The Heat Report: Who's the Third Best Player, Is Herro's Contract Fair, Looking at Players' Touches
Is Jaquez the third best player? Can you pay Herro 20% of the cap for his production? & how should some of the player's touches be distributed
Welcome to The Heat Report(name maybe still in progress)! A weekly, semi-regular thoughts, discussion & analysis of the Miami Heat. This is the place for you to get up to speed with everything that’s important, interesting, or simply fun — whether that’s news, specific games, box-scores, actions, plays, signings, trades, trends, financials, schemes — and digging deeper into the how’s and why’s through film breakdowns, stats, and analysis.
Is Herro’s Contract Fair
So, Five Reasons Sport put out a pod discussing whether Herro’s contract is fair and the general view was yes, but I don’t know how much I can agree with that.
Just looking at his contract right now, this year, he’s earning 20.63% of the cap. That would rank 54th in the league. But this doesn’t tell you anything about whether it’s fair, good, overpaid, bad, hurting the team or anything about it. Even if you simply looked at the players around him, who has similar contracts, that also doesn’t tell you anything because everyone has different roles.
But just to show, this is where he ranks in cap % vs estimated plus minus.
What matters more is their usage, production, efficiency, role, impact, team’s context and the team’s expectations. All of these factors is how I’d decide on a player’s contract. Based on all of that, I don’t think Herro’s contract is anything than a negative on a playoff team, specifically, a team that wants to contend.
In a vacuum, I’d agree that Herro’s contract isn’t unfair or should be called one of the worst. 20% of the cap isn’t something that could hamstring a team, even if a team is looking to make a push for the playoffs and compete. I don’t see Herro’s contract be an issue or a deterrence right now on teams like the Bulls, Magic, Spurs, Pistons, Hornets, or Hawks. But it definitely can be for teams that want to compete for a championship, though.
The issues with his contract start when you look at his usage and role. That’s where there’s the disconnect between two things. His usage/role with how much impact he has there and that compared to his contract.
Without going too much into this conversation, but everything starts with him not being good enough for the role he’s in with the usage that he has. Before going into the contract stuff, that’s where it starts. He’s not a guy that takes 17 shots per game whether on or off the bench. He’s not the guy to warrant 25% usage. He’s also not the guy to have so many touches or be on the ball the majority of the time.
But if that’s the case and the solution to that is to limit or lower his usage, that’s when his contract becomes an issue. Players that earn around the same percentage as him aren’t high usage players on good teams. Or said it in a different way, guys that are in lesser roles don’t earn as much as him.
This is again simply going back to how you view Herro in the first place. Of course, you won’t see an issue with his contract if you do believe he’s a starting level guard, warrants this type of usage, and should take 17 shots per game even if it’s on the bench.
Here are some players in lesser roles that I’d say he should be in when it comes to usage or touches
Malcolm Brogdon: 16.0%
Derrick White: 14.28%
Duncan Robinson: 13.8%
Norman Powell: 13.69%
Malik Monk: 12.38%
Bogdan Bogdanovic: 12.28%
Klay Thompson: 11.29%
Grayson Allen: 11.11%
Max Strus: 10.8%
Austin Reaves: 9.23%
Donte DiVincenzo: 8.14%
Everyone always wants to say is X player Y amount better than Herro. Well, is Herro x amount better than insert any of those players? Is Herro almost 8% of the cap better than Bogdanovic? Thompson? Reaves? Robinson?
Here are some players that spent most of their time off the bench:
Immanuel Quickly: 23.12%
Cam Johnson: 16.8%
Malcolm Brogdon: 16.0%
De’Andre Hunter: 15.43%
Duncan Robinson: 13.8%
Keldon Johnson: 13.51%
Josh Hart: 12.9%
Malik Monk: 12.38%
Bogdan Bogdanovic: 12.28%
Caris LeVert: 11.82%
Jordan Clarkson: 10.02%
Austin Reaves: 9.23%
If people want him to be off the bench, that’s how much typical bench players get. Even looking at some of the top 6MOTY players haven’t been earning as much.
So, where does that leave him? There’s only one way that this contract could be seen as a positive or not hurting the team and that’s Herro simply being better at the role he’s not good at currently. Because if you ask him to be a bench player or have a lesser role, you’re overpaying him for such a role where he’s not that much better than those guys — we’ll just be in the same conversation as the higher contracts being compared to Herro.
Here’s a list of players that are +/- 3% of his cap:
There are 22 players — 5 have his usage or higher. 10 have a usage of 25%. Only 5 have a usage less than 20%. The guys that have the high usage here are either good at that usage or are on bad teams. The players that have a lower usage do a lot more than what their usage say.
And if you look it from a usage standpoint that are where you may want Herro to be in, which is 17-20%:
Outside of two players, everyone else is 16% or lower of the cap.
And so, given the rest of the team’s context, it would be much better for the team to split Herro’s salary for players that are in those roles and play those roles willingly and better. Have a look at some of these players:
Two of these would fit nicely for Herro’s salary. I honestly would rather have Max Strus back and DiVincenzo. Even if you use the players previously stated that were off the bench or in lesser roles that are in the 12-14% range. That player and another one of these would better than having Herro in the current role that he’s in or in their role but at 20% of the cap.
Who’s the Third Best Player
A discussion in the 5 Reasons Sport Discord brought up the question who even is the Heat’s third best player. Number one and two are 100% locked in and there’s no discussion there. But when it comes to the third one, that’s not as clear and I think you can make a case for four different players — Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Jaime Jaquez Jr, and Duncan Robinson.
The most obvious choice, and some will probably think it’s dumb to even question it, is Herro. He is, after all, the one that leads them in points, is second in assists, rebounds, 3pt%, and would be seen as the most talented.
Firstly, here’s how each player looks in a couple of metrics:
Their Estimated Plus Minus:
Tyler Herro: +1.6 OFF / -0.2 DEF / +1.4 EPM
Terry Rozier: +1.7 / -1.4 / +0.3
Duncan Robinson: +0.1 / -0.8 / -0.7
Jaime Jaquez Jr: -1.2 / +0.1 / -1.1
Their LEBRON:
Tyler Herro: +0.72 / -0.67 / +0.05 LEBRON
Terry Rozier: +0.42 / -0.38 / +0.04
Duncan Robinson: -0.35 / -0.24 / -0.6
Jaime Jaquez Jr: -0.61 / -0.08 / -0.68
Their DARKO:
With just the metrics alone, there isn’t anyone that’s clearly above anyone — though it does kind of show that Jaquez isn’t there yet. A reminder that this doesn’t show who’s better or more talented, but trying to estimate their impact!
And here are some other relevant stats!
Now, let’s get to the discussion.
This is always an interesting conversation because it varies a lot how people define who’s better. Some simply look at things through a lens of who’s more talented and who would be the better number one option. It does feel like 1v1 skillset is emphasised a lot more than being good in a lesser role.
This is why the most obvious choice for who’s the third best player is clearly Herro(at least before the Rozier trade). He has been the team’s third best player when it comes to creating his shot for himself with the ball in his hands, has been the best pick and roll player, and has held the responsibility of a creator more than anyone else.
At least out of either Jaquez or Robinson, I would 100% have Herro as the player that could lead a team as the primary option on a bad team better than those two. If the argument is who could help the San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, or Detroit Pistons better, I would likely say Herro or Rozier. These players are typically talented enough to be floor raisers in their roles, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re better to me.
There is a level of need for that, though. That skillset isn’t entirely useless, empty stats, or a complete detriment — there’s just a limit to how impactful it can be at a higher volume. The skillset in a vacuum is highly valuable, but if you’re not good enough for that volume, then that’s when the issue comes in. That’s where less is more.
That’s why I’m not moved that much by the fact that Herro is a 20ppg scorer on subpar efficiency, even if he’s more talented. That same applies to Rozier. They’re the same archetype and tier of a player. And throughout this year and previous years(plus playoff runs) have shown that there isn’t a need for such player to be in that role.
So, to me, the team’s x best player is who helps the team more in their role. Who’s more impactful in their role. That’s where I could and probably would have either Robinson or Jaquez as the third best player.
I care more about a player being efficient in their role even if it’s lower usage or touches, being able to fit better, and can be maximised without the ball. That’s more important than being inefficient(for whatever valid reasons) in a bad role. That’s what helps this team more. I don’t care if either player would be worse if they were asked to do what Rozier and Herro do.
When it comes to Robinson, he’s one of the best 3pt shooters in the league, one of the best off-ball movers, and has drastically improved his all-around game to the point where he’s even more impactful. I talked about his improvement earlier this year here!
Here are some stats, per BBall-Index for his 3pt shooting:
2nd overall in 3pt shot making efficiency
6th in 3pt shooting talent
5th in 3pt shot making
12th in 3pt pull up shot making
3rd in 3pt pull up shot making efficiency
When you combine his top tier 3pt shooting with how he gets those looks, how dangerous he is without the ball, how well he fits within a system and better players and how he’s improved his dribble, driving, and finishing game, he has been an elite role player on offense. That’s highly important.
Going to Jaquez. I thought it was premature to call him the third best player last year and I’m still not there until further notice. But similar to Robinson, he’s another case of a player simply being effective in his role — whether or not he can expand that role with similar efficiency or impact, it doesn’t matter to me.
He was already the team’s third best player when it comes to getting to the rim and finishing there. He shot 65.3% at the rim on 6 shots per 100. That was over a third of his shots at the rim!
That rim pressure alone and the way he did it puts him up there. That’s one of the most valuable skills a player can have — can you pressure the rim efficiently? He was doing that quite easily considering he was a rookie. He did it off the dribble in isolation or pick and roll. He did in the post. He did it off-ball with his smart cuts too. Oh, and he can draw fouls, too! He’s already third out of the key rotation players.
He has arguably the most important skill and he has improved throughout the year too in his passing, driving, post game, and just the general confidence in his game. He has all of the tools and the foundation to be an effective high-level role player, especially if he improves slightly in a couple of areas.
Now, going back to the main question. Both Herro or Rozier can be the third best player, but not in that role. If the role is be high usage, near team-leading touches, at that efficiency with little change, then I just can’t see it. If they adjust their games(I’ve talked about what kind of changes here), then there may be an argument but I’d still lean on the guys that can generate easy, efficient looks.
That’s why, I’d have Jaquez as the likely candidate. I’d still want to see how he looks before making that statement, but based on everything he’s shown already and the potential “reasonable” improvement as a second year player, it won’t take much to convince me.
A Look at Each Player’s Touches
As I was writing up the idea for who’s the third best player and was thinking about players like Herro and Rozier being in on-ball roles because that’s clearly something that the team needs by poor roster construction.
The pushback for suggesting they shouldn’t be in those roles, even if they don’t have another reliable option, is always met with who else is going to do it if not them? Do we want Robinson to be the ball handler? Do we want to put more pressure on Butler? How about we just don’t do any of that.
Not having players that can play certain roles isn’t an excuse to force them into that role. We’ve seen that in two playoff runs and this year. When the team was without Herro, Lowry was injured(or bad), and they didn’t have anyone else, did Robinson, Jaquez, Martin, Max Strus, or Gabe Vincent start being used more on-ball and take more shots?
It would make sense to do so, right? You don’t have a reliable handler even with everyone healthy, so if you lose Herro, why didn’t they force another player to play above their role?
So, I ended up looking at some of the player’s touches throughout the year at different points when the situation and circumstances were different — whether it was players being out of the lineup, losing or winning streaks, and pre/post trades.
I came up with these sets:
25/10/23 to 6/11/23: The first seven games to start the season with Herro being the primary option
11/11/23 to 16/12/23: 18 games without Herro playing
20/12/23 to 14/1/24: 12 games when Herro came back but Butler missed time
15/1/24 to 23/1/24: 4 game stretch where they went 1-3 fully healthy pre Rozier trade
24/1/24 to 29/1/24: 4 game losing streak post Rozier trade
31/1/24 to 7/2/24: 5 games post the team meeting where they went 4-1
24/1/24 to 24/2/24: 13 games with everyone healthy post Rozier trade up until Herro missing time
26/2/24 to 4/4/24: 20 games post All-Star break with Herro out
I think those were the key situations over that time.
Firstly, let’s look at the top 5 players in touches in each set:
Here’s also the main guards tracking stats in those same sets:
Now, there are a lot of things to get through here and a bunch of takeaways:
The first one is pretty simple. Butler needs to be at least second in touches. This isn’t asking for a lot. This shouldn’t be a controversial take. This shouldn’t be seen as asking too much of a max player that’s the best on a competing team even at his age. Without checking, I’d bet there isn’t and hasn’t been a case where the team’s best player isn’t regularly top three in touches.
This isn’t something that they can work around with. No matter how much they want to push Adebayo, Herro, or Rozier getting more touches, it won’t result in good things. In games that Butler didn’t play, but with Adebayo and Herro on, the Heat had a 111.7 ORTG(shot 50% 2pt and 37% 3pt). Even in those stretches where did play but had low touches, the team offense sucked with all three on.
But going back to the initial conversation about needing guys to play outside of their role because of a necessity.
Take a look at the 2nd set where they played without Herro. The biggest difference was both Jaquez and Robinson getting more touches. But when you look at their individual stats, they still played within their game. They both did have a huge jump in touches but it their average time with the ball or dribbling wasn’t ball dominant. That was the same in the 8th set again without Herro.
It’s like it’s possible to not to have players be in ball dominant roles just because. This is where I don’t understand the decision to have that. Because if you think that is necessary, why didn’t they command more on-ball usage? How was it that they had a much better offense in that span without ball dominant guards?
In that stretch without Herro, Butler only had 62 touches. That also wasn’t “playoff” Jimmy or one that dominates the ball. And yet, in that span, they had a 119.8 ORTG with Butler, Robinson, and Adebayo on.
Now, a big point of emphasis is that they need Butler to at least be more involved to have success. But when it comes to others, that doesn’t impact them. Whether Butler has tried or not, played or not, guys like Robinson and Jaquez still were effective and efficient.
That’s where it all starts for this team when it comes to them being good. Is Butler more involved? Simple as that. But everything else, from Herro, Rozier to anyone else, it’s being able to play without being ball dominant and being able to be maximised without the ball.
There’s no need for three guys to have the ball in the hands around 4 minutes each. That should be Butler and Rozier. Everyone else needs to be in the 1-3 range.