Utah Jazz 2024-25 Season Preview

Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!

Season & Off-season Recap

The Utah Jazz are another one of those teams that took a year or so before they finally embraced the rebuild and hit the full reset button by focusing on development and going younger.

The off-season before where they traded both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, they were still filled with a bunch of veterans for at least half of the season. That was one of the reasons why they were winning and almost were a .500 team.

This year, they came in with three rookies — Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Brice Sensabaugh. Six players were 23 or younger that got at least 500 minutes,

The infuse of young players taking a lot more minutes did mean taking a step back from winning(Lauri Markkanen missing 27 games also helped that, they were +0.6 with him and -9.4 without him, per PBP stats).

The biggest reason for their drop-off was the defense. They were dead last, allowing 120.9 points per 100 possessions. That makes when none of the guys in the rotation are known as game-changing defenders and them being young also doesn’t help that.

That was their season. Losing, focusing on young players, giving them all of the reps they can get, and hopefully making things clearer about what they have.

Their off-season was doubling down on that. They had three first-round picks, where they used it on Cody Williams(10th), Isaiah Collier(29th), and Kyle Filipowski(32nd). Just off looking at other draft boards and what a bunch of draft experts thought of it all, it does look like they hit on this well for the draft position.

That was key for them in this off-season. They already decided to go down this path last year and they have made solid moves to continue to build on it. Adding three more young players that could turn out great is a good place to be in. It’s always going to be better having too many young prospects that are hits, than not having any. Even if, at best, they turn out to be rotational players, that’s still a good win.

The other focus of the off-season was all about Markkanen. Whenever there’s a player who’s not entirely young but also not old either and is looking to get paid, there’s always the discussion about moving him at his highest. That’s when all of the rumors will start like wildfire. Every piece is about coming up with all sorts of trade packages that don’t even make sense for either team or are legal to do.

Well, we don’t have to worry about that, at least for now. The Jazz have renegotiated an extension with him that made his salary go from 18 million to the max he can make at 42 million and will have him earn an average of 48 for four years.

What this also means is because he signed a day later, he’s now ineligible to be traded. We’ll see a full season of Markkanen in Utah again. This should also make him more valuable if they decide to trade him in the next off-season.

But that has pretty much been their off-season. No major moves outside of the draft and the renegotiation, which is still a good off-season to me considering where they are.

Key Questions & Storylines

• How will the three rookies look? What will their development look like throughout the year?

• Will Jordan Clarkson and John Collins finish the season in Utah?

• Should they explore trading Colin Sexton?

• A couple of sophomore leaps

• Will Markkanen continue his elite play and will there be more flashes of self-creation to put him in the upper tier?

The most important thing for this season is honestly the young players. That’s the only thing that matters in the grand scheme of things. There are other decisions to be made that can help that situation but aren’t that important compared to the young player’s development.

The first is looking at the potential jumps from the returning players — George, Hendricks, and Sensbaugh.

George is the main one here. For the season, he averaged 17.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per 75 possessions on 48.2% eFG and 53.3% TS. Clearly, there’s a lot to improve on.

He had a 54% 3-point rate but is shooting 33% from there. He’s already taking over 10 3s per 100. Either the volume needs to be cut down or the shooting needs to improve. But then his 2-point scoring isn’t great either, even considering him being a rookie — 60% at the rim, 43% in the short mid-range, and 34% in the long mid-range.

His splits as a starter are even worse, where he averaged 14.7 points and 5.2 assists per game on 51% TS with 24% usage. This isn’t counting him out or anything, but just that there’s a lot in progress.

Then you have both Sensabaugh and Hendricks who haven’t got much playing time or either appeared in more than half the season(32 and 40 games, respectively).

Seeing how these three players will look in their second year is the thing to watch out for.

Moving on, it’s all about the rookies. This is the exact spot that they were in last year. It’s three different rookies all looking to show what they can do.

You have Cody Williams, who Sam Vecenie describes as one of his favorite wing upside bets. A 6ft 7 wing with a 7ft 1 wingspan. A typical lengthy, athletic wing. That probably will help a lot with their league's worst defense. But at the same time, many project him to be a project at the moment, especially if his jumper takes time to develop. They have time and they have the situation to give him all of the reps that he needs.

Next, it’s Isaiah Collier. A 6ft 3 point guard. Where a bunch of draft profiles mention that he could be either very good or just a backup. So, it’s another high upside swing that could turn out the way but will likely need time and plenty of development for another project.

Then, there’s Kyle Filipowski, a 6ft 11 center. Potentially the floor spacing big. If that is legit and it happens soon, that could be a fun lineup of size with him, Markkanen, and Walker Kessler just for the fun of it. Plus having a big body in the paint is always a good thing.

That’s where all the focus will be. It’s these six players. They’re pretty much all unknowns at this point, so it’s figuring that out first.

As usual, we get to the veterans portion of rebuilding teams. When should they pull the trigger on trading either Collins or Clarkson? Should they trade them just for the sake of trading them?

At this point, we know what Clarkson is. He’s 32 years old now. He can get you buckets on high-volume shots. He isn’t entirely efficient(he did also have a down year). He takes a lot of 3s, where he’s been taking over 12 per 100 in his five seasons with Utah and is only shooting 33%. His 2pt shooting is better but not game-changing and that has declined. He’s not a passer. He’s not a defender.

He had the worst impact in his career. He has been trending upwards when it comes to his offensive impact, reaching a career-high the season prior at +1.6 but dropped to -0.8.

Will he bounce back? Probably, maybe. But even if he does, what does that do for the Jazz? He does have high usage whenever he’s on the court. Do they need an old guard taking nearly 15 shots per game? It would be one thing if he’s a vet who can handle the ball and set guys up.

What about Collins? This was his first year with the Jazz after being traded from the Hawks where he spent six seasons. But what even is Collins? He’s going to be 27 years old. He’s not an all-star player. He’s been a decent low-volume 3-point shooter. He is an efficient guy. He will finish inside and get a lot of shots inside too, even around the paint is a solid shot for him. He shot 75% at the rim with over 38% of his shots there! That is beneficial.

I don’t see the need to trade him in the way they should with Clarkson. Having an athletic, rim finisher that can make 3s is going to be helpful for the young players.

But at the same, he also just had his worst impactful defensive season

He’s never been in a great situation(he was in ATLANTA) and yet, he’s never been this low. That has been the Jazz biggest issue.

In a similar situation, you also have Sexton. What do you do with him? Do you simply sell everything and everyone for more picks and assets that you hope can round out your core?

Collins did have a solid season for them. He is only 25 years old. As a starter he averaged, 21.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists on 61.3% TS with 28% usage!

He gets to the rim. He shoots well at the rim(69%). He can handle the ball. This is one of those cases where he is at the age where he’s already good and can help situations where young players will have a better chance to develop.

It will still also be interesting to see how good can he develop himself. He only came back from an injury last year. He’s one of the cases where you trade him for the right package.

And there’s Markkanen! He’s likely not going to be part of the long-term vision. I know he got extended but that’s not a sign that he won’t be moved in the next off-season. I’d still bet he’s more likely to be moved than not, especially now.

But until then, there’s still some fun basketball from Markkanen in Utah.

Maybe he does take a leap. Maybe that leap will convince that he should be part of the long-term vision. He is still only 27 years old. What happens if they hit on a player or get a high pick for next year’s draft and you need someone like Markkanen?

Right now, he’s an elite player that can get you efficient buckets from anywhere. He’s 7ft that shoots 40% on over 10 3s per 100. He’s shooting 70% at the rim. He’s shooting 45% in the short mid-range. He shoots well from the corners on great efficiency.

He’s scoring 1.12 points per possession on spots ups with 55% eFG. He’s also scoring 1.12 PPP off-screens with 55%. Elite off-ball scorer.

Finally, will they remain the league’s worst defense? That will have to change sooner rather than later. Even though they aren’t looking to win, you can’t build those habits of having not just a bad defense, but a disgusting defense.

Because offensively, they are pretty damn good, especially with Markkanen on. With him on, they had a 120.2 offense. Add Sexton to it, it goes up 122.9. Take both them off, it drops to 108.4.

This should be better if the young players contribute too.

Predictions

• Would be good enough for around 35 wins, but will decide to lose

• Floor(worst case scenario): Near the bottom of the West, on the very outside of the play in

• Ceiling(best case scenario): Knocking on the door for the 10th seed

Now, on that note. They are elite offensively with two of their best players. They’re barely positive, though. But that still is too good to be bad. They will want to be bad.

This is going to be a better draft class. Can they afford to win a lot more than they should to get another 10th pick? Or should they embrace the tank a bit more and get a top-five pick?

I do think they were also lucky Markkanen missed 27 games — they went 9-18. They went 22-31 with him. That could be the difference between the guy you want versus missing out on him.

That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if they did sell on the other veterans at the deadline or look to embrace the tank more at the end.

I expect the same kind of season from Markkanen, though, I will be curious to see what kind of improvements he could have. Will he add some self-creation to his arsenal?

Related to improvements, I’m all for it when it comes to Sexton. I’m pretty high on him and I’m looking forward to how he’s going to look like. Were his stats and the efficiency just a small sample?

Overall, with the amount of young players that they have and their god-awful defense, I don’t expect them to win many games. But they’re also not as terrible as their competition for the top pick either.

I’m putting them at around 25-30 wins with them landing at 14th in the West.