What's Been Going on With Bam Adebayo Part 1: A Discussion On His Game
Discussing what's been going on with Bam by looking at how we got here with his game
So, this has been a rough start to the season for Bam Adebayo offensively. This was something I wrote about right at the beginning of the season in the second week of The Culture Report. But that was also a slightly different conversation to what’s been going on now.
To answer what’s been going on with Adebayo and why he’s been looking rough offensively, it’s a combination of so many factors. It’s a nuanced discussion that doesn’t start just in this season. What’s been going on now has been an issue trending this way for the last two seasons.
But it’s easy to point to him going through a rough shooting slump, which certainly plays a part, but that would still be leaving so much on the table. Because although a big part of the struggle is a shooting slump right now, even if he wasn’t going through it, there would still be similar issues.
This does feel like beating a dead horse but nothing has changed and it’s is important whether it’s for this year or going forward with any build to compete or rebuild. Until everything gets addressed, they’ll remain in this spot with him offensively and it will continue to make the offense difficult to figure out.
That’s what this 2-part piece is going to look at. It initially started as one but the more I wrote and the more things I talked about, it became too much. But I believed it was also necessary to include all of that discussion to add context to even attempt to see where and why Adebayo is struggling. It’s not as simple to just look at this season alone.
Part one discusses prior seasons, what has changed in his game over the years(and for what reasons), how we got to this place, and what potential fixes going forward are.
In the second part, we’ll break down this season in more detail and dive into how he’s been used and how he’s looked. We’ll look at a bunch of film and stats and all of the smaller details in his game and why that hasn’t translated into efficient, impactful offense.
How Did We Get Here?
This question alone has a lot to unpack where I don’t even know where to begin. It’s everything tied together. Everything is connected. From how he looked in college when he got drafted, acquiring Butler, developing him into a hub offensively, turning him into a scorer, setting high expectations, and also roster construction.
What’s worse in trying to figure this out is the fact that it started when Adebayo got drafted in the first place and I wasn’t following basketball like that at the time. I can’t tell you in great detail how he was looking early on in his career and how this development started.
I do remember that he was seen as that big man who could potentially, in the near future, develop into a big that handles the ball, has more responsibility, and can be a walking mismatch. But how likely that was going to happen or how fast was still up in the air? One clear memory is of him in summer league where he did that euro-step in transition.
How real all of that was was a big question, and the leaps he took in his development compared to where he was are massive and insane. Looking back at his draft day comparisons, strengths, and weaknesses, it is ridiculous to see what he’s done, how much he’s improved, how much he diversified his offense, and how he turned some of those weaknesses into strong strengths.
He clearly had the physical tools that you’d want. He showed enough flashes and promise that could realistically be developed. He was also developing at an accelerating rate, even when the Heat was pushing to compete with Jimmy Butler — who envisioned Adebayo being important in how the offense was run in 2020? He continued to develop into the shot creator that he is now.
And of course, when you have such a player, you obviously look to invest in that and see how far it can go because if this does hit, you’d be having a 2-way superstar that has the physical tools and the potential skill to be that guy offensively. The issue with that, is those players are extremely rare, and more often than not, it won’t pan out.
That’s where the issue started to snowball for me and it’s been gradually getting bigger and bigger. As much as the roster construction has also played a significant part, nothing has been more significant than pushing(and hoping) that Adebayo can live up to the no-ceiling potential.
The push was always there and early on in his development, it was 100% needed to make him a more impactful player offensively. There were glaring holes and flaws in his game that were on full display in that 2021 playoff series against the Milwaukee Bucks. That was even on display in the bubble at times.
We all remember him not looking at the basket and being taken out of a game completely where he looked like a deer in headlights. There was a need to improve that. And that’s exactly what he did. He turned it all around. The jumps that he has made have been highly impressive.
That’s why the general approach to develop Adebayo into a player who is capable of doing more, someone who can create shots for himself, someone who can give you 30 points, someone who can go get his spots(even if it’s an inefficient mid-range shot), and someone that can raise the floor of a bad team offensively with his combined passing and shot creation. That wasn’t an issue. That’s never an issue regarding any player. What team or player doesn’t want to diversify their offense to be more versatile, more adaptable, and more resilient to different kinds of defenses they face?
The issue arises when that’s pushed even further beyond what the player’s strengths are or what they have shown in their development by giving them even more usage and more touches, more responsibilities, and more freedom to get whatever shots they want in however way they want. That’s what we’ve seen happen with Adebayo each season and I bet the roster’s context also played a big part in that decision.
My general view on that is that general skill development is always needed but it becomes an issue with how it’s used and the volume.
This has been a gradual increase each year over the last three seasons.
You can see clearly in his usage since 2020. The touches remain relatively the same. So does the total offensive load. What has changed ever since the 2020 season is the uptick in on-ball actions.
Here are his isolation and post-up frequencies:
14.4% → 22.4% → 24.1% → 24.0% → 32.2% → 27.9%
That’s very clearly a different player and that was done on purpose to continue to develop him into that mold of a shot creator instead of a hub that he was in 2020. The whole idea of what Adebayo should be has changed.
We see that by some of the comments, Pat Riley made last year that he expected one of Adebayo or Tyler Herro to step up and be the 25ppg scorer. They clearly wanted either of those players to be capable of doing that. And in their defense, they have shown flashes.
But just because a player has shown flashes or that they can do it at a decent level, it doesn’t always mean that they should either.
When looking back at how Adebayo was seen in 2020 and 2021 offensively, where he wasn’t aggressive, he wasn’t looking to score, and where he had some nights that you’d be asking if he even played. Those were all valid criticisms. That’s where I do believe it was right to nudge him in this direction where he was given the keys to be as aggressive as he can.
Now, it feels like it’s been overcorrected. They pushed too far in that direction for a player who hasn’t shown the skills needed to be in that role to warrant that usage.
We all probably remember his Celtics series in the bubble where he went off. He was aggressive. He was attacking off the dribble. There wasn’t anything that they could’ve done to stop him. We also continued to see him develop a jump shot. He has grown to be a reliable shot creator getting to his spots and being a tough shot maker.
But that’s also where the issue lies. A player showing flashes of a handle or showing flashes that he can make tough mid-range shots isn’t a sign of encouragement to push them further. Him having a bag isn’t good enough to warrant such high usage or have his top ways of getting an offense through self-creation. Him having a mid-range game is also not a sign for him to take even more — Not just related to Adebayo, but I do feel like there’s an overrating of that ability.
I’ve touched on this the last few years too when I evaluated Adebayo as a primary creator. This was written in December 2022 and pretty much every single point there still applies. That was TWO years ago and they’re still asking him to do all of that.
That’s the overcorrection and that’s how we got here. A player showed reasonable flashes of being able to do more but not at the volume, you’d probably envision him to.
On the other hand, it also feels like if you ask him to take a step back, it will be asking him to pigeonhole himself in a lesser role where he’s shown he’s more capable of doing more. But again, just because you are capable, it doesn’t mean you should. There are players who are good enough in these roles and situations but aren’t great enough to lead to anything good.
This is just from personal experience interacting with fans and other creators, but it does honestly feel like it’s a disgrace to suggest he’s still a role player offensively in a similar way to someone like Jarrett Allen, Draymond Green, Jakob Poeltl, Ivica Zubac, Brook Lopez, or Isaiah Hartenstein.
Because a lot of those bigs aren’t capable of doing what Adebayo can do when it comes to self-creation, it feels like he doesn’t belong in that group. Almost all of those players are limited to being play finishers and needing others to create everything for them. That’s clearly not what Adebayo is anymore. But does that mean he is above them entirely because of the self-creation boost to the point it’s playing a completely different role?
That’s where I’d completely disagree. The way he was being developed should have still included having the things those bigs usually do as the foundation and as the part of his offense and everything else rounding it up. Not the other way around.
So, where does that leave Adebayo now?
Where Do We Go
I’ve discussed in the deep dive on Adebayo, where amongst those bigs, he is ahead of them in so many metrics and stats, especially when it comes to creation. But if you put Adebayo against other capable creators even at his size, he’s amongst the worst.
That’s the dilemma. You have a player that is more versatile, has more skills that can translate to creation for himself and others, and is capable of having an offense run through him than a typical big. But that player is also not at the level where you should run stuff through.
I’ve said this numerous times for numerous players. In an ideal world, it’s always better for a player to be uber-charged and overqualified role player than a player being overextended.
Specifically with Adebayo, there has been a clear pathway to be that and it all has to do with his versatility offensively. He is extremely versatile when compared to other bigs. That’s what always put him up tiers for me.
Check these talent metrics compared to other bigs:
If you combine his seasons from 2021 to what he’s done recently, that’s where you get the perfect offensively big offensively, especially if he continues to develop his 3-point shot.
He started off being a very efficient rim runner and a roll threat. He was doing all of the big man's job very well. He was one of the best finishers at the rim. In 2020, out of 42 players with at least 300 rim attempts, he was 11th in FG%. The following year, out of 33 players, he was third. He was going to finish whenever he rolled hard to the rim.
He is an athlete. He is a guy that can barrel through anyone at will and finish through contact. That’s why he was amongst the top in finishing. But that has also gradually gone away in favor of those mid-range shots and playing like Nikola Vucevic.
Here are some of his stats on the offensive glass and screening stats compared to other bigs:
He was also a capable finisher on the short roll in the paint. His short mid-range went from 38.7% in 2019 to 47.1% in the last 4 seasons(2021-24)
That short roll ability grew and grew until he was the hub offensively. In 2021, he was second amongst bigs in potential assists per 100 passes. That was the Heat’s offense. He’s shown he can be a passer in the short roll, in the post-split, in delay actions, as a hub on the elbows, or even in transition. Look at the passing stats compared to all bigs:
This is as elite as you can get from a big in that role. That’s one of the things that makes Adebayo so effective and useful to every team. But what separates him is the fact that he’s ahead in the self-creation:
The self-creation is an issue if it’s at volume and it’s used as most of his offense to get him going. He hasn’t had a good enough handle to consistently beat slower bigs off the dribble. He doesn’t have a good enough post-game to punish anyone(regardless of size) in the post. He also looked like he didn’t want to go through contact anymore whether it was in isolation, post-up, or diving hard.
So, there’s nothing that stops Adebayo from being more effective. He does have the skill set to be a lot more impactful than he is offensively. We have seen him be something else. We just never seen everything fit together at once.
But going forward, he has everything as disposable. The only thing that has stopped him from being more impactful is the 3-point shot, which is continuing to be developed. Outside of that, there’s nothing else that I can think of that would hinder him or the team from an ideal role. What else would you want from a big one?
The answer to where we go is simple. It’s just a matter of acceptance and commitment to that role from both the team and Adebayo going forward.
Finally, I do want to touch on the general roster construction because that has been another argument and a factor in this, but I’m not sure how much I buy into that. Roster construction is way lower on the list of reasons why we’re here.
Adebayo has changed his whole play style and how he’s used in the offense because of poor guard play. He hasn’t changed because the best player doesn’t take 3s. He hasn’t changed because the offense needs it.
Having a better guard 100% helps in certain departments. It would make some of his life easier elsewhere. But that would more add things rather than change his game.
Would having Trae Young or Luka Doncic mean that the Heat see him as Jarrett Allen or a player that has a lower ceiling? I don’t think so and that thought process around Adebayo’s ceiling is the biggest factor.
Would having those guards also mean that Adebayo suddenly has a better handle or a polished post-game? Is he making decisions better with the ball?
Because I don’t see where any of that changes with better teammates. I’m not saying there would be any changes, just not in the factors that led to this spot in the first place.
He would have a guard that can actually take someone off the dribble, draw defenses better, and make better reads. But is Adebayo doing the things that is also needed to make that work? He has hinted or said on numerous occasions that he doesn’t see himself as a big. Through his game, he’s also hinted that he doesn’t want to bang bodies in the paint constantly rolling hard.
As for the argument that the offense needs it what other options do they have? Nowhere does it say that if a team lacks a creator, you push players that aren’t good enough for that role? If that was the case, why hasn’t Duncan Robinson over the years been tasked with running more PNRs? Why haven’t we been running isolations for Caleb Martin at a higher volume? We obviously lacked guard play.
Why do other bigs on other poor teams don’t run almost 30% of their offense be self-created in isolation or a post-up?
To end this, I also want to note that I’m not saying this part is entirely on Adebayo. He isn’t hijacking the offense or likely demanding the ball to have the offense run so much through him. That is the coach's and the entire team’s decision that factors in potential and development.
They obviously still see him as someone who should warrant that kind of usage in such a way. They obviously still want to push him in that direction to continue to develop him in that way. But I just wonder if that is still the right decision after three years of him showing what he is in that role.
Because that whole view affects the team. If they didn’t have such a high potential view on his ceiling, I doubt we’d have a whole offense that revolves around getting him going.
Do we think the Cavaliers ever thought let’s give Allen 10 ISO/Post ups possession to get him going in a game?
But now that leaves us where do we even go? Where do we go for this season and the following years? You've already given a player so much freedom to grow, that it may seem like you’re restricting him by putting him back in a box. How do you even develop an offense? Do you plan with Adebayo to be involved in that way? Or do you completely flip the switch?
At the same time, how would Adebayo even feel about changing his game completely after changing his game completely? Because there is the issue with him not really wanting to change back to that kind of role offensively. But then again, his strengths and skillset still put him only into a big-man role.
This is a complicated situation and I don’t think there are any easy answers or solutions going forward, which makes all of this and any further analysis of his game more difficult to talk about.
So, that is the whole discussion about Adebayo that hopefully puts his struggles in some context. Everything revolves around being still put in a role that he shouldn’t be in because of the hope that he has no ceiling.
I don’t think that view is dependent on roster construction or out of necessity but, for better or worse, still has complete faith and belief that he can make the jump.
Regardless of the reasons, it has happened the last two seasons and it’s continued to go in this direction, which has also played a part in the struggles this season.
The way he gets his offense hasn’t changed(which we’ll look at in more detail) but how the offense fits his offense has changed slightly. It has been a different offense that had trouble incorporating his style of play into it. That’s where I can see it being more difficult to get him going with the way he wants to get going and at what volume.
The shooting slump only makes matters worse but that’s again tied to the previous point. How is a player meant to get in rhythm if the way he got into rhythm has changed?
One major has been the opening plays. Last year, there were set plays that got him going in this spot right from the start. That hasn’t been the case. That can affect the rhythm.
And that’s what we’ll be going through in more detail in part two, which will be released later today.