The Culture Report: Heat in the Clutch & A Quick Overall Check-up

Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. Following that is a Heat Check to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, where I discuss the current state of the team and any trends & worthy topics to briefly go through. Before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.

A quick side note before going into the report. This is going to be less of an emphasis on three of the games without some breakdowns or a deeper look into the takeaways. I haven’t had time to get into the rewatches and dive more into the games for this week.

What’s Been Heating Up

We’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the game. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.

112-116 OT LOSS vs New York Knicks

Ugh. I know the results shouldn’t matter as much for this team, at the end of the day, but the way some of those results happen is still frustrating. Not being good enough to be in games is one thing, but you also shouldn’t let games slip away when it is still within your control.

The Heat did lead by 19 at the end of the second quarter and around the third. They had a 10-point lead in the fourth with six minutes remaining. They also had a four-point lead with 1:17 left that could’ve been closed out in one of those possessions. It’s these kinds of situations that are frustrating where the game was within reach and all they needed was one score or one stop

It’s even more frustrating with how they looked in the first half(and how bad the Knicks looked). In the first half, they had 137.8 ORTG and 100.0 DRTG. It was feasting in the paint and I mean feasting. They had 40 points in the paint and shot 20/24, including 15/18 at the rim:

• 0:02 — Herro-Bam empty side PNR that targets Towns in a kind of high drop. He’s caught in a bad position once Herro makes the pocket pass. Because it’s an empty side, there’s no available tag. Anunoby is on Ware in the dunker spot but is late to realise he needs to help

• 0:27 — Davion-Bam PNR. Brunson looks to go under the screen but Davion is too fast and he’s already going downhill. Towns wasn’t in any good position to help and that’s too easy for Davion to attack and get to the rim over Brunson

• 0:34 — Another Herro-Bam PNR that is attacking Towns in a drop. I’m really not sure what Towns is doing there but Herro has the open lane to attack with Bridges also trailing

They were abusing the Knicks defense. A lot of their shots in the paint were easy dunks or drives. That’s how bad it was. They got that through the PNR. It was an endless attack on the Knicks’ bigs in drop. It either resulted in an open drive for the ball handler where the rim protection wasn’t there or the shooters were so overplayed that it opened up lobs and rolls. The defense was genuinely that bad, whether it was the defensive big, the guard defending, or the weakside help. All had issues and the Heat capitalized — Herro had four drives to the rim. Mitchell added a pair. Ware had four dunks!

That changed in the second half, where the Heat had a 93.5 ORTG and their paint scoring dropped to 14. They only went 7/13, including 2/5 at the rim. A big part of that was the adjustment from the Knicks. They packed the paint much quicker and earlier on all of the PNRs. They had Anunoby defend either Adebayo or Herro(mostly Herro) and that made a huge difference. A lot of the errors in the PNR was on Bridges guarding the action, too, and with Anunoby, those advantages went away.

On the defensive side, it went from 100.0 DRTG to 130.4. It was a couple of things on that side and a lot of it did feel like it was the Knicks shooting themselves in the foot. There was some shooting luck not going there away, but even beyond that, the offense didn’t do much to even pressure the Heat.

That all changed in the second half. Anunoby and Towns did a lot of the damage combining for 25 points on 10/14 shooting in the second half. Anunoby really got it going against Ware. That was one of the main reasons why Ware didn’t see much playing time in the fourth.

It was a bunch of bad defensive lapses and the right buttons being pressed by the Knicks that the Heat struggled to counter.

And once the fourth quarter started, it was Brunson waking up. He had a relatively quiet night before he had 10 points in the fourth and was the guy who made it all happen and brought back the Knicks.

The defense just wasn’t hitting in the second half. Players were making mistakes. Even the better defenders like Highsmith give up drives to Brunson.

But we still had a great performance from Adebayo, who finished with 30 points on 12/14 2pt, 0/2 3pt, and 6/8 ft, with 7 rebounds and 4 assists. He was on a mission. He was finding his shots well in the PNR on the roll to the rim or in the paint. And then in the second half, it was a lot more of him getting to his spots in the mid-range. There are two plays that I like for him that can exploit some defenders and that’s the simple pindown in the paint. If the defense doesn’t switch and the big(Robinson or Towns) struggle going over a screen, it’s a wide open catch and shoot.

It’s unfortunate that this wasn’t enough because he was making every shot you may think of and the Knicks didn’t have the answer for that. They were tough shots that you’d mostly want to give up but at some point, you got to do something, especially in close games.

Finally, there was the Herro stuff. I don’t know how often it happens where a player has one of the best halves of the season followed by one of the worst. Had the Heat somehow pushed the lead further in the third and we wouldn’t see much of Herro or the starters playing big minutes, that could’ve been his best game. And it’s funny to say that considering his game in the first half was 11 points on 5/7 2pt, 0/2 3pt, and 1/1 ft with 6 assists.

But it’s just the way he was going about the game. He was making all of the right plays and reads. He wasn’t forcing shots. He wasn’t taking some questionable ones. Everything was within the flow and the reads he was making all led to great offense. Then, in the second half(+ OT), he finished with 11 points on 15 shots with 1 assist.

Overall, this was just a typical Heat game this season. It starts out great, has some great highs, and then it all comes crashing down late in the game. There were still plenty of positives to takeaway like Adebayo’s big game, Herro’s first half, and the way they picked apart the Knicks’ defense.

If you want to geek out on some more Xs and Os from this game, I posted my full game notes that go through a lot of the individual possessions:

106-90 WIN vs Washington Wizards

I mean, what even is there to say about any team against the Wizards. The Wizards for the season have 12 wins. 12. The Heat were without key rotation players in Jaquez, Mitchell, Ware, Wiggins, and Jovic but at the same time, do you really need more against the Wizards?

That’s why the rotations for this game were so balanced and everyone got significant minutes. Everyone but Love had at least ~25 minutes. That’s eight players with over 25 minutes. That also tells you what kind of game that was.

When you look at the offense and the scoring throughout, the story is the same. Five guys attempted at least one shot and all scored in double digits. They were led by Adebayo and his 19 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists on 7/16 shooting. The three main guards Rozier, Duncan, and Herro combined for 48 points on 18/35 shooting. But it was Larsson who stood out with his performance. 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists on 6/11 shooting. He played quite well — that’s how you look to earn minutes and he shows that he deserves it.

And when looking at the defense, it’s one of those games where it is like “Okay”. The Wizards chucked up a lot of 3s and shot 28%. They shot 37% from the floor. THEY SHOT 20/45 IN THE PAINT AND 14/25 AT THE RIM. Was it good defense? Was it the Wizards being the Wizards? Who knows.

I try to make the thoughts and takeaways interesting and look at key things on the court, but I’m not gonna lie, this was an ugly game against the damn Wizards that still just ended up with the Heat up by 20+. I wouldn’t blame you if you missed this game and just read the box score.

107-112 LOSS vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Man, the Heat were so close to pulling this off. The Heat were without Herro, Wiggins, Ware, Jaquez, and Jovic, and despite that, this was still a game right to the end it could’ve ended differently, had Duncan didn’t get Strus’ed on the last shot(By Strus’ed, I’m referring to the out of bound shot against the Celtics in the ECF).

The way they got themselves in the game, too, was also impressive considering this was against the second best team in the league and it was on their home court. They were down 17 at one point in the second quarter, before quickly erasing that to single digits to head into half time. Down 17 with 3:19 left and down only three with 0:48 left. They went on a massive run led mostly by Adebayo and Rozier.

Speaking of Bam, that was his game. Without Herro, all of the offensive responsibility fell to him and he, once again, answered in the same way as he did against the Knicks. He finished with 34 points on 8/13 2pt, 3/5 3pt, and 9/9 ft with 5 assists. This includes going for 12 points in the fourth on 3/4 shooting and 4/4 ft.

There were some key contributions from both Highsmith and Duncan combining for 27 points on a 10/19 shooting. But outside of that, there wasn’t much else going for them offensively. That’s why Adebayo had as many FGM as the rest of the starting five combined.

A bigger issue was the defense. That was where I would say they lost the game. There was a lot of zone. A lot. And the Cavaliers figured things out and had so many good looks out of it. De’Andre Hunter had some timely buckets, as he finished with 16 points on 6/12 shooting with making only 2s. His cutting to around the middle was doing damage. And the damage was either him in the paint or someone getting a good look at the rim, where they shot 20/27.

This was a bigger issue in the clutch too, where they couldn’t get stops. Adebayo had it going on offense where he made a 3pt, drew a foul, went for a fade and got another 3pt to fall. That was all working, but the Cavaliers just kept answering back. They scored on 5 of their 6 shots to give them a lead. Once that happened, some bad shots happened and that was the game.

104-106 LOSS vs Minnesota Timberwolves

It's not the best way to finish off the week with a clutch loss, but it’s again surprising that they were even in a clutch situation, especially considering the circumstances. The Heat continue to be somewhat short-handed with no Ware, no Wiggins, and no Burks this time.

This was a game of runs for the most part. That’s how the Heat managed to be in the game entering the fourth. They were down by double digits in the second quarter at 40-29 with 8:08 left and then suddenly four minutes later it was already 46-40 at 4:05. Four minutes later again and it’s now tied game at 52-52.

They got caught in the same situation in the third quarter where they were down 73-62 with 5:32 left before calling a timeout. Then in the span of ~25 seconds they went on a 8-0 run that pushed them back to 73-70 with 4:40 left and once again, finished the quarter tied at 80.

So, everything is coming down to the fourth quarter, as it has in each of the two previous losses. In the fourth, they had a 104.3 ORTG and 118.2 DRTG, so it was their offense that cost them the most. I say mostly because there were some defensive possessions that were crucial mistakes but they also wouldn’t be in such a position if they could score the ball at needed moments too. There’s only so much you can hope to bank on the defense without giving that side of the ball some margin of error.

It was a tie game heading into clutch time(under five minutes) at 95-95 after a quick tough Herro 3pt off a screen. But the 3pt shooting is what cost them. They did settle for three 3s in a row when it was just a 3pt game. They didn’t need to go for those looks and it did look like it was pre determined that they were going for it.

I was surprised to see that this game it was a lot of Herro and Adebayo offense. Both finished with 21 shots. Adebayo had 29 points on 10/16 2pt, 1/5 3pt, and 6/7 ft with 4 assists. Herro had 22 points on 5/13 2pt, and 4/8 3pt with 7 assists.

No one else had double digits shots and I’m not sure if I like that distribution. The offense also came down to the 3pt shooting from both Duncan and Herro who combined for 8/15 but the rest of the team went 6/19.

On the other hand, the defense against the Wolves 3s was something else. Five different players had at least three 3s. They ended up going 18/45. Over half of their shots came from beyond the arc and that was their goal.

Overall, this was just yet another game that ended up slipping away. It’s great that they are in a position to win games. That can be encouraging to see, especially if how they get there would also show some promise in different areas. But as far as results, the clutch situation has cost them games.

Heat Check

Here is where I give a “heat” check on the team through a weekly ramble that’s me simply ranting about the Heat and a handful of other newsworthy topics that occurred throughout the week or trends to talk about. This can be a quick, brief discussion on multiple smaller topics that should be noted for a deeper look at in the future.

This wasn’t the best week. Three losses and all three losses that got lost in the fourth quarter isn’t a fun thing. But that’s how this year has been for them, especially in the fourth quarters and clutch situations, which we’ll look at in more detail.

But let’s just now check in with everything that’s been going on and how it may look for the last 20 game stretch to end the season.

The first point is can we just please get healthy. Wiggins has played six games! Mitchell has missed out. Jaquez has been missing a couple. Ware got injured and has missed a few. Jovic fractured his hand. The Heat can’t afford to lose rotational players.

Losing Wiggins when he was meant to be the big piece for Butler is annoying. That is losing a starter. Losing Ware, Jaquez, and Jovic is even more annoying when the direction was meant to be leaning towards the youth!

At this point, it’s nothing basketball related that makes the whole experience annoying. I don’t care if they lose or win, or make the playoffs or get in the lottery until everyone is healthy. Even if they are in those games short handed, it’s cool, but we will never see any full picture of what the team is or could be if you’re missing multiple starters. The big experiment was meant to be with Ware and Adebayo starting together and we can’t even see that.

This part has been the most annoying to deal with in this season because I’m sorry that I don’t want to see Kevin Love start in the year 2025, respectfully. They don’t have much to play for outside of playing the “kids”, experimenting with lineups, and letting players play freely. All of that is just made more difficult with all of the changes.

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Moving onto the basketball side.

I mentioned last week that Herro has been struggling with his 3pt shooting where it has been trending down, mainly due to having a tougher shot diet, both in terms of more self creation and more contested shots.

That has still continued to happen and it’s affecting his overall efficiency. Since the ASB, he has a 49.1% eFG and 54.2%. One thing that has also stood out is he’s by far leading the team in shots now. Post ASB, he’s taking 20 shots per game with Wiggins and Adebayo second at 15.5. Then, another drop off to Duncan at 9.6.

I’m not a fan of that. That changes by half. This is what was talked about against the Knicks where he had two very different halves with just how he approached his offense.

In the first half:

• Herro: 9.6 FGA

• Wiggins: 8.8

• Adebayo: 8.1

• Duncan: 4.8

• Ware: 4.3

In the second half:

• Herro: 9.8

• Adebayo: 6.6

• Wiggins: 6.3

• Burks: 5.0

• Duncan: 4.8

Not sure what to make of this approach to lean more into Herro-ball in the second half, despite his efficiency dropping even further then. He has a 58.8% TS in the first half and 51.2% in the second.

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But do you know who has himself going? Adebayo. A while back now I asked if Bam is back and looked into his great stretch. Well, that stretch continues to improve.

Post ASB, he’s averaging 23.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 61.5% eFG and 65.5% TS with 24.2% usage. Though, I do want to point out that he also has a 15.9% AST, which is different.

I’ll be looking into his stretch in more detail in a separate breakdown in the next couple of days, but I just wanted to highlight it here now. He has been balling. He’s had two very efficient 30pt games already.

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Now, someone hasn’t been balling at all… I’m not going to pile on. I’m not going to post a lot of bad stats. But, man, Rozier’s playing time has been testing me. It’s been bad… like really bad.

Post ASB, the Heat are -5.2 net with a 111.6 ORTG in 141 minutes with Rozier on. They are +5.4 with 117.5 ORTG in 301 minutes without him.

A 10pt swing.

Adebayo with Rozier is -8.7 with 113.4 ORTG in 105 minutes and +1.6 with 118.8 ORTG in 225 minutes without him. Herro with Rozier is -24.4 but in only 28 minutes.

I just don’t get it. Rozier playing bad aside, I just don’t get the constant decision to play him that many minutes. Spoelstra played him 40 damn minutes against the Cavaliers — that led both teams.

WHY!

Rozier has to be dealing with something for it to be this bad on all accounts. This isn’t just a shooting slump. This isn’t just a rough patch. Some of the decision making, the choices, and the shot selection he has is mind blowing.

I have bigger issues with that still somehow warranting minutes. He’s gonna play if the coach tells him to, obviously. So, I just wonder what is it that Spoelstra is seeing that 99.9% of the fanbase don’t.

At some point, you got to pull the plug completely. This isn’t making that decision because Pelle Larsson or Isaiah Stevens is the answer. This isn’t saying that without Rozier they will be winning. It’s simply saying that I don’t see a reason he has to be on the court right now for anything that you want to achieve. Spoelstra benched Duncan for much less in previous seasons but he can’t do that here. Strange.

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Speaking of Duncan, he has been on a roll. He has six straight games scoring in double digits, including two 20pt games. He’s averaging 16.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in these six games. He’s also 23/47 from 3pt. He has four games with at least four triples. He has been great. The Heat are +13.5 with a 119.6 ORTG with him on in 180 minutes.

That applies to Highsmith, too. He has averaged over 10 points per game and is shooting 59% from the floor. He just does his job.

Those two have been playing their role so well and have given everything they needed to bring in their minutes.

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So, right now they are sitting at seventh spot with a 29-33 record. The two teams below(Hawks and Magic) both have 29 wins. It’s going to be a tight race. I doubt they’ll be able to catch up to the Pistons for the sixth seed with them already being almost five games back.

This last stretch will be all about 7-10 spots. That’s the only thing that will matter.

And seeing as how the Heat have looked in some of these games, it’s literally hit or miss. They can have some luck in those games where those clutch games go in their favour.

But again, the focus shouldn’t be on the seeding. What’s more important is seeing how everyone continues to look.

Adebayo is on the roll and I’m curious to see how long he can keep this up because he’s been doing it all on the offensive end. The offensive burden has fell on him and he has answered with a lot of the tough shot making.

Another thing to watch out for is seeing how Herro continues to refine his approach. I don’t think there’s much wrong with some of the things that he can or can’t do. It’s all about how he goes about using all of it. There are games like the Knicks in the first half where he makes all the right reads or it’s like the second half where it’s forcing shots. I want to see more consistency in right decisions being made.

The Heat in the Clutch

The Heat in the clutch was what helped them a lot in previous seasons, mainly the 2022-23 season. That is the difference maker compared to the previous seasons. Anthony Chiang tweeted this earlier, where the Heat are 13-19 in clutch games this year but were 77-57 in the previous three seasons. Teams over or under achieving in the clutch can easily be a difference between 5-10 wins. That was kind of what we were seeing with the Heat and the Bulls in the last couple of seasons.

Here are their clutch stats over the years:

• 2025: 32 games(13-19) / 96.8 ORTG / 109.7 DRTG / -12.9 Net RTG

• 2024: 42(22-20) / 100.0 / 113.5 / -13.5

• 2023: 54(32-22) / 113.3 / 98.6 / +14.7

• 2022: 38(23-15) / 101.1 / 100.8 / +0.3

I also looked at their record with games that had 3 point differential in the last 30 seconds:

• 2025: 10-12

• 2024: 12-10

• 2023: 23-15

• 2022: 10-9

The reason I also wanted to look that is so many games come down to, honestly, luck, to some extent. It’s not luck that they can find themselves constantly in those situations. That just shows a team is constantly good enough to be in games but not good enough to take over or get beat badly. Finishing and closing out games is important and that is a trait of a great team.

But a lot of the possessions that can come then are so situational that a possession that ends in an open 3pt being made here and there can easily swing a team’s record significantly. That was my argument why I didn’t think the team was good enough last year or the year before solely because of record. Record can be misleading because every narrative will change around a team if one single possession changes.

Do we look at the Heat this week any different about them if Herro makes that tough pull up over McBride? What if Duncan didn’t step out of bounds? What if Adebayo got called for the foul against the Wolves?

Those possessions were tipped in their favour two years ago(because it’s that 2023 season that skews the percentage and stats in the clutch) and that changes the narrative around the team because who doesn’t want 3-5 additional wins in the standings.

Looking further into it, particularly at the player’s stats, you can also see why the struggles come up. This isn’t official “clutch” stats but PBP Stats’ high and very high leverage minutes:

• Adebayo: 71pts on 54% eFG and 55% TS with 22% usage

• Herro: 72pts on 36% eFG & 39% TS with 33% usage

• Rozier: 26pts on 37% eFG & 42% TS with 17% usage

The top three players in possessions played in those minutes are all shooting quite badly and the guards have horrific efficiency. Herro and Rozier shoot a combine 15/53 from 3pt!

Compare that to 2023:

• Adebayo: 98pts on 51% eFG & 63% TS with 23% usage

• Herro: 109pts on 66% eFG & 69% TS with 26% usage

• Butler: 108pts on 49% eFG & 59% TS with 34% usage

A big difference. Everyone was able to score efficiently, particularly when it comes to drawing fouls and getting easy shots there.

I mean, that’s not breaking news. Teams do better in the clutch if top players perform better. This year, they haven’t and in a very limited, small sample size, a shot here and there can make all the difference in the end result.

For the most part, I don’t know if there are some glaring reasons for why that happened. Clutch numbers are one of the least predictable numbers year over year. There was an article in 2019 by Seth Partnow that analysed the “clutch factor” on The Athletic. This is a 23 year sample up to 2019.

This applies to players too. Here some random “clutch” players and top players when it comes to their TS% in the last three years:

• Stephen Curry: 61% / 69% / 56%

• Kevin Durant: 62% / 50% / 61%

• LeBron James: 64% / 62% / 56%

• Luka Doncic: 50% / 61% / 54%

• De’Aaron Fox: 60% / 50% / 61%

• DeMar DeRozan: 51% / 62% / 60%

• Jimmy Butler: 60% / 46% / 61%

Some are more consistent than others. Some fluctuate wildly. This may sound just too simple but because the sample size is around ~150 minutes, there is a lot of randomness.

The Heat aren’t getting killed in the clutch on the defensive end. Everything comes down to the offense and a lot of it will just come down to unfortunate luck this year. They aren’t at a level where they are able to close out games like a good team but they can always find themselves in that situation and hope for some lucky bounces.