The Culture Report: Butler Mismatch Hunting, Herro vs Knicks, Bam! & Why Are The Starters Bad
Welcome to The Culture Report! A weekly report, going through the thoughts, discussion, and analysis of the Miami Heat. This is the place for you to get up to speed with everything that’s important, interesting, or simply fun — whether that’s news, specific games, box scores, actions, plays, signings, trades, trends, financials, schemes + everything else you can think off — and digging deeper into the how’s and why’s through film breakdowns, stats, and analysis. The goal is to have this be the most in-depth, analysis-filled round-up that will go through everything you need to know.
Games from the week:
114-106 WIN vs Charlotte Hornets, 26/10/24
106-98 WIN vs Detroit Pistons, 28/10/24
107-116 LOSS vs New York Knicks, 30/10/24
Stats from the week:
ORTG: 114.3 (117.5, 112.8, 112.6)
DRTG: 111.5 (109.3, 102.1, 123.4)
eFG%: 54.5% vs 52.1%
TOV%: 12.6% vs 16.7%
ORB%: 25.3% vs 32.5%
FT Rate: 20.2 vs 17.9
Key performances:
Tyler Herro vs Knicks: 34pts on 5/7 2pt, 8/13 3pt, 2/2 ft with 5 rebounds & 7 assists
Jimmy Butler vs Pistons: 23pts on 7/10 2pt, 0/1 3pt, 9/11 ft with 4 rebounds, 7 assists & 4 steals
Jimmy Butler vs Hornets: 26pts on 6/12 2pt, 1/3 3pt, 11/17 ft with 8 rebounds, 8 assists & 3 stocks
What’s Been Heating Up
To bring you up to speed with everything, we’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the games and a bunch of film and Xs & Os from the week. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.
Heat vs Hornets Film Session: Butler’s Bounce Back Game, 28/10/24
Herro’s performance vs the Knicks, 31/10/24
Butler’s aggressiveness and mismatch hunting
Bam reverts to old habits
Herro’s 34pts against the Knicks
Towns cooking the Heat
Weekly Game Thoughts
So, wins are wins. A win against subpar competition even in a clutch game or having it be closer than it needs to be is still a win at the end of the day.
Against the Hornets, that was Jimmy Butler’s bounce-back game after the poor start he had against the Magic. This was a similar game to what we might expect from Butler(though, not entirely). He was more aggressive. He did look to handle the ball right from the start of the game, instead of sitting in the corner.
But this was more about the the minutes with the bench. That was when everything was cooking. This was a recurring theme last year where the bench units with Butler leading them was one of the best ways to extend leads, get back into games or close things out to not make it a game. That’s where Butler got a lot of points and it was simply mismatch hunting — more on that later.
And yet, it was another clutch game that in the end, it was just BS, honestly. It was a game of who’s going to blink first because they were just trading tough bucket after tough bucket. Some poor, late game execution from the Hornets and the Heat were able to steal the game on the road.
Against the Pistons, this was another game that was too close. The Pistons shouldn’t have been leading by five in the first quarter. The Heat shouldn’t have lost a double-digit lead at halftime. They shouldn’t have been down entering the fourth quarter. But after some extra defensive intensity, they took over. That and the Pistons were trying really hard to not win. Some of the shot selections and poor execution made the comeback much easier for the Heat, even if they weren’t playing great either.
The story was similar against the Knicks. There were stretches where they looked good. There were stretches where they looked like they were going to separate themselves. But the Knicks aren’t the Pistons or the Hornets. When the Heat weren’t able to get their offense going and struggled in the third as they usually do, the Knicks were able to crawl back. And when you have your best player attempt nine shots for the game, it’s also not going to be easy fighting back.
Butler’s mismatch hunting
So, against the Hornets, Butler finished with 26 points on 6/12 2pt, 1/3 3pt & 11/17 ft with 8 assists. He led the team with 75 touches, 47 front-court touches, and had a 6.0 time of possession. This was the complete opposite of what was going on against the Magic. This was the Butler we know that he can be when he is engaged.
We first start off with the aggressiveness. That first clip you see above is right at the start. That’s the Heat’s first offensive possession and it’s already Butler handling the ball and flowing into a Herro PNR with 19 seconds on the clock. That stood out a lot. It did feel from the start the vibe was different with him.
In that first possession, he got the switch against Seth Curry and looked to hunt him in the post. He’s backing him down with everyone else spaced out. Nikola Jovic is looking to set a flare screen for Herro before cutting himself(he honestly had a layup there after Nick Richards jumped) and kicking it out. You get ball movement, though, Herro didn’t end up with a clean look.
In the following clip, we see another Butler action hunting LaMelo Ball after a Rozier PNR. Butler looks to attack in the middle of the floor this time, gets a deep paint touch and has the open kick to Jovic for 3pt(thank you, Adebayo for the pin-in screen).
The two clips starting at 0:50 were fun to see. It’s a simple Bryant being the hub up top with Robinson setting a pindown for Butler. They go to it twice. On the first attempt, Butler has that burst getting right to the rim. On the second, the defense was expecting that, so you can see Bridges ducking under, and that opened up a pull-up.
That is the aggressiveness from Butler that’s needed a lot more. That intent to score. The clip at 1:05 shows exactly that, with him wasting no time attacking Martin with a quick rip-through in the post and getting to the rim, plus the foul.
But it was this mismatch hunting with the bench that mattered a lot more. That was one of the reasons why the lineups with Alec Burks had the best offensive rating.
It all revolved around Duncan or Burks setting him screens and Butler doing his thing. That’s how he managed to get to the line for 17 free throws. And when you combine that he was aggressive, looking for his shot as the first option, that’s a very, very easy and effective option on offense, especially against a team with many players to hunt.
This is the Butler that they need more of. This is also the best form of offense that they can get. Even if better teams have better defenders, there needs to be that intent to score at all times.
Herro’s performance vs Knicks
Tyler Herro has been the Heat’s best performer to start the season period and based on exceeding all kinds of expectations so far. That continued against the Knicks with his 34 points on 5/7 2pt, 8/13 3pt with 7 assists. His off-ball shot-making was needed and he still gave you plenty of rim pressure himself.
The first part was the 3s. The volume and the willingness to have a lot more of the shot diet be off the catch has been the story of his season so far. Going 8/13 against the Knicks helped a lot throughout the game. It’s taking what the defense gives you.
I also liked more of a willingness and better off-ball movement, too. You can see this in the first clip, in which Butler attacks and Anunoby does not pay attention to Herro. Instead of remaining in one spot, he moves along the arc for the wide-open 3pt. Great way to exploit the ball-watching defense.
At the 0:40 mark, he runs a PNR with Bryant that attacks Towns in a deep drop and forces a late switch because of Bryant’s pop. Now, Towns is meant to be on Herro, so he quickly looked to get back out to the 3-point line. When Butler flows into the PNR, there is miscommunication and wide-open Herro.
But it was him generating 3s for others and his rim pressure that stood out a lot too:
We see him again be able to turn corners in the PNR, take guys off the dribble, and get deeper paint touches to create 3s with drive and kicks.
What’s Been Going On With Bam?
So, what has Bam Adebayo been doing lately? There’s been so much conversation around him, especially after the Knicks game. I have many thoughts on that, which we’ll be diving deeper into later this week, so be sure to be on the lookout for that later.
The first is that all of the noise that I see being made about Adebayo’s lack of offense and poor start is ignoring the bigger problem and letting the best player off the hook. I’ve seen twice as many takes and memes about Adebayo than anything to do with Butler.
Yes, he is making max money, but he’s also not the best player on the team. He’s also not the guy that is looking to get paid in the summer. He’s also not the guy who has been more inconsistent, unhealthy or doesn’t provide a lot more impact elsewhere(though that hasn’t been that much of a case this year).
The change this year is more drastic than usual. He has gone from taking 20.9 FGA per 100 in the last two years to 15.2. That is a significant drop-off. But I’d argue those two seasons weren’t the norm and shouldn’t have been. That role was also not the kind of role you’d want from Adebayo.
He isn’t a good enough offensive player to warrant 20+ attempts, with primarily of the offense coming via post-ups, isolations, or inefficient rolls for middys. That has all declined and gone away.
Now, it has also gone the wrong way in the other direction. This is also lower usage and effectiveness of what you’d want from him too. But compare that 15.2 to his 16.0 in 2020 or 18.5 in 2021. That’s around the same and that’s where it should be.
But that’s going to be difficult to go “back” a role. We’ve seen over the last few years the Heat pushing Adebayo to go into more of a creator role with more responsibility as a scorer. That’s why he had an increase in self-creation and trading away the typical big man duties. Ideally, that part of his game needs to be on top of the role player on offense.
Some fans may see this as either disrespectful or a waste of a max deal, but my ideal role for Adebayo offensively is an uber-charged Jarrett Allen. He should be a roll(or pop now)/cut big that should grow into being a spacing 5 too for the most part and have the creation as the extra. The extra shouldn’t make up his game.
And although he has dropped off in usage and touches, the habits remained the same. Whenever he(or the team) looks to get him going, it’s the typical isolation basketball that ends in an inefficient mid-range shot. Take these two clips from the Hornets game where he had 17 shots.
Many possessions with him looking to get going via a post-up or self-creation. Or this in the PNR:
These are the same kind of looks he was hunting all last season.
That’s why you have his shot profile be still a lot of pull-ups and and lot C&S 2pt. 18% of his shots are C&S 2pt and 24% of his shots are pull up 2s.
This isn’t because he’s spacing now. His off-the-catch numbers aren’t due to a change in role — though that is also at 18% and it only looks that bad because he’s yet to make a 3pt. This is him going back to his old habits of the last two seasons. That’s why you also see him only have 16% of his shots at the rim and 60% within 4-14ft. His usage and touches went down, but how he uses those touches remains the same.
The last two years, it’s been learning how to be that guy on offense with a high usage. That was also needed, especially considering where he was coming from. With some of the issues in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, there was a need for that development.
Now, it’s time to scale back. It’s time to learn to balance that with what they had Adebayo doing in 2020.
Some of the counterarguments I’ve seen is that the guard play is that bad at setting him up and I don’t buy that he has a 15% rim rate mainly because of the guards or how he’s being used. The guards shouldn’t have a higher rim rate than him. Jovic, Jaquez, Robinson, and Herro shouldn’t have more shots at the rim. That is on him.
How Spoelstra ends up using Adebayo in the offense will likely be the most interesting thing to watch out for in the next stretch of games.
Why Are The Starters Bad
So, the starters have been quite bad. How bad? They’re -30 in 58 minutes. They have a -27.2 net rating. They have a 98.2 offensive rating shooting 44.6% from 2pt and 29.5% from 3pt. The defense isn’t any better with 125.4, but the opponent is only shooting 50.7% from 2pt and 42.1% from 3pt.
There are multiple issues with this, that vary in degree:
Herro is only shooting 21.4% from 3pt(3/14)
Adebayo has a 41.6% TS
The point-of-attack defense is abysmal
Adebayo hasn’t been his best defensively
Rozier is shooting 36.3% from 2pt(4/11)
Opponents rebound on 33.9% of their misses
The team is shooting 60.8% at the rime
There’s a bit of a list. Not entirely sure how many can be addressed and how many will even bounce back. But the biggest issue is that the best player has scored nine points on 17 true shooting attempts in 58 minutes for a usage of 14.9%.
I don’t know what is worse, the poor efficiency or the low usage. Both are very concerning. This was a case last year where with the top players, Butler is essentially a very expensive role player who is also not really good either at role-player job.
That’s the reason the starters have been that bad. Their best player isn’t involved for 90% of it, outside of a handful of possessions. For the most part, it’s a Rozier show handling the ball or taking turns with Herro.
Herro has been decent enough when he does handle the ball, but he can’t buy a bucket when he’s without the ball looking to space. Rozier makes his 3s but is shooting 36% if he looks to attack. That’s the offense that they’re relying on. That’s never going to work well.
I don’t see any reason that this would change without a change in the lineup or at the very least, seeing Butler lead the starters in usage.
The Heatle Things
To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stat, lineups, plays, actions, or anything that I found interesting or fun.
The Heat have been very good at protecting the ball. They rank 5th in the league in TOV% with 12.1
They forgot how to rebound, though. They are 25th in ORB% with 23.8 and 29th in opponent ORB% with 34.7%. They can’t rebound themselves to get extra possessions and they also can’t stop the other team from getting more possessions
The Heat know how to score in transition! They are third in points per possession with 1.29
They are really good off-screens, ranking third in points per possession with 1.32, and are also sixth in frequency
Butler is shooting 7/13(53%) within 4-14ft, a career high. But he’s also getting blocked 15.8% of his shots at the rim, also a career-high