What's Been Heating Up: The Miami Celtics Were on Display

How & Why the Heat turned into the Celtics taking 54 3s

The Miami Heat got a convincing win at home against the Toronto Raptors, winning 121-111. It was a close game right until it wasn’t. They had nine lead changes and seven times tied. The third quarter was a game of runs that luckily had the Heat take the last swing and never looked back.

But it was the Heat’s offense that was interesting and that’s what we’ll be breaking down today

The Heat took 54 3s out of 94 shots. That’ 57.4% 3pt rate. That is the highest 3-point rate for the Heat this season and for comparison, this would’ve only ranked 10th for the Celtics.

Here is their shooting by quarter & the 3-point rate:

• 1st: 2/17(12%) & 17/25(68%)

• 2nd: 5/10(50%) & 10/24(41%)

• 3rd: 7/12(58%) & 12/23(52%)

• 4th: 7/15(46%) & 15/22(68%)

Not only did they take a lot of 3s, but outside of that first quarter, they were on fire — 19/37 through three quarters. That is definitely a good recipe to win when things are going right.

But was this chucking up 3s? Was this a poor process that ended in 3s? Were they too reliant on it? How much of it was what the offense wanted it to happen versus the defense forcing that hand and as a result becoming reliant on the 3-point shooting? I guess you can say in other words, was their 3-point shot created because they created an advantage that capitalised on it?

That all depends on several factors, such as who shot the ball, how contested it was, what actions they ran, when on the clock it was taken, or did their previous actions for other shots were prevented.

There’s also the point where the shot itself could’ve been a good shot in that moment and in that situation but the fact they got themselves into that situation or settled for the shot, that’s not good. But that’s more of a question for was the offense good, rather than the shot itself.

Because if the offense stalled or the possession stagnated, you'll take what you can get. On top of that, the results don’t matter in the end for me. A good shot of a good offensive possession can still lead to a miss and vice-versa.

Here’s a video of their makes:

A lot of their 3s were coming in with the defense overhelping and packing the paint. On a lot of these isolation drives, there was defense already looking to dig in strong and even rotate early to force those kicks. Take this 3-point:

The first action goes nowhere with the Duncan-Adebayo PNR. Herro is able to attack off the catch right into the help of Walter. That’s an easy kick to Haywood for the open triple. That’s the kind of help they were seeing early and the 3s were the correct read, most often being one pass away.

The Raptors were determined to stop them from getting closer to the rim at times. Butler was curling off the screen and had a drive to the paint but Barnes was early, sitting in the paint off of Haywood. That is the correct read to make.

Another example:

Herro flows into the PNR and has the drive, but the space is all packed. You have Barrett helping off completely off Rozier in the strong corner. He’s sitting in the dunker spot, as Herro is driving. He did start out on Haywood, which made sense, but the goal was still to show more help on the drives and force those looks.

There were plays like these too:

They look to feed Love in the post against a mismatch. He forces Boucher to come from behind and that’s a quick kick to Jaquez for 3pt. That is a good process and good shots.

But there were some makes that I wasn’t a fan of. It’s quick looks like these:

They run a Rozier-Adebayo PNR with no advantage, so the only thing left to do is swing the ball for a Pelle 3-point. Sure, it can be a good look at times, but any time you have multiple(they had a few misses off looks like this) 3s that come without breaking the 3-point line, that’s typically a poor process. That’s more settling than forcing the defense into making a decision. The defense has to give up something, and giving up a 3-point that is semi contested without inside-out approach, is a good thing.

But let’s also look at some of their misses to start the game. Starting off with their first 3-point of the game:

It’s a Herro-Adebayo handoff where Herro is able to reject the screen and gets a clean drive against a defense that is recovering. He looks to get a step on Poeltl, who’s defending the PNR, and notices Agbaji showing slight help off the corner. That’s an easy kick to Highsmith for the open look.

Their next 3pt was also good:

Initially, their offense wasn’t going anywhere. It again started with a Herro-Adebayo PNR but this time the Raptors defended that better with Poeltl being in a better position. There was that strong help from Walter that could’ve been a kick to Highsmith again one pass away but Herro was already ahead in the paint not looking at that window — see the difference from the clip earlier? That’s the exact kick Herro made later in the game. It flows into an Adebayo isolation in the post. He draws a dig from Barnes and it’s a kick one pass away to Duncan. That is a great shot for a great shooter.

Let’s look at the following 3-pointer. See the trend to start the game? They were getting good shots, despite that 2/17 shooting:

It’s another instance where both the offense and the defense were working to take away the initial advantage. The Heat continued to flow into other actions. It starts with a Duncan-Adebayo handoff, which gives Duncan a drive-kick. No advantage was there, so Herro flows into PNR with Highsmith. He slips and rolls draws the defense, Butler cuts to take Barrett, and it’s another kick to Duncan in the corner. Another great shot for a great shooter.

A lot of their misses came from good shots. Take this entire possession, where despite it being a broken play, they were able to generate two open 3s for Duncan:

Look at the ball movement that started with the initial drive-kick. The advantages are continued with the constant movement and driving. Adebayo collapsed the defense in the paint and it’s a kick to Duncan. They get the rebound and it’s another open shot.

That is just bad luck.

Overall, a lot of their 3s were coming from the defense taking everything away. You don’t want to be passing up open looks. The Raptors were determined to take everything away. There is a reason why they only scored 36 points in the paint and shot 56% at the rim. There was help every single time. For the most part, it was the correct decision to take a lot of the 3s that they took.

There were stretches, particularly with Rozier and the bench where the process was off. Those were the 3s that came as a result of not forcing the defense into doing anything but going for those quick 3s.