In the stretch since January, the offense has dipped a bit with him on to 112.2, but without him, it still drops off to 107.3.
If there’s anything to take away from the half(ish) the season is his play and how he managed to make the All-Star for the first time in his career.
Adebayo’s up and down season
On the other hand, Adebayo hasn’t had the season. In fact, it might be argued that this has been his worst. Everything offensively has been down. His scoring. His volume. His efficiency. His impact. Everything down.
That was certainly not something that was expected, especially with the Olympics going on. That’s usually where we see players take a bit of a jump.
In case you missed it, towards the start of the season, I did dive into his game a lot. I had a big discussion about his overall game and the development route he’s taken throughout his career:
[bam part 1]
Then, I had a deeper look at his game for this season and why he might have been struggling
[bam part 2]
There’s been a whole bunch of reasons for his struggles. A lot of it can just as easily have been explained by shooting variance and small sample size. That has looked like to be the case, especially recently, when the shooting has bounced back.
When you look at the most recent stretch, in his last 10 games, he has averaged 21.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists shooting 52.9% from the floor, 38.7% from 3pt, and has a 56.7% eFG and 60.2% TS with 25.4% usage. That’s the kind of Adebayo that we were used to seeing.
But the previous 41 games still happened where he averaged 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on 45.5% from the floor with a 48.1% eFG and 52.1% TS.
The concerns are still there when you consider that all of his impact metrics are trending downwards. He’s had a rough year on the offensive end. The change of roles throughout the season hasn’t helped. Completely different lineups also may have played a factor.
Defensively, he’s been himself. There was also an earlier stretch where it hasn’t felt like the defense with him has shown up the way it usually has. The impact is still there for the most part. The Heat’s defense still is one of the best with him on. They have a 111.8 DRTG with him on and 116.2 without him.
But if you did turn on a game and you saw an unusual game from him, that has been the norm for him so far this year.
The young blood’s development
With the team not competing for a big playoff run, there have been more minutes for all the youngsters. Combine that with Butler’s suspension, and there have been stretches throughout the year that everyone has seen.
Pelle Larsson has been a pretty nice addition off the bench in 36 games. If you look at his stats, nothing will really stand out. He doesn’t take many shots. He hasn’t been hitting the 3-point ball well either. He doesn’t score a lot(only 3.8 per game). But with Larsson, it was all the little things.
He has looked like a solid role player that you can plug in here and there to give you the needed 8-12 minutes. As a second-round pick, that is a great contribution. He has already fit well with the team that had him play big minutes in overtime. Spoelstra has already trusted him enough to play big minutes in the fourth — he trusted him to defend Tyrese Maxey, Cam Johnson, and Tatum in crucial minutes.
I had some words on Larsson’s minutes against teams in the fourth that were needed to provide some defense:
[pelle trusted]
And a bit later, I broke down what exactly he’s been doing well. If you’re also wondering who is that guy whenever you’re watching the Heat, it’s probably Larsson giving you some solid minutes, particularly on the defensive end.
Jamie Jaquez Jr. had a great rookie season last year. There was so much buzz around him and that couldn’t have gone any more the opposite way in his sophomore season. It continued from last year after he hit the rookie wall and dealt with injuries.
After also the Olympics select team, the summer league, and the flashes he’s shown in multiple roles last year, I thought this year would’ve been better than this. But it’s been looking rough.
The rim finishing has been there in the same way it was last year. The 3-point shooting hasn’t improved. And a lot of the decision-making or shot selection has been discouraging.
I still wrote about his poor start as something that it’s too early to panic… But that was the end of November and it’s now February. This hasn’t been a great season for him in his second year.
The brightest spots have been both Nikola Jovic and Kel’el Ware.
After bringing himself into the rotation last year, he has made real progress to continue to improve and show a lot more flashes of even better things.
The stats won’t pop out as anything special, even if you look at a per-possession basis. He’s averaging 16.2 points, 4.2 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per 75 on 59.4% TS. That is pretty decent, especially when you look at the efficiency.
That efficiency has jumped up from last year. He has been looking to initiate more. He has been tasked a lot more with the ball in his hands. His drives have looked better. There’s been growth in how he’s looked when attacking. Areas from last year that were detrimental, such as rim finishing have been improved.
There was a stretch around January where he was seen to have the ball a lot in his hands and his PNR game was showing.
He’s had a handful of great games:
23/5/7 on 8/9 shooting vs 76ers
21/8/5 on 8/12 vs Blazers
20/6/4 on 8/17 vs Warriors
18/7/6 on 5/9 vs Rockets
Unfortunately, he also lost his starting spot very early in the season. There was an issue of not being able to find a role off-ball that had him be effective. That is still something that has to be worked on.
But so far, Jovic has looked a lot better in his third year.
Finally, we have Ware as the last youngster. He hasn’t had a typical start to the as you might expect from someone being a 15th overall pick. In the first 25 games, he only appeared in 10, and most of it came in garbage time or not even five minutes of play.
It wasn’t until December 21st that he inserted himself as a solid rotational piece. Since then, in 29 games, he has averaged 10.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, and 1.9 stocks in 23.4 minutes per game. And in the last 13 games, since January 21st, he has inserted himself as a starter. Here, he has averaged 10.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 2.0 stocks in 29.4 minutes per game.
Slowly and gradually, he has earned the trust to play more. He has solidified himself as a player who does deserve minutes and can be impactful. Per EPM, he has continued to trend upwards:
So far, he has flashed a whole bunch on both ends of the floor and has made the starting lineup work. That is a big plus for him and the team.
The team & everything else
As for the rest of the team and everything else in between, this hasn’t been an easy ride.
A lot of that really comes from being stuck at a crossroads before being forced to transition into a new build. Before the Butler drama and suspension, this was a typical Heat season as it has been the last few years.
Until December 16th(the last game before Butler was dealing with an injury and before drama), they were just 13-11 with a +2.7 net that ranked 13th. Not a great team, not a terrible team, and not even a bad team either. They were just doing their thing as always.
There were some positive stretches like the time I was writing about how their offense with the starters was one of the best in the league. There were certainly a bunch of positives. The Heat with Butler, Adebayo, and Herro was +4.8 with a 122.3 ORTG. There were certainly things there that you could talk yourself into.
But that was really what the team was. It was still a team that should’ve made the transition but still had a player of Butler’s caliber that could be a sneaky opponent that you may not want to see in a potential first-round.
It was the same thing as last year. Even with the improvements from Herro and potential jumps from Jovic, Ware’s addition, and other pieces around them, there was still a hard ceiling on the core.
The circumstances around Butler were unfortunate, but at the same time, it did force them into a change. And that change also gave them future potential assets and three quality players that would help the team a lot more than Butler sitting on the bench. Neither Wiggins, Mitchell, or Anderson would have the same kind of impact as butler or affect the team’s ceiling the way he would, but that’s only if Butler was going to play.
That wasn’t going to happen and now they have those three new additions. We only ended up seeing them for less than three games before the break, which is unfortunate — probably why the trade should’ve been made much sooner.
But now, the team was heading into a break with no drama. There was nothing over their heads about potential trades or off-season talks. Things can go back to normal and just focus on basketball.
That’s what the Heat’s season had been like.
The road ahead
So, with that being the season they’ve had so far, what can we expect or look for in the last 25-odd games?
The first thing is the potential push for the playoffs or looking to gain a lottery pick. This has been a topic for a while for the Heat in a few seasons lately. Should you go for the playoffs or punt on a handful of games to get a better pick? That was the big question in 2023, which ended with them going to the finals. That was also the question last year, which also due to unfortunate circumstances with injuries, they ended up getting gentlemen swept.
What’s it going to be this year? Well, this year, they don’t have the “wait until we’re fully healthy and clicking to have a puncher’s chance” card.
And what is the puncher’s chance for? Just a playoff experience that will most likely end in a first-round loss? That playoff experience will come at the expense of adding new young talent to the team, which will likely be the only realistic way of adding something to the team.
As written elsewhere, I’m also not sold on the core in general, which would be another reason why I believe giving yourself another first-round pick and a higher chance of potential better talent to be the better approach.
But beyond that general approach, there are still plenty of things to watch out for.
How will Adebayo continue to look after the stretch heading into the break that he had? Are we going to see the Adebayo that we’ve seen in the last two or so years?
I have some thoughts on that, too, because even if that does happen, Adebayo from the last two seasons also has been one of the least efficient and impactful players on the offensive end. Him bouncing back to that norm hasn’t been a great thing for his game or the team’s offense. His norm back then was also a big reason why the Heat struggled offensively.
Continuing with Adebayo, with the unfortunate Wembanyama news, there is an opening for the DPOY award. I do wonder if he could make a push for that.
Elsewhere, can we see Herro bounce back to what he was doing before this recent stretch? He did look kind of gassed in some of the games and the 3-point shooting was coming and going. He did look like he needed a break. The season is still all about his development as a clear number-one option. Can he adjust and counter the kind of defenses that he’s seeing?
Finally, this last stretch of the season is all about basketball with little to no expectations. I am not looking to see if they can make the playoffs but it’s all things in between and players addressing areas that have needed to be worked on. It’s more focused on the individual part.