Washington Wizards 2024-25 Season Preview
Starting today, each day for the next 30 days, it’s season preview time! I hope no real changes happen once I start releasing, though. In each preview, there will be a quick season and off-season recap. The preview will be looking at what’s in store for the team. It’s looking at some questions, things to look forward to, digging deeper into some of them. At the end, there are final thoughts with predictions for the standings, the floor, the ceiling, playoff chances, and some other fun tidbits!
Here’s a video if you prefer that on my YouTube channel!
Season & Off-Season Recap
This was probably what was expected from the Washington Wizards after they decided to blow it up last off-season. Last year, they were 35-47 and ended up 12th in the East with their best player, Bradley Beal, only playing 50 games.
So, come off-season time, they finally pulled the trigger and blew it up. They traded Beal for Chris Paul, and re-routed him for Jordan Poole. They decided to move on from Kristaps Porzingis too for essentially nothing. What was left was a bunch of players that are young, solid veterans, and players that are looking to develop but aren’t that great in those roles on bad teams.
That’s why it’s no surprise that they finished 15-67 and were 14th in the East, trailing the Detroit Pistons only by one game.
They were pretty bad on both ends of the floor, but can you blame them? They were 27th in net rating(-9.7), 25th on offense(110.9), and 29th on defense(120.6). There was no talent to raise the floor on either end.
They continued to commit to this path of overhauling the entire team. They are making changes to get younger, look to swing for high potential players, and look to acquire more picks.
One of the main moves for them in the off-season was sending Deni Avdija to the Portland Trail Blazer for Malcolm Brogdon and Bub Carrington. I feel like it was a bit surprising to move on from Avdija this quickly considering the improvements he made in his fourth year.
Last year, he came off the bench for half of his games — he ended up starting 75 games, which was the most by any Wizard player and was tied second in minutes per game. His other jumps included:
12.6 → 17.1 points per 75 possession
53.5% → 59.7% true shooting
.285 → .340 free throw rate
16.7% → 20.2 usage
13.9% → 17.8% assist percentage
53.0% → 56.0% 2pt
29.7% → 37.4% 3pt
He even got to the rim more and was shooting nearly 71%. He’s only turning 24 in January. Now, the package for him was good too getting a 14th overall pick, a vet they can move later and another pick. But at the same time, Avdija was also on a really good deal — 55m for 4 years that decreases each year. He’s going to make 11.8m in 2028. So, not entirely sure I get the reasoning behind all of this.
They also managed to lose Tyus Jones for nothing, as he signed with the Phoenix Suns. Another decision that got me wondering why they didn’t move him earlier on. One stat that also stands out with him is the fact that the Wizards were -12.5 with him but -5.8 without him. That defense went from 124.5 to 116.1.
One surprising move was a sign and trade for Jonas Valancuiunas. That was random and it’s like “okay?”. But also, based on the draft they had, it does make a bit more sense, too.
Which leads to the draft. Them being this bad did land them the second overall pick where they took Alex Sarr. And acquired Bub Carrington at 14, plus Kyshawn George at 24.
That was their off-season. Pretty good considering their expectations and the path they’re on. They have veterans that they could move. They have some young talent, some with more upside than others. And are looking to be bad again for a better draft in 2025.
Season Preview
Can Poole bounce back? What would that even be?
How will all of the young players look? There’s a bunch of them
Will they move on from their veterans?
With the big picture stuff, it’s most likely going to be the same thing. They’re going to be bad, quite bad. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the worst team in the league. But that’s the point of the rebuild when you strip everything to pieces. This is where you’re bad with hopes you hit on some high upside potential.
But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing else to watch out for.
The first thing that immediately points to mind is what will Jordan Poole look like. There were some pretty big expectations when he got traded here. I saw takes that had him be near the list of top scorers with the amount of opportunity he was going to get.
That ended up going the complete opposite way. He had one of the worst seasons out of anyone, even considering the context of the Wizards. He didn’t look nothing like the Poole we saw with the Warriors(and yes, I know that situation 100% helped him). He dropped off in so many areas.
Here’s his 2pt % since 2021:
54.5% → 55.0% → 52.4% → 49.2%
Here’s his 3pt %:
35.1% → 36.4% → 33.6% → 32.6%
Here’s his eFG%:
53.5% → 54.8% → 51.4% → 49.1%
Here’s his TS%:
58.7% → 59.7% → 57.3% → 52.8%
Dropping in every part of efficiency. One thing that did remain steady are both rim frequency and efficiency, which considering the massive change in spacing and talent around him, it’s still encouraging. But on that note, the thing that did drop off to the point it really hurt his efficiency is his free throws. Here are his free throws per 100 and free throw rate:
2021: 5.7 / .251
2022: 5.7 / .251
2023: 8.0 / .325
2024: 4.4 / .185
That needs to bounce back because it was one of the main ways he was able to score more efficiently. Even in the three years with the Warriors without Stephen Curry, he still averaged 26.4 points on 57.7% TS with 31.1% usage. In that span, he averaged 8.2 FTA per 100. The potential is there, so there’s still some hope that he may bounce back in a better situation.
Outside of scoring, I do want to see him simply pass more. He only averaged 33.2 passes but received over 46.7 and 7.4 potential assists.
What also can’t happen is the defense because that was quite bad on all counts. There’s a lot of improvements needing to happen for him to be a positive player on a team like this. But the signs were there from Golden State. He was a key player in their run in 2022. He showed the skill to be efficient. He showed flashes as a passer. It just the matter of if that happens.
The most important part of the season for them is how will the young players look. They have Sarr, George, Carrington, and Bilal Coulibaly. The season is going to be about their development. It will likely not be all great. There will be plenty of growing pains.
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic has Sarr as the highest upside player with his enormous positional size, who’s an elite defender. With Carrington, he mentioned he does a lot of things that guards are asked to do at an extremely high level with his shot making and seeing the court well — maybe him and Poole will be a nice backcourt that will help Poole more.
Finally, what happens with the older vets or even youngish players that are just there. They still have Kyle Kuzma, Corey Kispert, Richaun Holmes, Malcolm Brogdon, and Marvin Bagley.
Kuzma has been given the reigns in the last two seasons where he’s taking almost 19 shots per game! In the last two seasons, he’s scoring 23.0 points per 75 possessions on 19.4 shots. He’s also adding 4.2 assists. That hasn’t amount to much. He’s doing it on subpar efficiency with him being at 54% in these two seasons. One encouraging aspect is how he had a career high assist percentage at 20.7% and has cut his turnover percentage to 11.9%. For the most part, it is likely that he is what he is in this role. An inefficient high volume scorer with okay passing.
Although he does things that would fit better on better teams. He shot 76.8% at the rim with over 25% of his shots there. He shot over 40% from the corner in these two seasons, while upping his volume. The shot beyond corners is inconsistent and bad, though.
With the kind of contract that he’s on and him being 28 years old, the Wizards should definitely look to move on from him at the deadline.
Same thing with Malcolm Brogdon. Keep him until the deadline(or if an offer presents itself) to be a veteran presence amongst young players, especially for a guard like Carrington. Brogdon did have his issues with health, only playing 39 games, but he was still effective when he played. Another year of good 3pt shooting(41%) and over 5 assists.
Speaking of shooters. Kispert has now shot 40.2% from 3pt in these two seasons. He fits that low-volume, high-efficiency scorer archetype. Combined with his shooting, he’s shooting 64%(!) from 2pt. You’re not getting much else, but that shooting alone is highly impactful. But he’s already 25 going into his fourth year — I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved in the same way they did with Avdija.
I don’t know what is going to happen with Bagley. He’s heading into his seventh year. He’s been on three teams.
That’s what the season will be for them. Prioritising the young players, hoping Poole bounces back, and seeing what they could get for the other veterans on the team to help the rebuild.
Predictions
15-20 wins
Floor(worst case scenario): Bottom of the league
Ceiling(best case scenario): Bottom of the league but maybe not last and rookies look good
Poole will have a similar year to what he did with the Warriors
Kuzma will get moved by the deadline
I honestly don’t expect anything from the Wizards this season. A lot of it will be about Poole bouncing back, veterans getting traded and all about the development off potential young guys.
They’re literally at the earliest stage of this rebuild where they don’t even know who their young guys are. It’s seeing what Coulibaly, Sarr, and Carrington are first.
This is going to be one of those seasons where unless you’re a diehard Wizards fan, then there’s not much else to follow around this team.