The Culture Report: Taking Out Lillard, Countering Mavericks & Some Thoughts on Butler + Rozier

Welcome to The Culture Report! A Weekly report rounding up everything that you need to know about the Miami Heat to get up to speed on what’s been going on. This will be through “What’s Been Heating Up” where we go through all of the games and main takeaways. There will be additional breakdowns and pieces either on Simply Ballin or AUCH that dives in deeper into other topics and questions compiled here with additional thoughts. Following that is a Weekly Ramble to share any unscripted, unplanned thoughts, before going into The Heatle Things where it’s everything in between + compiling any other best Heat work from other creators.

After what was a long, long hiatus, the Heat finally played some basketball! And we came out with a pretty good win against the Mavericks(even though they were without Doncic), only to then lose to a Giannis-less Bucks, and sneak in a win against the Hornets that was way too close.

Basically, it was business as usual after the five-day break. It was once again, a roller-coaster of emotions when watching those games. It was thrilling to watch them make comebacks, force overtime on game-saving out of time-out plays, and even look to be in the game after crawling back from a 20+ digit deficit. Equally as thrilling, it was blowing leads, only for them to save the day right at the end.

What’s Been Heating Up

We’re starting off the report by going through thoughts from the games, a bunch of film and Xs & Os, and any newsworthy topics that arise during the week. This will include going through an individual’s performance, key reasons why they won/lost, and a handful of little takeaways. If you missed a game or if you want to dive into some of the main takeaways, this is for you.

Games of the week

• 128-118 OT WIN Vs Dallas Mavericks, 24/11/24

• 103-106 LOSS Vs Milwaukee Bucks, 26/11/24

• 98-94 WIN Vs Charlotte Hornets, 27/11/24

Breakdowns of the week:

• How the Mavericks Took Away the Rim & How the Heat Countered

• How Lillard cooked & how Spoelstra adjusted

Key stats:

• ORTG: 111.8(110.9, 118.4, 106.5)

• DRTG: 109.3 (108.3, 120.5, 100.0)

• eFG%: 52.2% vs 50.7%

• TOV%: 13.5% vs 13.7%

• ORB%: 27.9% vs 29.5%

• FTr: 22.7 vs 13.4

Player stats:

123-118 OT WIN Vs Dallas Mavericks Thoughts

5 days off and coming out with a clutch win in overtime. This was a close game for all 53 minutes. Nine lead changes and 11 tie games, but it was the Heat that executed well down the stretch that got them the win.

Both teams struggled to score efficiently, the Heat finished with a 49.5% eFG and 51.7% TS and the Mavericks had a 46.7% eFG and 50.9% TS. This was one of those games that was on who could protect the ball more, who could get more second-chance points, who could get to the line, and who could execute well in a handful of possessions.

That’s what it came down to the games being close or not. The Heat managed to win the possession battle in the first half. They had a 5.9% TOV compared to the Mavericks’ 19.2%. Their ORB% was 33.3% vs. 26.9%. And their FT rate was 0.404 vs 0.178. That’s how you win when you can’t finish at the rim or make shots. But that’s also what the Mavericks did in the second half. They had a 6.0% TOV vs 12.0%, 32.3% ORB vs 21.7%, and 0.340 vs 0.043 FTr. The script completely flipped.

What the Heat had was Butler going off for 33 points on 11/17 shots and 11/16 FTA with six assists — 19 of them being in the second half and OT. Best player on the court did best player on the court things.

Outside of that, the Heat didn’t have much offensive help from the other top players. Herro went for 18 points on 7/15 2pt, 1/10 3pt and 1/2 ft. He could not buy a 3-point shot. Adebayo had a similar poor performance with 19 points on 5/14 2pt and 3/6 3pt. Missed bunnies and looks at the rim, but made up for it with a few triples, including in the clutch.

Their offensive contribution came from both Burks and Larsson, combining for 29 points on 6/7 2pt and 5/10 3pt. Both gave them key minutes on both ends of the floor.

We also got to give credit to Erik Spoelstra for once again delivering a great set to force overtime:

Overtime was no contest, really. A lot of that had to do with the Mavericks settling on shots. That’s what it felt like at times in the clutch for them. This wasn’t a great defensive performance from the Heat and the Mavericks did shoot themselves in the foot on so many occasions by settling or having some questionable shot selection.

103-106 LOSS Vs Milwaukee Bucks Thoughts

Man, this was a roller-coaster. I had a weird feeling about this game in the first 30 seconds of the game. I see that they’re without Giannis Antetokounmpo and that Lillard made his first 3pt. I knew this was going to be a close game then if the Bucks were short handed. I also knew that despite Lillard shooting 20% on over 7 3s in his last six games, that he was going to cook.

That’s exactly what happened in the first half. The Bucks scored 65 points, shooting 11/21 2pt, and 13/21 3pt, with Lillard making six of them. They had a 141.3 ORTG in the first half with 73.5%. Lillard was cooking everyone in so many ways. They had a few drives in transition. There was also plenty of tough shot-making that was sometimes BS with the clock running down and it was BS.

That all changed in the second half. That was one of the best defensive stretches I’ve seen from the Heat. The next 24 minutes were HELL for Lillard and everyone else. Nothing was easy. They were swarming. They were flying everywhere. They doubled Lillard every time and forced the ball out of his hands. The mismatch-hunting offense was negated. The Bucks had a 97.6 ORTG in the second half with 50.9% TS.

They did basically everything right defensively in the second half to crawl back from 22 down. The issue is finding yourself down 22 from which you need to crawl back.

Offensively, that was just as big of an issue, especially in the first half. They were once again saved sort of by the free throws. They had a 108.5 DRTG with a 48.5% eFG but 57.8% TS. They weren’t able to get anything easy. They also weren’t able to generate any 3s — they took NINE in 24 minutes. That was another reason they found themselves in the hole, to begin with.

In the second half, they were able to generate more 3s, but they were more off the dribble. It still wasn’t a great offense but in those circumstances, they just got their shots to fall down and that’s how they were able to get their offense going.

It was another clutch game and it went down to the same setup as the Mavericks game. The Bucks executed well to take away the initial option but the Heat were still able to get a clean look from Herro, but, sadly, it didn’t go in.

98-94 WIN Vs Charlotte Hornets Thoughts

Okay. This was way too close. This shouldn’t have been this close. It shouldn’t have come to needing to be saved in such a way. After looking at some of the stats, it is both amazing that the Heat won or that the Hornets were in the game.

The Hornets attempted 18 more true shooting attempts. They had a 33.9% ORB compared to the Heat’s 30.8%. They had a 13.8% TOV compared to the Heat’s 23.9%.

On the other hand, the Heat shot 53% from 2pt compared to 32%. They also shot 38% from 3pt compared to 33%. They had a 55% eFG compared to 46%, and 59% TS compared to 46%. On that note, the Hornets didn’t get to the line at all(only 8 attempts and two were technical).

It mind-boggles me that this was a game. This was also very uncharacteristic game from the Heat offensively, especially when it comes to the turnovers. They had a 27.7% TOV in the second half, which contributed a lot to the game being up for grabs.

But they were still able to generate some point earlier in the game. It was first Robinson doing his thing off handoffs. He finished the game with 22 points with 6/9 from 3pt. They were spamming it and there was nothing that the Hornets could’ve done.

Herro had a rough shooting night from deep, but he made up for it inside the arc. He shot 7/10 from 2pt and 4/12 from 3pt. He was able to get plenty of the drives to the rim. This was one of his best games when it came to that. And of course, he did save the whole team from a lot of slanders with his go-ahead 3pt and a steal to extend the lead.

This was also a game where we didn’t see much of Butler — only 6 points on 2 shots. It was one of those games where he was playing but he wasn’t playing.

Adebayo also had a quiet night when it comes to his scoring. He finished with 8 points on 8 shots but he was getting everyone else opened with his screens. He had a near triple-double with 10 rebounds and 10 assists, including 8 screen assists. He was responsible for a lot of those handoffs.

In the end, this shouldn’t have been a game against this Hornets team, but a win is a win. When it comes to the standings, that’s all that matters.

Butler breakdown vs Mavericks

So, Jimmy Butler wastes no time getting back into it. He had five days off and he came out doing what was necessary. He was aggressive. He was engaged. He looked to score. He looked to facilitate. This is more of the Butler that this team needs consistently because the results are so much better.

Everything is so much better when he plays with that level of intensity and looks to do anything with intent.

He had 33 points on 11/17 shooting(no 3s attempted) and got to the line for 16 attempts:

He got his points in the usual way, by attacking relentlessly and also grifting fouls(I have to admit, some of them were funny).

Starting off his attack is going into a handoff with Haywood to pick on Irving on the switch(remember where Gafford is sitting, that will be important in the following breakdown) and easily turn the corner on him. After that, it’s three straight foul trips.

A lot of the scoring came down to tough, hustling in the paint and getting putbacks.

But it was also his playmaking that was a factor in this game:

It’s all those deep drives that collapse the defense that opens up everything else. Even with his off-ball play and his cuts, he was able to draw the defense.

Those kicks either led to an open 3pt or it at least kept the possession going by collapsing the defense and putting them in rotation. That is always the most effective when it’s Butler doing the damage because he can draw the defense either on the drive or in the post that forces the defense to come.

How the Mavericks Took Away the Rim & How the Heat Countered

This wasn’t a game filled with great offense from either of the teams. But when it comes to why the Heat struggled offensively, a lot had to do with the fact that they couldn’t finish at the rim.

The Mavericks had a great defensive scheme to make everything difficult for the Heat. Their 1v1 defense was stellar. They weren’t allowing themselves to get beat. They had help come in early. Lively and Gafford did their job as rim protectors when they were involved in actions or helping off any off-ball player by roaming around.

That was a big reason why the Heat shot 46% at the rim.

But to close out the game, the Heat made and executed counters to get them those easier looks at the rim or exploit that overhelping defense.

Here’s the full breakdown that you can check out here to see how the Mavericks made the rim a tough place to go and how the Heat countered to make it easier.

Lillard Cooking & How Spo Adjusted

The start of the game was something else for both Lillard and the Bucks. He came in firing away and did NOT stop in the first half. Without Antetokounmpo, the offense flowed through Lillard basically every single time and they got great results. Lillard was comfortable getting his to start the game. When the Heat adjusted slightly, that meant Lillard was cooking by picking apart the defense with his passing.

Then half time came. Then Spoelstra had time to adjust. Then it ignited something in the team. Because once they came out of the break, that entire offense went poof. It disappeared.

The intensity was through the roof. All of the miscommunication went away. The lazy rotations and the lazy closeouts all went away. What did show up was pressing, doubling, and blitzing Lillard every single time. That forced the ball out of his hands. All of the mismatch-hunting offense wasn’t as effective, as each possession took longer and longer to get something going and in the end, they ran out of time offensively.

Here’s the full breakdown of how Lillard cooked in the first place and the adjustments made:

Things that Caught My Eye

Some quick tidbits from each game, little breakdowns + more individual Xs & Os

• Pelle Larsson is beginning to have more of these games that impact the game by doing all of the little things. This is a second-round pick that played the fourth-most minutes last game and was closing in overtime.

This is what I love about his game. It’s that feel to make the simple reads, even if it’s just a cut. He had two of those baseline cuts where the defense was ball-watching. He knocked down a 3pt. He had a couple of drives and even one dump-off pass to Adebayo. And my favorite was cut when spacing to force help that opened up a shot. PERFECTION.

• Burks continues to surprise and impress me. He played 30 minutes against the Mavericks — fifth most on the team. AND he played the entire fourth where he led the team with nine points!

• I like these elbow hub actions for Adebayo

• I also liked Adebayo going 3/6 from 3pt and absolutely no hesitation on the shot. He even made a clutch 3pt and that says something. He was willing to let it fly with the game on the line. That kind of shot is different and he made it too

• To start the game, the first four possessions all involved Robinson! — A Duncan-Bam PNR for a pull-up, a Duncan-Bam handoff for a skip to Haywood for 3pt, a Duncan double PNR for a drive, and a Duncan drive out of BLOB

• BEST PLAY OF THE SEASON

  A Kevin Love full-court outlet to Butler off a free throw MAKE! The whole play took 1 second off the clock!

• The Heat had 29.9 and 25.0 free throw rate in the last two games

• To start the Hornets game, the Heat again starts with getting Robinson going. The first four possessions all ended with him taking a shot

What’s Been Going on With Adebayo?

During the weekend, I went digging deep into everything that’s been going on with Adebayo. He’s had the worst offensive start in his career and it goes beyond just a typical shooting slump, which has also played a huge part.

To start the deep dive, I first thought it would be important to have a long discussion about his game and how we got here with Adebayo in the first place:

After the lengthy discussion, I went through all of the basketball that has happened in this season. I brokedown his usage, his role, how he’s been used at different points, how he gets his offense, and used that to answer why he’s been struggling:

Weekly Ramble

Here is a weekly ramble where it’s me simply ranting about the Heat. No plan. No script. No thoughts in structure. There’s not much analysis or breakdown here. It’s me giving my thoughts and opinions on the state of the team and where I’m at with them. Plus some additional thoughts I may have that could be interesting or anything newsworthy to add.

The Heat are a mid-team and they continue to show us who they are. Last week, one of the things that I mentioned was how it was all going to look like with Butler and Rozier coming back and that wasn’t great.

Starting with Rozier, the more games they play, the less good I feel about him playing any kind of significant minutes on this team. Luckily, he wasn’t brought in as a starter. If there is one thing that should at least continue for the entire season is playing him off the bench. That’s as good of a solution as you could get right now. On that note, he’s also been trending down with his minutes played — he averaged 33.1 MPG in his first 10 games, and 24.0 in his last four. That’s also better.

In those four games, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and ONE assist. He recorded more than one assist in just one game. The team is also -9.1 net in 96 minutes with a 102.6 ORTG(but they are shooting 29.4% from 3pt).

I don’t really know what he adds to this team. It’s inconsistent shooting. A whole bunch of dribbling that goes nowhere. I’ve joked that the most useless action you can is a Rozier-X PNR. 90% of the time, it does end up doing nothing, and if the defense switches, turn that up to 99%. Then you get even more dribbles.

Even with the bench lineups that do, in theory, need a ball handler capable of running things and having some kind of shot creation, the decision-making from him has been lackluster and the inconsistent shooting doesn’t help at all. That’s also not mentioning the other end at all.

Moving on to Butler, he did have that 33 point performance, as you’ve seen in the breakdown above. He also added 23 points with 11/13 ft against the Bucks. Without mentioning the 6 points on 2 shots against the Hornets, there is still something about his game that doesn’t scream yay or something to be happy about.

Against the Mavericks, he 100% looked more engaged and was more aggressive, but at the same time, it doesn’t hit in the same way as it has done before. Not every 30-point performance is the same. That showed up a lot more against the Bucks where they were only able to generate 9 3s in the first half because no one was forcing the defense to do anything. A lot of that came because Butler had trouble creating separation or beating anyone fully off the dribble to require extra help. The Bucks kept everything 2v2 because they didn’t need to help more.

Butler will continue to have highly efficient games and will have a nice box score. He’s one of the smartest players in the league. He knows all of the tiny details of being an effective player without the ball. He knows how to take advantage of those little things. But that is all still different from what’s been going on. His game doesn’t feel the same as it was two years ago.

This year, it feels like his step is a lot slower when looking to beat defenders. It’s relying on grifting for fouls a lot more. On some of them, he’s getting bailed out with the hope that it gets called — he has a .737 free throw rate.

It’s looking encouraging on that end going forward for me.

For this upcoming week, they have the Raptors twice, Celtics, and the Lakers. With how the season has been going on now, it’s impossible to predict. Give me a blowout loss to the depleted Raptors, and a close win against the same team two days later, before winning convincingly against a healthy Celtics. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened.

The Heatle Things

To end the report, here are some random tidbits that could be stats, lineups, plays, actions, or anything that I found fun, as well as compiling some other content that I found interesting.

• Only 4 players have taken a charge so far this season. Robinson(3), Butler, Love, and Rozier with 1

• They are 13th on C&S 3pt% and 3rd in pull-up 3pt%. They’ve been having a great 3pt shooting season. The pull-up shooting continues to be elite, where last year they were 6th, the year before 12th, and 1st in 2022

• Check out this picture. What do you notice about their wins and losses? They win with their defense. In all of their wins they had at least 109.3 DRTG. Three games under 100 DRTG.

  

  Digging deeper, though and it doesn’t look that impressive or encouraging when looking at the opponent — The Hornets(25th on OFF), 76ers(27th), Pacers(15th), Wolves(16th), Wizards(30th), Pistons(24th), and Mavericks(4th). Five of their wins came against a team that’s 24th or worse on offense. The Mavericks were the best offensive team they faced, and although they had been cruising by without Doncic, they were without Doncic!

• The Heat have been getting to the line a lot! But that’s all Butler’s doing. They have a 0.310 free throw rate with him on(that would rank first with the Lakers second at 0.291) and they’d rank last without him at 0.196(Hornets are 30th at 0.199)

• They lead the league in defensive boxouts!

• With the Heat having a few ATOs that ended in game-winners, the Heat are fifth in points per possession out of a time-out.

• In November(11 games), Duncan is shooting 44.9% on 15.2 3s per 100. He’s 35/78! We got prime Duncan back

• With Duncan as a starter, the Heat are -2.0 in 104 minutes but they have a 121.3 ORTG(only 39% 3pt). Take him off and it’s +16.7 in 93 minutes with a 100.0 ORTG

• The starting lineup of Herro-Duncan-Butler-Haywood-Bam are -3.4 in 48 minutes with a 119.1 ORTG