The Culture Report: Mud Game in Minnesota, Herro's Week But Should They Sell High?
Defense vs Nuggets, mud game in Minnesota, Herro's week & should they sell high on him
Welcome to The Culture Report! A weekly report going through the thoughts, discussion, and analysis of the Miami Heat. This is the place for you to get up to speed with everything that’s important, interesting, or simply fun — whether that’s news, specific games, box-scores, actions, plays, signings, trades, trends, financials, schemes + everything else you can think off — and digging deeper into the how’s and why’s through film breakdowns, stats, and analysis.
Games of the week:
122-135 LOSS vs Denver Nuggets
95-94 WIN vs Minnesota Timberwolves
121-123 LOSS vs Detroit Pistons
Key stats:
ORTG: 111.6(119.6, 97.9, 116.3)
DRTG: 116.2(133.7, 97.9, 116.2)
eFG%: 56.3 vs 57.9
TOV%: 16.2 vs 18.5
ORB%: 24.0 vs 29.4
FTr: 13.4 vs 20.1
What’s Been Heating Up
To bring you up to speed with everything, we’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the games and a bunch of film and Xs & Os from the week, whether it’s here or some additional pieces at All U Can Heat. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.
How the Nuggets got what they wanted
A game in the mud in Minnesota
Herro’s perfect week
Game Thoughts
I wasn’t expecting a win in Denver but somehow this was much closer than I would’ve thought. It was definitely much closer given that they were without Jimmy Butler for all but six minutes.
The Heat never led at any point. They were also down at least double digits for most of the game. They were down by 26 points early in the third! But they were still that annoying team that didn’t stop being annoying.
A lot of it came down to their 3-point shooting and transition(it certainly wasn’t the defense but more on that shortly). The Heat shot 20/43(46%) from 3pt and 26/51(51%) from 2pt. That was the number one reason why they were in this game. Shooting 46% with a 45% 3pt rate will keep you in games. That was boosted by 26 fastbreak points and 29 points off turnovers. This was one of those days offensively.
You had Tyler Herro with 24 points and 11 assists on 6/11 2pt, and 4/10 3pt. Duncan Robinson gave you 20 points with 6/10 3pt.
But this wasn’t their night defensively. Having a 133.7 defensive rating won’t do you any good, even if your offense was good, because unless it’s better than that, you will still lose. They just had no answers for anything.
The Wolves game was the most frustrating game to watch this season. It was the most game in the mud as you can get. 43 combined turnovers! 24/75 combined from 3pt. Sloppy basketball. Careless turnovers from both teams that weren’t even forced. Many of the turnovers were bad reads. No 3-point shooting at all. All things that Spoelstra loves.
I don’t know how the Heat managed to steal this game on the road. A big boost was having 26-4 fastbreak points. 27% of their points came as fastbreaks. In a game where both teams struggle with keeping possessions and scoring, fastbreaks decided this game. The Heat went 9/12 compared to 2/8 from the Wolves.
The biggest reason for the remaining offense was Herro again scoring 26 points on 5/7 2pt, 4/8 3pt, and 4/5 ft. He did only have 3 assists and 8 turnovers, which led both teams. But he was also the only player on the Heat that had more than 16 points.
On the other end, it did help that the Wolves also couldn’t buy a bucket. It did help that Anthony Edwards was also the only player on the Wolves that had more than 17 points. It helped he had 22 points on 24 shots, with 14 of them being 3s, and added a team-high 6 turnovers. Julius Randle contributed 17 points on 16 shots with 4 turnovers.
Their 3pt reliance where they had a 51% 3pt rate also contributed to them having only 13 free throws to Heat’s 22.
And when it’s a clutch game, everything is on the table. The Heat executed better on both ends and Spoelstra drew up a perfect play to get the bucket to put them up. That was a beautiful out of time out play to get Jovic the and one at the rim.
There are no words to describe the ending to this game. Scrap what I said few paragraphs back with the Wolves game being the most frustrating game to watch because the ending to this game was worse. It was just the ending but with how they ended up losing just beats it.
First of all, they shouldn’t have been in this position to begin with. They were down double digits in the first quarter alone! They were down almost 20 points in the second before crawling back. They never led in the third and again were losing by 10 multiple times in the fourth!
A bunch of it came down to giving up 16 second-chance points and 20 fast breaks. They damn shot 19/24 at the rim! They didn’t even have a great 3-point shooting night and still put up 123 points.
The one reason the Heat were able to even be in the game late was the Pistons were Pistons. This happened the first time they met when the Heat were doing their usual things that cost them games but the Pistons were doing the same thing but worse. The Pistons again were just asking the Heat to beat them and this time they(Herro) capitalized until the end.
That was the story of the night. Herro with 40 points on 27 shots with 10 triples. Thank god for that because outside of that, there was Rozier with 7 points on 14 shots and Duncan with 14 points on 16 shots.
Before the third quarter, they had a 113.9 offensive rating and a 125.4 defensive rating! They were bad for most of the game. Herro before the fourth had a respectable 20 points on 14 shots with 5 assists. And that’s with the team shooting 11/27 from 3pt. They shouldn’t be in a position where they need “checks notes” 16 points from Herro to bring them back.
And the way the game ended with blowing a timeout play that gave the Pistons a lob and calling a timeout that you didn’t have to lose on a technical free throw, was just a dagger in the heart. To have that happen after everything you did to crawl back was the most annoying part.
How the Nuggets got what they wanted
The Nuggets basically got whatever they wanted. They had a 133.7 offensive rating, which was in the 95th percentile, and they also had a 73.8% eFG, which was in the 100th percentile. The Heat were lucky they turned the ball over slightly with 17.8% TOV and didn’t rebound their misses at all with 19.4% ORB.
When it comes to their shot-making, that was on point. This was their shot chart:
29/38 in the paint. That’s inexcusable. They got everything inside and still also got cooked from 3pt.
One of their biggest ways was in transition. This has been a recurring issue and it hurts them a lot.
It’s a whole bunch of simple things. It’s not getting back on defense. It’s not matching up. It’s not offering any kind of resistance. At times, it feels like a layup. In those first two clips, neither Herro nor Jovic offered much at the rim. Christian Braun had a couple of solid drives. The rim protection at the rim in transition just isn’t there at all, even when the defender was there.
The next way they got cooked isn’t their issue. It’s more that Nikola Jokic isn’t a human kind of issue. At times, it’s also smart basketball from the Nuggets.
In the first clip, the Nuggets push the pace with Jokic setting a backscreen on Butler. That forces a switch because Adebayo can’t give up that back cut. What comes next is a layup over Butler that couldn’t do anything about it.
In the second clip, it’s against Adebayo. He looks to front him after he gave the ball up initially, but because there was no one on the backline to cover for him, it’s another wide-open shot.
Even when they went zone, all Jokic did was cut inside and he attacked the rim with no resistance(even though bodies were inside).
And the last clip, how is anyone meant to stop a giant attacking off-ball? Adebayo isn’t some weak player but that is way too much for anyone in the league.
Their 3pt defense was also quite bad and it goes beyond simple shooting variance. Some were wide-open looks and poor defense.
Some of the looks like the first clip is what can the defender do? Michael Porter Jr simply rises up over Rozier and it’s an open shot for him. There’s no contest there with that size difference.
When it comes to more poor defense, it’s possessions like in the second clip. Braun sets a screen on Rozier. He trails as Murray looks to have a wide open lane to the rim. That forces Jovic to help out from the far corner. Jokic makes the skip pass automatically. Whatever Jovic decided to do, Jokic was 100% already going to exploit whatever decision. This starts with better screen navigation or switching those screens.
Better screen navigation and hustling back would’ve taken some of those 3s off the table. Take a look at the 0:40 mark where Pelle Larsson is trailing Russell Westbrook, which forces Haywood Highsmith to help(though that may not have been needed to that extent) and it’s a kick to Murray.
On a few possessions, it comes from a shooter being 1 pass away and when the ball handler draws the defense on the drive, it’s a simple kick. A lot of their issues that resulted in open 3s came from the point-of-attack defense very early on.
Finally, we have the rim attempts that also cooked them a lot. This goes back to their point-of-attack defense and little resistance at the rim. Too many times, a ball handler either turned the corner easily or went through the defender as if I was personally guarding them.
And because this is also the Nuggets, their cutting and constant movement made the Heat’s off-ball defense pay. At the 0:53s mark, Jovic is losing his man on the back cut. It happens again in the following clip. The Heat’s awareness and being switched on gave up too many shots at the rim.
A game in the mud in Minnesota
The Wolves ended up having a 97.9 offensive rating and a 19.8% TOV. This wasn’t merely bad play from them. This also wasn’t just missing open looks or making unforced errors. The Heat’s defense did step up and it experimented with different schemes.
Forcing 22 turnovers was key number one and they did so by being constantly active everywhere, whether it was with their timely doubles, playing the passing lanes, rotating early to be in position, or being aggressive. They had 30 deflections! Highsmith had nine!
In the first clip, you see Highsmith hustling his ass going over two screens to recover on the Edwards drive and stripping him clean.
In the third clip, watch the energy from Larsson causing havoc that forces Reid to lose his handle. In the fourth clip, you have Larsson playing good defense on the drive shadowing him as Donte looked to attack and then having Jovic help from the strong corner perfectly to swallow that drive and force the turnover.
This whole thing was a case of everyone being hungry, active, hustling, and looking to be disruptive in any way possible.
They also sprinkled in a whole bunch of zone:
Per Couper Moorhead, the Wolves scored 0.87 points per possession against the Heat’s zone, which they used 40 times. The Heat used ZONE in a professional league for 40 possessions and a professional basketball team couldn’t beat it.
It killed a lot of time off the clock. It involved a full-court press. Everyone again was active and on a string. This game felt a lot more like the Heat defense we’ve been watching over the last few years.
Just watch some of those possessions where everyone moves in sync. Everyone was doing their job and then you combine that with how active they were with deflections and now it’s chaos in the mud.
Kind of ironic for the game to be in the mud, all slowed but it’s also the Heat causing havoc and chaos with activity.
Finally, it was also a whole bunch of individual players playing better and more engaged:
So many good possessions that didn’t end up giving up an advantage. Players weren’t getting beat as easily. The rotations were on point. There were some smart peel switches that helped on drives. Good individual point-of-attack defense.
The defense was clicking. The Wolves didn’t play badly for no reason.
Herro’s Week
This has been a wild week for Herro:
24pts on 6/11 2pt, 4/10 3pt, 7 rebounds & 11 assists vs Denver
26pts on 5/7 2pt, 4/8 3pt, 4/5 ft & 3 assists vs Wolves
40(!)pts on 4/10 2pt, 10/17 3pt, 2/2 ft, 8 assists & 4 steals vs Pistons
He was also a big reason why the Heat were either in a position to win or won period. The biggest thing that stood out was him doing this in the second half:
19.3 points in 20.2 minutes shooting 59% from the field and 57% from 3pt. In the fourth, he also scored 32 points on 10/17 shooting, including 9/13 from 3pt. The shot-making late in the games has been key and needed.
With no Jimmy Butler and honestly, anyone else that has been able to make shots, Herro has done what’s been necessary and he deserves all of the credit for his shot-making.
Against the Nuggets, he posted a near triple-double and a highly efficient night. A perfect balance with scoring inside and outside the arc, whilst balancing that with some of the passing:
He starts off with an attack vs Braun gets to the paint with the defense all inside and finds Jovic cutting. Next, it’s a double PNR with the Nuggets icing the pick forcing him to go baseline, he attacks and goes for the floater. He continues to make another solid read off yet another drive after the Nuggets ice the pick, where he gets inside the paint, draws the defense, and kicks it to Larsson.
That’s where he was doing his damage early in the game with his drives and decision-making. At the 0:28 mark, another perfect decision when attacking and seeing Jokic help, so it’s a lob to Adebayo.
The one thing that stands out in almost all of those plays is him making the right decision and reading almost all the time. Whether that is attacking the rim, making a pass, going for a pull-up, or simply moving the ball.
The decision-making was on point. He felt in control.
Take the clip at the 1:29 mark where it’s a double PNR. He looks to attack when the Nuggets ice again. He snakes around the paint and finds Adebayo for the open 3pt.
Against the Wolves, it was a bit of a worse game, especially with the turnovers, but he was still a huge part of the fourth quarter:
And then to top it all off, he had the game against the Pistons. Until around the fourth, this looked to be like another usual Herro game from this season.
The biggest thing was the 3pt shooting where he made 10 triples!
1st: A spot up off a Duncan-Herro-Bam Spain PNR. Duncan was able to beat the closeout, draw the defense, and finds Herro on the pop
2nd: Herro-Bam handoff. The defense over plays him, so he smartly goes the other way for the open pull up
3rd: Transition
4th: A spot up off a Jaquez Jr post up that draws defense 1 pass away
5th: A Jaquez-Herro-Bam PNR action that again gets him a pop 3pt
6th: Transition pull up
7th: Spot up in the corner after relocating
8th: Double PNR and hitting a nasty stepback vs Cunningham
9th: Quick PNR where he rejects it for the pull-up
10th: In transition
But he had a great game beyond the 3s too, particularly with his decision-making again:
It’s a whole bunch of things that he’s been doing great all week long. It’s making simple reads to cutters in the PNR. It’s attacking well in PNR when the defense ices.
At the 0:20 mark, he perfectly ran that PNR to get Duncan an open 3pt. It’s a double PNR, with him attacking baseline where he sees the defense everywhere but manages to keep his dribble alive. He goes around the whole paint(hello, Steve Nash) and finds Duncan on the kick.
All throughout the game, he has been able to make those kicks, dragging the defense out, keeping the dribble, and making the right read. Outside of the 3-point shooting, the passing stood out a lot.
So, what a week Tyler Herro had.
Herro’s Career Year & A Tweet That Came With It
It’s fitting that after the week that Herro just had that I also went through all of his scoring and how exactly he’s had a career year.
You can check out the full breakdown here:
To summarise, it’s a whole bunch of elite, elite shot-making, particularly from 3pt that translated to absurd numbers on spot-ups and in transition. It’s getting better on off the dribble 3pt. And tying all of that together is refining the shot diet to be more analytically friendly.
But I wanted to touch on this tweet:
Related to that, there was also a podcast from 5 Reasons Sports that talked about this “Why can’t the Miami Heat capitalise on Tyler Herro’s play”.
That caused some takes to fly on Twitter… and I agree with HP. This is the time to sell high on Herro and I know this may look wild considering the start to the season that he’s had.
The instant counter to that has been who are you getting that’s better than Herro now that will make the team better?
But the instant counter to that is who’s saying that the move is to be better? Selling on Herro would also mean you’re selling on the entire build. In that scenario, you also don’t sell high on him first. It’s pushing the first domino by accepting you need to move on from Butler. It’s only then that you consider moving on from Herro too.
Now, the question will be “Okay why are we selling on a 24-year-old that has had this kind of season if we’re looking to rebuild?”
And to answer that question, everything depends on what you see his potential as. If you believe this is a leap to being a player you can build around, it’s a damn stupid question to consider trading such a player. But if you don’t believe in a high ceiling or that this start shows anything of the sort, then that’s when it starts to make sense for me.
I’m in the latter group. Yes, he has been a lot better this year. He has also been highly efficient, which has been one of the main criticisms of his game, but it was also not the criticism of his game that stopped him from taking a potential leap.
That criticism, which isn’t just a Herro thing, is that if the team wants a lead guard that’s the primary ball handler, and shot creator who leads the team in usage and touches and also creates shots for others, that player must be able to pressure the rim. They must be able to consistently beat defenders of the dribble, force the defense to do something, and then make them pay. That leap hasn’t happened.
This is the same conversation around Herro that I’ve had over the last three seasons and these improvements certainly help but it doesn’t change anything drastically. It doesn’t suddenly mean that he now can be a team-leading guard in usage and touches. These improvements will result in great floor raising, though. That’s where we get to the idea of selling.
Imagine a perfect scenario where you get a haul for Butler, such as a bunch of picks and someone like Jonathan Kuminga. Another perfect scenario where you somehow force accept a trade that gets you a first for Rozier. Let’s go further, you’re selling everywhere else where you manage to get some expiring contracts for Robinson.
In this perfect world, you’re ending up with Herro, Adebayo, Jaquez Jr, Ware, Kuminga, Larsson, Jovic, and some potential vets on expiring deals and recoup 3 first-round picks.
This is a play-in team, with still limited assets to continue to improve on. There is no one on this team that has the ceiling to be a top 10, 15, or even really 20 player offensively, that can be the number one or a number two option. But then you also still don’t have the amount of picks or other young talent to get a top 15 player that you’d need. Their current pick situation is also a mess that owes the Thunder and the Hornets one.
So, the Heat are likely going to be stuck in mediocrity again. Also, Adebayo isn’t some young player waiting to hit his prime in a few years. He’s going to be 28 at the end of this year. This means that if they do blow up, they’d be entering that era with Adebayo also entering his 30s.
Throughout the Butler era, almost every fan has been talking about assets and always being in rumors and talks for players but never being able to capitalize on it because of the lack of assets.
And as much as they missed their chance on selling high on Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, or Derrick Jones Jr, that wasn’t giving you a good return. The way to do so is to sell on actual talent.
At this point, I also wouldn’t consider trading Herro for role players like I would’ve suggested last year. I’d be more selective for the right package. But if there’s any team that would offer something similar to whatever Dejounte Murray got either from the Hawks or the Pelicans, you do it.
That may sting in the short term selling on a 24-year-old that has looked great but in the long term that does make more sense to me. Otherwise, you’re stuck in mediocrity and you also have to pay Herro again, which adds to the first point. He and everyone else can very well continue to improve and they’ll reach a good team but not great to do anything.
The only obstacle with this route is what kind of package is out there for him and that’s the tricky bit.
Weekly Ramble
Another disappointing week, dropping two more games. They are now 4-6 and are ninth in the East. They are still 17th in net rating with -2.4. They are also still without Butler.
And “I” still don’t know how to feel. They’re not going to be a bad team where you can say with certainty that they’re going to lose. They can be good enough to be in any of the games, make potential comebacks, or even blow certain teams out. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the games will end up being in the clutch again.
Since the Nuggets game where Butler only played around 7 minutes, the Heat with Herro on are -3.0 net with a 116.7 offense in 116 minutes. But add Adebayo to the mix, they are no +6.0 with a 117.7 offense in 97 minutes.
They are -12.3 net with an 89.2 offense in 33 minutes without Herro and -29.0 with a 117.5 offense without Adebayo in 29 minutes. Either awful offense without Herro or a historic-level bad defense without Adebayo.
I don’t want to be saying this 10 games into the season, but the more I think about it, the more convinced I get that they should punt this season. It’s not something that the Heat have done in any of the seasons. This would be the first that they tried something like this.
But the idea of exploring a trade for Butler makes a lot of sense when there are so many signs that they’re not a good team. Yes, it is just 10 games but the holes and weaknesses are glaring that I don’t know if there even is a reasonable solution on this team. Even if we see a more locked-in Butler, that doesn’t start to fix any of the 10 other issues that they have.
As mentioned last week in the ramble, they have a lot to prove that they are a good team but right now they’re showing they’re not great, they’re not bad, and it could be better. But how much better? Is better just be at least around .500? Is it being more competitive against better teams? That sounds lovely but if that’s the bar then what are we doing?
It would feel very, very weird to make that decision to punt on the season, but I do think it’s better to make that decision a year too soon than a year too late.
In other news, Herro is still balling, so that’s great. But then what is the next bright spot? Adebayo’s offense is still struggling. Rozier’s fit and vibe offensively feel worse each game. They still haven’t decided on what the starting lineup should be or any of the rotation.
It is said to make decisions after 20 games. That’s 10 games later. Can I convince myself that in 10 games, any of the issues can at least be somewhat addressed? I honestly don’t think so. Yes, you want to have more data and more of a sample to make decisions on, but it’s very possible that it’s going to show you the same thing over and over again.
They have a mixed schedule upcoming in these 10 games: Pacers twice, 76ers, Mavericks, Bucks, Hornets, Raptors twice, Celtics, and Lakers. This can easily be 3-7 stretch.
They are going to get Butler back soon I hope but that also raises questions again. This team is a roller-coaster every time I look to write these rambles and I’m tired.
The Heatle Things
To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stat, lineups, plays, actions, or anything that I found interesting or fun.
Each year of wanting to go faster, the Heat rank 21st in offensive pace with 15.12. That’s slower than last year at 15.08. This is the second slowest season in the Butler era
They are 5th in 3pt%. Yay!
They are also 30th in 2pt%. Oh!
They are still 25th in ORB%. Something has been going wrong with their rebounding
Duncan needs to bounce back. He’s shooting 39.7% from inside the arc. Down from 57.9% last year and 59.0% for his career. His finishing has dropped significantly
They are the best transition team in the league. Probably a lot of that is Herro himself. The only issue is they are 28th in frequency