Will Adding a Star Next to Adebayo & Herro Make Them a Contender?
A discussion on if the Heat would be a contender with a star next to Bam & Herro
So, this has been a loud topic recently, whether it was to do with Kevin Durant, Trae Young, Anthony Edwards, or even Ja Morant — adding a start to the core of Herro and Adebayo.
I recently discussed how I believe the Heat are stuck in mediocrity:
And one main point has been that I don’t believe you can reasonably construct a contender with those two being two of your top three players considering their talent and contract. But it’s also the potential fit on the court that I’d still have questions for.
The main issue for the Heat in the Butler era has been that they haven’t had a guard that can effectively and consistently provide rim pressure, draw fouls, handle the ball at a high volume, and play make for others. The only time that they had was in the bubble after Goran Dragic had almost half a year off due to the shutdown.
Since then, they’ve been looking to get that star guard to pair with Butler but have come up short. This could’ve been James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, or Damian Lillard. Either of the three alongside Butler(who I’d have as the better overall player) would’ve made the core a legitimate contender.
Now the shift has turned into building around the improved Herro and Adebayo. I’ve seen many say that if things just lined up a bit more, then this could’ve been a contender earlier. Had Adebayo taken a step in creating his own shots at this level or had Herro taken this leap sooner, then this would’ve pushed them over the top.
That’s why there’s also now the conversation that if you simply replaced Butler with another top star i.e. Durant, Edwards, Morant, or Young, you’d not only be back to a contender but it would be better because those two are better players, especially if the package for the star isn’t as drastic as to gutting the team.
Unfortunately, despite the improvements from each player, I don’t believe that would be as simple as that, especially with the stars that would replace Butler. That firstly, has nothing to do with the core of Herro and Adebayo.
This might be a take, particularly when it comes to Durant, but I’d much rather have any of the Butler version that they had over any other realistic star. That is a quick conversation if it’s what Butler did in 2022. That was a legit top-5 level talent in the playoffs, which is almost a necessity to compete. That is the biggest puzzle piece that they won’t have that helps significantly more. That alone changes everything and not a lot can Herro, Adebayo, or the star that they could get will help that.
There’s no replacing that kind of elite talent. Any conversation around building a contender around these two now will have to remember that you likely won’t have a near-top 5 player in the playoffs.
Not entirely important to the piece but let me quickly remind you how dominant Butler was in the 2022 run.
He averaged 28.2 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists per 75 possessions on 54.1% eFG and 60.4% TS. He was third overall in EPM with +5.8 behind only Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry and second offensively at +5.2. For comparison, these are the top EPM in the playoffs since 2020:
Donovan Mitchell(2020): +7.3
Anthony Davis(2020): +7.3
Nikola Jokic(2023): +7.2
Damian Lillard(2021): +7.0
Stephen Curry(2022): +6.9
LeBron James(2020): +6.8
Jokic(2024): +6.4
James Harden(2020): +6.4
Joel Embiid(2024): +6.1
Luka Doncic(2022): +6.0
Embiid(2021) +5.9
Jimmy Butler(2022): +5.8
Donic(2021): +5.8
That kind of impact changes everything and it makes everything else easier for everyone else. That makes roster construction easier because you already have a player that has a ceiling that can go toe-to-toe with any best team.
But that’s also beside the point. You can still build a contender without such a player who has a bit of a lower ceiling. The only difference is that everyone else around them has to be better and fit better, where the sum is greater than the parts. That’s where things get trickier, both in terms of talent, fit, contracts, and assets needed to complete the team — this piece will more focus on the on-court stuff rather than any realism involving potential trades.
So, can you be on track to building a contender by adding a star to this core?
The Herro Equation
The biggest factor in answering that question has to do with Herro. The reason for that is because the offense has been centered around him. He has led the team in touches, usage, and scoring primarily on-ball.
That’s where the concerns come up if they were to acquire another ball handler, such as Young, Morant, or Edwards(again, not focusing on realism here) because they would take over such a role — there’s less of a concern with a wing but one that would still need to be addressed because of how it worked with Butler.
And I don’t believe that addition would be a seamless fit without a significant change in either of the player’s games, most likely Herro’s.
Firstly, in almost all cases, a contending team has to have a reliable ball handler who can pressure the rim, be a legitimate scorer on-ball in many ways(especially in isolation), and can playmake at a good enough level.
That’s where you see the ball handler being capable of being a creator or an engine for the offense — Morant, Young, Edwards, Brunson, Curry, Doncic, Shai, Harden, Mitchell, Fox, and Garland. Depending on the level of each of those guards play in certain areas, there would need to be more offensive firepower, though.
There are exceptions, but those exceptions also have outliers. The two that come to mind are the Celtics and the Nuggets. They don’t have guard play that could do what most of the guards above do for their team or lack certain traits that are basically a necessity. But they do either have a Jokic, Giannis, or wings like Tatum that are in a great system. For the most part, you need that high-level guard play — the better the wings/bigs, the less talented guards you can have.
So, the starting point is that I don’t think Herro leading the team in usage or touches as a primary ball handler can happen on a contending team — unless you swap Murray with him. But I don’t think that’s a hot take, nor don’t think many would disagree there but if you do then this does obviously change how you’d view the contender with another star or makes other routes more encouraging, like getting Durant.
But that’s not the point here, this is obviously why you’d bring in a better guard like Young or Edwards to be that guy, so he doesn’t have to. Now, the question comes more about the fit in that backcourt overall. That’s where the issues start to come up.
But before going into that, a big part that has to be addressed is simply the volume of touches. This is more to address the point about his previous seasons and how the Heat have made runs with him that had talent like Dragic or Butler because there was a big difference and it made some of the issues of fit less apparent or less significant.
Here are his touches per 36 and rank on the team:
2020: 58.4(5th)
2020 playoffs: 60.2(4th)
2021: 62.7(4th)
2021 playoffs: 57.7(4th)
2022: 72.1(tied 3rd)
2022 playoffs: 67.6(3rd)
2023: 67.5(3rd)
2024: 69.9(1st)
2024 playoffs: 69.1(1st)
2025: 74.1(1st)
That’s why making any comparison to the previous runs and the success that they had with him then and now that he’s better overall, that it should simply be better lacks the context of how much he was used then, which changes a lot.
There’s not going to be a big issue of fit if the player is coming off the bench, plays ~25 minutes, doesn’t play most of the minutes with the starters, and isn’t ranked high in touches.
Not only that is a factor, but it’s also the rotations that changed then versus now. That again was a very different situation that would be different if he was to play with Edwards or Young.
These are the minutes per game with Butler, Butler/Bam, Butler/Bam/Goran, and Butler/Bam/Kyle:
It wasn’t until 2023 that he even started to play considerably more minutes with Butler than not. Those numbers get smaller when you do include Adebayo or the lead guard on those teams. In the 2020 run, that four-man lineup with the best players was only seeing the court for eight minutes per game. In 2022, it was five.
Herro wasn’t featured with all the best players on the court and now he is. The fit was still better with Robinson, who didn’t have the ball to be effective in a much better way. In previous years, coming off the bench meant he wasn’t part of the main runs with the two best players. His sixth man of the year season where he did see an increase in his PNR game, usage, and touches was also one of the lowest minutes shared with the top players in the playoffs.
From 2020-2022, Herro with Butler in 2327 minutes, had a 22.1% usage. That jumped to 27.4% in 2967 minutes. In the playoffs, it was 21.6% in 803 minutes with Butler and 26.5% in 377 without him.
It wasn’t until the last three years that we saw the shift that he was leading the team in touches, playing with the best players the most, and also leading the team in usage even with Butler on. From 2023-2025, Herro with Butler in 2489 minutes had a 24.7% usage, which jumped to 28.4% without him in 3060 minutes.
This also coincided with the team struggling a lot more in the regular season, being a bottom-10 offense. And in 2023, when Butler went back to being berserk in the playoffs, Herro did end up missing the entire run.
All of this makes past results kind of irrelevant here because everything was different. Herro, as a player, may now be completely better but the reason they also went on runs was because he was used in such a role.
We are not going to see the first years of Herro with another star anymore in such a way that his usage drops significantly. We are not going to see him coming off the bench the way he had in two of the deep playoff runs. People seem to forget that when bringing up that they made a run with him then.
All of this means that if they do get a star next to him, the previous runs have no bearing on the future. They haven’t made a run or have been successful with this version of Herro. They haven’t made a run with him as a starter or as the guy who would either be first or second in touches.
Can it work? Maybe but that is a big question that we have little evidence of to answer it yet. Right now we just know that in low usage coming off the bench with limited time with the best players it worked. And looking at past teams that were in similar spots, that’s where I don’t really see a backcourt that features such players could be a contender. We’ve seen that with Lillard and McCollum having a ceiling.
This is also made potentially worse when you look at how he was used offensively and how that would translate with the increased usage and touches. The evidence that we do have or could play around with also points the other way.
A lot of the frequency is relatively the same and that’s kind of the issue. The way he generates an offense for himself has remained the same. The thing that has changed is just the raw volume.
Focusing on Herro’s PNR usage over the years:
2020: 4.2 possessions(30.3% freq)
2020 playoffs: 4.0(24.4%)
2021: 4.7(29.9%)
2021 playoffs: 3.0(27.3%)
2022: 6.9(32.8%)
2022 playoffs: 5.5(38.0%)
2023: 7.1(35.4%)
2024: 6.3(31.0%)
2024 playoffs: 7.8(40.6%)
2025: 7.4(33.7%)
And looking at his spot ups:
2020: 2.4(17.4%)
2020 playoffs: 3.6(21.8%)
2021: 3.2(20.2%)
2021 playoffs: 2.5(22.7%)
2022: 3.2(15.0%)
2022 playoffs: 2.6(18.5%)
2023: 3.8(18.9%)
2024: 2.8(13.9%)
2024 playoffs: 3.4(17.7%)
2025: 3.9(17.5%)
Herro has been a PNR-heavy player in pretty much each of his seasons. That has been his most used way of generating an offense. There’s also the overlap that comes with handoffs being another huge part of his game, that adds more to the on-ball creation. That has been the case throughout his career with the Heat regardless of who was on the team.
That’s also not entirely a bad thing, but if it’s to do with fit alongside other guards, it can be an issue.
He is a guard who needs the ball in his hands to be his most effective self, but there seems to be this idea that he’s this off-ball guard who can just slot in that role with ease if he has better talent. He’s had Butler being the primary engine. He’s played with Dragic as a rookie in the bubble. He also had Lowry. Three different players with the ball and he was still getting his offense in similar ways.
That notion that Herro will fit with any star because he has the potential skillset for such a role doesn’t translate, though because of how he uses his skills. His off-ball skill is being able to space the floor at an elite level and also come to get his offense through screens and handoffs. When it comes to fitting whilst other stars get theirs, that has been an issue with him being too stagnant or stationary. For many years, it did feel like my turn-your-turn. There’s a reason why many have said that his impact would be much greater if he did accept more of a Klay Thompson role, which would be entirely different.
Looking at his shot distribution, you can also see where that is the case. Here’s his % of shots coming as off the catch vs pull-ups:
There’s not a single time that he had more off-the-catch than off-dribble (should note that not all pull-ups are what you’d consider off-dribble or with the ball in his hands).
This is also not saying that he couldn’t work as an off-ball player or that it wouldn’t work period, but it can still bring those fit issues that we’ve seen elsewhere with two guards that need the ball and the solution is all in theory. He isn’t Harden or Young. Nor is this a question of ability. This is all about fit and buy in, which some people are already against because it would feel like putting him in a box.
So, unless all of that takes a significant change, I don’t see how adding another guard does anything to put them on track to be a contender.
There is a limit to what you’ll get out of simply more on-ball creation. If you already have a ball-dominant player(Young, Edwards, Morant) that would need to be the engine, there’s only so much that just better talent will give you. We’ve seen similar with Young and Murray or even Lillard and McCollum.
Adding more players on-ball players to pair with on-ball players, when one shouldn’t be in such a role at a high volume doesn’t tend to do well. Again, the conclusion is entirely different if you are much higher on what has Herro done this year in terms of his on-ball creation.
Outside of that, it’s either the volume, touches, minutes, or rotations that have to change. But that’s why I find it hard to construct a contender with a guard like this. One that does need the ball and would have fit issues with other guards. At this point in his career, I also don’t see the volume or the touches change significantly because what young All-Star does that?
Maybe there will be a change in the entire game, but seeing as what Herro has been in every single iteration of the Heat’s build that had very different players starting, and it’s all been relatively the same, then I find it hard to think it will.
Even the point that another ball handler will help him is something I find hard to see. Sure, it can help him start off-ball a bit more without needing to deal with the pressure. But the end result will continue to be him doing so at a high volume. That’s been the main issue for me in the last three years.
On the other end, I don’t see how the receiving guard will benefit as much either. The off-ball shooting and spacing will help. Having the defense worry about such a shooter is a luxury. But going back to the previous builds, there’s also a reason why the core of Butler-Adebayo benefited more with Robinson. I don’t see Herro raising the ceiling of other player’s impact either.
That is also why if they were to get a star guard, the best bet would be to move for pieces that fit better and also emphasize defense, which is a big point, too. That would be focusing on players with skills that add more to everyone else. It would be a better fit to have someone like Powell or White instead.
Overall, adding another ball-dominant player who could be capable of being the creator the Heat lacked, I don’t see the fit with Herro in the backcourt, especially given the contracts and what the cheaper alternative could be.
The Bam Equation
Now, this is just one-half of the equation. This was just the fit with Herro. There’s still Adebayo. That has fewer fit issues because of the very different positions they play. That alone eases up a lot of the issues that you may have with Herro.
Adebayo is still a big. He’s still in the role of setting screens, being a hub, and doing all of that work. Even with his increased self-creation over the years, that hasn’t gone to extreme levels that it hasn’t been already in the past. Even with more on-ball usage, that doesn’t get in the way of other on-ball guards or wings. And Adebayo is in such a position that will greatly benefit more from someone like Young than Herro may.
He can and should do all the things in the same way as has done with Dragic, Lowry, and Butler. His role doesn’t change as much, nor is it a role that hinders other on-ball players. There are no diminished returns here either. That’s simply because he’s a big.
Take the 2022 run where he still had 20% of his offense come from isolation or post-ups. That was also one of his most impactful playoff runs. Despite that usage, the Heat was +11.0 net with a 118.4 ORTG with both Butler and Adebayo on. That dropped to 104.6 without Adebayo. There have been these takes that Butler and Adebayo didn’t fit offensively yet they had great success on that end in the playoffs.
That’s why his issues come with how he does stuff rather than the role or volume itself.
There’s the constant trend of going away from the rim and being more of an isolation and post-up guy who hunts mid-ranges. It’s even apparent in his PNR game. That does hurt his effectiveness but it’s not an issue of fit.
Adebayo’s effectiveness, however, is a separate issue that would lower the team’s ceiling unless he changed that. It won’t matter if they that star either as a guard or a wing if he continues to play the way he’s had now. That’s not on fit or talent around him. My concerns with his game have little to do with who they may bring. That doesn’t really affect what’s been lacking in his impact offensively.
But he can’t be shooting near low 50% from 2pt. He can’t have such poor efficiency or such a poor shot diet. Related to that, there have been issues with shot selection and decision-making. All areas that have to do with his ability as separate issues.
It also is important to note that what separates Adebayo is the defensive side. My general view on team building is once you get your top guys that can be the offensive engine and pieces that fit around that, there’s a lot more emphasis on defense. If you have the stars, the rest of the role players(I do see Adebayo as a role player offensively) need to be a plus defensively.
That is still his way of having the most impact and it can be a game changer. This is what makes some of the offensive concerns a bit less glaring because he does make it up on the defensive end. He is so versatile and effective in different schemes and roles that there are not many players that can do that. That’s a big reason why he has graded out as having a positive impact despite not being elite offensively.
That alone changes everything in terms of his place on a contending team.
At the same time, if the Heat were going to look to be a contender with any other star, his offensive game would have to be addressed.
Would his game benefit tremendously from having Young or Morant? 100%. He would be getting so many open lobs and dumpoffs. But that also hasn’t been the only reason why his efficiency has dropped off. His issues don’t go away simply because of Young. That will have to change.
We also seen Adebayo in different roles that make sense despite all of that, particularly in 2023 where he did have one of the worst efficient runs. He can be used as a hub. He can simply be a screen and roll big. He is an athlete.
That doesn’t affect any other star in terms of fit.
The Third Star + the Team Equation
Finally, there is the star and the rest of the team that matters. I do want to touch on this briefly and how things would look beyond getting the star. What things would matter once they get the star and what concerns they may still have?
As mentioned at the start, a big piece that would be missing is someone of Butler’s caliber. That is important. That is needed on a championship-level team in most cases. Your margin of error and the realistic chance of building a team around everyone drops without that kind of talent.
This is why players like Young or even Mitchell, are to me players that make a lot more sense with players like Butler next to them. They all have their flaws and limitations that stop them from being in the upper tier of stars who can turn a team around by themselves.
That’s why the teams that are looking to be contenders with them have a drastically better team all around. They are surrounded by better talent to have a more rounded team.
So, if the Heat were to get either of the realistic players, they would still be behind the eight ball, especially if the package to get said player is significant. You would be putting yourself in a similar position as the team that traded them.
Any of the guards that they could realistically get would help significantly. You most often need those kinds of players period — that’s what the Heat lacked with Butler!
With Young, they would be getting one of the best offensive engines in the league that has been a walking top 5 offense since his rookie season. But he comes with so many limitations on both ends of the floor that need to be accommodated a lot, too.
He is even more of a ball-dominant player than any of the guards that the Heat had. He definitely is good at it, but that is a factor that needs to be considered.
The issues come with some of his scoring. I don’t think he can reliably be the best offensive engine and scorer on a contending team, especially by a good margin. He needs to have a partner, ideally, that is a wing that can provide that scoring boost — Butler really would’ve been perfect. Herro could be that scorer, but I fear you’d get something similar to what happened with Murray.
Then on the defensive end, there needs to be a lot to help him there. That also makes some of the issues with Herro more apparent because you’d need someone like Dyson Daniels next to him.
With Morant, although they are different players and have different strengths, I’d say they would require similar accommodations because of similar weaknesses.
But what if they went a different way and traded for someone like Durant? That would bring the issue of not having a reliable primary creator who can pressure the rim and score by himself. Rim pressure is needed. This would still have Herro as the best offensive guard and even if you had prime Lonzo Ball or White, the issues would remain the same with the team.
I’ve seen some takes that if you could come out with a lineup of Herro-Jovic-Durant-Ware-Adebayo, this would be a contender. But all I see are the same issues that they have not addressed. This would still be a team that struggles against playoff defenses significantly.
This may sound doom and gloom, but I don’t see the core being a contender unless they get a clear top 5 player that makes roster construction irrelevant. Everyone else brings their own flaws and weaknesses that have to be covered up that would be made worse by potential fit issues.
A big part of that is the backcourt. That is what stops me from thinking you would be on track to building a contender based on basketball and how to get said players considering contracts and assets.
If they were to move on from Herro by swapping him with someone like Young, that still wouldn’t be a contender but it would be one that can be solved better and easier because you don’t have to worry about fit.
So, will adding a star to the core put them on track to becoming a contender? Unless they get an all-time great, I don’t see that happening. It would make them better but they would find themselves in similar places those other teams were in.
A lot of that is due to the star available not being of such talent that can transform a team into a contender just like that. Unless they bring in Jokic, Giannis, or Luka… or a level below in Shai or Tatum, they’d still be a piece from it. That has less to do with either Herro or Adebayo but more about what it takes to build a contender. The Heat with Butler who had elevated his game to such a level were still a move away from doing so.
Without said talent, you simply need more talent elsewhere that also fits. The Knicks, Cavaliers, and Grizzlies would fall into that category where they don’t have the clear top 5 guys but have built a good enough foundation that is surrounded by so many players that fit and complete each other.
I don’t see that with any of the guards with Young/Edwards/Morant and that has to do with Herro. That’s the big issue for me basketball-wise. The runs that the Heat have made with Butler before had Herro in a completely different role at a much lower volume with different rotations. That changes everything now. The way those teams were successful was entirely different than simply saying imagine if they had this kind of Herro — sure, they’d probably be much better if he was the player he is now but in that role off the bench at that volume.
I’d still take any of the guards here for the right package because if you can get a player who could be a primary creator on a contending team, then you do it. In most cases, you need that kind of player(unless your best player is all of that). But that move would require more moves after that to continue to build out the roster and it would need to be fast. That would be putting your window in the next 3-4 years to address the weaknesses and flaws of those players.
So, no. They wouldn’t be a contender.