The Culture Report: Herro's 3 30pt games, Heat's approach going forward
Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. There will be additional breakdowns and pieces either on Simply Ballin or AUCH that dives in deeper into other topics and questions compiled here with additional thoughts. Following that is a Weekly Ramble to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.
So, a big week. Starting off with What’s Been Heating Up, we go through the four games — Blazers, Clippers, Lakers, and Nuggets. A tough stretch going only 1-3, with a lot of concerning question marks on the offensive end because of the defense adjusting their PNR game.
But the bright spot was Herro still managing to score 30 points during the week, including three straight 30+ games.
Then heading into the Heat Check, I go through some more thoughts on what the approach should be and what should be prioritised before the trade deadline. I also touch on the Heat’s performance vs better competition.
Hope you enjoy it!
What’s Been Heating Up
We’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the games, a bunch of film and Xs & Os. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.
Key stats:
ORTG: 112.7
DRTG: 118.5
eFG%: 55.9% vs 56.1%
TOV%: 13.8% vs 10.1%
ORB%: 19.4% vs 24.0%
FTr: 15.9 vs 12.8
119-98 WIN vs Portland Trail Blazers
A good convincing win against a team that they should’ve beaten without a problem. That was the case for pretty much the entire game. The Blazers had a one-point lead to start the game and it was tied only four times. Once the Heat got control of the game, it was essentially wraps.
Heading into the half they did end up getting a 20-point lead. That almost went away to start the third because Anfernee Simons decided to take matters into his own hands. He finished the game with 28 points on 3/9 2pt, 7/14 3pt, and 1/1 ft, and 17 of them came in that third quarter alone
But that also got didn’t matter because the Heat had their own guard doing what was necessary to get the win. Tyler Herro finished with 32 points on 4/8 2pt, 7/14 3pt, and 3/4 ft with 5 assists. Many of his 3s were timely to continue to extend the lead:
The Heat also had Nikola Jovic with a very efficient game. 21 points on 4/5 2pt, 4/7 3pt and 1/1 ft with 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
They simply outmatched the Blazers and you also shoot 19/44 from 3pt and the Blazers end up struggling shooting 13/45, it’s tough not to win a game in those circumstances.
98-109 LOSS vs Los Angeles Clippers
After one great game, we’re back to not scoring 100 points. Granted, the Clippers are fourth defensively, per Cleaning the Glass. They have the talent in different roles to make all of that work.
This was also the Heat’s first game without Bam Adebayo, which plays a big part in their poor offense. Adebayo is their hub and he’s their best decision-maker at that. Without his screens and working to get others involved, they were already at a disadvantage.
Don’t get fooled by their 35 points in the first quarter. Points were being scored and they did have a 152.2 ORTG in that quarter, but the process of how they did it wasn’t showing anything to show they weren’t struggling offensively.
That also got made worse than it is with them shooting 17/52 from 3pt. Over 60% of their shots were 3s and they shot 33%. But again, this was more than just a game lost offensively due to variance.
Herro had another high-scoring game with 32 points on 5/7 2pt, 4/13 3pt, and 10/12 ft with 7 assists. A lot of those 3s did feel rushed and were shot early in the clock many times. That’s also how got 9 of his 12 free throws. One other important part was his second half scoring where he scored 14 points on 3/5 2pt but only 2/8 from 3pt.
No one else had it offensively either. Nikola Jovic scored 5 points on 10 shots. He also shot 1/7 from 3pt. Jaime Jaquez Jr with only 10 points on 4/9 shooting, and it’s the attempts that stood out — a lot of that had to do with the Clippers putting Zubac on him.
All of the offensive struggles contributed to the poor defense at times. That’s how the Clippers made their run and never looked back. They scored 27 points off of turnovers and 27 fast break points. Their offense wasn’t hitting unless it was in transition. Even when the Heat cleaned that up, it was too late to make a run.
108-117 LOSS vs Los Angeles Lakers
This was a typical Heat game. By that I mean, it was full of hope, it was great basketball in some stretches, and making me think that it should be a good win. At the half, I was thinking “Wow, what a great first half, everyone played pretty well” and my immediate thought after was “Okay, how are they going to hurt me now”. And they hurt me quickly.
They had a solid first half, getting a 12-point lead, and a lot of that came from going 10/18 from 3pt — almost half of their points from downtown at the half. It also helped that the Lakers were 5/16.
That was how they got the lead in the first place. Come the second half, though, the shooting cooled off and bounced back for the Lakers. But more importantly, turnovers killed the Heat. They had a 23.9% TOV in the second half. The Lakers, on the other hand, only 4.3% TOV and also 70.6% TS. They couldn’t miss and were taking care of the possessions.
Five different players had at least two turnovers with Herro leading the way with seven. A big part of that was how they defended the PNR. They were icing it and not allowing him to use the screens. They also amped up the pressure and forced him to pass — he didn’t capitalize, unfortunately.
He still finished with 34 points on 5/6 2pt, 7/12 3pt, and 3/3 ft. But the change in coverage did affect some of his impact later in the game:
But the game was also lost a lot on the defensive end. The Lakers picked apart the zone defense. The Heat settled into the zone for far too long and it cost them the game. The Lakers shot 14/19 in the paint. You combine that with some timely LeBron James buckets(I don’t know how he still manages to close games out like that) and it’s wraps.
113-133 LOSS vs Denver Nuggets
And we end the week with a blowout loss. Not sure what I was expecting here but it was kind of rough. This was one of the worst defensive performances and there wasn’t anything that the Heat could’ve done.
The Nuggets shot 34/59 from 2pt, and 16/33 from 3pt. They gave up open looks from 3pt. They were losing guys off-ball. The transition defense was out of place. No one could stay in front of the PNR. It was a mess.
And when it’s Nikola Jokic doing the damage, that’s going to get picked apart because Jokic is the ultimate cheat code.
Offensively, there was nothing. Herro led the team with 22 points on 8/10 2pt, and 2/7 3pt with four assists. Outside of that, it was nothing else. No one else scored more than 18. They also shot 9/33, which didn’t help.
Some of the struggles came in the same way as they did against the Lakers. The defense in the PNR takes everything out if it’s not a traditional drop coverage. With the Nuggets showing and icing, that stalls stuff. Then the handoff offense with Adebayo being the hub also takes forever to get into, which makes the offense much harder to generate.
There was also the elephant in the room. Butler came back from his seven game suspension and that was not great. He finished with 18 points on 7/13 2pt, 0/2 3pt, and 4/4 ft with 2 assists. He wasn’t involved, though. A lot of the time, he was just doing the work as a cutter, and off-ball player. There were a handful of on-ball possessions, but it wasn’t really there. And that’s not going through the poor defense he played all game, especially in the PNR.
Not much else to talk about the game. This was a bad one.
Herro’s Triple 30
So, Herro averaged 30 for this week. He had three straight games scoring over 30 and he did it all so very efficiently. He shot 22/31 2pt, 20/46 3pt, and 16/19 ft. That’s averaging 30 on 70.3% TS! That’s impressive.
A lot of it comes from his 3pt. That’s where he continues to get most of the scoring, but it’s also how he’s done this week. He actually struggled shooting the ball on easy shots. He shot 6/19 on C&S 3s and also 8/25 on shots within 2 seconds of touch time. He went 6/17 on open 3s, too.
Where he did better was off the dribble. He is 14/27 on pull-ups:
4/7 off 1 dribble
5/9 off 2 dribbles
4/9 off 3-6 dribbles
1/2 off 7+ dribbles
10/20 on shots with more than 2 dribbles. That’s doing a lot more creating. This is where you see those pull-ups against drop or also those tough stepbacks recently that created quite some space for him. And then, he still adds a handful of off-the-catch that helps everyone else if he’s one pass away:
But equally as impressive is his shooting 71% from 2pt! He’s 15/21 from less than 10ft. And again a lot of them come with more touch times. He’s 18/26 on 2s with at least 2 seconds of touch time:
Very impressive week of scoring for Herro.
Things that caught my eye
All links to clips are to Twitter
I like the potential of the defense with Haywood, Jovic, and Ware
Heat need to learn how to execute better when they have mismatches. This play against the Blazers stood out
Highsmith going 4/5 from deep against the Blazers and giving you 5 steals. Playing the role of a 3&D guy perfectly
With no Adebayo, we had more Love being the hub in Delay actions and that also works with his decision-making and passing
Herro was getting denied like hell throughout the game. This defense by Kawhi Leonard was impressive
Rozier’s questionable shot selection. There was a sidestep into a contested 3pt, a pullback into a contested middy after missing a pass and lane to the rim. It was also missing wide-open layups
I’ve been liking the Duncan-Jovic connection in their 2 man game. That happened a couple of times with the defenses switching. Clip number one and clip number two
Big thing that stood out was Jaquez being guarded by Zubac. Heat did try to counter by having Jaquez screen at times or use him as a hub, but it led to these possessions
The Clippers scored 41 points on 40 possessions off a missed shot, 22 on 29 off a made shot but also scored 20 on 11 off a steal
Rozier continues to kill me with some of the shot selection. Within 30s, he handles the ball and gets into a PNR to go for a long PU 2pt with 14s on the clock(it goes in). The issue with Rozier when a shot does go in, it’s usually followed by something like an immediate stepback contested 3pt coming 3s after crossing the halfcourt.
You also get this from Rozier… which is just him dribbling the ball for the entire possession until throwing a grenade
The Heat’s PNR offense is something else if they can’t go against drop
We get a lot more Jovic-Ware PNR that end in lobs! That’s great to see that chemistry grow
Rozier played much better against the Nuggets. He cut out pretty much all of the WTF moments and questionable shot selections. He moved the ball more. He got his through-pushing pace. I liked this Rozier a lot more
Jovic’s and Herro’s defense against the Nuggets was quite yikes
Heat Check
Here is a weekly ramble where it’s me simply ranting about the Heat and giving a “heat” check on them and everything that’s been going on. No plan. No script. It’s me giving my thoughts and opinions on the state of the team and where I’m at with them. Plus, it’s looking at some interesting questions/takeaways that have stood out that.
Last week, I talked about how I still don’t know how to feel about the team. I know how I feel about the team. They are a mid-team. They may be even worse than a mid-team. But that’s where the Heat are right now. They are a team that can look great in stretches. But then they will also be the team that looks awful in stretches too.
Some of the season has been a roller-coaster to good play followed by bad, then good, then ba,d, and so on. This is their net rating in games:
Game 1-10: -1.5
Game 11-20: +5.7
Game 21-30: 1.9
Game 31-40: -4.0
We are now almost exactly halfway through the season and they are 15th in net with -0.1 per CTG.
That’s why I also said that this should be a season that they don’t focus on that. If you win, you win. If you lose, you lose. The goal should just be focusing on player development. And that’s why the big theme the last couple of weeks has been the kids hooping. But that feels like an up-and-down thing, in terms of prioritizing that.
I’d like to see more of an emphasis on development. I’d now rather see experimenting with everything to see what you may have in the first place.
That’s also tough to do when there’s still the Butler saga that continues to be the story time and time again. I am done with that. The Heat need to be done with that too. It’s too much of a distraction and I don’t know how much it even helps to have him on the court — there’s clearly an issue with the management(and perhaps coaching, too) that is affecting his play, too. That’s not something you want in this stage of the build.
This also brings me to my next point of how are they going to approach the deadline and the season going forward.
Making a deal to move on from Butler remains the biggest priority before the trade deadline. I do not want to see Butler on the team past that date(this isn’t anything to do with him personally or being anti-Jimmy).
But even then, what’s the approach beyond that? Will there be any other moves that could potentially be selling off on other players and leaning more into the youth? They have stated that flexibility is their big priority but can that also be accomplished by looking to get more young players into this core? Or is it literally anyone that can help and is on expiring?
The Heat have nine games before the deadline. That’s still plenty of time to figure things out and pivot.
Because post-deadline, I want to see them just be young and look to see what they have with everyone with no expectations. At this point, it’s also not a big deal about keeping the pick or not — there are arguments for and against which picks they should keep. If they play Jovic, Jaquez, and Ware for 30 minutes and they win, so be it.
Looking ahead, they have a mixed stretch until the deadline. But so much is up in the air, and a lot of it has to do with how they deal with Butler. That needs to be addressed first before anything else because it’s impossible to make any thoughts on what happens or what should happen.
They haven’t been good against good competition
I have touched on this multiple times where the Heat haven’t been great against not just great or good competition, but anyone competent. If they go against anyone that isn’t bad on either end, their offense or defense suffers.
Here’s their ORTG per CTG:
Season: 113.1
Vs top 10 net: 108.2(10 games)
Vs middle 10: 115.7(18)
Vs bottom 10: 113.6(12)
Vs top 10 defense: 105.4(11)
Vs middle 10: 115.1(14)
Vs bottom 10: 117.1(15)
Here’s their DRTG:
Season: 113.2
Vs top 10 net: 116.0(10)
Vs middle 10: 115.9(18)
Vs bottom 10: 106.7(12)
Vs top 10 offense: 118.1(11)
Vs middle 10: 115.1(14)
Vs bottom 10: 107.8(15)
They just haven’t been able to step up on either end of the floor if they go against anyone good.
They have a 112.7 ORTG and a 116.9 DRTG against teams ahead of them in the standings right now(ones that would be faced in the playoffs or in the play-in). That’s not a good sign if they’re looking to even compete.
Against the top six teams(Magic, Knicks, Bucks, Pacers, Celtics, Cavaliers) that you’d face in any of the rounds, even with Adebayo and Herro on they are a -21.3 in 250 minutes with a 104.9 ORTG.
Now, obviously they aren’t looking to win, so this shouldn’t matter as much. But it’s just a reminder that if the team is looking to make a push to compete because they believe they can make some noise… it’s very unlikely. The approach, expectations or moves shouldn’t be considered a potential chance in the playoffs.
The only thing about the playoffs that should be on their mind is if they make it by accident, but not something you aim to do.
Kids have been hooping
As it’s been for a while, there’s been a lot of focus on the kids playing more and playing better. Ever since the Butler suspension, Jovic, Jaquez, and Ware received more minutes and more responsibilities.
I went through it in more depth earlier this week for All U Can Heat:
The Heatle Things
To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stats, lineups, or anything that I found fun, as well as compiling some other content that I found interesting.
Jared Dubin had a piece going through teams playing all kinds of different defenses on his Last Night In Basketball here!. There was this chart and look where the Heat are. The Heat have consistently been the team that changes their defense on a night to night basis. In other words, Spoelstra is a sicko and a wizard when it comes to defense
Ware’s rebounding and the team’s Opp ORB% with him on. It’s still not great, but there’s progress
Last year, I tweeted some stats for Herro, Adebayo, and Butler against top/bottom 10 defenses. I did this again this year! Not so surprisingly, Herro is scoring 26 points per 75 on 55% eFG & 59% TS with 29% usage against top 10 defenses, though the team does still have a 105 ORTG. Butler and Bam, on the other hand, scored 11 at 42% and 15 at 47%. That’s concerning
Herro’s rim frequency has been trending downward. It’s at 16.9% for the season, which is the third highest in his career, but down to what he started with. In the first 30 games, he had one game with zero shots at the rim. In 2025 so far, he already has five of them. 16 shots at the rim in 10 games
On the other hand, he’s also exceeding so many other milestones compared to last year. He already has more games with 60% TS, more games with 30% AST, more games with 5 3s made, and more games with 5+ shots at the rim. It’s night and day compared to last year
Staying on Herro, he’s making 49.3% of his 3.4 wide-open 3s. The only player ahead is De’Andre Hunter. There’s more, though. He ranks first in deep 3-point shooting talent! He’s also 18th in deep 3pt shooting shot creation, 1st in shot making despite being 360th in openness rating and 247th in shot quality, per BBall-Index. Here are his ranks over the years
This was an interesting tweet from Couper Moorhead showing where he passes. In 2020, he averaged 6.9 pass touches per 100 in those areas. He’s now doing it at 16.7. That’s a wild jump. But before you take this away as a Bam thing, this is also a lot more on the team.
This was my favorite play. Jaquez, Jovic, and Ware are ll working together to create good offense
And that’s everything for the Culture Report. Thank you if you got to the end and hopefully you enjoyed it!