The Culture Report: Herro & Duncan Cooking, Herro's Impact Beyond 3s & Are the Heat back?

Dec 13, 2024

Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. There will be additional breakdowns and pieces either on Simply Ballin or AUCH that dives in deeper into other topics and questions compiled here with additional thoughts. Following that is a Weekly Ramble to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.

What’s Been Heating Up

We’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the games, a bunch of film and Xs & Os, and any newsworthy topics that arise during the week. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.

Games of the week:

121-111 WIN vs Phoenix Suns
122-113 WIN vs Cleveland Cavaliers
114-104 WIN vs Toronto Raptors

Key stats:

ORTG: 123.3(114.1, 127.1, 129.0)
DRTG: 113.1(105.1, 117.7, 116.8)
eFG%: 58.2% vs 53.3%
TOV%: 13.9% vs 11.7%
ORB%: 30.6% vs 22.2%
FTr: 25.2 vs 19.6

Player stats:

121-111 WIN vs Phoenix Suns Game Thoughts

This was probably one of their better games all season long, though it should be noted the Suns were without Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic, and Ryan Dunn. Regardless, how they executed on both ends felt better than usual.

Offensively, everyone was having a good game at different points in time. They got contributions from everyone:

Jimmy Butler: 24/7/4 on 8/11 2pt, 1/1 3pt, 5/5 ft, +11
Bam Adebayo: 25/12/8 on 8/12 2pt, 1/4 3pt, 6/8 ft, +22
Duncan Robinson: 19/2/4 on 2/4 2pt, 5/8 3pt, +20
Tyler Herro: 17/8/7 on 7/8 2pt, 1/4 3pt, +20

Starting off with Robinson:

He was the spark in the first half, where had 14 of his 19 points and went 4/5 from deep. He led both teams in points and efficiency. The first play of the game was for him coming off a screen, before flowing into a PNR with Adebayo for the open pull up 3pt. Following that, it was a 3pt in transition, a relocation 3pt after Adebayo drawing a double in the post, and another handoff that took the switching defense by surprise. Soon, he was getting run off the line and still made them pay. My favorite play was with him taking that ISO drive kicking it out before flowing again to a handoff and attacking the rim.

Herro had arguably his most impressive game of the season for me, which is kind of surprising seeing as he only finished with 17 points on 12 shots and shot 25% from 3pt — he’s had three 30pt+ games and one 40pt game and this looked better.

The reason for that is the fact he shot only 1/4 from 3pt and was still impactful. The shooting wasn’t and neither was the volume and it didn’t matter. He was still scoring inside and moving the ball which got him a near triple-double. He had a handful of solid drives off the catch that got him right to the rim for a good finish. He also had many more defensive highlights, whether it was defending Bradley Beal well or playing the passing lanes.

Moving on to the scoring leader, Adebayo had one of the better bounce-back games. Another near triple-double for him.

He had a quiet first half, only finishing with 6 points on 3/8 shooting with 3 assists. That was disappointing, but that flipped in the second half. It wasn’t anything flashy. He had a jump shot here and there, but it was him being so aggressive on the glass that he had four offensive rebounds all leading to three shots at the rim and one trip to the line. That’s eight points right there that he hustled to get. Add his playmaking as a hub with the handoffs, and this was a great all-around game.

Finally, we had Butler having a somewhat typical, quiet game from him. It’s wild that he can finish with 24 points on 9/12 shooting and 5/5 from the line but it still being quiet.

It all had to do with how he got those points. He started off with a good backcut to the rim, and a few trips in transition that resulted in easy shots at the rim. That was his game until the fourth, where he took it upon himself to score nine straight points to give the Heat a 10-point lead. Three straight possessions with him getting a 3pt and two consecutive drives leading to an and-one.

Defensively, the game could’ve been better. That was the reason why this was a game in the first place. The Suns had a 123.4 ORTG with a 61.8% TS in the first half. They were efficient. They didn’t turn the ball over. They also rebounded on 29% of their misses. That’s why they had 21 second-chance points — almost a fifth of their points.

The paint defense was better than usual, only allowing 32 points on 16/33 shooting. The volume, nor the efficiency was good for them. They just got cooked from 3pt.

In all but the third quarter, the Suns shot over 40%: 6/12 → 5/12 → 2/10 → 3/7. That third quarter was also a bunch of good, quality looks. But that was the game plan. The Suns had a 50% 3pt rate. They forced those kinds of looks by not giving the chance for either Booker or Beal to get going, as they finished with 36 points on 11/34 shooting. Their defense against those two was key. They never game the daylight to get going by constantly showing help and doubling.

Even considering their injuries, this was a well-executed game on both ends of the floor.

122-113 WIN vs Cleveland Cavaliers Game Thoughts

This was the best win of the season considering where the Cavaliers have been throughout the season. They’ve been one of the most dominant teams in the league so far, as well as having the league’s best record. So, to win the way did was in a way a statement game.

Surprisingly, it all starts with their offense. They had a 127.1 ORTG with 59.0% eFG. They had a great shooting night going 16/37(43%) to go along with 50 points in the paint, where they shot 19/25 at the rim!

It was another strong collective effort to go along with Herro leading the way with his 34 points on 10/19 shooting(5/10 2pt, 5/9 3pt, 9/9 ft) and 7 assists. He was the best guard on the court:

Starting off the game, he had some timely self-created shots that were needed — a quick pull up off a PNR and two drives into the paint. But it was the third quarter where he erupted for 19 points. It was 3s and layups. A couple of those drives were pretty damn good.

Robinson continued to give them a spark and reliable 3pt shooting with him finishing with 23 points(second highest on the team) on 7/11 shooting.

Adebayo flirted with almost a triple double again with 16/13/6 on 7/14 shooting and 2/4 3s. His defense was more important in defending all of the PNRs led by Garland and Mitchell. And Butler added another quiet 18 points on 6/12 shooting with 6/8 ft.

Similarly to the Suns game, this also could’ve been a better defensive game. The Cavaliers had a 117.7 ORTG with 55.8% eFG, though it was much, much better with Adebayo on where it was 95.9 ORTG.

They did give up some open good quality 3s, particularly in the Love minutes. They ended up going 14/33 from 3pt and that’s what kept them in the game because they shot roughly 51% from inside the arc. They couldn’t finish at the rim , only going 15/29 but made up for it going 10/17 in the paint.

One key stat, though, is that they also didn’t turn the ball over at all. Only 8.3% of their possessions.

Following one of their best wins of the same, they had another one of the best wins of the season.

114-104 WIN vs Toronto Raptors Game Thoughts

The Heat continue their win streak on this home stand, as they take care of business. This had to be a win. The Raptors haven’t had the best week going 0-4 and losing Scottie Barnes. A team that’s 7-19 without the best player shouldn’t be that hard to take care of.

But, the Heat were the Heat and they didn’t start off the game well. It was one of those ones where they had a 85.2 offensive rating and couldn’t get anything going.

They also started the second quarter allowing the Raptors to go on a run themselves. The Raptors were cooking on the break. That’s how they got almost all of their points in the first. That resulted in points in the paint just being their offense. As they did in previous two games, the Raptors cooked in the paint(56 points), especially in the first half with 36 of their 51.

The Heat answered right back after going down 41-25 to end the half going on a 33-10 run. It was 3s after 3s after 3s. They made five 3s during that run.

The second half was better, particularly defensively where the Raptors only had 20 points in the paint and shot 10/24(41%). It’s going to be tough to win any game shooting that poorly inside the paint. That’s what it came down to. They shot 18/33 at the rim and RJ Barrett was responsible for 3/11.

The Heat didn’t do anything special offensively themselves after either. The Raptors just couldn’t get anything going inside and their offense wasn’t going to make this a game.

And in the fourth, it was all Adebayo. That was his quarter right from the start with the bench unit. It was him, Dru Smith, Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. They were going to him in isolation to start and he was doing his thing.

In the end, they took care of business. That’s better than what was happening in the past where every game was almost always going to be a clutch game.

Herro’s Impact Beyond 3s

Before these two games, this was Herro’s 3pt shooting:

4/12 vs Hornets
4/10 vs Raptors
6/12 vs Raptors
2/10 vs Celtics
9/16 vs Lakers

This week, it’s been 1/4, 5/9, and 4/7. He has yet to crack double-digit attempts and his presence has been felt. When you look at his scoring inside the arc, you’ll see him going 7/8, 5/10, and 5/6, whilst adding 7, 7, and 4 assists. That’s giving the offense something more if either the 3s aren’t falling or you can’t even generate 3s.

Here are his attacks inside the arc:

He’s been way more aggressive, comfortable, and confident in attacking. In the game against the Raptors, he was beating guys off the dribble and getting right to the rim.

In his PNR, he’s been able to counter getting run off the line by not settling for those long pull-ups. That has been the biggest shift. Even going further, there hasn’t been many of those early floaters in the paint. This time around, whenever he’s had a low volume shooting the ball, he’s supplementing that with deep drives to the rim. This has been the difference maker in this season.

Heat Check

Here is a weekly ramble where it’s me simply ranting about the Heat and giving a “heat” check on them. No plan. No script. There’s not much analysis or breakdowns here. It’s me giving my thoughts and opinions on the state of the team and where I’m at with them. Plus some additional thoughts I may have that could be interesting or anything newsworthy to add.

Are the… are the Heat back? Are they turning the corner and should be seen as one of the better teams in the season? Most fanbases, predictions, and models had them around the play-in range fighting for that spot.

And well, right now they are still 13-10, which puts them in fifth place and only two games back from third, but also around three games back from eighth. It’s still too early to make any conclusions.

Last year at this point time, they were also in the exact same spot. They were 13-10 and in that same seed range. There’s nothing standings wise that has changed for them. They’re neither under or over achieving.

Now, there’s also the case that this year is better because the offense is different and the growth from Herro. The record might be the same but how they look everywhere is different or better.

That’s what prompted me to tweet this:

The Heat are top 10 on offense and for some, the takeaway it’s that the offense is fixed and good enough to compete. The whole offensive system is different and you’re getting the play from Herro like this. The signs are encouraging.

But that’s only that encouraging if the bar was only to improve from the bottom 10 offense that we saw the last two years. That has shifted and it has been significant enough to raise the floor of this team drastically. Now, they’ve gone back to a similar 2020 and 2022 offense but are at the same time, still behind on addressing what was the issue in those two seasons, too.

The glaring hole is and has continue to be that they only have had Jimmy Butler as the player capable of providing rim pressure, force defenses to adjust, and more resilient with whatever the defense throws at them. I’m still worried about the offense if the 3s aren’t falling as much or against better defensive teams.

But also surprisingly now, though, in these last two weeks, the Heat do have a 121.2 offense, which would rank first in that span(fourth overall), but have dropped defensively to 114.2, which is 16th in that span and 14th overall.

Outside of that, we have Herro balling out still. In December so far, he’s averaging 25.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, whilst shooting 46.6% from 3pt on 9.7 attempts. 23 games into the season and he is still playing like he deserves that All-Star nod.

Adebayo has shifted into a different role and that has been working out. In the last 10 games, he has a 31.1% AST to 22.3% USG. Compare that to the first 13 games where it was 17.1% to 21.8%. He’s assisting more than he’s finishing the possession himself and it’s a significant difference.

There have also been plenty off court shenanigans with Bernie Lee(Butler’s agent) and Shams Charania. At this point, I have no idea what’s going to happen with Butler’s future here. There’s never been this much noise, especially coming from the national media, and that’s different.

This season was always going to be different with the lack of the extension and the Heat not being willing to give it to him right away. Then you combine with how the season ended and the whole Pat Riley presser calling Butler out, it feels like there is a lot of smoke. But this is also going to be a lot of “sources” saying one thing and then others saying something else. No one is really going to know what’s going to happen.

But as the season goes on, this is definitely something to monitor, whether it’s the team’s play overall or how Butler is looking like.

Right now, it’s focusing on the basketball. The Heat continue to have a solid schedule coming up that they can easily win: Pistons, Thunder, Magic, Nets, and Magic in their next give. Outside of the Thunder, with injuries at play with other teams, this can easily be a 4-1 stretch.

Butler’s Most Efficient Season

Speaking of Butler and his play, I recently had a full breakdown going through how exactly he’s having his most efficient season of his career:

How is Jimmy Butler having the most efficient season of his career

John Jablonka

Dec 11

Read full story

A combination of playing more off-ball, having lower usage, and still being a very smart offensive player that is capable of exploiting defenders on or off the ball is a reason for this.

A Deep Dive Into the Starters’ Offense

As we also touched on the offense being top 10, the starters offense has been even better with around a 126 offensive rating since November 18th.

A Deep Dive Into the Starters' Offense