The Culture Report: Larsson Earning The Trust, Getting Bam Going, 3rd Quarter vs Kings, Suns' Offense
Welcome to The Culture Report! A weekly report going through the thoughts, discussion, and analysis of the Miami Heat. This is the place for you to get up to speed with everything that’s important, interesting, or simply fun — whether that’s news, specific games, box-scores, actions, plays, signings, trades, trends, financials, schemes + everything else you can think off — and digging deeper into the how’s and why’s through film breakdowns, stats, and analysis.
Games from the week:
118-98 WIN vs Washington Wizards, 2/11/24
110-111 LOSS vs Sacramento Kings, 4/11/24
112-115 LOSS vs Phoenix Suns, 6/11/24
Stats from the week:
ORTG:(116.1, 119.6, 115.5)
DRTG:(95.7, 122.0, 117.3)
eFG%: 50.5 vs 54.0
TOV%: 11.3 vs 14.5
ORB%: 33.3 vs 25.4
FTr: 21.0 vs 15.9
Key performances
Bam Adebayo: 32 points on 9/19 2pt, 3/5 3pt, & 5/6 ft with 14 rebounds(5 offensive) vs Wizards
Tyler Herro: 27 points on 4/7 2pt, 5/11 3pt, & 4/5 ft with 6 rebounds & 3 assists vs Kings
Tyler Herro: 28 points on 4/6 2pt, 5/9 3pt, & 5/5 ft with 6 assists
What’s Been Heating Up
To bring you up to speed with everything, we’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the games and a bunch of film and Xs & Os from the week, whether it’s here or some additional pieces at All U Can Heat. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.
Getting Bam Adebayo going
Pelle Larsson is earning the trust already
The third quarter collapse vs the Kings
Suns’ main option on offense
Weekly Game Thoughts
So far, it’s like the only games that the Heat have been able to win are against not great teams and it’s pretty much in the same way that they end up losing.
Let’s just get the Wizards game out of the way. That had to be a game that they won convincingly. There shouldn’t have been any concern that they wouldn’t be able to win. For the most part, that’s how it was, but at the same time, it’s also slightly concerning how they were winning and it again could’ve bit them if the Wizards were good.
That was a game won with defense. They had a 95.7 defensive rating and that should’ve been lower than usual if the Wizards didn’t end up getting 35 fastbreak points. The defense wasn’t an issue. It was more that they had trouble generating easy looks and needed so many second-chance points to get around average offense. It shouldn’t be that difficult — but at least we had Adebayo go off for 32 points.
Then we get to the two games that both had such frustrating endings. Losing on a game-winner to Domantas Sabonis and then a couple of days later losing another close game when you couldn’t even get a shot off to potentially tie it.
The issue with these two games, though, was the defense. That’s where they lost both games either by giving up a run because of poor defense, getting hunted, transition, or poor execution down the stretch.
This wasn’t a pretty week.
Getting Adebayo Going Right Away
After a slow start to the season, both in terms of usage and efficiency, the Heat made a significant effort to get him going right away against the Wizards — perfect timing with the opponent for that kind of approach.
This was a very, very isolation and post-up-heavy game for Adebayo and that was felt right away. That was their first possession for him and it carried on throughout the game. That’s part of the reason why he ended with 24-shot attempts (though not all of them were self-created). He had 13 possessions whether he created for himself or others. Of those 13, seven were that ended with him — seven self-created possessions is a lot.
For the most part, a lot of those looks is a mix of hooks, fadeaways and pull ups. All the kind of shots that, most often, is a win for the defense. This is where there is an issue at that volume(though, in the context of this game, who cares, it’s the Wizards).
There were also a handful of possessions like these:
That’s where he was able to take advantage of the right matchup whether it was because he had the speed or size advantage. He did manage to get drives at the rim and draw some fouls. That is what’s needed.
One other small point when it comes to getting Adebayo going is even if you do it in a non-ISO/post where it’s him attacking in the PNR, it’s still ends up in the same thing:
All this does is technically give him more reps in creating his own offense again. This also isn’t solely an Adebayo issue, but any team involving any player that has around double digit possessions where it’s them creating for themselves, it limits them.
There is a reason why you 100% heard at some point in your life that you need to move the ball — hell, you’d probably hear that even if you are shooting well.
In this game, he ended up with 12/24 overall but went 4/13 outside the rim inside the arc. That’s a lot of shots to get a player going. And if those shots aren’t falling, it’s not pretty.
That’s where we also got this against the Suns:
They are all similar looks. It’s those tough jumpers that he’s looking to create himself in the mid-range, with a few sprinkles of drives to the rim. For the most part again, though, it’s relying on tough shots after tough shots.
But when you also just have a bad odd game even making the easy ones, that all piles up and that’s how you end up 5/21.
Pelle Larsson Already Earning The Trust
So, Pelle Larsson played 6:15 to start the season against the Orlando Magic where it was a blowout game in garbage time. He, of course, didn’t see any court time in the next three games, until the Wizards game where he played ~13 and had an okay game. It wasn’t anything special or bad. He did his job without standing out in either direction, which in certain circumstances, is a big plus.
Herro was in foul trouble and Duncan Robinson wasn’t with the team. Someone had to get minutes and that fell on Larsson. That’s when having a player that you can plug-in without hurting or changing the team is needed. He showed he can go out there and do his job.
That’s why it shouldn’t be surprising that in the next two games, he played 20+ minutes and was tasked with guarding the worst matchups possible. He was asked to defend De’Aaron Fox, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, and Kevin Durant all in certain moments.
That’s why he also was trusted to play seven minutes in a close game against the Kings down the stretch. He even played four in the fourth against the Suns. The rookie has already earned the trust to play in the fourth in close games against good opponents.
The box score won’t necessarily show this:
7 points on 2/2 2pt, 1/2 3pt, 1 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal
13 points on 1/1 2pt, 3/5 3pt, 2/3 ft, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal
6 points on 2/2 2pt, 0/3 3pt, 2/3 ft, 3 assists
They don’t really show he’s done much at all. There wasn’t even a big game either that was hot shooting or one of those random games by role players.
The biggest reason why is this, though:
It’s the defense. He has been smart in his off-ball positioning whether making the right rotation, digging, or stunting. But a lot of his effort shows up in individual 1v1 defense. He tries. He has been a solid screen navigator, where he either goes through it with ease or tries like hell to recover and get a contest from behind. With his size, he also hasn’t been giving up anything easy either.
Some clips:
1st clip: He’s already early helping at the nail with Sabonis rolling. He recovers well on the closeout vs Murray. Once the pass is made, he establishes himself again near the nail ready to help and stunt on the Ellis drive, which completely deterred him
2nd clip: He’s staying attached on Booker and comes off the screen to contest his 3pt shot
3rd clips: He’s up on Booker and pressuring him by just having active hands. When he looks to drive, he gets closer to him stay attached and shadows that drive well without giving anything up
5th clip: Great 1v1 defense against Monk where he doesn’t let him get that drive and forces a pass
6th clip: Stunts on the drive and makes a quick reaction to rotate the next open man
A lot of those clips aren’t ones that show anything wow or scream he’s a plus defender or any of the sorts. This isn’t meant to overreact and say he’s like that defensively. But this goes back to the previous point where he simply does things that go unnoticed but that is a good thing. He’s not getting beat. He’s not out of position. He’s not missing rotations. He doesn’t have a highlight of defensive mistakes. These may not be highlights either but there’s few mistakes being made.
He still also adds stuff on offense, but that is more of a work in progress:
A lot of the offense will come down to making 3s. Those will be the looks that he will have to knock down. That’s at the top of the list when it comes to role players on offense. He did more of that in the Kings game making 3 triples to punish the defense:
0:45s: Rozier is running in transition and finds him on the kick after seeing DeRozan helping on the drive
2:02: It’s a Herro-Bam PNR where Bam gets the ball on the short roll. The defense collapses and he has the kick to Larsson for the wide-open 3pt. Also, check out the great lift from Larsson to get into that spot
2:11: Similar thing here. Rozier-Bam PNR with a single tag in the corner. Adebayo’s roll draws DeRozan and we again have Larsson lifting to make that pass for Rozier much easier
These are the shots that he will have to continue to make. It’s also doing those little things like lifting. It’s a very subtle thing but if he didn’t do that on time, Rozier is not making the corner pass and the defense may recover. Some of those off-ball movements can be the difference maker between the defense having a couple of feet to cover and get a hand up vs a few feet that leave them too far to contest.
I also have been a fan of his drives. If he draws the defense enough, he’s more than capable of attacking the closeout and going through contact to finish. Check out the clips at 0:00, 1:47, and 1:56.
Finally, it’s also all of the little things that he does. The passes, the cuts, and the screens. He’s been active off-ball in terms of doing something to open things up or make things a bit easier:
0:39: As Butler looks to drive, you have Larsson cutting, which opens up the kick to Highsmith for 3pt
1:00: Starts off in the opposite corner and looks to cut along the baseline to then set a screen(ish) for Highsmith
1:40: Looks to cut, sets a screen for Robinson, then continues to move and relocate. Rarely staying still
Similar to his defense, a lot of these things may be simple. They may not standout. They may not seem important but it makes things better. So far, through only three games, he has shown that he deserves to get more minutes off the bench in this kind of role.
Third Quarter Collapse vs Kings
So, the Heat early in the third had a 15-point lead. The Kings, ended up with a nine-point lead near the end.
The Kings scored 37 points on 13/15 2pt, 4/7 3pt, 3/4 ft grabbing three offensive rebounds and only turning the ball three times. The Heat scored 17 points on 5/12 2pt, 1/8 3pt, 4/4 ft grabbing only one offensive rebound and having three turnovers.
This third-quarter collapse has been the story all season long(which will be going through in a separate breakdown). But let’s look at how the Kings did it:
The first most common way for the Kings to generate points was Fox getting whatever he wanted. He finished the quarter almost outscoring the Heat himself with 16 points. But look how easy a lot of those points are. It’s in the PNR getting to his spots, getting easy drives to the rim, and also cashing in a couple of 3s because he was feeling it. But it’s the drives that hurt the most. It’s painful to watch some of those possessions and how easy they look.
Then the rest of the Kings:
It’s in Ellis in transition and getting a quick open 3pt. It’s losing back-cuts. DeRozan was cooking at times in the post. It’s the damn handoffs for Murray.
The defense was horrible and generated all kinds of looks. This wasn’t just a poor point-of-attack defense that let drives in or get cooked in isolation. It was getting cooked from all angles. On-ball, off-ball, handoffs, inside, outside, in the post, in the PNR, or transition.
On the other end, you have this:
Butler, Adebayo, and Herro combined for 12 points on 12 shots. Everyone else went for five points on eight shots. Let’s look at some of those looks:
1st clip: Butler-Bam PNP. He has the open pop but chooses to attack the closeout for a late clock floater
2nd clip: Jovic being a hub for Butler off the screen. They flow into another Butler-Bam PNR. That doesn’t really do anything and just look at that spacing! There is no space to drive and the only option is a late clock kick to Jovic 1 pass away
3rd clip: Quickly going into a Butler post up. Everyone else standing like statues with the whole defense in the paint. Somehow ends with a tough late clock Rozier stepback 3pt.
4th clip: Herro-Bam PNR. Doesn’t get much advantage there, then takes Fox off the dribble on the drive but there’s no space inside again with Butler cutting under the rim for no reason, so it’s a tough layup
6th clip: Butler-Bam PNR. He does get a drive to the rim but that is a poor finish and another tough look
I don’t know how many good looks there are in these five examples or the rest of the way.
Suns Hunting
The fourth offense for the Suns was pretty, pretty simple. Not only do they have a generational scorer that’s 7ft, but they also have plenty of options to go to. But before we get to the fourth, here’s what they did throughout the game:
It was a lot of hunting. Most of the time, it wasn’t even matchup hunting or picking on anyone in particular. The Heat simply had multiple players at all times that could be attacked, even the better defenders. What did is either give Booker, Beal, or Durant an easy shot for themselves or get wide-open looks elsewhere.
Right at the start of the video, you see O’Neale having a wide-open 3pt shot in the corner because Durant drew three players going at Herro.
How about Booker going at Duncan and it’s the same thing, with him drawing multiple bodies near the paint and it’s a kick to the corner for a Dunn 3pt.
Or feeding Booker against Rozier in the post with everyone else cramped in the opposite corner to eliminate the help? Adebayo looks to help but he’s too late and it’s a layup — on that note, that was a nice setup from the Suns.
Next, you involve both Rozier and Herro with Booker and everyone else spaced out. That again creates a wide-open 3pt for O’Neale with Rozier overhelping on the drive.
Durant especially was also taking turns on Highsmith as if he was simply one of Herro or Rozier.
This was a lot of their offense throughout the game, but they took it to a whole different level in the fourth. That was as simple as picking on one player as it can get.
The offense was three steps. It was Jones saying “Hey, who’s guarding Herro? Come here and set a screen” followed by saying “Hey, Kevin come set another screen” and ending with “Hey, Kevin go cook or make the right pass”.
It was painful to watch as a fan because there wasn’t much they could’ve done. I don’t think Herro played bad defense but even the best defenders that are taller will struggle against him.
Because if they looked to help too much or have Highsmith look to recover, you get what happened in the first clip, where they showed help and Booker gets an ope
Or at the 0:44s mark, you don’t send early help and Durant’s shot looks like this:
I mean, what are you meant to do here? Herro can barely foul him, let alone contest his shot.
They did have some success at times at getting a worse look. At the 0:53s mark, Durant had Herro switched already on an island. Highsmith goes to aggressively double to get the ball out of his hands. Adebayo rotates over to Booker to defend his drive. Herro helps perfectly to switch and cut off the drive. But in a split second, Highsmith loses Durant and he still gets an open look. It’s not the best look but that’s as tough of a look they can force.
The last clip is just… erm, yeah. I don’t want to talk about it
Weekly Ramble
So, it’s been a bit of a rough week being a Heat fan and I don’t know how positive I can be going forward. They have way too many issues and it cost them almost every single game.
Right now, they are 15th in net rating(-1.5), 18th on offense(113.3) and 17th on defense(114.7). I have strong concerns on both ends of the floor.
And I’m feeling more uneasy that I do have concerns about the defense. That has never been an issue to this extent. They have always somehow, magically or by whatever sicko Spoelstra cooks up in the lab, ended up being good.
On the bright side, they are ahead of what they were last year! Through seven games in 2023, they were 23rd in net rating with -5.8. They were also 17th on defense. And the only team that was worse offensively was the “injury report” Memphis Grizzlies, and Portland Trail Blazers.
But right now, that’s the only thing bright because the solutions to this team are disappearing to me with more games. Yes, we are still only seven games in and you shouldn’t make sweeping declarations but THIS ISN’T JUST SEVEN GAMES.
These issues were here two years ago with a different team. These issues were here again with another different team before the Rozier trade. These issues were there again with a different team after the Rozier trade. And those same issues are here again.
We know those issues are and it’s been two full seasons of them looking to fix it. There is no fix on this team. Yes, this is all doom and gloom in early November, but that’s only because they haven’t been a good team that has any kind of margin of error in two seasons.
These two games kind of had me worried even more because a lot of my previous issues had to do with Butler not being involved. He has been involved a lot more. He has boosted his touches so much that he’s second on the team now and first in front-court touches. And it doesn’t matter. They have a 111 offensive rating.
It’s not only the team but Butler hasn’t looked good at all with more on-ball reps. He has struggled to get to the rim and instead relies a lot more on his jumper, floater, and shots around the paint.
There’s this whole thing with Adebayo’s offense. Rozier is struggling. That should 100% get better with reasonable expectations. They are not that bad, but that raises the floor by how much? We’ve seen what they were doing last year with much, much better shooting and they were still bad.
And now, they have another tough stretch with the Nuggets and Wolves. That isn’t going to be pretty either.
At this moment, this team has a lot to prove for me to actually think they are even a good team at this point.
The Heatle Things
To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stat, lineups, plays, actions, or anything that I found interesting or fun.
The trend of protecting the ball continues! They have had four straight games in the 70th percentile or better in TOV%
They are 24th in eFG% but somehow are sixth in 3pt%. That has to do a lot with them being 30th in 2pt%
After starting the season well with the right shot profile, they have gone back to the same old habits — 24% frequency within 4ft, 30% within 4-14ft, 4% within 14-3pt, 14% from corners, and 28% from above the break
Herro is shooting 50% on 5.4 catch-and-shoot 3s! He’s also shooting 39% on 3.3 pull-up 3s! He’s having one hell of a season shooting the ball. A lot of that is him being a deadly transition scorer where he is 12/24 on shots from 22-15 on the clock. He’s also scoring 1.44 points per possession in transition