What will Andrew Wiggins bring to the Heat on both ends?
A breakdown of what Wiggins can bring to the team & how it could fit
It’s now official. After many details were worked out and the deal expanded to more teams, the Miami Heat ended up sending out Jimmy Butler and received Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Kyle Anderson, and a top-10 protected 2025 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors.
That is honestly not a bad return for a player who had caused so much drama around the team in the last month or so. You’re getting three NBA-level players period for a player that played twice in 2025.
Here, we’ll be going through just the Wiggins fit on the team, so, let’s see what he will bring on both ends.
What does Wiggins bring defensively?
Wiggins is the player I’m most excited to see. He was the center of this deal. He’s by far the best player in this deal. I’d probably assume that this was the most reasonable best talent that they could’ve gotten for Butler. He’s technically a former All-Star just four seasons ago.
Right away, Wiggins comes in as their best and most athletic wing. He’s 6’7 with a 7’0 wingspan. That alone is going to make him so potentially valuable to this team.
With Wiggins, there are two kinds of players that he’s been so far in his career. There’s the Timberwolves’ version and the Warriors’ version — both have traits that can and will be useful to the Heat.
The most excitement comes in what he’s going to do on the defensive end. That has been his thing over his time with the Warriors. He has turned himself into a legit, highly impactful defensive wing that can do multiple things. The defense is where he’s going to have the most consistent value and impact on this team because of what he can provide in various roles using all of his tools.
And those tools will likely be put in place and maximized by Spoelstra in ways that there’s a chance he will have the best defensive season of his career.
One encouraging point is that he’s also been part of a defensive team with elite defensive players. This isn’t going to be anything new to him and we know how important he can be in the playoffs on that end. As you’ll see in the graph below, his highest defensive impact came in the playoffs at +1.5 in 2022 and +1.7 in 2023. There’s evidence of his physical tools translating well.
Now, he’s also coming to a team that has always been top 10 defensively. He’s coming to a team that has the best defensive coach in the league, one that can be as versatile as anyone and come up with game-altering schemes on the fly and you’re giving him players like Wiggins.
Looking at some of his impact metrics, you can see the gradual growth over his time in Golden State(there was that dip last year, but he only played 37 games and was dealing with so much of personal issues).
I don’t expect this to decline all of a sudden.
One stat that he ranks highly in is block percentage amongst wings — at least in the 80th percentile in five of his last seasons. He’s had at least 2.0% in five of his last six seasons(with last year just short at 1.9%).
Another stat to highlight is some of the potential weakside rim protection. Here’s what opponents shot against him and the difference between what was expected within 6ft:
2025: 58.9% on 4.4 attempts & 4.3% worse than expected
2024: 65.5% on 3.9 & 2.2% better(that whole season is an outlier)
2023: 61.3% on 4.5 & 2.5% worse
2022: 59.2% on 5.0 & 4.3% worse — in the playoffs that went to 52.9% on 5.5 & 10.5% worse!
2021: 55.6% on 5.4 & 6.0% worse
This is where I can see him play a better role than what Nikola Jovic has been asked to do. At times he’s the weakside defender, I can see him playing this role well.
Here are some other interior defensive metrics per BBall-Index amongst perimeter defensive roles:
There’s the help defense that he will provide using that length:
This is where you can see those grades on the interior being that high. One fun aspect that stood out a few times is the help from behind. Many of his blocks came by good timing and helping out.
There were highlights like these, too, that show the potential as a help defender:
He’s very early on the tag as the low man that took away the roll in the paint. But then using that length, he’s able to close out quickly and get the block on the 3pt(we’ll see that is a skill of his).
Some of his awareness on rotations also came up here that are so good:
He starts zoning up the difference as the help defender. He recovers beautifully against the shooter and stays with him on the drive. He finishes the possession by quickly peel switching onto Franz Wagner. Three separate parts were crucial in that possession.
It’s also smart, quick recognition like these:
It’s all of that, that makes me curious to see how Spoelstra deploys him because however he does, Wiggins has shown high-level IQ, awareness, positioning, and instant recognition to work on the fly. This will work perfectly under Spoelstra who likes to vary what the defense is depending on the opponent the most in the league.
But this part of the defense is just the extra. The main calling is being that wingstopper. Here are a whole bunch of his perimeter stats compared to other on-ball defensive players:
There are some areas that he hasn’t excelled in and is quite poor. One that immediately jumps out is you’re not relying on him to be a defensive playmaker. All of those Butler’s passing lane defense and being disruptive that way, that’s not what you’re getting.
What you are getting is an elite isolation defender that’s versatile, who takes the toughest possible matchup, and who goes over screens like a madman whether on or off the ball. Stars will get theirs, but he definitely makes them work. Plus, that takes away the matchup from someone else, which helps in other areas where you don’t have to overcompensate.
Just a side-note not entirely related to his on-ball defense but the 3-point contests also stand out being that elite.
As the off-ball defender he is much capable of rotating and recovering to shooters with ease. This has shown up a lot, whether in on or off-ball defense. He will contest those 3s — he’s 14th in total 3pt blocks.
This is something that the Heat had not had in basically forever. Since 2020, there are only two players with matchup difficulty over B — PJ Tucker in 2022 and Haywood Highsmith this year. His matchup difficulty is so high because these are the top players he’s on this season:
Luka Doncic 84 partial possessions
Anthony Edwards: 82
Desmond Bane: 56
James Harden: 55
Jayson Tatum: 54
Jalen Williams: 52
Jalen Green: 50
Shai Gilgeous Alexander: 50
LeBron James: 49
Kevin Durant: 45
There was only Tucker that had above B+ perimeter isolation defense. The Heat never had someone as good as Wiggins in different areas whilst taking on the most difficult matchups.
He has been tasked with defending all kinds of players that vary in size, athleticism, and role. Using his tools, he’s been able to defend each type of offensive player well. If it’s a guard that likes the 3pt, he’s able to contest it well. If it’s someone bigger, he’s been able to absorb it and stay with them.
Related to that, he has also defended drives well:
But this is where the fun comes in. It’s when you look at Adebayo’s related stats and see how they match up together:
This might be one of the best defensive duos in basketball. The terror that they’re going to cause is going to be so fun to watch. I think that also means Wiggins isn’t in the same role as he's been because he will have Adebayo.
Related to that, when it comes to his positional versatility, this is the percentage of time he’s spent in each position:
As you can see, a lot of is on guards. He’s defending guards the most in each season. That’s exactly what the Heat have needed for a long. But also note that he can switch and guard up if he needs to. He has spent considerable time on bigger wings and even bigs. That’s also going to matter.
For comparison, this is what the Heat’s stats look like:
That’s the defensive versatility that they haven’t had since PJ Tucker, except this is likely going to be better in a different way. The switching scheme now, mostly switching 1-4, might turn the Heat back to an elite defense. There’s so much potential here.
After going through his seasons and watching some of the defense, I’m getting more excited to watch this. This could be a game-changer on defense because of how significant of an upgrade this is.
Adebayo doesn’t have such an elite defensive wing in those areas(Butler was used differently). The load defensively that Wiggins carries definitely makes life easier on everyone else. This has addressed their biggest weakness in six years — this can also be helped more with the next players coming in, too.
But what about the offensive side?
What does Wiggins bring offensively?
The fit is there just as there was with Caleb Martin and Highsmith. He fits that off-ball role. There are more questions, concerns, and just the overall effectiveness offensively. I don’t expect this to be that big of a difference in what they do or provide a significant impact on what they already do.
Here’s what his play types look like to get a picture of where and how he’s used:
Immediately, we can see that he’s most used in the pick-and-roll and spot-ups. Those are the two areas that makeup ~45% of his offense. ~35% of his offense comes in as self created(post ups, PNR, isolation).
But looking deeper, that is a high number for him. That hasn’t been the case for Wiggins at all. Here’s his PNR freq over the years and his self-created freq:
2025: 23.5% & 34.9%
2024: 13.4% & 27.0%
2023: 7.9% & 20.8%
2022: 16.3% & 32.3%
2021: 22.2% & 38.5%
2020 Wolves: 36.4% & 49.5%
2020 Warriors: 29.8% & 37.9%
2019: 26.5% & 42.7%
2018: 23.5% & 42.1%
This is the highest he’s been used in the PNR since 2020. This has also been the highest self-creation since 2021.
His other tracking stats showing his time with the ball also have been low until this year. Here’s his time of possession, average seconds, and average dribble per touch:
2025: 2.2 / 2.80 / 2.1
2024: 1.7 / 2.82 / 2.01
2023: 1.8 / 2.28 / 1.48
2022: 2.3 / 2.96 / 2.15
2021: 2.4 / 2.99 / 2.20
2020: 4.1 / 3.7 / 2.94
2019: 2.6 / 3.23 / 2.24
2018: 2.1 / 2.90 / 1.95
Now, that is the first question of what direction the Heat will go to with. Is he going to be used more like his 2023 and 2024 self or what he’s been doing this year?
I can see a bit of both, leaning towards more self-creation and that’s because the Heat lack that secondary guy. It may not be entirely great results, but I can see a lot more actions run through him too. He has the tools. There’s clear evidence of him being capable of running stuff to score in various ways — the PNR, isolation, and post-up splits have been relatively even.
I don’t see this team as one that will just put him in a spot-up role in the same way he was in Golden State. And to be fair, his increased role probably has to do with the team also lacking other scorers.
Looking at his efficiency in those play types, I can see the Heat using him a lot more in the post — maybe he is the Butler replacement. I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see a lot more Wiggins on-ball. After all, there isn’t anyone else on the team that deserve the touches more.
His PNR game… is quite bad. Since 2020, only two seasons have scored over 0.9 points per possession. On the other hand, his post-ups look to have more potential. He has scored over 1.0 points twice and all other seasons are over 0.9 by a good margin — that’s better than what Adebayo has been doing.
He has got plenty of drives right to the rim off PNR. But there’s more of a reliance on the paint or in the mid-range from him if he’s the one creating. That’s why his FG% on shots he creates for himself has tended to be lower.
Here’s his 2pt% on shots with a touch time of 6 seconds or higher:
2025: 37.0% on 1.3 FGA(9.5% of FGA)
2024: 43.9% on 1.2(10.8%)
2023: 33.3% on 0.4(2.9%)
2022: 44.6% on 1.3(9.2%)
2021: 47.7% on 1.9(12.6%)
Translation. Don’t expect to run a lot through him and get good results.
On the other hand, his grades in related stats still paint him as a good enough option to explore things:
His post-ups also wouldn’t just be for him to score. He played under Steve Kerr, so we know what those post-ups can be. Post splits. He’s another player on the team along with Adebayo, Jovic, and Jaquez Jr that can play in the post to try and make plays for others. This is one area that I feel is most likely for him.
This whole potential self-creation side of his game is the thing that I’m most looking forward to seeing how it could play out. The off-ball and how he fits there is simple enough. But with this, there are a lot more options and routes Spoelstra can go with.
It’s been said all season that there needs to be someone who can take the heat from Herro. As a secondary option, I think Wiggins can comfortably step into that better than anyone else on the team — big distinction here. I don’t think this would be something you rely on to get elite results, but it’s better than anything they’ve seen in the non-Herro or Adebayo minutes.
Here are some other stats related to self-creation and also drives and rim pressure:
One encouraging statistic is that he’s had seasons in his career where he’s been capable of drawing fouls. He’s taken 6.5 per 100 poss in his career, with three seasons over 8. For comparison, that 6.5 would rank second this year behind Butler. He’s already coming in as one of the better foul drawers on this team.
I do have some concerns about his passing. A career of 3.3 assists per 100 possessions. A career 10.7% AST to 9.6% TOV. That’s not a good sign and it hasn’t looked like it has ever been trending upwards. He likely won’t be a guy to look to create for others even as a secondary option. There are still some positives here in low volume, with the potential to improve, but it does feel like it won’t be anything special.
None of those numbers stand out. He’s really not the guy to be passing a high volume. There’s some hope that in the two seasons that he was classed as an off-ball wing, compared to that group, he does grade out much better:
Still, a lot of his assists have come in the PNR, mainly on kicks but also has plenty of possessions finding cutters or hitting rollers. That is encouraging. That has looked good enough in limited reps as a secondary guy.
He has looked good at finding those cutters. That looked the best on watching his assists. Also surprisingly, I can see Wiggins has better options on this team. The Warriors haven’t been great offensively.
One simple thing I always look at is how many of your assists are simply extra passes. The more the better.
Nothing special. Nothing that any player can’t do. And that’s the point. Every player can do this. It’s just seeing how often they swing the ball without hesitation. Will they move the ball in that 0.5 seconds time. That has shown up a lot with him. In the Warriors system, that is expected.
I haven’t seen many of these plays on the short roll:
But this can be something used. I would expect his usage as a screener to go up in the same way as Jovic and Butler were used. With his good instinct at finding cutters, I can see a lot of Herro-Duncan PNRs with him and lobbing for Adebayo or Ware.
Similarly, with the post splits:
Expect that to be used a lot with him, too.
Moving onto the off-ball, that has been the role he’s played for the most part with the Warriors. Here are his spot-up numbers over the years(poss/freq/PPP):
2025: 3.7 / 21.7% / 1.12
2024: 3.6 / 26.9% / 1.04
2023: 4.5 / 27.3% / 0.97
2022: 4.6 / 27.2% / 1.07
2021: 4.0 / 22.0% / 0.97
2020 Wolves: 3.2 / 13.7% / 0.90
2020 Warriors: 2.9 / 14.9% / 1.14
He has been in that role, but it’s been a bit up and down when it comes to efficiency.
Starting with his 3s, that has improved, especially with the Warriors. He’s a career 35.6% shooter on 6.0 3s per 100 and 38.1% on 7.8 with the Warriors. This year, he’s shooting 39.6% on 8.9.
Here are his C&S 3pt numbers over the years. They make up the majority of his 3s.
2025: 40.2% on 3.9
2024: 34.7% on 3.0
2023: 42.5% on 5.2
2022: 41.0% on 4.3
2021: 38.7% on 3.7
Here’s also his wide-open 3pt%:
2025: 43.5% on 2.6
2024: 36.0% on 1.8
2023: 45.5% on 2.8
2022: 46.7% on 2.3
2021: 41.7% on 2.2
In the last five years, he’s 448/1136 on C&S 3pt(39.4%). And he’s 280/655 on wide-open 3s(42.7%). Those are good enough numbers to make the defense pay. He’s also a reliable corner shooter, shooting 40.8% for his career but it’s also his ATB 3pt that’s been consistently in the mid to high 30s. He’s turned himself into a solid enough shooter that defense should respect — he hasn’t shot below 36% from ATB 3pt in the last five years.
The benefit of his spot ups compared to someone like Highsmith is that he can also attack closeouts better. A lot of his rim attempts have come from being able to attack off the catch and get to the rim.
Surprisingly, he’s also been used in handoffs and off-screen at a relatively low volume, though. The results are up and down, but also feel good enough as an option to have. Here’s his PPP on off-screen and handoffs:
2025: 1.17 & 1.04
2024: 0.85 & 0.97
2023: 1.40 & 1.03
2022: 0.91 & 0.85
2021: 0.79 & 1.01
All of this just brings versatility and options in how he can be used. It may not be elite or something you rely on one particular option, but it does give you options that can work.
Then there’s also this, which is something that the Heat lack a lot. Someone that can finish off easy baskets — though there’s a concern on the drop-off.
Here’s Wiggins FG% at the rim:
2025: 58.7%
2024: 62.5%
2023: 72.3%
2022: 71.5%
2021: 67.7%
He’s a career 64.5% at the rim with six seasons above 67%. I wonder what the drop-off has been to near career low level, though. Hopefully, that is just a blip, rather than a decline.
But this is where he’d ideally help and it would help a lot. The Heat rank 25th in 2pt% off 0 dribbles with 62.6%. They also rank 21st in cuts PPP at 1.25.
Here’s Wiggins’ FG% on 2s off 0 dribbles and cut PPP:
2025: 62.2% & 1.36
2024: 59.2% & 1.29
2023: 66.3% & 1.43
2022: 68.1% & 1.33
2021: 66.0% & 1.36
This is where I can see the fit being perfect. This is bringing another Highsmith who can play that role well and is better at it. You can never have enough players that can get easy baskets at the rim efficiently.
With that skill and seeing which team he’s coming from, I expect almost identical situations with him. He’s going to get those cuts where he’s behind the defense. There were plays for him out of the inbounds that the Warriors run for him — expect some variations for him here, too.
He has a handful of cuts after screening and via post-splits. That’s all going to work well with everyone here. That shouldn’t change. That will also bring a similar wing that’s capable of doing so that they had with Butler.
There’s also the sudden back cuts that he’ll bring. We’ve seen similar plays with Herro/Duncan getting overplayed and Jovic having a back cut. That will be Wiggins, except a much better rim finisher than any of our wings.
On the other hand, Wiggins hasn’t been viewed great in impact metrics offensively:
He has been below average efficiency from 2pt, 3pt, eFG%, and TS% for his career averages. His 2pt% is what hurts him a lot recently, as well as his FT% shooting, which is kind of concerning too at 70.3% with the Warriors. His highest TS% is 56.8% in 2021. The lack of assists and high turnover rate relative to the AST% is also worrying and hurts his impact.
A lot of that comes from a poor shot diet, which I also would think is going to change, considering the Heat’s drastic change with everyone. It won’t be sudden, but I do think a shift will come.
Because looking at his shooting splits, you can see where the inefficiency comes from. He doesn’t get to the rim a big bunch. He has more shots within 4-14ft than any other area, but the efficiency has improved over the years. And there’s a considerable reliance on that long 2, which he’s shooting poorly from.
One very important point that has to be mentioned is he was playing with Stephen Curry. That is a factor that has to be considered. This isn’t an ordinary teammate that he played with. Sure, he still has those tools and he still did the job, but having the generational player makes a huge difference. There’s a reason why almost every teammate Curry has played with drops off if he’s not on the court.
Since 2021, here are some stats with and without Curry:
2pt%: 53.1% vs 48.1%
2pt FGM assisted%: 59.9% vs 40.4%
3pt%: 40.0% vs 34.4%
eFG%: 55.8% vs 49.4%
TS%: 57.8% vs 52.8%
Usage: 21.3% vs 25.4%
Shot quality: 0.521 vs 0.494
He will be playing with better players compared to when he played without Curry, but I also wouldn’t expect to have the same results as he did with Curry. He has a different kind of impact that not many players ever can replicate.
But overall, the offense still should be good enough to what the Heat need. If you do see him as an uber-charged Highsmith, that’s where the impact offensively can come. That should be the expectation. It will be likely that the team’s offense remains relatively the same. He doesn’t raise the floor of a team’s offense like that.
He can be that spot-up shooter, where he’s comfortably a 40% on either C&S or wide-open looks for the last five years. He can put the ball down and attack closeouts to get to the rim. He can finish at the rim so well. All things that the Heat will easily welcome.
Then there’s the added bonus that you won’t see with Highsmith and it is that potential to be used more on-ball. That is what I want to see Spoelstra figuring it out. In the non-Herro minutes, I can see Wiggins take on a much bigger role. That’s where the experimentation will happen, and he has the tools, plus the potential talent to unlock more. On that note, it should still be cautious expectations. In the last three seasons, without Curry, he averaged around 19 points per 75 on 51% TS with 24% usage. Not great.
As far as his overall game fitting with both Herro and Adebayo, this is a great fit.
Overall thoughts
So, I think this can be as good of a fit as you could’ve gotten. That fit and impact is carried on the defensive end. That is where we’ll see Wiggins help the most.
The effectiveness of his play in a role that the Heat severely lacked over the years is going to be a great change for them. His defense will have a compounding effect on everyone else. It saves Adebayo. He won’t be the only one that can reliably defend at that high level. It helps Highsmith be put in different positions, too because all three are capable of defending different roles. There’s so much versatility with those three. Plus it will help to have a plus defender at all times.
They can run out lineups that not only have size and length but have that size also capable of locking up guards and going around screens.
I need to see a lineup of Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Haywood Highsmith, Bam Adebayo, and Kel’el Ware. That is beautiful.
The thing I’m most excited to see defensively are things that I wouldn’t even think of. Spoelstra has already been a wizard defensively all these years without such talent. Now, there’s more size and defenders that can do things that no one on the Heat was capable of. That gives him options to come up with things he couldn’t do earlier. Spoelstra being a defensive wizard is at the top of the list.
Offensively, the fit is no issue. I don’t see any way that could cause problems. I’m just not there when it comes to how much it will impact significantly. The off-ball stuff certainly helps. That’s bringing another player that is capable of playing a role that a team needs.
He’s been a reliable off-ball player who can spot up and has been used in diverse ways on cuts, handoffs, and off-screen, giving Spoelstra more ways to cook things up. I also do like the fact that he’s coming from the Warriors system. That does matter in how it can be translated here.
But there’s also the benefit of having another capable ball handler. He has seen an increase in his PNR and self-creation. He can do it. He can handle the ball. He’s likely going to be one of the better foul drawers on the team too.
This won’t be a game-changing offense, but for this team at this stage, that’s good enough. This isn’t a Butler replacement. This is another wing that can play in roles we’ve seen Jaquez, Highsmith, or Martin play. That’s the offense we’re getting, and hopefully, it’s an uber-charged version that will be effective in different ways.
I’m excited to see Wiggins play for this team. This team can have the potential now to turn the defense up and that’s the most fun thing.