What Should Each Miami Heat Player Work on or Add to Their Game
Looking at what each Heat player should focus on either improving or adding new skills to up their game
So, Five Reasons Sports this week came out with their three-part series on what each player should improve in heading into the season. Right now, they only did the guards and the wings. Having listened to it, I thought it would be fun to dig into some of the points they made, look into some stats, and add my own thoughts on what the improvements or additions to their game should be.
Tyler Herro & Terry Rozier
Starting off with both Herro and Rozier. I grouped them together because this is the Spider-Man meme. They are two players that are similar in the archetype that they are, the tier that they’re in, their weaknesses, and limitations. They just have different strengths that sets them apart in different ways.
Herro’s improvement was foul drawing and physicality, as mentioned by Brady. That makes sense. That has been the improvement needed from Herro in each of the last few seasons. It’s this skill that can make a huge difference for his game and the team.
Here are his free throws per 100 possessions over the years(starting with 2020):
3.2 → 3.6 → 5.1 → 3.9 → 3.9
Here’s his free throw rate:
0.158 → 0.167 → 0.195 → 0.164 → 0.151
That’s ridiculously low for anyone, let alone players with high usage. Out of 105 players with at least 20% usage, that 0.151 FTr would rank 94th. Even if we did his 2022 season where he had 0.195, that would rank 82nd this year(he ranked 76/101 in 2022).
It’s quite concerning and it raises a question that he has dropped in each season post-2022 after in each off-season, he, himself, said that needs to be his goal. I do wonder then if that is a skill that he can flip like this because there isn’t much of a track record of players that have done so given similar athletic ability.
This also wouldn’t be that big of an issue if it wasn’t combined with the lack of rim pressure and struggle to finish at the rim, which ties into the physicality point. However, with this, there is optimism that it could bounce back.
Here’s his rim(within 4ft per PBP) frequency:
15.8% → 20.2% → 17.3% → 13.2% → 11.1%
Here’s his rim FG%:
57.0% → 64.5% → 61.3% → 64.6% → 52.4%
This is where the improvement has to come the most. You can’t be a guard shooting near 50% at the rim and have no free throws. Out of 327 players with 500+ min and at least 2 rim FGA per 100, he’s 316th. For comparison, his % last year would’ve been 182nd. That’s a big difference and that’s probably where he should be at. He hasn’t shown at any point outside of this year that he’s a near bottom 10 player but he’s just around average.
This is probably the biggest improvement that he needs to and most likely can improve given his past track record. But if we’re talking about something new or different, instead of simply bouncing back, his shot diet still needs to improve and that’s the best route of upping his efficiency.
I’ve talked about his efficiency issues recently here, and it boils down to having more of his shots as catch and shoot 3s and eliminating a lot of those pull up 2s.
It’s changing all of that that would have his C&S 3pt frequency in high mid to high 30s, and even maybe low 40s. But it’s also making sure that his pull up 2s don’t take up nearly a quarter of his shot. That is the biggest improvement to me that he can make that would have the most significant jump in his game because even with better rim finishing, he was never efficient before.
This also applies to Terry Rozier. He has almost the exact same issues. He struggles at the rim, he’s not a foul merchant either, and also has efficiency issues due to his shot diet. It’s the same thing with low C&S and high pull-up 2s.
There is absolutely no reason they should remain with their current shot profile. It is a simple improvement(I say simple in a way that it doesn’t require huge changes or huge leaps in ability).
The good news about Rozier, he has shown much more promise in that department. In 2022, 35.2% of his shots were C&S where he had a 58.5% eFG. In 2021, it was 34.1% and had a 64.0% eFG. That increase also meant lower pull up frequency.
Another improvement that was mentioned with Rozier is him playing his game. It’s him being more assertive and looking for his shot. I think there was some passiveness initially and that felt like a given being inserted into a new team.
Post all-star break, he was averaging near 16 shots per game. He was averaging over 64 touches(Herro with 66 and Butler with 65). He had a 4.8 time of possession(tied 1st with Butler). He had the ball in his hands the most. He also dribbled the most. That’s not what his role should be because of his inefficiencies. Though that can only change depending on what Butler does.
But again, there have been signs that Rozier can play more off ball(he did so with LaMelo Ball). He was capable of having his average time with the ball and average time dribbling down significantly. He only had a huge jump in on-ball touches because Ball was missing time.
Overall, it’s simple for both Rozier and Herro. It’s them both adapting more to off-ball roles. It’s dropping that time of possession, time spent dribbling, limiting those pull up 2s, and upping that C&S frequency a lot. With Herro, it’s also about getting back to being a much better rim finisher.
Jimmy Butler
Onto Jimmy Butler. Before mentioning anything about what he needs to work on, the most important thing is to have his touches be higher and his usage with the starters be much higher. Nothing else matters if that doesn’t happen. If that doesn’t happen, that stresses out both Herro and Rozier to the point where they can’t work on the things that they should because they need to do other things.
But, going to the actual basketball, both Brady and Alex agreed on him leaning more to the mid-range and just increasing his volume from 3pt.
I don’t know how to feel about that because Butler hasn’t been a good mid-range shooter at all.
Here are his short mid-range(4–14ft) FG%(starting with 2020)
40.9% → 40.2% → 43.4% → 48.7% → 43.9%
Here are his long mid-range FG%
30.5% → 44.2% → 33.6% → 39.2% → 38.0%
He’s had one year in each area where he’s been good. The rest of the time, it’s quite bad. That’s also been the case in the playoffs(outside of the bubble).
In the last 5 years, out of 28 players with 7 short mid range per 100, he’s 25th in % — 0.15 better than Anthony Davis. Out of 101 with at least 5, he’s 62nd. Out of 140 players with 2 long mid range, he’s 126th — worse than Killian Hayes.
This shouldn’t be the type of shots that he looks to increase. It certainly should be an improvement, but to want to up his frequency in the mid-range(to save him from constantly attacking the rim) is going to hurt a lot in the meantime. Trading very efficient looks for very non-efficient looks will make the offense look worse.
That applies to his pull-up shooting too(starting in 2020):
34.4%(25% freq) → 43.3%(22%) → 43.3%(25%) → 45.1%(22%) → 39.2%(18.1%)
Butler isn’t a good shooter from the mid-range. A few small sample series clouds how’s been in his whole career. He did shoot 54.5% on over 6 pull up 2s against the Bucks in 2023… but somehow his averages for the playoffs still dropped to 40.5%. That was the case in 2022 and 2020 too.
Even when it comes to volume, he’s already pretty high up there for both ranges:
Here’s his short mid-range frequency:
32.6% → 31.8% → 36.4% → 39.1% → 37.6%
Here’s his long mid-range frequency:
13.8% → 12.9% → 12.5% → 8.9% → 8.9%
Now, I’d definitely disagree about him needing to up his long-midrange. The best solution is to hope his short mid-range jumps back to what it was in 2023.
If there is a need to change his shot diet, it should be his 3pt shooting. Though that’s a weird case because he’s never been that much of a volume shooter. He’s only had one season taking over 5 3s per 100. He’s had one season with a 3pt rate higher than 30% and five with 20%. This year, at 18% was his highest with Miami.
Looking specifically at his C&S 3s frequency since 2014:
31.9% → 19.0% → 13.3% → 10.1% → 12.3% → 12.0% → 5.9% → 7.2% → 7.8% → 6.4% → 10.2%
Outside of that 2014 year, he’s been low-mid 10s guy until he came to Miami where only last year he reached double digits. This needs to be changed. If he can at least get that frequency to be around 16–20%, that can help a lot in saving him, helping the offense, and making the fit better — as long as he continues shooting so well.
My improvement for him would be his passing. That has always been around a tier below the elite creators. And at the top, those margins are thin.
This is how Butler compared to other on-ball players in a number of passing stats. Not great. That should be the number one thing to improve on. Specifically, it’s looking to make those passes in the first place. Many times whenever he’s in the post and is drawing defenses, he hasn’t made that skip pass or did something to open up a window to then make the kick. Those decisions need to be snappier.
He still has high volume of passes, especially off drives. He’s definitely willing. Out of 34 players with 12 drives or more, he’s 3rd in pass percentage where he passes on 49% of them. Almost half of his drives result in passes. His lowest percentage in the last five years was 44%.
But just from eye test, whenever he goes to work in isolation or post ups, that’s when the volume may dip and it does look like it’s him not recognising those windows quickly enough.
I do hope we’d see a point Butler in the way he was in 2021:
This is what they need from Butler. This would make life a lot easier on everyone else and make them more effective in their role.
Jaime Jaquez Jr
With Jaime Jaquez Jr, his improvement can be the biggest factor here. His growth can change a lot for this team because of where he already was.
Here are some rim stats:
Butler: 63.8% on 6.8 per 100(35% freq)
Adebayo: 68.0% on 6.4(30%)
Jaquez: 65.3% on 6.0(36%)
He already has similar efficiency at the rim. He already has most of his shots at the rim there. He’s been able to do that in a number of different ways whether it was off the dribble, in the post, or off-ball through cuts. That skill achieved in many ways is the most important thing.
Now, it’s making improvements elsewhere — better 3pt shooting and being a pull up threat.
The 3pt shooting is more important for off-ball responsibilities. If you’re a wing in the NBA today, you need a reliable 3pt shot. It’s going to be hard to stay on the floor even if you have other skills that are good, especially if at the moment you’re not an elite on-ball option. Jaquez is not at the point where he can comfortably have the ball in his hand most of the game, so he needs to be able to make his 3s and spot up. That’s not pigeon-hole-ing him, but it’s simply a needed skill to work with other stars on a team.
He shot 27.9% on open 3s and 36.4% on wide open 3s. That just can’t be a thing. It’s a very simple improvement — make your open spot ups.
When it comes to his on-ball improvement, I do want to see more of a pull up threat. Whether it’s from 3pt, in the paint, or near the ft. He needs to be a threat there. Teams have been able to go under him all the time because he was just looking to attack. There needs to be a counter and that counter is a pull up or a floater in the paint(should get tips from Herro).
He only attempted 0.6 pull up 2s per game. As much as I had my takes on Rozier and Herro not needing to take those shots, Jaquez is in the opposite camp. He needs that to be an option.
Related to this, I want to see him be more in control. It has felt like his decision was to attack and attack, and then attack again. There should be some patience in those attacks and variety in what he does in the PNR or once he beats someone off the dribble and sees help. I’d say getting into open spaces around the paint needs to be next step.
Bam Adebayo
Finally, we have Adebayo. He’s an interesting one(I have been meaning to have a discussion about his offensive growth). There’s the obvious thing. He needs to improve on his range. That 3pt volume just needs to go up in a number of different ways.
It can start with being a popper to the 3pt. He obviously likes to stop at the elbow and take his shots there. He’s one of the only few players to take multiple C&S 2s. 14% of his shots are that but he only makes 41%. There is no reason he can’t try popping for 3pt. Even if he shoots 33%, that math still works in his favour!
This doesn’t have to replace all of his shots on pops in the PNR, but similar to Jaquez, it needs to be an option. The teams right now know that won’t be a shot he was going to take or even look to pop in that direction.
That’s my second point for his improvement. There needs to be of an intentional effort in hunting 3s. Even with team USAB, whenever he’s off ball, there are still instances where he’s looking to cut inside for the middy or that there is hesitancy when getting the pass to flow into something else. I need that confidence to be on Dion Waiters level. At this early stage in his development as a shooter, I will gladly live with the high confidence level of letting it fly and looking to get those 3s up.
This also means being better in finding spots to get those 3s. It’s not reverting back to being in the dunker spot. It’s breaking that habit and staying confident in the corner. I know Spoelstra said that they don’t see him getting corner 3s in the flow of the offense, but why? If he’s in the dunker spot either way when he’s not involved in the offense, he might as well be in that corner.
But outside of the 3pt shooting that will help him be a popper and make the fit easier when he’s away from the ball that could let them run 5-out, there are other skills he should work on.
The most important one is the handle. That’s the thing that will help him the most if he continues to be used as an on-ball option. He’s been getting those touches to increase. He’s been getting more post ups and more isolations. But right now, those have been primarily settling for a bunch of mid-range shots.
He’s only taking just under 3 unassisted shots at the rim and drives just over 5 times per 75 possessions. If he continues to be used on-ball, it can’t just be post touches and going to work near the elbow. The handle to attack and get past defenders need to be better to get to the rim.
Or, if he does continue to be used in the post more, he needs more moves. There is a move that he likes to do that every fan already knows and he still goes to it! The Celtics have been smart in the playoffs and few times he got stripped because it was already programmed to make that move. He needs variety in the post if he wants to be in the post.
He’s shooting 48% on 4.1 post ups. He’s 3rd in possessions, but out of 12 players with 3 post ups, he’s 10th in %. That has to improve by any means. Whether it’s through the handle by being able to beat guys off dribble or getting the footwork better to get higher quality looks.
Another very important thing is still learning to know when to be aggressive vs when to pass. Because of how he’s been early in his career, it made sense for him to go all in on being this aggressive in hunting for his shot. But now, he needs to have a better balance. There needs to be a better shift in being a passer vs a scorer. That’s needed if you’re going to be a player deserving of high touches and usage. It can’t all result in your shot, especially if it’s a inefficient look.
Because he is a good passer and decision maker but only in certain situations and role. As a hub and a short roll decision maker, he’s pretty damn good and I think a big reason for that is because he has his mind set already to pass. That drops whenever he needs to make those decisions in real time. If he gets it to the post looking to score but the defense comes to double, the decision making there has been quite poor.
The Others
Now, let’s get to some others:
Haywood Highsmith. I need that confidence up and stay there forever. He’s improved as a shooter — went from 33.9% on 5.6 3s per 100 → 39.6% on 7.0. I just need that to continue. There shouldn’t be any hesitation on the shot and hopefully the shooting accuracy stays there. Defenses still haven’t treated him like a shooter but that’s a thing that will only change when it changes. And he’s the only that can make that happen by continuing to make the defense pay.
Duncan Robinson. Continue to develop as a ball handler and a decision maker. He’s had more reps and more responsibilities and he has shown great growth. This isn’t the same Robinson that we knew before. If that is here to stay, he needs to continue to build on it and be able to adjust on the fly when the defense presses more.
Nikola Jovic. I need to see if that growth on defense is legit and if he can do other things on defense. He definitely grew a lot and hasn’t been a liability defensively. He served well as a help side defender, made smart plays, improved his PNR defense, and now I want to see some versatility.